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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3287334 times)
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September 16, 2018, 10:23:38 AM
 #39321

monero has been up almost 40% since 3 months ago

So that equals to 218% in one year  Grin

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September 16, 2018, 10:52:26 AM
 #39322

We got close to ZEC price again in last days, but did not get ahead. I dont believe Monero was ever more expensive then ZEC so far.  This was sort of destined to happen because of the emission. Doubt many here speculated it will not happen this long. Any ideas when Monero will get more expensive then ZEC?
Probably soon (2-10 days). But we will see if the higher price will last. I am no expert in TA but it seems like they have pretty similar support levels (around $90-$100) so we will see which one will be stronger.
What do you think the consequences of this "flippening" may be?
BTW. Just saw this article today explaining how private ZCash really is.

True,,, even I did not think it would happen this long, or this year. I know long term Monero has the strength and vitality to outperform ZEC but because of the marketing and hype surrounding such coins, plus with the fud of Monero and temporary weakening from multiple forks, it was not logical to see a price increase over the short term.

Did anyone notice how high the values for XMR trading on p2p like bsq is climbing higher and higher? That is a good sign even in these bad times.



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September 16, 2018, 11:57:04 AM
 #39323

monero has been up almost 40% since 3 months ago

More like 10% down from 3 months ago. In both BTC or UDS.  Not sure what you been looking at.


So the Bytecoin/Minergate/Changelly/CMC/Cointelegraph pond gets even deeper:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@somenotesand/russia-s-changelly-atomic-wallet-changenow-guarda-ink-one-evercode-lab

First person to connect the dots all the way back to BCN wins.

Haha - Charlie Shrem is associated with these scammers. Maybe they met in prison?

He is actually advisers of like 100 ICOs. So you might see he is not advising anyone, but rather selling his name.

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September 16, 2018, 12:13:44 PM
 #39324



ZCL is going to introduce ring signatures?  Kiss  lol

Yes, and masternode blinding.

Lol, good one! Hah, I thought that was a joke until I realized you had quoted the Zclassic symbol (although he was in response to a ZEC post) and then I checked and yup they are talking about it. ROFLMFAO, you just can't make this shit up!

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September 17, 2018, 11:42:24 AM
Merited by Globb0 (5), ozkraut (5), obit33 (5), suchmoon (4), cAPSLOCK (2), infofront (2), spirali (1)
 #39325

The Monero Moon – A new curated weekly newsletter regarding all things Monero (Issue 2)

https://medium.com/@johnfoss/the-monero-moon-issue-2-c1e4e945ba14
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September 17, 2018, 03:46:36 PM
 #39326

We got close to ZEC price again in last days, but did not get ahead. I dont believe Monero was ever more expensive then ZEC so far.  This was sort of destined to happen because of the emission. Doubt many here speculated it will not happen this long. Any ideas when Monero will get more expensive then ZEC?

ZEC was pumped from before launch with insider trading on tokens before chain launch and has been artificially held up since. It will die a slow death but it will die as any non trustless system will.

According to that Satis report that's floating around, ZEC will do pretty well.



But if that means $6,500 Monero in three years, I'm good with it.
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September 17, 2018, 05:31:52 PM
 #39327

The Monero Moon – A new curated weekly newsletter regarding all things Monero (Issue 2)

https://medium.com/@johnfoss/the-monero-moon-issue-2-c1e4e945ba14

Dammit, just dropped all my merit. I Owe you merit for this from last month as well.

Merit this guy guys.

We got close to ZEC price again in last days, but did not get ahead. I dont believe Monero was ever more expensive then ZEC so far.  This was sort of destined to happen because of the emission. Doubt many here speculated it will not happen this long. Any ideas when Monero will get more expensive then ZEC?

ZEC was pumped from before launch with insider trading on tokens before chain launch and has been artificially held up since. It will die a slow death but it will die as any non trustless system will.

According to that Satis report that's floating around, ZEC will do pretty well.



But if that means $6,500 Monero in three years, I'm good with it.

