Bitcoin Forum
September 22, 2019, 07:34:52 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 ... 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 [1958] 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ... 2066 »
  Print  
Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3200278 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 2 users deleted.)
spirali
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 65
Merit: 61


View Profile
August 24, 2018, 12:40:44 AM
 #39141

I was thinking of total supply in the other reason I mentioned:
- smaller supply (is there any estimations when XMR will over come BTC's supply?)
But thanks for all the info. Also interesting link, thanks!

Oh I see... I knew I read that and I knew I could find the answer (because I asked myself the same question in the past) but I quoted another sentence when I replied and I started from there  Roll Eyes

1 BTC = 1 BTC
1569180892
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569180892

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569180892
Reply with quote  #2

1569180892
Report to moderator
1569180892
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569180892

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569180892
Reply with quote  #2

1569180892
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1569180892
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569180892

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569180892
Reply with quote  #2

1569180892
Report to moderator
1569180892
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569180892

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569180892
Reply with quote  #2

1569180892
Report to moderator
1569180892
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569180892

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569180892
Reply with quote  #2

1569180892
Report to moderator
smooth
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2254
Merit: 1136



View Profile
August 24, 2018, 01:53:07 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #39142

Apparently Bulletproofs can reduce the average tx from 15kb to something like 1.5kb-3kb which is still slightly larger than Bitcoin's 0.5kb but definitely a significant improvement. Would something like RuffCT/StringCT reduce that even more?

As currently envisioned that would increase the ring size (so better privacy) without increasing the TX size but wouldn't significantly reduce the tx size. There might be other methods/improvments developed in the future, who knows.

Quote
I'm also curious if we would be able to prune the blockchain in the future, like Aeon or Boolberry do - although Monero can't use the same method IIRC.

Some pruning (about 80% IIRC) is already partially implemented and will be rolled out when it is ready.

Dotto
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 974
Merit: 1002


No maps for these territories


View Profile
August 24, 2018, 07:35:43 PM
Last edit: August 24, 2018, 09:17:14 PM by Dotto
 #39143

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?
ozkraut
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 522
Merit: 266


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 12:07:42 AM
Merited by Dotto (10)
 #39144

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Monero - Wir sind die Leute vor denen uns unsere Eltern gewarnt haben!
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1238


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 02:21:31 AM
 #39145

@$@#%$, I put a buy order in and it goes up 5%! Guess I should have bought at market.

Couldn't dip just a little first, dammit!

Johnny Mnemonic
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 791
Merit: 507



View Profile
August 25, 2018, 03:05:19 AM
 #39146

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

Dotto
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 974
Merit: 1002


No maps for these territories


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 06:41:23 AM
 #39147

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Thanks, Oz!
elrippos friend
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 144


only hodl what you understand and love!


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 09:49:49 AM
 #39148

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually Smiley

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

At the moment writing we have rate of 0,0137400BTC/XMR which equals in ~$92 so if you devide the result by 1.000.000 you get pretty near to the BTC/XMR rate.

Is that right or did i get anything wrong?

aminorex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1582
Merit: 1029


Sine secretum non libertas


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 07:40:46 PM
 #39149

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
elrippos friend
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 144


only hodl what you understand and love!


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 08:51:11 PM
 #39150

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Ok, got your intention and i think i got your thinking on this matter. Hence the hashrate dropped pretty heavily since the last hard fork this calculation model can be estimated as an indicator.

Lets pretend we take the the scaling factor of 1.000.000 then MOnerO seemed to be heavily overpriced with the effect of the last hard fork. Now the price drops to the result of calculation model within somewhat of 4 months, so this can be seen as an indicator for this. The question is, will correlate also in the other direction?

I did some studies on historic charts and honestly i did not find a clear factor of time latency, where this could correlate, but let's watch and learn something from the next ATH  Grin

aminorex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1582
Merit: 1029


Sine secretum non libertas


View Profile
August 25, 2018, 10:23:41 PM
 #39151

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
elrippos friend
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 144


only hodl what you understand and love!


View Profile
August 26, 2018, 08:42:36 AM
 #39152

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) *  b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit.  Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.  

