[XMR] Monero Speculation

[spirali]

I was thinking of total supply in the other reason I mentioned:

- smaller supply (is there any estimations when XMR will over come BTC's supply?)

But thanks for all the info. Also interesting link, thanks!

Oh I see... I knew I read that and I knew I could find the answer (because I asked myself the same question in the past) but I quoted another sentence when I replied and I started from there 

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[smooth]

Apparently Bulletproofs can reduce the average tx from 15kb to something like 1.5kb-3kb which is still slightly larger than Bitcoin's 0.5kb but definitely a significant improvement. Would something like RuffCT/StringCT reduce that even more?

As currently envisioned that would increase the ring size (so better privacy) without increasing the TX size but wouldn't significantly reduce the tx size. There might be other methods/improvments developed in the future, who knows.

I'm also curious if we would be able to prune the blockchain in the future, like Aeon or Boolberry do - although Monero can't use the same method IIRC.

Some pruning (about 80% IIRC) is already partially implemented and will be rolled out when it is ready.

[Dotto]

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

[ozkraut]

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

[Hueristic]

@$@#%$, I put a buy order in and it goes up 5%! Guess I should have bought at market.

Couldn't dip just a little first, dammit!

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

[Dotto]

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Thanks, Oz!

[elrippos friend]

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

At the moment writing we have rate of 0,0137400BTC/XMR which equals in ~$92 so if you devide the result by 1.000.000 you get pretty near to the BTC/XMR rate.

Is that right or did i get anything wrong?

[aminorex]

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

[elrippos friend]

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Ok, got your intention and i think i got your thinking on this matter. Hence the hashrate dropped pretty heavily since the last hard fork this calculation model can be estimated as an indicator.

Lets pretend we take the the scaling factor of 1.000.000 then MOnerO seemed to be heavily overpriced with the effect of the last hard fork. Now the price drops to the result of calculation model within somewhat of 4 months, so this can be seen as an indicator for this. The question is, will correlate also in the other direction?

I did some studies on historic charts and honestly i did not find a clear factor of time latency, where this could correlate, but let's watch and learn something from the next ATH 

[aminorex]

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

[elrippos friend]

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

OK, so for the legend

H=Hashrate
T=Transactionvolume
R=Reward/Block
B=Bitcoin price in $
a,b,c,d="random" scaling factor

(427mh/s*(100tph - 4XMR/block)* 0,000001)*6600$=270,5472$/XMR

Other inputs are welcome  



EDIT: Calculating the same with your first given calculation model would equal to

427mh/s*100tph/4xmr/block*0,000001=0,010675BTC/xmr

[Shnikes101]

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018

[elrippos friend]

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018

Nice 

[cAPSLOCK]

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018

Nice 

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

[Hueristic]

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut.

[elrippos friend]

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut.

Monero has it's own mindset and that's one reason i am full in this coin 

[Hueristic]

I was waiting until 1800 for the market to open on Poloniex, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock. Saw on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price. Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

WTF, is this a bot account?

EDIT:

YUP, Bot.

Because I am slow to type, I could not participate in the initial whipsaw

There's a win for the little guys
I was waiting until 3am for the market to open on Polo, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock...saw 375 on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price...Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

[Febo]

I reported him. Strange that someone with 180 activity is doing this and was not banned yet. Maybe this that he changes few words helps him stay alive.

[Cyrus]

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.