Yeah, I really don't know what to make of that chart. I'm sure it has ulterior motives other than just forecasting.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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September 17, 2018, 08:33:22 PM
 #39328

The full report is available here: https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1Q1hEhBkiRCu_ruMdMsbc0A

Quote
The largest upside we see in the entire cryptoasset market is in the Privacy sector. Although Privacy networks are newer entrants, we believe the network effects seen from the likes of BTC earlier on will be repeated within dominant coins here. Not only do these coins target the same large and lower velocity store of value market as BTC and Currencies, they present a much deeper value proposition within those markets. As we stated above, the largest drivers of adoption within these networks will be continued pressure from capital controls, currency devaluation, and broader global turmoil. The use cases within the Privacy markets are incredibly sticky and feed on adoption, especially when regulators and law enforcement are making efforts to increase forensic penetration into public networks like BTC. Privacy networks do lack liquidity when compared to more commonly used Currencies, but they excel in and push the extremes of each use case within Currency networks. Recently, we have already seen early signs of adoption by some of these cryptoassets; ransoms being posted to large corporations where even BTC could be tracked and was not the preferred method, money laundering, and asset shielding. Looking into the space, we believe the use cases that target the largest end-markets will primarily use XMR (~60%) and ZEC (~20%). Despite developers and executives associated with these projects declining to comment upon illegal use (to avoid legal ramifications), the largest opportunity within the Privacy networks will be unlawful activities. Considering the nature of the use cases, the Privacy market user base will most likely rely on networks that have more active codebase development, more resistance to centralized control (possibly through mining), a growing ecosystem, and growing user base. Not only is XMR far more active in codebase development (prior report, pg. 20) and resistant to centralized mining efforts, it is fungible. While ZEC has an easier time being traded in regulated markets (since it has privacy features by request, not by default), we believe this will be a setback to adoption by darker markets, which prefer networks that are fungible (where more addresses use privacy than those which do not, making it more difficult to track down/blacklist tainted addresses). Only ~5% of the ZEC network uses “shielded” (or private) addresses currently, with the rest of the addresses being used for transactions functionally and technically no different than BTC.
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September 17, 2018, 09:11:57 PM
 #39329

After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.
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September 17, 2018, 11:06:07 PM
 #39330

The full report is available here: https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1Q1hEhBkiRCu_ruMdMsbc0A

Quote
The largest upside we see in the entire cryptoasset market is in the Privacy sector. Although Privacy networks are newer entrants, we believe the network effects seen from the likes of BTC earlier on will be repeated within dominant coins here. Not only do these coins target the same large and lower velocity store of value market as BTC and Currencies, they present a much deeper value proposition within those markets. As we stated above, the largest drivers of adoption within these networks will be continued pressure from capital controls, currency devaluation, and broader global turmoil. The use cases within the Privacy markets are incredibly sticky and feed on adoption, especially when regulators and law enforcement are making efforts to increase forensic penetration into public networks like BTC. Privacy networks do lack liquidity when compared to more commonly used Currencies, but they excel in and push the extremes of each use case within Currency networks. Recently, we have already seen early signs of adoption by some of these cryptoassets; ransoms being posted to large corporations where even BTC could be tracked and was not the preferred method, money laundering, and asset shielding. Looking into the space, we believe the use cases that target the largest end-markets will primarily use XMR (~60%) and ZEC (~20%). Despite developers and executives associated with these projects declining to comment upon illegal use (to avoid legal ramifications), the largest opportunity within the Privacy networks will be unlawful activities. Considering the nature of the use cases, the Privacy market user base will most likely rely on networks that have more active codebase development, more resistance to centralized control (possibly through mining), a growing ecosystem, and growing user base. Not only is XMR far more active in codebase development (prior report, pg. 20) and resistant to centralized mining efforts, it is fungible. While ZEC has an easier time being traded in regulated markets (since it has privacy features by request, not by default), we believe this will be a setback to adoption by darker markets, which prefer networks that are fungible (where more addresses use privacy than those which do not, making it more difficult to track down/blacklist tainted addresses). Only ~5% of the ZEC network uses “shielded” (or private) addresses currently, with the rest of the addresses being used for transactions functionally and technically no different than BTC.

I remember reading that when it was first released (did you post it back then?). But was unsure then whether to put any credence into it or not. I find it hard to believe Dash will be in the green or even exist at that time. But then again I can't believe alot of shitcoin scams are still around. People never cease to amaze me. Smiley

After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.

