[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

...

I'm with you on being bearish on Bitcoin.  Even though it might go up in the next year or two, I can't stand using it.  I transferred some BTC from Polo to Circle pay today and it took over 2.5 hours for it to show up in my Circle account.  There is no way that will be adopted mainstream if that continues to be the case.  We want instant gratification, and results.

With that said, how quickly does XMR transactions settle?  I'm bullish on it from a trading perspective but don't have good technical comprehension of the specs.  

Monero has average 2 min blocks vs Bitcoin 10 min blocks so Monero does give a finer grains as to the number of confirmations to accept. "Settle" is in the eye of the recipient as to how many confirmations they accept. I have seen 15 for Monero so around 30 min, The issue with Bitcoin is that network is overloaded so it can take a while to get the first confirmation. My understanding is that Circle requires 4 confirmations for Bitcoin so in theory around 40 min; however since the network is overloaded it can take 2 hours to get the first confirmation ( I have heard of people waiting a day)  hence the 2.5 hour wait time.

The key technical difference here is that Monero can scale the blocksize to meet transaction demand while Bitcoin with its fixed 1 MB blocksize cannot.

Edit: Bitcoin currently has over 110,000 unconfirmed transactions. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions.  It is hardly surprising that people have to wait a while for the first confirmation.

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero has average 2 min blocks vs Bitcoin 10 min blocks so Monero does give a finer grains as to the number of confirmations to accept. "Settle" is in the eye of the recipient as to how many confirmations they accept. I have seen 15 for Monero so around 30 min, The issue with Bitcoin is that network is overloaded so it can take a while to get the first confirmation. My understanding is that Circle requires 4 confirmations for Bitcoin so in theory around 40 min; however since the network is overloaded it can take 2 hours to get the first confirmation ( I have heard of people waiting a day)  hence the 2.5 hour wait time.

The key technical difference here is that Monero can scale the blocksize to meet transaction demand while Bitcoin with its fixed 1 MB blocksize cannot.
1
Edit: Bitcoin currently has over 110,000 unconfirmed transactions. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions.  It is hardly surprising that people have to wait a while for the first confirmation.

This analyses neglects the order(s) of magnitude difference in the networks' relative strength.

The Bitcoin network's PoW is backed by ASICs consuming more power than Bangladesh.

Monero's CPUs and GPUs might be using a medium sized city's worth of electricity.

So we can't do a valid minute to minute (apples to apples) comparison, because it would be tremendously easier to attack and orphan/reorder an hour's worth of Monero's blocks than Bitcoin's.

And regardless of today's Cosmic Background Spam level, Bitcoin is not "overloaded" so long as competitive fees prioritize their tx accordingly.  Such panicky Chicken Little rhetoric has been thoroughly rubbished by the socioeconomic majority, and is now relegated to being the subject of mirth and contempt.

Monero does not (nor should ever) unflinchingly accept every bit of data people wish to store on its blockchain.

It is a distinction without a difference to dwell on the fact Monero's block size cap is flexible rather than static like Bitcoin's, because both approaches ultimately exclude marginal (IE priced out) use cases.

This is due to Monero's block reward penalty for increased size, a feature that Bitcoin lacks and cannot implement without also adding a tail emission, which is practically impossible due to Bitcoin's wholly intentional eschewance of contentious hard forks.

[kurious]

About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.

- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long

It has been over two weeks now since your call so I wanted to revisit this one...

XMR was about 0.0085 BTC when you posted that.  It has been bouncing off that level and headed higher ever since, no big dumps or capitulations in sight.

Do you maintain your bearish medium-term outlook?  Should we be selling into this "strength"?  What was the reason behind your original call?  Are you just looking at technical analysis or is there something more specific behind it?

Somebody is dumping Monero down - did you wake him up?

[volyova]

Has this scam-clone got a gui wallet yet?

[kurious]

Has this scam-clone got a gui wallet yet?

Sweet of you to drop by Volyova.  

In answer, not quite - we still have our heads firmly in the sand though, just like your new avatar, it seems.

We have a GUI you can compile yourself which functions - but it's waiting for a daemon update to be a GUI which is idiot proof.

TLDR?

Soon™

[KeyJockey]

Has this scam-clone got a gui wallet yet?

Sweet of you to drop by Volyova...  

OMG, LOL... "scam clone" and harping on the GUI? 

If this is all the trolls have to work with any more I think we're in great shape guys... LOL

[owlcatz]

Has this scam-clone got a gui wallet yet?

Sweet of you to drop by Volyova...  

OMG, LOL... "scam clone" and harping on the GUI? 

