[XMR] Monero Speculation

[generalizethis]

^  How so?  I wasn't aware any BTC futures expired that day.  And whenever prices fell caused by futures' expiration, it was never anything like this.  This blood bath looks like there's some maniac pushing the sell button.

Not sure, just recall a few people making that claim when it happened--spent a few hours looking for a reason that wasn't "zcash fork!" so maybe it was wishful thinking on my part. But it sounded plausible at the time.

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[Hueristic]

It probably was a critical mass point and TPTB felt it was a good time to strike. Or set it up to coincide with the BCH drama.

Physiological warfare, but that will not work as they just don't grasp the reality.

I bet they wish they could have moved satochi's coins as well. Lol

[cAPSLOCK]

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.

[H.W.P]

I’ve been watching Monero for a long time, I think this is one of the most profitable assets, but why I didn’t take it three years ago, although I thought to take a lot, I took just a few coins just like that.

[estenity]

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.

so the "bitcoin cards" are widely redistributed presently.
it was previsible for me, due to recent evolutions in 2017-2018.
when done, begins a new cycle, where privacy coins will get their role.

[jwinterm]

Blah blah blah

Frig off Lahey

[generalizethis]

Blah blah blah

Frig off Lahey

[phishead]

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.

Frankly speaking, ETFs, stocks, etc. are the real playpen of crooks and manipulators... Joe Public needs to wake the fuck up and realize his retirement savings (401k, IRAs, etc.) that he's been dumping into for decades are in the hands of these crooks and don't give a fuck if you successfully retire on time or not.

Since we are alluding to the US when we are talking about the SEC; we can't ignore the fact that there is a President in the Whitehouse that will do anything to ensure that on paper, it will look like he single-handedly brought about the most robust economy ever in the US.  ... A.K.A manipulation.  SEC, ETF's and the like are all manipulated by governments (at the whim of what political party is in power) to look like everything is fine and the economy is stable, so Joe Public feels confident in buying his son, Timmy Public, that Xbox One for Christmas without fear of losing his job in the near future.  There will always come a time when kicking the can down the road comes back to bite everyone in the ass, and Mr. Public has to fund bailouts for those crooks who caused these issues in the first place and lobbied the government to look the other way.

Point is... It sincerely irks me to hear the Joe Public's of the world talk about how much of a "Ponzi" cryptocurrencies are and how you could never use something like Crypto as a currency because it's full of market manipulators and is simply too volatile; while they are banking on their 401(k) to achieve a ROI on their IRAs, 401(k)s, etc. great enough to live out their golden years (without any guarantee of how much inflation there will be in the near future).


Edit: I literally just turned on the TV which had the news on and the headline is "Trump Threatens To Cut GM Subsidies Over Job Losses" ... lol

[cAPSLOCK]

So I am noticing a pattern.

1.  Big BTC Market selloff.
2.  Big BCHSV rally with BCHABC even or selling off.
3.  Small or Medium Rally in one or more of the Privacy Alts (XMR, ZEC, DSH, XVG)
4.  BCHSV selloff

These three events have repeated at least 2 times, and I think we are currently on time 3...  And this time ZEC seems to be getting the most attention with XMR and XVG takng a little sunshine as well.


Thoughts:

It seems pretty obvious to me what is happening.  We are seeing a few whales selling of BTC to fund their "war" which has catalyzed the extension to the bear market in general.  Then we are seeing mass BTC and BCHABC being converted to BCHSV on captive exchanges which explodes the price since we do not have the ability to deposit SV on exchanges fully working yet.

The SV angle is very tenuous.  Once deposits and withdrawals and wallets are all working well we should see some pretty serious action, and I am thinking a fairly large selloff.  The whales buying it can only keep this up for so long, and once the floodgates open it's going to be a bloodbath.

Sadly, this is setting mainstream crypto acceptance back. There is no question.  The volatility will make the current SEC chief very reluctant to allow mainstream products like ETFs.  It frightens Joe Public. And it makes crypto look like the playpen of crooks and manipulators... which... frankly... it is.

As to the privacy coin bumps... this is most interesting.  It does seem to be happening in this same cycle...  after BTC and SV cool down from their respective dump/pump we see action.  Why?  Who?  Dunno.  Discuss amongst yourselves!  Looks like ZEC is getting the love this time around, but XMR and XVG are also seeing volume and action.

Frankly speaking, ETFs, stocks, etc. are the real playpen of crooks and manipulators... Joe Public needs to wake the fuck up and realize his retirement savings (401k, IRAs, etc.) that he's been dumping into for decades are in the hands of these crooks and don't give a fuck if you successfully retire on time or not.

