[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is.  It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late.  It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).  

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low.  OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....  

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good.  But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.  

DYOR.

[1714023522]

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[1714023522]

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[elrippos friend]

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is.  It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late.  It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).  

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low.  OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....  

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good.  But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.  

DYOR.

History always repeats itself 

[Hueristic]

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

so, Monero is oversold but we are not out of the woods yet...

Wait, Wat??? It can't be oversold, there's only 17 fucking million coins!

BTW, where have you been? Trying to grab some cheap coins to restock?

[phishead]

I do agree it's less likely things can drop much further, but Monero will not be 'out of the woods' until Bitcoin is.  It's stating the obvious, but the behemoth that BTC is, in a market that is dominated by it, sets the tone... meaning any prediction of Monero's price (in USD terms) is heavily dependent on the BTC /USD market.

That said, assuming the bear market must end in BTC and that the end is more likely to be months, than years away now, then that will see Monero's USD price rise heavily from the lows we have seen of late.  It will take a rise against BTC too for it to really shine, but once there are real signs the crypto winter is ending, Monero is well placed and has fared better than most in these tough times.

Monero is undeniably cheap at these levels. I think much lower in XMR/USD than the $50 mark is highly unlikely unless BTC is going to go under $3000, so it probably is a good time to buy (given XMR/BTC is as low as it's been for a few months against BTC, too).  

Aminorex is right to be cautious; calling the bear market over is a mug's game - but the possibility of a sharp move up is certainly real.

If we are following a 2013/2014 pattern again, as some say - then January next year should be the absolute low.  OK, history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes....  

I personally think the BTC (and therefore the whole crypto) bear market is bottoming and will be visibly over soon - by spring at the latest - which means the outlook for Monero is looking good.  But that is just my gut feeling, hopium-based guess.  

DYOR.

I feel that is totally true as of right now, but what if there was an actually "flippining" period where XMR took over in market cap compared to BTC and it is all out there in the public by it being covered in the media, news stories or whatever.  BTC has already made headlines during the crazy bull market last year, but think of how much "click bait" journalism could be produced if Monero starts a bull run in the XMR/BTC market.  How many times could "experts" come on TV news and talk about this new and untraceable internet currency like Bitcoin that is being hailed by users on the 'dark web' as the 'new Bitcoin'.  

Yes, I understand that Bitcoin is a super fucking vital part to everything... but that's just right now.  I'm honestly not sold on the fact that if Bitcoin isn't #1 on the market cap list for ever and ever, that everything will come crashing down.

Edit: Oh, and I don't think that buying at these prices will pose as a problem for anyone, whether you buy here at $50, or catch the knife so perfectly that you caught the absolute very bottom of $32.69 in a couple months or so, or whatever the case may be, when you believe that xmr will be worth way more in the future.

I will refer to Pegasus to explain: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEzNXzZy8e4

[Hueristic]

Something weird happened to me yesterday. I told a buddy at the casino about monero and he jumped on his tablet and did a search for the price and first thing he did is start asking me about Zcrap. I'm not sure how he got there as I was distracted but it was almost immediate so it must have popped up on his initial search. I wonder if there is some fuckery going on.

[Febo]

https://coinatmradar.com/bitcoin_atm/6356/bitcoin-atm-dobi-atm-tokyo-bit-point-japan-co-ltd/


I am not really sure if this ATM works, because sometimes there are listed coins here that are not really installed on the ATM. But if it works we got answer on how banned is Monero in Japan.

[KeyJockey]

It's a good time to buy, methinks.  Recent events rang my cheap bell.

OMG the return of the legend... welcome back, brother!!

Lots of good posts in here, but this thread is not the same without aminorex and his monkey.

Heh... ook ook!!  🙉🙈🙊

Edit: Oh, and I don't think that buying at these prices will pose as a problem for anyone, whether you buy here at $50, or catch the knife so perfectly that you caught the absolute very bottom of $32.69 in a couple months or so, or whatever the case may be, when you believe that xmr will be worth way more in the future.

Yeah that's basically what I meant by saying I'd rather leave a little of the bottom on the table versus try to time it perfectly.

Plenty of upside to be realized more comfortably to the next true PEAK, even from as late as, say, the MIDDLE of the next up-slope... once it's very clearly gotten underway.

