[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bucktotal]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

as a very long-term holder of btc and an early investor in xmr. at current prices, im sitting at ~75-20-5% btc-xmr-other.
is what is.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

Monero is still a very speculative coin. On the plus side it is one of the very few altcoins that have made a higher high than when trading started. While it is fun to consider $100 Monero remember that the September high of .0265 has to be taken out first and that is not going to be easy. 95% bitcoin to 5% Monero is a conservative ratio. I have a hard time recommending more because a reliable hardware wallet for Monero does not exist yet. Other than an official GUI release of a hardware wallet should drive price up.

[KeyJockey]

as a very long-term holder of btc and an early investor in xmr. at current prices, im sitting at ~75-20-5% btc-xmr-other.
is what is.

Thanks for posting... that's a little more aggressive/optimistic than where I am: I'm about 10-1 BTC to XMR still, even though my overall Monero position has long since left my overall Bitcoin returns in the dust, just thinking about maybe bumping it up to 15%-ish

Anyone else have suggested ratio they believe in?

P.S. One thing to consider just as a "fun thought" in my opinion is: the days of any ordinary average Joe being able to become a billionaire using just BITCOIN is long gone... if any cryptocurrency is ever going to achieve the Holy Grail of world domination and be valued at today's equivalent of $1 Million dollars purchasing power PER UNIT of coin, you'd need to have already stockpiled 1,000 bitcoins to see that happen.

Even back when bitcoins were only trading for $100 each, that would've been a commitment of the value of a small HOUSE, which most people cannot and should not attempt!!  And nowadays it's already requiring from a half million to a million dollars value, so yes a millionaire today can become a billionaire with just bitcoin now (and some out there may yet accomplish this, Risto? LOL) but it's clearly long been out of reach for just an average Joe.

But... with XMR even Joe Average *might* still be able to pull this off!! 

A thousand XMR is still "only" the value of a shitty used car... about $5000 to $10,000

Personally I'm not there yet (pretty far away, sadly) but I'm keeping it in mind IF ONLY somehow, soon enough, I may be able to stockpile 1,000 Moneroj...?

If so, *maybe* I still have a small shot at retirement as a crypto billionaire some day on my own private island somewhere LOL

[bucktotal]

the thing is, the ratio was much lower when i was accumulating the xmr. but then the price went up and my investment went up ~20x.  

similar to the early btc days, its hard to manage such changes in wealth distribution. BUT, and its a big but, i am trying to make the kind of investment in xmr as i would have done for btc if i had known what btc would have become, if that makes sense. so here we are after huge gains in xmrbtc and while i have reduced the ratio, im just not willing to part with such a huge lottery ticket. thats why i sort of say "is what is"... i'm trying to further reduce that ratio (as i do with btc-usd ratio), but if the xmr price keeps pushing upwards, its not the kind of train i want to miss out huge on (and im already set with the amount of btc). i probably would not invest that ratio of btc into xmr now, so i should probably reduce a little, but big risk big reward, etc...

[bitebits]

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher. [...]

Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero.

Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero.

Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders.


Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.

[phoenix rises]

Trading volume is down and in the mean time the daily trading range seems to get tighten. Soon there will be a breakup or breakdown. The odds for both are almost 50 % and what is left will be left for stability.

does your gut say up or down?

My gut says up as a result of BTC heading down. I think that is the fuel we are wiating for.

@KeyJockey -  thanks for your detailed review of the GUI. very cool  . Gonna wait for the compatable Daemon b4 trying the Windows version. Kinda glad I am at least experiencing the CLI version for a bit first too.

Btc probably more likely to up imo.... Bullish news from China

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-26/china-unveils-new-capital-controls-freezing-ma-frenzy

So, large Chinese corporations are now going to start buying BTC instead of doing multi-billion dollar overseas M&A deals now? Right. Smartest thing they could do would be to by ASIC producers and mining farms IMO. When that starts to happen then it is would have to agree that it is game on. Until then I remain unconvinced that the current China price premium is doing anything other than (correctly IMO) discounting the probability of further USD strength/Yuan devaluation.