If this is all the trolls have to work with any more I think we're in great shape guys... LOL

Off topic, but this gave me a chuckle. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg17021307#msg17021307

[TrueCryptonaire]

Dear con artists and other thieves,

It appears 0.01 holds pretty well with this scammy shitcoin. 

[johnsmithx]

Off topic, but this gave me a chuckle. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg17021307#msg17021307

Totally untrue that Monero is mined entirely by botnets, I know at least 1 person who is not a bot.

[rpietila]

About 12-14 more days, and then capitulation near 0.0044. When that has happened, I'll tell if it was the last chance to buy low, or whether there'll be a double bottom later, confirming the new trading zone to be above 0.0042.

- Accumulate near 0.006 if you are totally out now
- Do not touch 0.005-0.006 (falling knife)
- Buy at the capitulation area in 0.004-0.005
- If it dips below 0.004, margin long

It has been over two weeks now since your call so I wanted to revisit this one...

XMR was about 0.0085 BTC when you posted that.  It has been bouncing off that level and headed higher ever since, no big dumps or capitulations in sight.

Do you maintain your bearish medium-term outlook?  Should we be selling into this "strength"?  What was the reason behind your original call?  Are you just looking at technical analysis or is there something more specific behind it?

Somebody is dumping Monero down - did you wake him up?

I think you can as well buy now.

[owlcatz]

Off topic, but this gave me a chuckle. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg17021307#msg17021307

Totally untrue that Monero is mined entirely by botnets, I know at least 1 person who is not a bot.

I know, I just thought it was funny that he posted that over on the dash thread. I not a bot either, I mine xmr long time, over 2 years now!

[astmandu]

Monero has average 2 min blocks vs Bitcoin 10 min blocks so Monero does give a finer grains as to the number of confirmations to accept. "Settle" is in the eye of the recipient as to how many confirmations they accept. I have seen 15 for Monero so around 30 min, The issue with Bitcoin is that network is overloaded so it can take a while to get the first confirmation. My understanding is that Circle requires 4 confirmations for Bitcoin so in theory around 40 min; however since the network is overloaded it can take 2 hours to get the first confirmation ( I have heard of people waiting a day)  hence the 2.5 hour wait time.

The key technical difference here is that Monero can scale the blocksize to meet transaction demand while Bitcoin with its fixed 1 MB blocksize cannot.
1
Edit: Bitcoin currently has over 110,000 unconfirmed transactions. https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions.  It is hardly surprising that people have to wait a while for the first confirmation.

This analyses neglects the order(s) of magnitude difference in the networks' relative strength.

The Bitcoin network's PoW is backed by ASICs consuming more power than Bangladesh.

Monero's CPUs and GPUs might be using a medium sized city's worth of electricity.

So we can't do a valid minute to minute (apples to apples) comparison, because it would be tremendously easier to attack and orphan/reorder an hour's worth of Monero's blocks than Bitcoin's.

And regardless of today's Cosmic Background Spam level, Bitcoin is not "overloaded" so long as competitive fees prioritize their tx accordingly.  Such panicky Chicken Little rhetoric has been thoroughly rubbished by the socioeconomic majority, and is now relegated to being the subject of mirth and contempt.

Monero does not (nor should ever) unflinchingly accept every bit of data people wish to store on its blockchain.

It is a distinction without a difference to dwell on the fact Monero's block size cap is flexible rather than static like Bitcoin's, because both approaches ultimately exclude marginal (IE priced out) use cases.

This is due to Monero's block reward penalty for increased size, a feature that Bitcoin lacks and cannot implement without also adding a tail emission, which is practically impossible due to Bitcoin's wholly intentional eschewance of contentious hard forks.

I appreciate your and ArticMine's responses.  I'm very impressed with your technical knowledge...I could impress with legal theory...but it's irrelevant to the masses.  I count myself among the masses who just want something to work...we don't care about the technical elegance, Segwit, BU, etc.  I don't expect Bitcoin to replace Paypal.  Who knows where things will go...that's why we're speculating.  In the end, Bitcoin has first mover advantage but so did MySpace.  I hope Monero and a few other notables continue to challenge it. 

[Febo]

I'm with you on being bearish on Bitcoin.  Even though it might go up in the next year or two, I can't stand using it.  I transferred some BTC from Polo to Circle pay today and it took over 2.5 hours for it to show up in my Circle account.  There is no way that will be adopted mainstream if that continues to be the case.  We want instant gratification, and results.

With that said, how quickly does XMR transactions settle?  I'm bullish on it from a trading perspective but don't have good technical comprehension of the specs. 

Since the Monero network is far less secure than Bitcoin's, you must wait proportionally longer for the same degree of confirmation reliability (ie irreversibility) .

