Mikestang
Legendary

Activity: 1274
Merit: 1001
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November 13, 2019, 05:48:02 PM |
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Spring? It's not even winter yet!
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os2sam
Legendary

Activity: 3586
Merit: 1099
Think for yourself
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November 14, 2019, 12:47:55 AM |
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Spring? It's not even winter yet!
It's spring in Australia
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A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text. Q: Why is top-posting such a bad thing? A: Top-posting. Q: What is the most annoying thing on usenet and in e-mail?
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jimjam123
Member


Activity: 468
Merit: 19
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November 16, 2019, 05:41:59 PM |
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Lets ramp up some PH here again Fellas.... Threw a couple at it today..
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bentoel
Jr. Member

Activity: 78
Merit: 5
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November 19, 2019, 05:07:31 AM |
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Lets ramp up some PH here again Fellas.... Threw a couple at it today..
that's sure, we're here to solve block. the best place to test your luck  12.5 before halving next year.
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-ck (OP)
Legendary

Activity: 4746
Merit: 1718
Ruu \o/
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November 19, 2019, 05:48:10 AM |
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And what happens after halving? Will Bitcoin get cheaper? Or more expensive? How will this affect the complexity of the network? Many questions, few answers)
Difficulty will fall for a bit and then eventually rise back to where it was, and then keep rising. The value of bitcoin people will tell you all sorts of things about, but in my opinion the two are not linked in any way, and any associations people have made with bitcoin value and halving is just associating coincidental movements. I believe the value is dissociated and unrelated.
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Developer/maintainer for cgminer, ckpool/ckproxy, and the -ck kernel 2% Fee Solo mining at solo.ckpool.org -ck
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bentoel
Jr. Member

Activity: 78
Merit: 5
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November 19, 2019, 07:52:13 AM |
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Difficulty will fall for a bit and then eventually rise back to where it was, and then keep rising. The value of bitcoin people will tell you all sorts of things about, but in my opinion the two are not linked in any way, and any associations people have made with bitcoin value and halving is just associating coincidental movements. I believe the value is dissociated and unrelated.
nice point ck, demand and supply That's it. 
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Epochjump
Member


Activity: 129
Merit: 51
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November 19, 2019, 01:07:42 PM |
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And what happens after halving? Will Bitcoin get cheaper? Or more expensive? How will this affect the complexity of the network? Many questions, few answers)
Difficulty will fall for a bit and then eventually rise back to where it was, and then keep rising. The value of bitcoin people will tell you all sorts of things about, but in my opinion the two are not linked in any way, and any associations people have made with bitcoin value and halving is just associating coincidental movements. I believe the value is dissociated and unrelated. My goodness, a voice of reason amongst the din. Jeesus...people look at me like I have three heads when I tell them this. Not to mention the ridiculous assumption that BTC goes up before the halving due to " Less Supply". Huh?? Less supply??? No it is still 21 million. Likely you will see MORE BTC for sale as poorly managed farms go under and liquidate their assets. ( BTC ).
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philipma1957
Legendary
Online
Activity: 4844
Merit: 11872
'The right to privacy matters'
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November 19, 2019, 02:01:12 PM |
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Yeah with 18,000,000 loose and 3,000,000 restricted. we have a supply of 21,000,000
At least 2,000,000 are early coins
So 16,000,000 easy access.
Maybe 1,000,000 of them are lost.
Still makes 15,000,000 that can be moved and shifted with ease.
So dishing out
2016 x 12.5 = 25,200 coins a jump. 2016 x 6.25 = 12,600 coins a jump.
12,600 coins do not make much difference in the easy to get mined coins.
does make a difference for a miner.
does make a difference for a builder like bitmain.
I have always felt that the 3.125 jump will be the key jump.
not this one. As the reward to transaction ratio in a 3.25 block will be critical.
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MoparMiningLLC
aka Stryfe
Legendary
Online
Activity: 2800
Merit: 3350
EIN: 82-3893490
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November 19, 2019, 02:05:29 PM |
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the way I see it, even with a well managed farm, if the rewards half and btc remains where it is, it will still be hard for the farm to stay afloat. Their profit will be cut - by more than half, because what is being cut in half is the revenue not the profit, so their profit may be cut by more than half easily.
I think I will still be ok because at least my machines are way more efficient with using the T17/S17 vs the S9's
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Wuerger
Newbie