Since we are alluding to the US when we are talking about the SEC; we can't ignore the fact that there is a President in the Whitehouse that will do anything to ensure that on paper, it will look like he single-handedly brought about the most robust economy ever in the US.  ... A.K.A manipulation.  SEC, ETF's and the like are all manipulated by governments (at the whim of what political party is in power) to look like everything is fine and the economy is stable, so Joe Public feels confident in buying his son, Timmy Public, that Xbox One for Christmas without fear of losing his job in the near future.  There will always come a time when kicking the can down the road comes back to bite everyone in the ass, and Mr. Public has to fund bailouts for those crooks who caused these issues in the first place and lobbied the government to look the other way.

Point is... It sincerely irks me to hear the Joe Public's of the world talk about how much of a "Ponzi" cryptocurrencies are and how you could never use something like Crypto as a currency because it's full of market manipulators and is simply too volatile; while they are banking on their 401(k) to achieve a ROI on their IRAs, 401(k)s, etc. great enough to live out their golden years (without any guarantee of how much inflation there will be in the near future).


Edit: I literally just turned on the TV which had the news on and the headline is "Trump Threatens To Cut GM Subsidies Over Job Losses" ... lol

I agree with you, though I think my belief is a little more middle of the road.  There is no doubt "traditional big finance" is rife with manipulation and crookery.  But it is also coming.  And there will be no stopping it.  The good news is it does not yet understand the voltage of the wire it's about to pick up.

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

But there is no way we do not see traditional finance entering.  Did anyone see the presentation from yesterday by the ICE folks about Baakt?  They UNDERSTAND Bitcoin, and have chosen ONLY Bitcoin to start with.   They still seem to me to be very guarded as to their ultimate designs, which is understandable, but somewhat worrysome.  But in the end I think if they handle Bitcoin the wrong way it will mow them down just like it has everyone else that has tried to "tame" or control it.

*IF* their involvement is neutral or positive from a cypherpunk sort of ethos then I would love to see them start to work with Monero as well... but we have much to see before that happens.

But here's what I think is the best news for Monero in all this...  If the mainstreaming of Bitcoin turns out to be negative AT ALL then we will see a renaissance for XMR. If it is positive, then it is only a matter of time before Monero is recognized as the only other really useful blockchain project.

[Hueristic]

I agree with you, though I think my belief is a little more middle of the road.  There is no doubt "traditional big finance" is rife with manipulation and crookery.  But it is also coming.  And there will be no stopping it.  The good news is it does not yet understand the voltage of the wire it's about to pick up.

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

But there is no way we do not see traditional finance entering.  Did anyone see the presentation from yesterday by the ICE folks about Baakt?  They UNDERSTAND Bitcoin, and have chosen ONLY Bitcoin to start with.   They still seem to me to be very guarded as to their ultimate designs, which is understandable, but somewhat worrysome.  But in the end I think if they handle Bitcoin the wrong way it will mow them down just like it has everyone else that has tried to "tame" or control it.

*IF* their involvement is neutral or positive from a cypherpunk sort of ethos then I would love to see them start to work with Monero as well... but we have much to see before that happens.

But here's what I think is the best news for Monero in all this...  If the mainstreaming of Bitcoin turns out to be negative AT ALL then we will see a renaissance for XMR. If it is positive, then it is only a matter of time before Monero is recognized as the only other really useful blockchain project.

Even though it pains me to say it, CBOE and TPTB have done a great job of taming BTC this year and I hate them all the more for it.

I really would love to run into this fucker on the street.

https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-leo-melamed-well-tame-bitcoin

Frankly speaking, ETFs, stocks, etc. are the real playpen of crooks and manipulators... Joe Public needs to wake the fuck up and realize his retirement savings (401k, IRAs, etc.) that he's been dumping into for decades are in the hands of these crooks and don't give a fuck if you successfully retire on time or not.

Since we are alluding to the US when we are talking about the SEC; we can't ignore the fact that there is a President in the Whitehouse that will do anything to ensure that on paper, it will look like he single-handedly brought about the most robust economy ever in the US.  ... A.K.A manipulation.  SEC, ETF's and the like are all manipulated by governments (at the whim of what political party is in power) to look like everything is fine and the economy is stable, so Joe Public feels confident in buying his son, Timmy Public, that Xbox One for Christmas without fear of losing his job in the near future.  There will always come a time when kicking the can down the road comes back to bite everyone in the ass, and Mr. Public has to fund bailouts for those crooks who caused these issues in the first place and lobbied the government to look the other way.

