[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

So … what is the consensus on how far XMR is going to retrace from this current move to ~ .003 ?

More importantly, what do you think would happen if 1 or 2 Gh/s were added to our network?

A 2GH/s hashrate for Monero would require a ~80x increase in price and market cap if we assume no change in mining technology; namely still the same CPU / GPU mix.  So we would be looking at around 160 for XMR/USD and a market cap of around 2 billion USD, in order to support such an increase in hashrate.

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[americanpegasus]

So … what is the consensus on how far XMR is going to retrace from this current move to ~ .003 ?

More importantly, what do you think would happen if 1 or 2 Gh/s were added to our network?

A 2GH/s hashrate for Monero would require a ~80x increase in price and market cap if we assume no change in mining technology; namely still the same CPU / GPU mix.  So we would be looking at around 160 for XMR/USD and a market cap of around 2 billion USD, in order to support such an increase in hashrate.

[aminorex]

First intraday support band for XMR looks like 260k-270k range.  Second support 248k, and third support 228k.  Such a wild ride!

Of course on a daily or weekly basis, it's still in a confirmed uptrend.  That won't change any time soon unless it breaks all intraday support levels, hard, with a bullet, which is a <1% chance.

My guess is that we make new 2016 highs in August, somewhere between 500k and 600k. 

[TrueCryptonaire]

First intraday support band for XMR looks like 260k-270k range.  Second support 248k, and third support 228k.  Such a wild ride!

Of course on a daily or weekly basis, it's still in a confirmed uptrend.  That won't change any time soon unless it breaks all intraday support levels, hard, with a bullet, which is a <1% chance.

My guess is that we make new 2016 highs in August, somewhere between 500k and 600k. 

Dump expected?

[novag]

Hash Rate is rising Price too!

[generalizethis]

I'm titling this: Black Ops Money and Crypto-Nerds Cross Paths with Idea on the Table

[smoothie]

Hash Rate is rising Price too!

I believe from past experience hash rate follows price. Not the other way around.

[GingerAle]

Hash Rate is rising Price too!

I believe from past experience hash rate follows price. Not the other way around.

yeah and then we all know what happens after the hashrate spikes after a price spike, when all them opportunistic miners find themselves with boatloads of monero.....

[needmoney90]

Hash Rate is rising Price too!

I believe from past experience hash rate follows price. Not the other way around.

yeah and then we all know what happens after the hashrate spikes after a price spike, when all them opportunistic miners find themselves with boatloads of monero.....

.....pump?

[ArticMine]

Hash Rate is rising Price too!

I believe from past experience hash rate follows price. Not the other way around.

yeah and then we all know what happens after the hashrate spikes after a price spike, when all them opportunistic miners find themselves with boatloads of monero.....

.....pump?

More like dump. If there is a sudden sharp rise in the value of an asset, then there is typically a correction after the rise. This however has little to do with POW mining in general or Monero in particular.  

[tifozi]

First intraday support band for XMR looks like 260k-270k range.  Second support 248k, and third support 228k.  Such a wild ride!

Of course on a daily or weekly basis, it's still in a confirmed uptrend.  That won't change any time soon unless it breaks all intraday support levels, hard, with a bullet, which is a <1% chance.

My guess is that we make new 2016 highs in August, somewhere between 500k and 600k. 

Dump expected?

Normally I don't quote trolls like you, but ever since the aminorex/XMR bullish correlation was discovered a few months ago, I have to say this might be coming but not in a large scale this time around  . I don't think we revisit 250k at all again for any reason. Monero awareness is on the up and up ...

[CTTE]

Someone please explain the "aminorex/XMR bullish correlation" to me?  I've never heard of that particular Trend Analysis technique!

[Hueristic]

Someone please explain the "aminorex/XMR bullish correlation" to me?  I've never heard of that particular Trend Analysis technique!

#1 rule in CC

Never depend on a correlation or trend the markets are too small.

Do you think this would give you an edge? Lol

It would be used against you at the worst possible time. These people are pro's.

Damn I should stop with the free advice but I'm just too honest for my own good. I'd be rich if I was a sellout.

[nioc]

Someone please explain the "aminorex/XMR bullish correlation" to me?  I've never heard of that particular Trend Analysis technique!

When there is a bull run and aminorex makes supportive comments about it some people correlate that to a dump in the near future.

It may be true or it may be bias stemming from the fact that some people give credence to what he says as well as the fact that every bull run inevitably ends with a dump.

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first 

[Hueristic]

Someone please explain the "aminorex/XMR bullish correlation" to me?  I've never heard of that particular Trend Analysis technique!

When there is a bull run and aminorex makes supportive comments about it some people correlate that to a dump in the near future.

It may be true or it may be bias stemming from the fact that some people give credence to what he says as well as the fact that every bull run inevitably ends with a dump.

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first 

Listen to this guy, I've never seen anything but honest posts from him.

[bitebits]

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first 

If bitcoin would go to 300$ again, would this be enough news to have Monero 'moon' to 0.006?

[Hueristic]

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first 

If bitcoin would go to 300$ again, would this be enough news to have Monero 'moon' to 0.006?

I would say more like .005 but yes it is finally getting the respect it deserves. What lousy timing for me for ETH to fail at this point when I supported so many years and have divested all CC sans a few failed projects I tried to support. :|

[nioc]

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first  

If bitcoin would go to 300$ again, would this be enough news to have Monero 'moon' to 0.006?

That would be a real btc bear market so if that is the btc price I wouldn't count on that being the Monero price.  Ofc it depends on why.

I just remembered why I originally said September.  There is a hard fork scheduled for September.  The ever present dangling carrot of the GUI alluded to with the timely code words   which doesn't need a hard fork, as well as RingCT which will happen this year.  Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  A have a vague memory that it does and that it should be ready in time.

Edit:  to me Monero moon is predicated on Monero strength not btc weakness.

[Hueristic]

As far as aminorex's most recent prediction of 0.005>0.006 in August, I don't feel it without some other specific news.  Then again last month I said that something would happen in 3 months which is September so August is close.  I remind every one I know nothing.  Then again we all know something is happening "soon" or in 2 weeks, whichever comes first  

If bitcoin would go to 300$ again, would this be enough news to have Monero 'moon' to 0.006?

That would be a real btc bear market so if that is the btc price I wouldn't count on that being the Monero price.  Ofc it depends on why.

I just remembered why I originally said September.  There is a hard fork scheduled for September.  The ever present dangling carrot of the GUI alluded to with the timely code words   which doesn't need a hard fork, as well as RingCT which will happen this year.  Sorry but I forgot whether RingCT needs a hard fork.  A have a vague memory that it does and that it should be ready in time.

Edit:  to me Monero moon is predicated on Monero strength not btc weakness.

I believe he is speaking in relation to and assuming inverse proportionality with his question.

[aminorex]

If BTC were to drop to 300usd, which it won't do, but if, I would expect XMR to rise disproportionately. Depending on the reason and the time taken, 1200k seems more likely than 600k by dead reckoning.

You could easily use the historical moneyflows from ETH and from BTC in past plunges and crises to do a principled estimate, but since this is not a realistic scenario, I am not motivated to do it.  If there were an efficient options market, I would be tempted to do a lot of marginal scenario analyses.

I am pretty sure we'll see both XMR 400k and BTC 750$ within a month.  ETH support at 1500k has been tested twice but I still think it tests 1000k before the September hard fork.