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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3180661 times)
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November 28, 2018, 02:15:32 AM
 #39981

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.



so the "bitcoin cards" are widely redistributed presently.
it was previsible for me, due to recent evolutions in 2017-2018.
when done, begins a new cycle, where privacy coins will get their role.
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November 28, 2018, 01:29:39 PM
 #39982

Blah blah blah

Frig off Lahey
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November 28, 2018, 02:42:11 PM
 #39983





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November 28, 2018, 03:19:03 PM
 #39984

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.


Frankly speaking, ETFs, stocks, etc. are the real playpen of crooks and manipulators... Joe Public needs to wake the fuck up and realize his retirement savings (401k, IRAs, etc.) that he's been dumping into for decades are in the hands of these crooks and don't give a fuck if you successfully retire on time or not.

Since we are alluding to the US when we are talking about the SEC; we can't ignore the fact that there is a President in the Whitehouse that will do anything to ensure that on paper, it will look like he single-handedly brought about the most robust economy ever in the US.  ... A.K.A manipulation.  SEC, ETF's and the like are all manipulated by governments (at the whim of what political party is in power) to look like everything is fine and the economy is stable, so Joe Public feels confident in buying his son, Timmy Public, that Xbox One for Christmas without fear of losing his job in the near future.  There will always come a time when kicking the can down the road comes back to bite everyone in the ass, and Mr. Public has to fund bailouts for those crooks who caused these issues in the first place and lobbied the government to look the other way.

Point is... It sincerely irks me to hear the Joe Public's of the world talk about how much of a "Ponzi" cryptocurrencies are and how you could never use something like Crypto as a currency because it's full of market manipulators and is simply too volatile; while they are banking on their 401(k) to achieve a ROI on their IRAs, 401(k)s, etc. great enough to live out their golden years (without any guarantee of how much inflation there will be in the near future).


Edit: I literally just turned on the TV which had the news on and the headline is "Trump Threatens To Cut GM Subsidies Over Job Losses" ... lol


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Monero
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016

"Don't buy Monero, join our new ICO: 'The Monero Enterprise Alliance"  fluffypony:  May 24th, 2017
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November 28, 2018, 04:16:05 PM
 #39985

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.


Frankly speaking, ETFs, stocks, etc. are the real playpen of crooks and manipulators... Joe Public needs to wake the fuck up and realize his retirement savings (401k, IRAs, etc.) that he's been dumping into for decades are in the hands of these crooks and don't give a fuck if you successfully retire on time or not.

Since we are alluding to the US when we are talking about the SEC; we can't ignore the fact that there is a President in the Whitehouse that will do anything to ensure that on paper, it will look like he single-handedly brought about the most robust economy ever in the US.  ... A.K.A manipulation.  SEC, ETF's and the like are all manipulated by governments (at the whim of what political party is in power) to look like everything is fine and the economy is stable, so Joe Public feels confident in buying his son, Timmy Public, that Xbox One for Christmas without fear of losing his job in the near future.  There will always come a time when kicking the can down the road comes back to bite everyone in the ass, and Mr. Public has to fund bailouts for those crooks who caused these issues in the first place and lobbied the government to look the other way.

Point is... It sincerely irks me to hear the Joe Public's of the world talk about how much of a "Ponzi" cryptocurrencies are and how you could never use something like Crypto as a currency because it's full of market manipulators and is simply too volatile; while they are banking on their 401(k) to achieve a ROI on their IRAs, 401(k)s, etc. great enough to live out their golden years (without any guarantee of how much inflation there will be in the near future).


Edit: I literally just turned on the TV which had the news on and the headline is "Trump Threatens To Cut GM Subsidies Over Job Losses" ... lol

I agree with you, though I think my belief is a little more middle of the road.  There is no doubt "traditional big finance" is rife with manipulation and crookery.  But it is also coming.  And there will be no stopping it.  The good news is it does not yet understand the voltage of the wire it's about to pick up.

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

But there is no way we do not see traditional finance entering.  Did anyone see the presentation from yesterday by the ICE folks about Baakt?  They UNDERSTAND Bitcoin, and have chosen ONLY Bitcoin to start with.   They still seem to me to be very guarded as to their ultimate designs, which is understandable, but somewhat worrysome.  But in the end I think if they handle Bitcoin the wrong way it will mow them down just like it has everyone else that has tried to "tame" or control it.

*IF* their involvement is neutral or positive from a cypherpunk sort of ethos then I would love to see them start to work with Monero as well... but we have much to see before that happens.