Point is... It sincerely irks me to hear the Joe Public's of the world talk about how much of a "Ponzi" cryptocurrencies are and how you could never use something like Crypto as a currency because it's full of market manipulators and is simply too volatile; while they are banking on their 401(k) to achieve a ROI on their IRAs, 401(k)s, etc. great enough to live out their golden years (without any guarantee of how much inflation there will be in the near future).


Edit: I literally just turned on the TV which had the news on and the headline is "Trump Threatens To Cut GM Subsidies Over Job Losses" ... lol

IOU 1 sM+

[KeyJockey]

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

[cAPSLOCK]

Even though it pains me to say it, CBOE and TPTB have done a great job of taming BTC this year and I hate them all the more for it.

I really would love to run into this fucker on the street.

https://www.coindesk.com/cme-groups-leo-melamed-well-tame-bitcoin

They made their move.  It *looks* like they had an effect.  

Lol.

Pretty soon it's Bitcoin's turn.

[cAPSLOCK]

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

When it comes to cryptowinter.  Yeah it's hard.  And this one has been soul crushing to me at times. And I do not think it is quite over.   I am a terrible trader, so I do not trade.  That is not why I am interested in BTC and XMR.  But look at my join date (not a brag... if only I was smart enough then to buy the 5000 BTC I considered buying on my porch when it was ~$2.).  I have seen several of these winters.

As to the "Which is the real BTC?".  I have an EXTREMELY strong option on this.  There is ONE Bitcoin.  And it is BTC.  We could go into the depth of reasons why, but it's not for this thread.  Craig Wright is a conman.  Ver is a troubled narcissistic idealist.  And for different reasons they have tried to wrestle the title of Bitcoin away from BTC and have created two centralized shitcoins and done great damage to the reputation of crypto.  Could I be wrong?  Sure... and I will pay dearly for it if I am.  My bet is where my belief is.

Here's the thing.  Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money is either going to be successful or not.  If it is not then we have seen the peak.  It will never have another all time high.  BCHABC, BCHSV, XRP, ETH, ALL the ICOs, and virtually ALL the ALTS are *NOT* decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money.

But if it is successful then then I think next upswing (whether its in a month or 5 years) will be so shocking that the average public will not believe it.  The mechanics of the system and the unprecedented nature of this invention will cause a most breathtaking effect when they kick in.

And Monero is the only complimentary blockchain that *is* Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money but offers something Bitcoin CANNOT.  That is an opaque blockchain.  Bitcoin will never do that.  Layer two can be as MimbleWimbled as they like...  but layer one will ALWAYS be transparent.

Monero also stands a chance of failure.  Moreso than bitcoin by an order of magnitude in my opinion.  But it also stands a chance to be a continued success in a way no other altcoin can even touch.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm556

[aminorex]

I’ve been watching Monero for a long time, I think this is one of the most profitable assets, but why I didn’t take it three years ago, although I thought to take a lot, I took just a few coins just like that.

It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.

[KeyJockey]

It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.

OMG the return of the legend... welcome back, brother!!

Aminorex and I both finally come back to "Monero Spec" after months of absence, about the same time?

That must signify something, eh?

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL... 

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

Think ima still wait a bit yet and maybe try to "give up the absolute bottom" a little bit.  Wait & See if the bounce really comes, in earnest, someday.

After all IF/WHEN such "bounce" really comes to us and a new moonphaze restarts there's gonna be PLENTY OF UPSIDE to the next peak ($100,000 bitcoin?)

Let's see how things go now till maybe mid-spring 2019

[Hueristic]

It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.

OMG the return of the legend... welcome back, brother!!

Lots of good posts in here, but this thread is not the same without aminorex and his monkey.

certainly a welcome sight!

@aminorex, Great to see you posting.

[jwinterm]

Probably not good news for Monero price in the short term, next week or three, but maybe over longer periods not necessarily bad news:

https://twitter.com/CoinbasePro/status/1068203146256764928?s=19

[bubaba]

This one is good news for sure, maybe not new to most of us but good for monero in general i guess

https://cointelegraph.com/news/hardware-wallet-ledger-nano-s-announces-support-for-monero

[Whtwabbit]

Probably not good news for Monero price in the short term, next week or three, but maybe over longer periods not necessarily bad news:

https://twitter.com/CoinbasePro/status/1068203146256764928?s=19

The deep state is always first in line

[aminorex]

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.