Let's very generously assume Monero has 10% of Bitcoin's blockchain security/immutability (best way to measure the different PoW is probably by how much electricity each consumes).  6 confirmations are recommended for Bitcoin so at 10 minutes each that's 1 hour.  Now multiply that by 10 to account for Monero's relative strength, and we get 6 hours.

That number is way out. Monero network is less secure then Bitcoin, but is also less worth so attacking it would bring less profit and is less likely to be attacked.

6 bitcoin confirmations is quite a bit. I think 4 are more then enough.  One Monero block takes 2 minutes so in 40 minutes that Bitcoin should have 4 confirmations, Monero will have 20.

[smoothie]

I'm with you on being bearish on Bitcoin.  Even though it might go up in the next year or two, I can't stand using it.  I transferred some BTC from Polo to Circle pay today and it took over 2.5 hours for it to show up in my Circle account.  There is no way that will be adopted mainstream if that continues to be the case.  We want instant gratification, and results.

With that said, how quickly does XMR transactions settle?  I'm bullish on it from a trading perspective but don't have good technical comprehension of the specs.  

Since the Monero network is far less secure than Bitcoin's, you must wait proportionally longer for the same degree of confirmation reliability (ie irreversibility) .

Let's very generously assume Monero has 10% of Bitcoin's blockchain security/immutability (best way to measure the different PoW is probably by how much electricity each consumes).  6 confirmations are recommended for Bitcoin so at 10 minutes each that's 1 hour.  Now multiply that by 10 to account for Monero's relative strength, and we get 6 hours.

That number is way out. Monero network is less secure then Bitcoin, but is also less worth so attacking it would bring less profit and is less likely to be attacked.

6 bitcoin confirmations is quite a bit. I think 4 are more then enough.  One Monero block takes 2 minutes so in 40 minutes that Bitcoin should have 4 confirmations, Monero will have 20.

So basically there is a ratio of "attack-ability" to "reward".

The cost and reward of attacking.

But there also exists some who may not want a reward monetarily from attacking say Monero.

The reward may come from devaluing another crypto because of its "insecurity" in network hash by attacking it purely to create short-term chaos.

Direct and indirect "rewards" exist.

[ArticMine]

Interesting article on how the Bitcoin Lighting Network can fail. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/here-s-how-bitcoin-s-lightning-network-could-fail-1467736127 One of the possible solutions: An adaptive blocksize limit.

For one, an adaptive block size limit could allow miners to increase capacity in these sorts of failure scenarios.

Enough said.

[Luxo]

I have a good gut feeling about all this. In a month or two, when XMR will go up I believe there will be plenty of FOMO making the price go up fast like how it did during the DNM announcement.

Hope it happens

[iCEBREAKER]

I'm with you on being bearish on Bitcoin.  Even though it might go up in the next year or two, I can't stand using it.  I transferred some BTC from Polo to Circle pay today and it took over 2.5 hours for it to show up in my Circle account.  There is no way that will be adopted mainstream if that continues to be the case.  We want instant gratification, and results.

With that said, how quickly does XMR transactions settle?  I'm bullish on it from a trading perspective but don't have good technical comprehension of the specs. 

Since the Monero network is far less secure than Bitcoin's, you must wait proportionally longer for the same degree of confirmation reliability (ie irreversibility) .

Let's very generously assume Monero has 10% of Bitcoin's blockchain security/immutability (best way to measure the different PoW is probably by how much electricity each consumes).  6 confirmations are recommended for Bitcoin so at 10 minutes each that's 1 hour.  Now multiply that by 10 to account for Monero's relative strength, and we get 6 10 hours.

That number is way out. Monero network is less secure then Bitcoin, but is also less worth so attacking it would bring less profit and is less likely to be attacked.

6 bitcoin confirmations is quite a bit. I think 4 are more then enough.  One Monero block takes 2 minutes so in 40 minutes that Bitcoin should have 4 confirmations, Monero will have 20.

Where are you getting this "4 are more then enough" idea?  I guess that's true if you are buying a Frappuchino or Doritos.  But "freshly-mined coins cannot be spent for 100 blocks."

Whoops, I screwed up editing and should have said "10 hours" not "6 hours" (assuming Monero's PoW is 10% as effective as Bitcoin's).

Yes, I know the number is "way out."  It was merely illustrative approximation, as I cannot be arsed to look up and extrapolate from current actual figures.   

The phrase "very generously assume" indicates Monero's PoW network strength is probably not even remotely close to 10% of Bitcoin's.

The actual figure is probably closer to 1%, so we're looking at 100 hours for XMR settlement security equivalent to 6 Bitcoin confs.

You and ArcticMine don't seem to be grokking the concept that 40 minutes of 100 megawatt XMR PoW is in no way equivalent to 40 minutes of 10 gigawatt BTC PoW.