Meantime just MOAR POPCORN I guess  🍿  LOL

[ArticMine]

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

When it comes to cryptowinter.  Yeah it's hard.  And this one has been soul crushing to me at times. And I do not think it is quite over.   I am a terrible trader, so I do not trade.  That is not why I am interested in BTC and XMR.  But look at my join date (not a brag... if only I was smart enough then to buy the 5000 BTC I considered buying on my porch when it was ~$2.).  I have seen several of these winters.

As to the "Which is the real BTC?".  I have an EXTREMELY strong option on this.  There is ONE Bitcoin.  And it is BTC.  We could go into the depth of reasons why, but it's not for this thread.  Craig Wright is a conman.  Ver is a troubled narcissistic idealist.  And for different reasons they have tried to wrestle the title of Bitcoin away from BTC and have created two centralized shitcoins and done great damage to the reputation of crypto.  Could I be wrong?  Sure... and I will pay dearly for it if I am.  My bet is where my belief is.

Here's the thing.  Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money is either going to be successful or not.  If it is not then we have seen the peak.  It will never have another all time high.  BCHABC, BCHSV, XRP, ETH, ALL the ICOs, and virtually ALL the ALTS are *NOT* decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money.

But if it is successful then then I think next upswing (whether its in a month or 5 years) will be so shocking that the average public will not believe it.  The mechanics of the system and the unprecedented nature of this invention will cause a most breathtaking effect when they kick in.

And Monero is the only complimentary blockchain that *is* Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money but offers something Bitcoin CANNOT.  That is an opaque blockchain.  Bitcoin will never do that.  Layer two can be as MimbleWimbled as they like...  but layer one will ALWAYS be transparent.

Monero also stands a chance of failure.  Moreso than bitcoin by an order of magnitude in my opinion.  But it also stands a chance to be a continued success in a way no other altcoin can even touch.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm556

Monero offers something else that Bitcoin does not; namely an adaptive block weight and tail minimum emission that allows for scaling on the main chain. This lack of on chain scaling lies at the heart of the BCH split from XBT and the further split of BSV from BCH. When something as simple as increasing the transactions per second that a blockchain requires a a highly controversial and political hard fork it is hardly surprising to see the splits, wars and personality clashes we have in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.

On another note Bitcoin has already failed since it cannot meet the design purpose in the Satoshi paper namely a peer to peer cash like digital currency. This is primarily due to the fixed block size.

Edit: Litecoin has the same problem as Bitcoin with scaling; namely the fixed block size and falling lock reward.

[Hueristic]

It's literally oversold on the long time periods, the direction xmr is going is down and for quite a while already, just like most of the market. I risk calling the bottom at 50$, I had to buy.

I prefer bear markets, its when fortunes are made 

Yup, just put another buy in myself. Funny thing is I am probally one of the only regulars that also prefers a bear due to getting caught with my pants down before alphabay. W00ps!

That left a big mark.

Bad timing has been my thing in life.

Monero offers something else that Bitcoin does not; namely an adaptive block weight and tail minimum emission that allows for scaling on the main chain. This lack of on chain scaling lies at the heart of the BCH split from XBT and the further split of BSV from BCH. When something as simple as increasing the transactions per second that a blockchain requires a a highly controversial and political hard fork it is hardly surprising to see the splits, wars and personality clashes we have in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.

On another note Bitcoin has already failed since it cannot meet the design purpose in the Satoshi paper namely a peer to peer cash like digital currency. This is primarily due to the fixed block size.

Edit: Litecoin has the same problem as Bitcoin with scaling; namely the fixed block size and falling lock reward.

Can you ELI5 for us why the BTC codebase cannot adopt a dynamic blocksize?

[GingerAle]

It's literally oversold on the long time periods, the direction xmr is going is down and for quite a while already, just like most of the market. I risk calling the bottom at 50$, I had to buy.

I prefer bear markets, its when fortunes are made 

Yup, just put another buy in myself. Funny thing is I am probally one of the only regulars that also prefers a bear due to getting caught with my pants down before alphabay. W00ps!

That left a big mark.

Bad timing has been my thing in life.