But here's what I think is the best news for Monero in all this...  If the mainstreaming of Bitcoin turns out to be negative AT ALL then we will see a renaissance for XMR. If it is positive, then it is only a matter of time before Monero is recognized as the only other really useful blockchain project.
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November 28, 2018, 04:47:38 PM
 #39986


I agree with you, though I think my belief is a little more middle of the road.  There is no doubt "traditional big finance" is rife with manipulation and crookery.  But it is also coming.  And there will be no stopping it.  The good news is it does not yet understand the voltage of the wire it's about to pick up.

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

But there is no way we do not see traditional finance entering.  Did anyone see the presentation from yesterday by the ICE folks about Baakt?  They UNDERSTAND Bitcoin, and have chosen ONLY Bitcoin to start with.   They still seem to me to be very guarded as to their ultimate designs, which is understandable, but somewhat worrysome.  But in the end I think if they handle Bitcoin the wrong way it will mow them down just like it has everyone else that has tried to "tame" or control it.

*IF* their involvement is neutral or positive from a cypherpunk sort of ethos then I would love to see them start to work with Monero as well... but we have much to see before that happens.

But here's what I think is the best news for Monero in all this...  If the mainstreaming of Bitcoin turns out to be negative AT ALL then we will see a renaissance for XMR. If it is positive, then it is only a matter of time before Monero is recognized as the only other really useful blockchain project.

Even though it pains me to say it, CBOE and TPTB have done a great job of taming BTC this year and I hate them all the more for it.

I really would love to run into this fucker on the street.

https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-leo-melamed-well-tame-bitcoin


Frankly speaking, ETFs, stocks, etc. are the real playpen of crooks and manipulators... Joe Public needs to wake the fuck up and realize his retirement savings (401k, IRAs, etc.) that he's been dumping into for decades are in the hands of these crooks and don't give a fuck if you successfully retire on time or not.

Since we are alluding to the US when we are talking about the SEC; we can't ignore the fact that there is a President in the Whitehouse that will do anything to ensure that on paper, it will look like he single-handedly brought about the most robust economy ever in the US.  ... A.K.A manipulation.  SEC, ETF's and the like are all manipulated by governments (at the whim of what political party is in power) to look like everything is fine and the economy is stable, so Joe Public feels confident in buying his son, Timmy Public, that Xbox One for Christmas without fear of losing his job in the near future.  There will always come a time when kicking the can down the road comes back to bite everyone in the ass, and Mr. Public has to fund bailouts for those crooks who caused these issues in the first place and lobbied the government to look the other way.

Point is... It sincerely irks me to hear the Joe Public's of the world talk about how much of a "Ponzi" cryptocurrencies are and how you could never use something like Crypto as a currency because it's full of market manipulators and is simply too volatile; while they are banking on their 401(k) to achieve a ROI on their IRAs, 401(k)s, etc. great enough to live out their golden years (without any guarantee of how much inflation there will be in the near future).


Edit: I literally just turned on the TV which had the news on and the headline is "Trump Threatens To Cut GM Subsidies Over Job Losses" ... lol

IOU 1 sM+

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November 28, 2018, 07:16:58 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2018, 07:53:00 PM by KeyJockey
 #39987


I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.


God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

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November 28, 2018, 09:26:28 PM
 #39988



Even though it pains me to say it, CBOE and TPTB have done a great job of taming BTC this year and I hate them all the more for it.

I really would love to run into this fucker on the street.

https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-leo-melamed-well-tame-bitcoin



They made their move.  It *looks* like they had an effect.  

Lol.

Pretty soon it's Bitcoin's turn.

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November 28, 2018, 09:45:50 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)
 #39989


I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.


God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

When it comes to cryptowinter.  Yeah it's hard.  And this one has been soul crushing to me at times. And I do not think it is quite over.   I am a terrible trader, so I do not trade.  That is not why I am interested in BTC and XMR.  But look at my join date (not a brag... if only I was smart enough then to buy the 5000 BTC I considered buying on my porch when it was ~$2.).  I have seen several of these winters.

As to the "Which is the real BTC?".  I have an EXTREMELY strong option on this.  There is ONE Bitcoin.  And it is BTC.  We could go into the depth of reasons why, but it's not for this thread.  Craig Wright is a conman.  Ver is a troubled narcissistic idealist.  And for different reasons they have tried to wrestle the title of Bitcoin away from BTC and have created two centralized shitcoins and done great damage to the reputation of crypto.  Could I be wrong?  Sure... and I will pay dearly for it if I am.  My bet is where my belief is.

Here's the thing.  Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money is either going to be successful or not.  If it is not then we have seen the peak.  It will never have another all time high.  BCHABC, BCHSV, XRP, ETH, ALL the ICOs, and virtually ALL the ALTS are *NOT* decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money.