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) *  b + c)*B

OK, so for the legend

H=Hashrate
T=Transactionvolume
R=Reward/Block
B=Bitcoin price in $
a,b,c,d="random" scaling factor

(427mh/s*(100tph - 4XMR/block)* 0,000001)*6600$=270,5472$/XMR

Other inputs are welcome  Grin



EDIT: Calculating the same with your first given calculation model would equal to

427mh/s*100tph/4xmr/block*0,000001=0,010675BTC/xmr

Shnikes101
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 255
Merit: 109


View Profile
August 26, 2018, 07:44:17 PM
Merited by explorer (1)
 #39153

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018
elrippos friend
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 144


only hodl what you understand and love!


View Profile
August 26, 2018, 09:44:54 PM
 #39154

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018


Nice  Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2310
Merit: 1384


UNLEASH THE FURY!


View Profile
August 27, 2018, 12:45:12 AM
 #39155

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
        -Will be merged soon
        -This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
        -May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
        -This is expected to happen next week.  As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero.  Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018


Nice  Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...
Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1238


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
August 27, 2018, 03:47:42 AM
 #39156


Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut. Smiley

elrippos friend
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 714
Merit: 144


only hodl what you understand and love!


View Profile
August 27, 2018, 09:35:11 AM
 #39157


Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n...  Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut. Smiley

Monero has it's own mindset and that's one reason i am full in this coin  Grin Cheesy Wink Smiley

Hueristic
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1238


Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


View Profile
August 27, 2018, 12:31:58 PM
 #39158

I was waiting until 1800 for the market to open on Poloniex, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock. Saw on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price. Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

WTF, is this a bot account?

EDIT:

YUP, Bot.

Quote
Because I am slow to type, I could not participate in the initial whipsaw

There's a win for the little guys Wink
I was waiting until 3am for the market to open on Polo, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock...saw 375 on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price...Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

Febo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1904
Merit: 1105



View Profile
August 27, 2018, 12:53:00 PM
 #39159

I reported him. Strange that someone with 180 activity is doing this and was not banned yet. Maybe this that he changes few words helps him stay alive.

.BitDice.               ▄▄███▄▄
           ▄▄██▀▀ ▄ ▀▀██▄▄
      ▄▄█ ▀▀  ▄▄█████▄▄  ▀▀ █▄▄
  ▄▄██▀▀     ▀▀ █████ ▀▀     ▀▀██▄▄
██▀▀ ▄▄██▀      ▀███▀      ▀██▄▄ ▀▀██
██  ████▄▄       ███       ▄▄████  ██
██  █▀▀████▄▄  ▄█████▄  ▄▄████▀▀█  ██
██  ▀     ▀▀▀███████████▀▀▀     ▀  ██
             ███████████
██  ▄     ▄▄▄███████████▄▄▄     ▄  ██
██  █▄▄████▀▀  ▀█████▀  ▀▀████▄▄█  ██
██  ████▀▀       ███       ▀▀████  ██
██▄▄ ▀▀██▄      ▄███▄      ▄██▀▀ ▄▄██
  ▀▀██▄▄     ▄▄ █████ ▄▄     ▄▄██▀▀
      ▀▀█ ▄▄  ▀▀█████▀▀  ▄▄ █▀▀
           ▀▀██▄▄ ▀ ▄▄██▀▀
               ▀▀███▀▀
        ▄▄███████▄▄
     ▄███████████████▄
    ████▀▀       ▀▀████
   ████▀           ▀████
   ████             ████
   ████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ████
▄█████████████████████████▄
██████████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██████████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████                   ████
████▄                 ▄████
████████▄▄▄     ▄▄▄████████
  ▀▀▀█████████████████▀▀▀
        ▀▀▀█████▀▀▀
▄▄████████████████████████████████▄▄
██████████████████████████████████████
█████                            █████
█████                            █████
█████                            █████
█████                            █████
█████                     ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
█████                   ▄█▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄
█████                   ██          ██
█████                   ██          ██
█████                   ██          ██
██████████████████▀▀███ ██          ██
 ████████████████▄  ▄██ ██          ██
   ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██          ██
             ██████████ ██          ██
           ▄███████████ ██████▀▀██████
          █████████████  ▀████▄▄████▀
[/]
Cyrus
Ninja
Administrator
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2366
Merit: 1124



View Profile
August 27, 2018, 02:34:31 PM
 #39160

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

Pages: « 1 ... 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 [1958] 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ... 2066 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!