Monero offers something else that Bitcoin does not; namely an adaptive block weight and tail minimum emission that allows for scaling on the main chain. This lack of on chain scaling lies at the heart of the BCH split from XBT and the further split of BSV from BCH. When something as simple as increasing the transactions per second that a blockchain requires a a highly controversial and political hard fork it is hardly surprising to see the splits, wars and personality clashes we have in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.

On another note Bitcoin has already failed since it cannot meet the design purpose in the Satoshi paper namely a peer to peer cash like digital currency. This is primarily due to the fixed block size.

Edit: Litecoin has the same problem as Bitcoin with scaling; namely the fixed block size and falling lock reward.

Can you ELI5 for us why the BTC codebase cannot adopt a dynamic blocksize?

The dynamic blocksize in Monero has a cost - it uses more real world resources to process larger and larger blocksizes. Therefore, the monero protocol puts a throttle on this adaptation - if a miner wants to create a block that is greater than the median of the past 100 blocks, the miner has to sacrifice some of the block reward. So say the block reward is 3 XMR. If the miner goes over 20% in size, the block reward is reduced to something like, i dunno, 2.7 XMR. I forget the exact numbers. So the miner has to choose transactions that have enough fees that would push the total reward over 3 XMR even with the penalty.

Now, when monero finishes its primary emission, it has a tail emission. 0.6 XMR per block ( or 0.3 XMR per block minute, to keep in mind the case that we increase blocktime targets for whatever reason again). This tail emission keeps in place the ability to penalize blocksize expansion. Otherwise, if there's no way to penalize blocksize increases, miners would just grow the blocksize to get more fees.

So, IMO, its not really a BTC codebase issue, its a social covenant issue - that being that bitcion will only ever have 21 million coins. Its easy to put a tail emission in bitcoin code and make an adaptive blocksize possible.

Now, there are some that have conjectured that one could eat into the fees in the absence of a tail emission. I think the math on this doesn't work out, or it may screw with the game theory incentives. In any case, tail emission also provides continued and guaranteed rewards for mining, so it has the nice benefit of providing security to the blockchain regarding immutability in the long future. Not a single cryptocurrency exists today that is secured by a fee market. Granted, 15 years ago, not a single cryptocurrency existed. Bitcoin is a grand experiment to see if a cryptocurrency network ( a new form of money ) can be bootstrapped. Thats phase 1. Phase 2, the existence of that network / money with only network fees, in the absence of any bootstrapping, is still an experiment that has not been performed. 

Basically, the blockreward can be seen like a set of training wheels that keeps bitcoin up and running.

Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.

Tiny wheels, tiny infinity.

[Hueristic]

It's literally oversold on the long time periods, the direction xmr is going is down and for quite a while already, just like most of the market. I risk calling the bottom at 50$, I had to buy.

I prefer bear markets, its when fortunes are made 

Yup, just put another buy in myself. Funny thing is I am probally one of the only regulars that also prefers a bear due to getting caught with my pants down before alphabay. W00ps!

That left a big mark.

Bad timing has been my thing in life.

Monero offers something else that Bitcoin does not; namely an adaptive block weight and tail minimum emission that allows for scaling on the main chain. This lack of on chain scaling lies at the heart of the BCH split from XBT and the further split of BSV from BCH. When something as simple as increasing the transactions per second that a blockchain requires a a highly controversial and political hard fork it is hardly surprising to see the splits, wars and personality clashes we have in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.

On another note Bitcoin has already failed since it cannot meet the design purpose in the Satoshi paper namely a peer to peer cash like digital currency. This is primarily due to the fixed block size.

Edit: Litecoin has the same problem as Bitcoin with scaling; namely the fixed block size and falling lock reward.

Can you ELI5 for us why the BTC codebase cannot adopt a dynamic blocksize?

The dynamic blocksize in Monero has a cost - it uses more real world resources to process larger and larger blocksizes. Therefore, the monero protocol puts a throttle on this adaptation - if a miner wants to create a block that is greater than the median of the past 100 blocks, the miner has to sacrifice some of the block reward. So say the block reward is 3 XMR. If the miner goes over 20% in size, the block reward is reduced to something like, i dunno, 2.7 XMR. I forget the exact numbers. So the miner has to choose transactions that have enough fees that would push the total reward over 3 XMR even with the penalty.