The most surprising thing about this article is that ZH did not actually mention Gold and Bitcoin (or India!)

@bitebits : I see the logic in your theory, but it only holds as long as those BTC whales already own enough XMR to suppress the price, or can acquire enough to sell by borrowing/buying/mining, without affecting the price.
Otherwise you are left with a situaion where current XMR whales control the market, and may do exactly as you say in order to accumulate more, but there will be an order of magnitude more buyers trying to buy back in at those lower prices. So how low can it go? The recoil would be epic though if this played out!

[TrueCryptonaire]

BitcoinMeister speculates on Monero becoming number 2 crypto currency replacing Etherium.
He has been pretty accurate recently about Monero so perhaps this is good news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEpuSTJ8wE

[ArticMine]

BitcoinMeister speculates on Monero becoming number 2 crypto currency replacing Etherium.
He has been pretty accurate recently about Monero so perhaps this is good news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEpuSTJ8wE

What I found really interesting was the introduction by O'Brien Makore. He is a young enthusiastic Bitcoin supporter in Zimbabwe who believes that Bitcoin can help the people of his country. The reality is very different: If even a small percentage of the population of Zimbabwe actually use Bitcoin the Bitcoin blockchain with its 1 MB blocksize limit will grind to a halt. Wait a minute blockchain.info is showing over 80 K unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions at the time of this post. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

[CoinCidental]

BitcoinMeister speculates on Monero becoming number 2 crypto currency replacing Etherium.
He has been pretty accurate recently about Monero so perhaps this is good news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNEpuSTJ8wE

What I found really interesting was the introduction by O'Brien Makore. He is a young enthusiastic Bitcoin supporter in Zimbabwe who believes that Bitcoin can help the people of his country. The reality is very different: If even a small percentage of the population of Zimbabwe actually use Bitcoin the Bitcoin blockchain with its 1 MB blocksize limit will grind to a halt. Wait a minute blockchain.info is showing over 80 K unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions at the time of this post. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

Only 2800 unconfirmed on my node, no big deal....
Roll on larger blocks!

[iCEBREAKER]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO.

XMR clearly has more long-term upward potential, from this current sub-$10 that really IMHO should already be $50-$100, and maybe even better short-term upward potential with possibly less downside too.

So, logically if true, that'd mean "all in" on ONLY XMR would be best, but I somehow can't bring myself to completely abandon Honey Badger either LOL

I still hold more bitcoin than anything else but my ratio of XMR/BTC probably really SHOULD be higher. 

Just can't really decide how much is "correct" lately

Long live The Honey Badger!   

Don't overthink the initial allocation.  Just go 50/50 Bitcoin/Monero.

The hard part comes later, when you must use sound judgement and self-discipline to reallocate, diversify, and rebalance.

Right before the price explosion, I sold off my beloved technologically interesting but less socially/economically viable coins (ETH, XPM, XCN, BBR, XDN, VIA) and went 50/50 BTC/XMR.

Best move I've ever made.  But now I am entirely unable to bring myself to rebalance my completely lopsided allocation.

That's because I see Monero becoming what Bitcoin is now (worth ~$750).  And this time I'm not going to sell out too early.

Thanks to the benevolence of the Moon Goddess, the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for less than $8 is here again; act (and hodl) accordingly.

[KeyJockey]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO...

Don't overthink the initial allocation.  Just go 50/50 Bitcoin/Monero.

The hard part comes later, when you must use sound judgement and self-discipline to reallocate, diversify, and rebalance.

Ha... yeah, but see?  That's the thing!  This ISN'T my initial allocation.  My first Monero buys cost me in the 70-cents each range, over two years ago.

That's what I meant when I said that XMR has blown the doors off on my bitcoin ROI so far.  

For Bitcoin to have done as well as Monero's done, in the last two years?  It'd already have to be about $5,000 per coin

Thanks to the benevolence of the Moon Goddess, the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for less than $8 is here again; act (and hodl) accordingly.