Activity: 16
Merit: 1
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November 19, 2019, 03:07:53 PM |
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So dishing out
2016 x 12.5 = 25,200 coins a jump. 2016 x 6.25 = 12,600 coins a jump.
Why not. 2.625.000?
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Mikestang
Legendary

Activity: 1274
Merit: 1001
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November 19, 2019, 05:53:10 PM |
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A lot, if not all, of the big farms started when btc price was less than $500/BTC; I think they will remain profitable for some time to come...
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MoparMiningLLC
aka Stryfe
Legendary
Online
Activity: 2800
Merit: 3350
EIN: 82-3893490
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November 19, 2019, 06:51:55 PM |
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A lot, if not all, of the big farms started when btc price was less than $500/BTC; I think they will remain profitable for some time to come...
btc value is not the issue at hand - profitability is. You state they were profitable when BTC was under $500 that was also when BTC reward was 50 BTC not 25 BTC as BTC was at around $650 when the 2nd halving occurred. Though it was at around $300 about a year before the 2nd halving - if I recall correctly. What I mean is revenue, which will control the profit. However, there is more to revenue than just the BTC value. There is the transaction fees - which could go up and or down, there is the difficulty when it dips the amount of BTC per TH earnings increases and if the difficulty increases the amount of BTC per TH decreases.  but as with the prior halvings it has shown that with the decreased issuance of BTC has caused the value of BTC to increase to match the supply/demand of the market. but if the BTC value does not increase accordingly than there has to be some way for the farms to keep the revenue up. One of the things working for that is the increased efficiency of the newer miners. For years the efficiency was around 80J/TH but now with miners getting around 40J/TH - This increase in efficiency will help boost revenue by reducing the cost. There are many factors indeed and farms will work to remain in the green, of that I agree. But if BTC value goes down instead of going up - it will still tax even the best of farms. I should have went more in depth with my thoughts -and I acknowledge that this is my opinion and could be entirely wrong - but as with all speculation, it is just that speculation.
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o_solo_miner
Legendary

Activity: 2553
Merit: 1530
-> morgen, ist heute, schon gestern <-
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November 19, 2019, 08:43:26 PM |
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пoдcкaжитe мнe гocпoдa-тoвapищи, кaк дoлгo фopмиpyeтcя блoк биткa? и ecли шaнcы eгo взять нa мoeй cкopocти "hashrate1m": "17T", "hashrate5m": "14.8T", "hashrate1hr": "14T", "hashrate1d": "13.7T", "hashrate7d": "12.2T", "lastshare": 1574192977, "workers": 1, "shares": 4310497881, "bestshare": 3528084557.424495, "bestever": 3528084557, "worker": ?
Google translate: "tell me a host of comrades, how long is the cue ball block formed? and if the chances are to take it on my speed" The answer is 42, or to be more prcise, if you got luck statistical spoken: NO
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Epochjump
Member