Now, when monero finishes its primary emission, it has a tail emission. 0.6 XMR per block ( or 0.3 XMR per block minute, to keep in mind the case that we increase blocktime targets for whatever reason again). This tail emission keeps in place the ability to penalize blocksize expansion. Otherwise, if there's no way to penalize blocksize increases, miners would just grow the blocksize to get more fees.

So, IMO, its not really a BTC codebase issue, its a social covenant issue - that being that bitcion will only ever have 21 million coins. Its easy to put a tail emission in bitcoin code and make an adaptive blocksize possible.

Now, there are some that have conjectured that one could eat into the fees in the absence of a tail emission. I think the math on this doesn't work out, or it may screw with the game theory incentives. In any case, tail emission also provides continued and guaranteed rewards for mining, so it has the nice benefit of providing security to the blockchain regarding immutability in the long future. Not a single cryptocurrency exists today that is secured by a fee market. Granted, 15 years ago, not a single cryptocurrency existed. Bitcoin is a grand experiment to see if a cryptocurrency network ( a new form of money ) can be bootstrapped. Thats phase 1. Phase 2, the existence of that network / money with only network fees, in the absence of any bootstrapping, is still an experiment that has not been performed. 

Basically, the blockreward can be seen like a set of training wheels that keeps bitcoin up and running.

Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.

Tiny wheels, tiny infinity.

Thanks for the lengthily reply Ginger. So basically the answer is nothing but the lack of a consensus to adapt an emission. I have heard people mention that there is a game theory behind this but have never had that explained, could you give that a shot?

[Whtwabbit]

Can you ELI5 for us why the BTC codebase cannot adopt a dynamic blocksize?

Bitcoin ABC literally stands for “Adjustable Blocksize Cap”, but the miners set the cap not an algorithm like in Monero, I have not read any convincing argument against dynamic blocksizes as given enough demand over time the blocksize cap will increase, I think they don't adopt it for the same reason stealth addresses are still not adopted even while completely possible with the Bitcoin codebase, they would be admitting defeat against the Cryptonote codebase, then why not just use Monero?

Why would they implement stealth addresses in bitcoin, then they would not be able to track you

[solias]

Back-Up-The-Truck, boyz??   LOL...  

Maybe.  But... nahhh.  Not for me.  Not yet.

For most folks doing things gradually keeps risk closer to their tolerance.  You don't want to be chasing it up in the FOMO frenzy, so starting to nibble a bit early, and patiently enduring a tolerable drawdown should one occur, means you at least have some skin in if the correction takes you by surprise.  I think we are about half the fundamental PQ=MV price right now, so a correction seems inevitable, eventually, unless the dnm economy suddenly contracts to match.  I allocate a % of powder to limit bids increasing in size all down the book, and a % of disposable income to periodic buys, under such circumstances.  But yeah, the staircase has not confirmedly reversed yet.

Amino, if current ~$60 price is half the fundamental PQ=MV price, for full XMR DNMs transactions denomination Q has to double, so that M follows, doubling to ~$120, or ~2B market cap. That implies that there's a billion dollar of transactions leftover to be denominated in XMR. What data get you to that figure?

Rational agency implies that at some point DNM shops will be forced to transact exclusively in XMR, but for that to happen major blockchain-analysis driven busts must happen. What is the current maturity of such tech?

At the moment, it also seems that XMR has been removed from Dream Market. Why? Does anyone have an estimate how much has that hurt current price?

[gulypz]

XMR is a project I trust a lot. Now I'm going to review my capital if I can make a proper budgeting. In the future I think there will be much higher prices.

[phishead]

Basically, the blockreward can be seen like a set of training wheels that keeps bitcoin up and running.

Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.

Tiny wheels, tiny infinity.

That’s interesting... Never thought of it like that before. So the 1mB block size is a hard set rule and the miners will always hit that (considering how many txs there always are ) and aren’t dissuaded somehow against ever going above 1 mB due to some game theory?

[GingerAle]

Basically, the blockreward can be seen like a set of training wheels that keeps bitcoin up and running.

Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.

Tiny wheels, tiny infinity.

That’s interesting... Never thought of it like that before. So the 1mB block size is a hard set rule and the miners will always hit that (considering how many txs there always are ) and aren’t dissuaded somehow against ever going above 1 mB due to some game theory?

yeah, thats the fundamental concept of transaction fees set out in the bitcoin whitepaper

Once   a   predetermined   number   of   coins   have   entered
circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation
free.

in bitcoin, yeah, there is now a 1 mb block size limit, and in general the incentive to keep it that way is to create a fee market. If you want to get into the next 1 MB block, then your gonna pay for it.