Right, but again I agree, but IF ONLY we could *know* that was TRUE for sure, then obviously the right thing to do would be ALL-IN NOW on only XMR!!!

I have this feeling in my gut that'd *really* quite possibly be the RIGHT thing to DO, right NOW, but... but but but... aaaaaaa.... Honey Badger!  Just can't *quite* bring myself to DO it.... LOL

[iCEBREAKER]

The harder decision for me lately has been what percentage of overall crypto to keep in BITCOIN versus MONERO...

Don't overthink the initial allocation.  Just go 50/50 Bitcoin/Monero.

The hard part comes later, when you must use sound judgement and self-discipline to reallocate, diversify, and rebalance.

Ha... yeah, but see?  That's the thing!  This ISN'T my initial allocation.  My first Monero buys cost me in the 70-cents each range, over two years ago.

That's what I meant when I said that XMR has blown the doors off on my bitcoin ROI so far.  

For Bitcoin to have done as well as Monero's done, in the last two years?  It'd already have to be about $5,000 per coin

Thanks to the benevolence of the Moon Goddess, the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for less than $8 is here again; act (and hodl) accordingly.

Right, but again I agree, but IF ONLY we could *know* that was TRUE for sure, then obviously the right thing to do would be ALL-IN NOW on only XMR!!!

I have this feeling in my gut that'd *really* quite possibly be the RIGHT thing to DO, right NOW, but... but but but... aaaaaaa.... Honey Badger!  Just can't *quite* bring myself to DO it.... LOL

OK so you've done very well with XMR ROI, which indicates the trend is Monero's friend.

We can't with metaphysical certainty *know* the future "for sure."

But we can recognize when we've seen this movie before (history doesn't repeat but it rhymes).

The Cryptonote white paper gave me a tingle not felt since Satoshi's original.

And Monero's follow up implementation over its first 2.5 years has been equally as impressive as Bitcoin's early life.

Sure, Monero doesn't have the first mover advantage nor Lindy effect of Bitcoin.

But Monero covers use cases Bitcoin does not, as well as enjoying overlap and potential overflow.

So why not start moving towards a 50/50 allocation, which balances respect for Honey Badger with recognition of Wild & Free Monero Mustang potential?

No matter how many Bitcoins I acquired (actually mined not bought but whatever) when it was 70 cents, I'd still love to time travel back to the $8 range and buy MOAR.   

Look forwards, not backwards.  Don't drive with the rear-view mirror (unless you are in reverse).

[Aby Normal]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos 
Been accumulating Moneroj since 2014 and been all in most of the time since then, had only 0.5BTC back then which I used to buy 250XMR first day it appeared on polo, all cryptos I have now I've made by trading over past 2.5 years, haven't bought a single satoshi/tacoshi with fiat. Today besides bit more than 5K XMR I have only 300 XMR worth of BTC and 300 XMR worth of BBR, would have 1K XMR more if I haven´t slipped on a banana while juggling with more than half of my Moneroj stash around 900k sats (got Jaxxed). And I never send more than 30% (trading funds) to the marketplace except for when I get scared - then I end up just like this nuttcase 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kM3uNMXrFMI

[iCEBREAKER]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos 

Thanks to the 1000% appreciation, I'm now around 90% Monero, 10% Bitcoin.

Feels good man.   

[ArticMine]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  
Been accumulating Moneroj since 2014 and been all in most of the time since then, had only 0.5BTC back then which I used to buy 250XMR first day it appeared on polo, all cryptos I have now I've made by trading over past 2.5 years, haven't bought a single satoshi/tacoshi with fiat. Today besides bit more than 5K XMR I have only 300 XMR worth of BTC and 300 XMR worth of BBR, would have 1K XMR more if I haven´t slipped on a banana while juggling with more than half of my Moneroj stash around 900k sats (got Jaxxed). And I never send more than 30% (trading funds) to the marketplace except for when I get scared - then I end up just like this nuttcase  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kM3uNMXrFMI

No you are not. I sold the bulk of my remaining XBT for a mix of XMR and CAD over 15 months ago over the 1 MB blocksize issue. I have not regretted that decision at all.

