[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

The monero network is still small and weak enough that it's vulnerable to an attack by the state, is it not?
It would cost the U.S. government peanuts to attack monero and crush it.

Do you think they dont have better work to do?  Like save the white whales or polar bears or something.

[Hueristic]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

[Dotto]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

Probably the most likely scenario would be better technology replacing XMR, or simply something like zcash that is better marketed and becomes mass adopted while XMR stagnates into nothing.

At the moment Zcash is mostly hot air with some serious design flaws.

The problem is the XMR community boiling in bullishness. The fall could be near

[Dotto]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

[Hueristic]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

When did you become bearish?

I have always just been honest.

[Hueristic]

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

If by reemplazable you meant replaceable as I think you did then of course, anything can be changed with a hard fork.

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

you are underestimating the amount of effort to build something like Cryptonote, it blows Zcash away, the darknet has spoken and its going with Monero.

about the curve, looks like you missed these commits.

A proposal to change to one of edwards twisted curves?  Has this been voted on? Set for a hard fork date? Ignored? Left to be implemented in a competing project? Which really brings up other questions along the lines of the ones I had that fluffy stopped answering.

[DaveyJones]

Implementation complete --> https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/4yik6w/finally_banned_by_circle_after_1_year/d6pl5ef

[DaveyJones]

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

If by reemplazable you meant replaceable as I think you did then of course, anything can be changed with a hard fork.

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

you are underestimating the amount of effort to build something like Cryptonote, it blows Zcash away, the darknet has spoken and its going with Monero.

about the curve, looks like you missed these commits.

A proposal to change to one of edwards twisted curves?  Has this been voted on? Set for a hard fork date? Ignored? Left to be implemented in a competing project? Which really brings up other questions along the lines of the ones I had that fluffy stopped answering.

Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

[aminorex]

Maybe the carping and bickering is more appropriate to the Monero Improvement thread.  

As regards speculation as to failure scenarios, the hardfork heartbeat implies that only problems which are not anticipated in time to be fixed by a hardfork can become existential threats.
In cases of fire the core have proven themselves by highly capable, responsive and proactive engagement in past scenarios.

The likelihood of stagnation seems pretty low, given the persistent improvement pattern and ongoing expansion of high-quality mindshare.  Certainly stagnation is always a possibility, in which case new hands would most likely take up the work, and bring the period of stagnation to an end, but even that soft failure mode ( really just a delay, and a degree of lost opportunity) seems less than probable, on the face of things.

I do wish smooth would show up more often here.  It is his thread and could benefit from his occasional attention.  But it's not like smooth was ever a big technical contributor, so I don't see his distraction as an indication of stagnation, but rather simply that his other interests make him a weaker core member than he could have been.

[Hueristic]

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

[phishead]

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

The only thing he is trying to say is if you honestly wanted to get in contact with fluffypony to answer a question, you are more likely to get his attention there since he doesn't spend that much time on bitcointalk. ... stop being so dramatic.

[Blazin8888]

Implementation complete --> https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/4yik6w/finally_banned_by_circle_after_1_year/d6pl5ef

wonder if AlphaBay will follow...that will be the big news IMO, also a confirmation of slap in the face to DASH community. - DNM depict what will be adopted as ANON currency. - users who need it more than anyone.

If this currency is truly private....I may truly have stumbled upon "Kryptonite" - pun intended

[DaveyJones]

...
Dude why don´t you just come up into the IRC and ask the questions directly, instead of hoping fluffy is tripping over them here. And if he is not there maybe someone else is capable of answering you

Tripping over them? What? We were in the middle of a conversation and I waited a week for him to answer before I even bumped it. XMR started here and it's where I go to talk about it. And apparently no-one else wanted to address the issue.

Stop acting like i kicked your dog, someone asked a question and I answered honestly. That is all I have done the years I have been posting here. I also prefer to have my questions answered in the main thread as it is a good repository I can search. I hate keeping logs.

The only thing he is trying to say is if you honestly wanted to get in contact with fluffypony to answer a question, you are more likely to get his attention there since he doesn't spend that much time on bitcointalk. ... stop being so dramatic.

phishead got it. It is not the first time you mentioned that he did not answer you question and that you were waiting... that is why i said if it urges you, IRC may help you to get your answer.
Besides as it is/are technical questions, wouldn´t they suit for http://monero.stackexchange.com/ ? So anyone who got the same question as you could possibly find an answer instead digging through one of the bigest altcoin threads.

[Hueristic]

I'm sorry forgot this is supposed to be XMR Pump thread.

/stops being dramatic :rolleyes:

[nioc]

OK couldn't help myself.  Just bought at 420.  Even though I have no use for that number or it's relations. 

[Hueristic]

OK couldn't help myself.  Just bought at 420.  Even though I have no use for that number or it's relations. 

420? what are you smoking!

[nioc]

I would if I could but I can't don't you know

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Is it just a coincidence that XMR broke through 430 the week after the SIGAINT announcement?

[owlcatz]

Is it just a coincidence that XMR broke through 430 the week after the SIGAINT announcement?

No.

[Anon136]

We're at $2.46 ... can we please not talk about $1000?

The most likely scenario is that XMR will fail.

How?

It looks to me like there will be a replacement as the development progress has slowed to a crawl. Not to mention Diffie-Hellman elliptic Curve25519 is considered not safe.

I no longer trust the constants. I believe the NSA has manipulated them through their relationships with industry
— Bruce Schneier

Should I continue?

You should continue... we are not cryptographers. Are you saying that they have a backdoor to XMR?. Is this curve reemplazable in a common hard fork?

Is there any evidence for this besides Schnier's conjecture?  There are other possible motivations for the the NSA trying to diminish ECC, see this comment https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2015/10/why_is_the_nsa_.html#c6709393

In his defense, I think the burden of proof has to rest on those who say its safe not those who say it isn't. "My ECC is safe" is the relevant positive assertion.