[ArticMine]

Basically, the blockreward can be seen like a set of training wheels that keeps bitcoin up and running.

Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.

Tiny wheels, tiny infinity.

That’s interesting... Never thought of it like that before. So the 1mB block size is a hard set rule and the miners will always hit that (considering how many txs there always are ) and aren’t dissuaded somehow against ever going above 1 mB due to some game theory?

yeah, thats the fundamental concept of transaction fees set out in the bitcoin whitepaper

Once   a   predetermined   number   of   coins   have   entered
circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation
free.

in bitcoin, yeah, there is now a 1 mb block size limit, and in general the incentive to keep it that way is to create a fee market. If you want to get into the next 1 MB block, then your gonna pay for it.

The fundamental problem with Bitcoin's so called fee market to replace the block reward is that there is zero justification for the above statement in Bitcoin whitepaper. The fact that this statement was embedded into what is otherwise a work of genius does not make the statement true. It also does not provide any justification for the game theory that statement implies. In fact there are many arguments that this fee market will not work in the absence of a block reward or where fees become the dominant source of revenue for miners.  

One very interesting argument for the failure of the Satoshi fee market is actually in Monero itself. If one looks at a miner acting in her best interests adding transactions to a Monero block, the miner will add the highest paying transactions first. This can be approximated by the highest fee per byte transaction first if the individual transaction weight is very much less than the effective median block weight.  When the penalty free portion is used up our miner will continue to add transactions until the incremental penalty paid for adding a transaction exceeds the fees paid by the transaction. Since the incremental penalty is proportional to the block reward it follows that the total fees per block paid are also proportional to the block reward. Competition between miners will ensure that. Furthermore the total fees per block are independent of the block weight. The net result of this is that if the block reward goes to zero the total fees paid per block also goes to zero. One conclusion is that in a Bitcoin like coin with a falling block reward in order for the Satoshi fee market to even have a chance of working the penalty in terms of the block reward for increasing the block size (weight) must be stiffer than that in Monero. One can then see the rationale for Bitcoin core's strict block weight limit.

Edit: One interesting anecdote: Fees in Monero are actually based upon the above.

[BldSwtTrs]

I believe the power of Bitcoin and Monero (I see virtually NO other useful blockchain projects) will be stronger than the power of traditional finance.  And as the "big boys" pick it up to "fix" it, control, it etc they will be changed more than it is.

God I hope that is true, I believe it too BUT remains to be seen.

Been in a discussion lately with a good friend (only real world person I know who's also into crypto) and his confidence has been badly shaken by the speed and depth of this CryptoWinter period we're in now.

I still believe, however.

Question remains, you said "bitcoin and monero" and XMR of course but... WHICH "bitcoin"??

I think there are a few other possible worthy contenders too... DigiByte appears possibly the last genuine opportunity to buy ANY "real crypto" under a penny.

Oh, maybe even Doge too, LOL.

But not much else, really.  

Either it'll all fail or one of these, XMR BTC BCH DGB DOGE (any others?) -OR- something that does NOT EXIST yet... will prevail.

P.S. {Edit} Forgot left out Litecoin in there... only on the *theory* that MAYBE if BTC really becomes "gold for bankers" and $50 transaction fees to move $1 Million per coin, then little-brother LTC tags along becoming as the transaction-purpose coin.  This is the THEORY I believe Litecoiners cling to, but... anyone really believe it will actually play out this way???  I have no clue so don't attack me on it, just sayin'... LOL

When it comes to cryptowinter.  Yeah it's hard.  And this one has been soul crushing to me at times. And I do not think it is quite over.   I am a terrible trader, so I do not trade.  That is not why I am interested in BTC and XMR.  But look at my join date (not a brag... if only I was smart enough then to buy the 5000 BTC I considered buying on my porch when it was ~$2.).  I have seen several of these winters.