Activity: 129
Merit: 51
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November 20, 2019, 03:35:23 AM |
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A lot, if not all, of the big farms started when btc price was less than $500/BTC; I think they will remain profitable for some time to come...
btc value is not the issue at hand - profitability is. You state they were profitable when BTC was under $500 that was also when BTC reward was 50 BTC not 25 BTC as BTC was at around $650 when the 2nd halving occurred. Though it was at around $300 about a year before the 2nd halving - if I recall correctly. What I mean is revenue, which will control the profit. However, there is more to revenue than just the BTC value. There is the transaction fees - which could go up and or down, there is the difficulty when it dips the amount of BTC per TH earnings increases and if the difficulty increases the amount of BTC per TH decreases.  but as with the prior halvings it has shown that with the decreased issuance of BTC has caused the value of BTC to increase to match the supply/demand of the market. but if the BTC value does not increase accordingly than there has to be some way for the farms to keep the revenue up. One of the things working for that is the increased efficiency of the newer miners. For years the efficiency was around 80J/TH but now with miners getting around 40J/TH - This increase in efficiency will help boost revenue by reducing the cost. There are many factors indeed and farms will work to remain in the green, of that I agree. But if BTC value goes down instead of going up - it will still tax even the best of farms. I should have went more in depth with my thoughts -and I acknowledge that this is my opinion and could be entirely wrong - but as with all speculation, it is just that speculation. I think you are spot on. Truly the probability of a BTC price drop or flatline into the halving is over 65%. The probability of the Diff rising to flatline is also over 65%. If you're a miner, you better have your house in order prior to the halving. Efficiency up to date and costs dialed down to the lowest possible level. Also, NO DEBT. Institutional money sees the opportunity in sweeping the table on BTC longs and weak miners. Once the bloodletting is in full swing they will strike. Buying up BTC, Cheap Hardware and expanding commercial facilities. This is also my plan.
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jcriss
Jr. Member

Activity: 171
Merit: 1
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November 21, 2019, 05:33:26 AM |
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Imagine logging onto your antminer s4 and seeing this: 7 blocks found? 
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MERCATOX [s (https://mercatox.com?referrer=328710)
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bentoel
Jr. Member

Activity: 78
Merit: 5
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November 21, 2019, 09:37:16 AM |
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Imagine logging onto your antminer s4 and seeing this: 7 blocks found?  but your bestshare just 27,908,683 to solve block you need 12,720,005,267,390 diff BTC now. I thing you found block from 2nd pool = bsod.pw/ ( FxTC Coin)
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jcriss
Jr. Member

Activity: 171
Merit: 1
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November 21, 2019, 01:04:16 PM Last edit: November 26, 2019, 03:34:09 AM by jcriss |
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Imagine logging onto your antminer s4 and seeing this: 7 blocks found?
but your bestshare just 27,908,683 to solve block you need 12,720,005,267,390 diff BTC now. I thing you found block from 2nd pool = bsod.pw/ ( FxTC Coin) that would be likely what I would have suspected but as you see no shares submitted to that pool.... so that's impossible to have found 7 blocks on BSOD pool.... But would like more input tho 
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MERCATOX [s (https://mercatox.com?referrer=328710)
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NotFuzzyWarm
Legendary

Activity: 4354
Merit: 3433
Evil beware: We have waffles!
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November 21, 2019, 02:04:21 PM |
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Imagine logging onto your antminer s4 and seeing this: 7 blocks found?<snip>
Damn, still running one of them? Talk about a power hungry beast! Definitely the best looking miner BM ever made  I still have one of mine from ever so long ago now sitting in storage and donated 2 others to Sidehack that he used to use as heaters. As to the 7 blocks in 4 days -- has to be a bug in the old cgminer software as it is simply not possible. Perhaps it is tied to the diff being astronomically higher these days vs when the s4 was made?
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jcriss
Jr. Member

Activity: 171
Merit: 1
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November 21, 2019, 02:11:34 PM Last edit: November 21, 2019, 09:24:54 PM by jcriss |
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Imagine logging onto your antminer s4 and seeing this: 7 blocks found?<snip>
Damn, still running one of them? Talk about a power hungry beast! Definitely the best looking miner BM ever made  I still have one of mine from ever so long ago now sitting in storage and donated 2 others to Sidehack that he used to use as heaters. lol I heat my garage with it as a space heater is 1800w, the s4 is 1000w and knocks the chill off well! I run it from nov 1st to around march 31st. this is the first time I have ever seen it show foundblocks I have ran it for 3 winters now??? I'm confused maybe CK could explain a little on it tho I know he HATES BM
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MERCATOX [s (https://mercatox.com?referrer=328710)
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jimjam123
Member


Activity: 468
Merit: 19
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November 21, 2019, 11:29:00 PM |
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I had one of My S9’s with 99 blocks found with CK as the primary. This was a last year or so when there was all of that flooding in China. I really thought i hit a few. Anyway, just a shit coin on the secondary pool... I will try to look for a picture of this, cant seem to find out at the moment.
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