[Luxo]

Bought Monero with half of my savings around march 2016 by fiat->btc->xmr. Decided to buy XMR after watching some Monero videos and believing that the technology was the real deal. How the devs made it clear that their priority was on improving and developing XMR made me quite confident in buying XMR. I was just scared of it not getting enough exposure and dying because of that but with the DNM adoption, it was gone. My confidence in XMR increased because it had passed the stage of some exposure and after the correction price of the DNM adoption, turned my remaining savings into XMR. To note that I am only a university student and only had some part time/contract jobs which I usually save as I don't like to spend my money unwisely.

I frankly do not see why I would buy BTC and hold with the current problems it has and which Monero has most likely already solved from what I've read.
Just need some patience for RingCT, GUI, hardware wallets and more project adoption. It will be an awesome sight to see as the community and Monero grows.

I am another 90% XMR dude trying to find the opportunity to buy some more cheap monero with my remaining BTC.

Do I have any regret? Yes. It is to not have bothered to work full time during my prior summers to buy more XMR. I'd probably have done the same thing but with more money

[TrueCryptonaire]

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher. [...]

Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero.

Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero.

Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders.


Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.

The only way a bitcoin whale can drive the price of Monero down is to open a significiant short position. The problem with that strategy is the interest payments which might be significiant in large position and the fact the whale is "underwater" when he start buying Moneros (he has to cover the short first).
Therefore, the way a whale should play the game in my opinion is to accumulate some, then accelerate the accumulation which drives the price up but also increases the netwealth of a whale. Bear in mind, when the whale drives the price of Monero up his stake in Monero grows as well.
The only problem a whale might face is the whale competition.

[ozkraut]

It is possible to drive the price of Monero up by accelerating its demand. It is in the best interest of a large holder(s) to drive the price up since it is relatively cheap way to inflate the wealth of a Monero whale. And the rising price will attract more people into Monero which will further drive the price of Monero higher. [...]

Interesting line of thought. This argument however only flies when the whales are already owning their stake in Monero.

Because of the recent pump, Monero got on the radar of a number of new people. Surely some of them being Bitcoin whales. These whales obviously want to pay as less bitcoin as they can for their admired stake in Monero.

Now their problem is that the price still is more than 5x the price before the recent pump (+0.01 btc instead of 0.002 btc, even worse in terms of dollars). Therefore I expect a constant xmr/btc price pressure applied for the next six to twelve months, especially with a still bullish Bitcoin after it's painfully long bear market. Whales are way more patient and experienced than average Joe traders.


Disclaimer: I have my fair Monero share so I don't care much, except for the fact that I might currently be a bit over-exposed in Monero because of the recent rise in price.

The only way a bitcoin whale can drive the price of Monero down is to open a significiant short position. The problem with that strategy is the interest payments which might be significiant in large position and the fact the whale is "underwater" when he start buying Moneros (he has to cover the short first).
Therefore, the way a whale should play the game in my opinion is to accumulate some, then accelerate the accumulation which drives the price up but also increases the netwealth of a whale. Bear in mind, when the whale drives the price of Monero up his stake in Monero grows as well.
The only problem a whale might face is the whale competition.

And of course the inability to pareto out addresses by their holdings / chain analysis to see how many whales 'may' exist and where the center of gravity is. Risky eh? Can't see eh? Hmmmmmm

Monero works in mysterious ways (;-)

[bitebits]

[...]
Monero works in mysterious ways (;-)

There is nothing mysterious about privacy.

[Febo]

Am I the only nutcase here with 90% XMR out of total 60BTC worth of cryptos  

You are not simply because soon after BTC will moon Monero will follow.

If you are expert trader, then yes is wize to also hold Bitcoin. If you are not and you would miss the time when BTC moons and buy Monero at that time with all your BTC, then is totally fine to have mainly XMR.