As to the "Which is the real BTC?".  I have an EXTREMELY strong option on this.  There is ONE Bitcoin.  And it is BTC.  We could go into the depth of reasons why, but it's not for this thread.  Craig Wright is a conman.  Ver is a troubled narcissistic idealist.  And for different reasons they have tried to wrestle the title of Bitcoin away from BTC and have created two centralized shitcoins and done great damage to the reputation of crypto.  Could I be wrong?  Sure... and I will pay dearly for it if I am.  My bet is where my belief is.

Here's the thing.  Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money is either going to be successful or not.  If it is not then we have seen the peak.  It will never have another all time high.  BCHABC, BCHSV, XRP, ETH, ALL the ICOs, and virtually ALL the ALTS are *NOT* decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money.

But if it is successful then then I think next upswing (whether its in a month or 5 years) will be so shocking that the average public will not believe it.  The mechanics of the system and the unprecedented nature of this invention will cause a most breathtaking effect when they kick in.

And Monero is the only complimentary blockchain that *is* Decentralized, permissionless, censorship resistant money but offers something Bitcoin CANNOT.  That is an opaque blockchain.  Bitcoin will never do that.  Layer two can be as MimbleWimbled as they like...  but layer one will ALWAYS be transparent.

Monero also stands a chance of failure.  Moreso than bitcoin by an order of magnitude in my opinion.  But it also stands a chance to be a continued success in a way no other altcoin can even touch.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm556

Monero offers something else that Bitcoin does not; namely an adaptive block weight and tail minimum emission that allows for scaling on the main chain. This lack of on chain scaling lies at the heart of the BCH split from XBT and the further split of BSV from BCH. When something as simple as increasing the transactions per second that a blockchain requires a a highly controversial and political hard fork it is hardly surprising to see the splits, wars and personality clashes we have in Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.

On another note Bitcoin has already failed since it cannot meet the design purpose in the Satoshi paper namely a peer to peer cash like digital currency. This is primarily due to the fixed block size.

Edit: Litecoin has the same problem as Bitcoin with scaling; namely the fixed block size and falling lock reward.

Hi ArticMine, Bitcoin SV just want to increase the number of transactions and transaction fees without a blocksize limit. What do you think is wrong with this approach?

[ArticMine]

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Hi ArticMine, Bitcoin SV just want to increase the number of transactions and transaction fees without a blocksize limit. What do you think is wrong with this approach?

As I mentioned above. If there is competition between miners then as the block reward goes to zero so do the total fees per block since the "penalty" in terms of block reward is less than that in Monero. At this point there is no incentive for the POW and the coin becomes insecure. The alternative is a mining cartel or monopoly that sets minimum fees. Quite apart from the centralization involved I have serious doubts  such a cartel will be sustainable in the long term since individual members will cheat.

A good current example is Bytecoin which is for the time being is secured by the Bitmain ASICs. The question in my mind is how long will this last as the block reward continues to fall.  The current block reward in Bytecoin per block is ~1200 BCN if one applies the 10^4 factor that would be equivalent to ~0.12 XMR or about 20% of the tail emission in Monero. By the way I prefer to see Bytecoin as the canary in the coal mine for falling block rewards as opposed to the scam in the pre or ninja mine.

[BldSwtTrs]

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Hi ArticMine, Bitcoin SV just want to increase the number of transactions and transaction fees without a blocksize limit. What do you think is wrong with this approach?

As I mentioned above. If there is competition between miners then as the block reward goes to zero so do the total fees per block since the "penalty" in terms of block reward is less than that in Monero. At this point there is no incentive for the POW and the coin becomes insecure. The alternative is a mining cartel or monopoly that sets minimum fees. Quite apart from the centralization involved I have serious doubts  such a cartel will be sustainable in the long term since individual members will cheat.

A good current example is Bytecoin which is for the time being is secured by the Bitmain ASICs. The question in my mind is how long will this last as the block reward continues to fall.  The current block reward in Bytecoin per block is ~1200 BCN if one applies the 10^4 factor that would be equivalent to ~0.12 XMR or about 20% of the tail emission in Monero. By the way I prefer to see Bytecoin as the canary in the coal mine for falling block rewards as opposed to the scam in the pre or ninja mine.

Mmh... let's think in a world where there is no longer any block reward.

Why would the total fees go to zero?

Miners would add as much transactions as they can, adding highest fee transactions first. So I don't see how you end up with "there is no more incentive for the POW".