That's basic high school physics.

Fixating on a side issue, that of direct economic incentives (cost/benefit) for attackers, is a distraction and spurious digression.

Speculating about motivations is in this context (answering astmandu's question about XMR settlement time) not helpful.

As smoothie pointed out, there exist infinitely more indirect incentives than the most naive possible direct monetary one.

The best example of indirect, non-monetary incentives is "I did it for the LULZ."   

Regardless of our hypothetical adversary's incentive and motivation, attacking and orphaning 40 minutes worth of Bitcoin blocks would be roughly 100 times harder than doing the same to Monero.  And that fact is reflected in their 100:1 market cap ratio.

So a good estimate of XMR settlement times must account for that vast (albeit rapidly shrinking) difference in the quality of the two coins' PoW.

The Work in Proof of Work is measured by the amount of electrical power consumed to produce a confirmation, not mere passage of time.

[ArticMine]

...

That number is way out. Monero network is less secure then Bitcoin, but is also less worth so attacking it would bring less profit and is less likely to be attacked.

6 bitcoin confirmations is quite a bit. I think 4 are more then enough.  One Monero block takes 2 minutes so in 40 minutes that Bitcoin should have 4 confirmations, Monero will have 20.

Where are you getting this "4 are more then enough" idea?  I guess that's true if you are buying a Frappuchino or Doritos.  But "freshly-mined coins cannot be spent for 100 blocks."

Whoops, I screwed up editing and should have said "10 hours" not "6 hours" (assuming Monero's PoW is 10% as effective as Bitcoin's).

Yes, I know the number is "way out."  It was merely illustrative approximation, as I cannot be arsed to look up and extrapolate from current actual figures.  

The phrase "very generously assume" indicates Monero's PoW network strength is probably not even remotely close to 10% of Bitcoin's.

The actual figure is probably closer to 1%, so we're looking at 100 hours for XMR settlement security equivalent to 6 Bitcoin confs.

You and ArcticMine don't seem to be grokking the concept that 40 minutes of 100 megawatt XMR PoW is in no way equivalent to 40 minutes of 10 gigawatt BTC PoW.

That's basic high school physics.

Fixating on a side issue, that of direct economic incentives (cost/benefit) for attackers, is a distraction and spurious digression.

Speculating about motivations is in this context (answering astmandu's question about XMR settlement time) not helpful.

As smoothie pointed out, there exist infinitely more indirect incentives than the most naive possible direct monetary one.

The best example of indirect, non-monetary incentives is "I did it for the LULZ."  

Regardless of our hypothetical adversary's incentive and motivation, attacking and orphaning 40 minutes worth of Bitcoin blocks would be roughly 100 times harder than doing the same to Monero.  And that fact is reflected in their 100:1 market cap ratio.

So a good estimate of XMR settlement times must account for that vast (albeit rapidly shrinking) difference in the quality of the two coins' PoW.

The Work in Proof of Work is measured by the amount of electrical power consumed to produce a confirmation, not mere passage of time.

The biggest risk with the number of confirmations is not a 51% attack but natural chain reorganizations. This is depended on block time rather than the overall effective hash rate. The figures of 3-4 confirmations (Bitcoin) / 15 confirmations (Monero) are fairly typical in the industry.

For Bitcoin 0 confirmations is now a extremely high risk because there is a significant chance the transaction could be delayed for some time or even not mined at all. A simple "double spend" attack in this case is for the sender resend the transaction with a much higher fee, while the transaction is still unconfirmed.

Edit: Or simply send the transaction with a slightly sub optimal fee. Then  there is a significant chance that the transaction is not mined at all, and there is no explicit "fraud" action of sending the second double spend transaction. This could make a criminal case for fraud very difficult if not impossible because of the need to prove intent. I suspect the current spam attack on the Bitcoin network is based on this premise. The spammer is counting on the fact that the vast majority of the spam transactions will never be mined.

[johnsmithx]

Off topic, but this gave me a chuckle. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg17021307#msg17021307

Totally untrue that Monero is mined entirely by botnets, I know at least 1 person who is not a bot.

I know, I just thought it was funny that he posted that over on the dash thread. I not a bot either, I mine xmr long time, over 2 years now!

Good, now I know 2 non-bot miners. We should start a club

[volyova]

Has this scam-clone got a gui wallet yet?

Sweet of you to drop by Volyova.  

In answer, not quite - we still have our heads firmly in the sand though, just like your new avatar, it seems.

We have a GUI you can compile yourself which functions - but it's waiting for a daemon update to be a GUI which is idiot proof.

TLDR?

Soon™

Oh, thanks for your kind reply!