But if it is successful then then I think next upswing (whether its in a month or 5 years) will be so shocking that the average public will not believe it.  The mechanics of the system and the unprecedented nature of this invention will cause a most breathtaking effect when they kick in.

And Monero is the only complimentary blockchain that *is* Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money but offers something Bitcoin CANNOT.  That is an opaque blockchain.  Bitcoin will never do that.  Layer two can be as MimbleWimbled as they like...  but layer one will ALWAYS be transparent.

Monero also stands a chance of failure.  Moreso than bitcoin by an order of magnitude in my opinion.  But it also stands a chance to be a continued success in a way no other altcoin can even touch.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm556

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November 28, 2018, 09:59:16 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)
 #39990

I’ve been watching Monero for a long time, I think this is one of the most profitable assets, but why I didn’t take it three years ago, although I thought to take a lot, I took just a few coins just like that.

It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 28, 2018, 10:16:15 PM
 #39991


It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.


OMG the return of the legend... welcome back, brother!!

Aminorex and I both finally come back to "Monero Spec" after months of absence, about the same time?

That must signify something, eh?

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  Grin

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

Think ima still wait a bit yet and maybe try to "give up the absolute bottom" a little bit.  Wait & See if the bounce really comes, in earnest, someday.

After all IF/WHEN such "bounce" really comes to us and a new moonphaze restarts there's gonna be PLENTY OF UPSIDE to the next peak ($100,000 bitcoin?)

Let's see how things go now till maybe mid-spring 2019

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November 29, 2018, 04:15:52 PM
 #39992


It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.


OMG the return of the legend... welcome back, brother!!

Lots of good posts in here, but this thread is not the same without aminorex and his monkey.

certainly a welcome sight! Smiley

@aminorex, Great to see you posting. Smiley

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November 29, 2018, 06:40:10 PM
 #39993

Probably not good news for Monero price in the short term, next week or three, but maybe over longer periods not necessarily bad news:

https://twitter.com/CoinbasePro/status/1068203146256764928?s=19
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November 29, 2018, 06:50:37 PM
 #39994

This one is good news for sure, maybe not new to most of us but good for monero in general i guess

https://cointelegraph.com/news/hardware-wallet-ledger-nano-s-announces-support-for-monero
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November 29, 2018, 09:31:40 PM
 #39995

Probably not good news for Monero price in the short term, next week or three, but maybe over longer periods not necessarily bad news:

https://twitter.com/CoinbasePro/status/1068203146256764928?s=19

The deep state is always first in line


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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November 29, 2018, 10:05:07 PM
Merited by lethos3 (1)
 #39996

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  Grin

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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December 01, 2018, 09:54:48 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1), lethos3 (1)
 #39997

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  Grin

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is.  It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late.  It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).  

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low.  OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....  

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good.  But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.  

DYOR.


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December 01, 2018, 10:27:26 AM
 #39998

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  Grin

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is.  It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late.  It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).  

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low.  OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....  

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good.  But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.  

DYOR.



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December 01, 2018, 03:00:30 PM
 #39999

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  Grin

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

Wait, Wat??? It can't be oversold, there's only 17 fucking million coins!

BTW, where have you been? Trying to grab some cheap coins to restock? Wink

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December 01, 2018, 03:29:08 PM
 #40000


I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is.  It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late.  It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).  

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low.  OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....  

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good.  But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.  

DYOR.



I feel that is totally true as of right now, but what if there was an actually "flippining" period where XMR took over in market cap compared to BTC and it is all out there in the public by it being covered in the media, news stories or whatever.  BTC has already made headlines during the crazy bull market last year, but think of how much "click bait" journalism could be produced if Monero starts a bull run in the XMR/BTC market.  How many times could "experts" come on TV news and talk about this new and untraceable internet currency like Bitcoin that is being hailed by users on the 'dark web' as the 'new Bitcoin'.  

Yes, I understand that Bitcoin is a super fucking vital part to everything... but that's just right now.  I'm honestly not sold on the fact that if Bitcoin isn't #1 on the market cap list for ever and ever, that everything will come crashing down.

Edit: Oh, and I don't think that buying at these prices will pose as a problem for anyone, whether you buy here at $50, or catch the knife so perfectly that you caught the absolute very bottom of $32.69 in a couple months or so, or whatever the case may be, when you believe that xmr will be worth way more in the future.

I will refer to Pegasus to explain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEzNXzZy8e4


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Monero
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016

"Don't buy Monero, join our new ICO: 'The Monero Enterprise Alliance"  fluffypony:  May 24th, 2017
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