Monero took a big hit really early and has pretty much found it's floor I think, but in this space who knows???

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September 18, 2018, 07:31:37 AM
 #39331

We got close to ZEC price again in last days, but did not get ahead. I dont believe Monero was ever more expensive then ZEC so far.  This was sort of destined to happen because of the emission. Doubt many here speculated it will not happen this long. Any ideas when Monero will get more expensive then ZEC?

ZEC was pumped from before launch with insider trading on tokens before chain launch and has been artificially held up since. It will die a slow death but it will die as any non trustless system will.

According to that Satis report that's floating around, ZEC will do pretty well.


From their report all crypto currencies that act as a currency will do well. In general I think their report is pessimistic. 



After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.

Litecoin got a great competitor in BCH. That for sure influenced LTC price.

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September 18, 2018, 07:40:47 AM
 #39332

After all, this recent bloodbath the price of Monero has resisted well. I remember that for some time it was similar to the LTC. Now it's double. Not that this comparison is worth anything, but it is a simple way to compare.

There was a great fall with the hunt the anonymous coins by the authorities of Asian countries. But in those two weeks besides resisting the falls still rises above average.

Monero is undoubtedly the only anonymous project. Still has several difficulties. But my theory is that some people are selling BTCs from their exchanges in an attempt to escape from KYC and to leave no trace they choose Monero.

This shows that eventually, monero will outperform other projects as the standard currency of those seeking freedom and privacy.

That is the real takeaway from everything I ever see about Monero, same as Bitcoin, the resistance to negativity. I agree we should not be looking at comparisons as they cannot predict the future outcome but we can learn about how strong Monero is in the face of bad developments and how quietly it always moves as it grows ever in adoption and use.

Absolutely people will choose Monero when they want a privacy coin. They can always go for ZEC, Dash, whatever,,, but in the end, you cannot beat XMR's acceptance.



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Rainbot
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spirali
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September 18, 2018, 09:42:09 AM
 #39333

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

1 BTC = 1 BTC
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September 18, 2018, 12:40:59 PM
 #39334

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

Is he still using this time to research Spectre?

I have serious reservations about that protocol but I forgot what they were. Doh

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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September 18, 2018, 04:23:10 PM
 #39335

If you like Monero, please consider donating something to Surae to support development: https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/90730/continued-funding-for-surae-for-another-quarter-september-october-november-2018

Side note for speculators: he's using a 71.88 USD/XMR baseline to be on the safe side during September, October and November

Is he still using this time to research Spectre?

I have serious reservations about that protocol but I forgot what they were. Doh

Looks like he's on multisig & lightning now.

1 BTC = 1 BTC
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September 18, 2018, 04:31:12 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #39336

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

I assume you are asking about the supply rate as it's impossible to foresee the inflation based on demand (or I should re-read Milton Friedman). In that case, here is the answer:




Note the supply rate will be similar from 2019 to 2027. You can read this very interesting reddit post to get more info: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/512kwh/useful_for_learning_about_monero_coin_emission/

1 BTC = 1 BTC
elrippos friend
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September 19, 2018, 05:19:00 AM
 #39337

Wow, when are we going to lift off again  Grin Cheesy

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September 19, 2018, 09:26:09 AM
Last edit: September 19, 2018, 09:39:09 AM by Febo
 #39338

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

You can look here. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105927644072070760779

It says in about a year.

2019 inflation should be around 4%
2020 inflation should be around 2.4%

While Bitcoins is 3.76%  in 2019 and not much less in 2020.

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September 19, 2018, 09:32:54 AM
 #39339

Is there any good estimation of when, in 2019, the inflation rate of XMR will become inferior to the inflation rate of BTC?

You can look here. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105927644072070760779

It already was once before Bitcoin halving for a short time.

It says in about a year.
I was just looking at this spreadsheet. Smiley
According to it daily inflation crossover will happen on 10 August 2019. I don't know if this table is take into account every variable there is, anyway interesting data too look at. Smiley

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September 19, 2018, 02:34:27 PM
 #39340

I think XMR's emission after all the coins have been mined will actually help in adoption, encourage a bit of spending and could have a wider distribution than BTC.

Pure deflation would encourage more hoarding, less spending and could even cause the economy to stagnate.

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