ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[conv3rsion]

One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.

In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.

I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.

[Rebelution]

One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.

In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.

I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.

True, but this is just one of the many, many ways that Friedcat can steal from his shareholders considering its a completely unregulated market, there are no verifiable financials, no verifiable inventories, no way to confirm the miners aren't mining under other addresses, etc.  All of it is based on trust.  If you don't trust Friedcat to not screw us over, then you should not "invest" (gamble really).

[bingjiw]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

[GoldenWings91]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

Mircea Popescu runs MPEX which is an exchange that ASICMiner refused to be listed on. He's been attacking AM ever since so anything he says should be taken with scepticism.

[murfshake]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

Pretty bad article actually.

[superduh]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

Pretty bad article actually.

yes, quite bad -

[romerun]

too long to read but one mpex mistake for sure is deciding to charge 30btc for membership and losing most of bitcoin trading action to bitfunder/btct/havelock and yet never accept it.

[Rebelution]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

Wow, this guy lives in a completely delusional world although there a couple of decent points in there.  For example:

"They strike me as fundamentally honest people struggling to make the best of a complex situation with numerous constraints and a lot of novel problems."

But most of it is just ridiculously stupid:

-Suggesting AM should be more like Satoshi Dice
-"Actually having priced an asset, through the market process, free perhaps the first time since the 1800s." --Umm anyone is free to buy and sell it now...
-"Ownership transfer, from risk-friendly, low capital boys to risk-averse, high capital men."--No risk averse investor would touch any bitcoin security with a ten foot pole.

[Manna]

With the last increasement in price of bitcoin, selling started again. It´s clear, with price higher the company gets more value, but actually its an overvalue.
Thats the only bad thing about investing in BTC, when BTC price is on the rise, share price will fall.
Cheap shares yeah, but lack of liquidity don´t let you sell your shares you hold as fast as you want too. Especially when price is increasing during sleeping time, because Bitcoin markets are open 24 hours. That´s another problem.
I know most people know this, but I just wanted to make that clear.

[kopipe]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

MPex is completely irrelevant to everyone except the poor souls who bought into it.

[Vycid]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

Mircea Popescu is a narcissistic windbag. Stop giving him your attention.

[Jutarul]

http://trilema.com/2013/the-analysis-of-a-failure-asicminer/

Mircea Popescu runs MPEX which is an exchange that ASICMiner refused to be listed on. He's been attacking AM ever since so anything he says should be taken with scepticism.

The official position of bitfountain was to only manage claims of direct shareholders (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1571278#msg1571278), and that hasn't changed.

I don't really understand the hostility towards ASICMINER in the article. If the author is upset with the current situation he is free to offer a solution to the market using available means to establish a solid pricing mechanism. And last time I checked, the existing pass-thrus seemed to do an acceptable job. Also there are constantly auctions on the auction forum.

I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

[houseofchill]

One thing that everyone should realize that its in Friedcat's interest for the share price to decrease significantly right before rolling out a 2nd generation of hardware or products. Why? Because he is the only person that knows exactly what the company is planning to do AND while he cannot sell his existing shares without those actions being known (via the blockchain), he can buy cheaply from others much more anonymously.

In other words, if you're Friedcat and you know the plans for the next 6 months or so, you can increase your company ownership much easier by first withholding dividends and / or newly purchased hardware for some period of time, then purchasing additional shares (on whatever market) at a reduced price. This is insider trading, but since this is a virtual market, there is no protection against it.

I'm not accusing Friedcat of anything, I'm simply explaining a consequence of the current market. I'm here for the dividends, the share price has lost 50% of its value, and it would take over 18 months for reduced dividends to make up the difference, but at the company's current valuation, I'm much more of a buyer than a seller.

And the psychology here, people don't talk about AM like a long term business. It's as if the whole operation is valued on engineering project and just hash rates.  How come people never guess what friedcat sees about AM's leading role in bitcoin and into the future?  I guess friedcat plays it close to the chest.  From a trust point view, he's laid out many many pages and what he has said he has always done on point.  From the business plans down to never increasing 400K shares of FountainBit.

[JordanL]

I am part of a company set up to sell and service ASICMINER Block Erupter hardware for miners in nearly every country on earth:

https://2asic.com

In addition to the contact information on the website, you may private messages me here regarding our products.

Get yours while supplies last!

[ThickAsThieves]

I am part of a company set up to sell and service ASICMINER Block Erupter hardware for miners in nearly every country on earth:

https://2asic.com

In addition to the contact information on the website, you may private messages me here regarding our products.

Get yours while supplies last!

Neat!

[lophie]

What really has shown itself many times is the effect of Bitcoin exchange price to the Bitcoin stock markets. The link is because some people look at Bitcoin as an investment and they park their coins in stocks to even grow them. Then when Bitcoin price shoots they pull some coins to fiat hence the decline in share prices.

But the percentage of the drop in proportions is simply higher than the liquidity pulled. Is it the FUD effect?

I hope this FUD effect would help clean the market of weak knees so it can grow stronger and more stable. In mean while lets enjoy cheap shares of ASICMINER.

Regarding the competition, We now see potential competitor hashrate wise but really what about expanding? None got clear views and progress but ASICMINER.

[DebitMe]

I am part of a company set up to sell and service ASICMINER Block Erupter hardware for miners in nearly every country on earth:

https://2asic.com

In addition to the contact information on the website, you may private messages me here regarding our products.

Get yours while supplies last!

Is there no option to order with bitcoin? I looked through the currency options but didn't see bitcoin at all

[JordanL]

I am part of a company set up to sell and service ASICMINER Block Erupter hardware for miners in nearly every country on earth:

https://2asic.com

In addition to the contact information on the website, you may private messages me here regarding our products.

Get yours while supplies last!

Is there no option to order with bitcoin? I looked through the currency options but didn't see bitcoin at all

Yes, you can pay with Bitcoins. It is not currently in our currency drop-down list, the price will be converted to BTC on the checkout page.

[stripykitteh]

I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.

Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:

- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand

etc etc

When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:

- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors

which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.

[houseofchill]

What really has shown itself many times is the effect of Bitcoin exchange price to the Bitcoin stock markets. The link is because some people look at Bitcoin as an investment and they park their coins in stocks to even grow them. Then when Bitcoin price shoots they pull some coins to fiat hence the decline in share prices.

But the percentage of the drop in proportions is simply higher than the liquidity pulled. Is it the FUD effect?

I hope this FUD effect would help clean the market of weak knees so it can grow stronger and more stable. In mean while lets enjoy cheap shares of ASICMINER.

Regarding the competition, We now see potential competitor hashrate wise but really what about expanding? None got clear views and progress but ASICMINER.

Ah I didn't think other ppl saw bitcoin stocks that way to invest fiat, and so they simply want to cash in when bitcoin goes higher..  I'd rather see my bitcoin stocks as bitcoins in the end.

No other minining company like BFL or Avalon has any success like AM, but the wild west market can be crazy. I can see AM as a financial services company like a new kind of bank. The new USBs can be adapted to hardware wallets that can go on keychains. Guess it's still early to think like an investor instead of like a speculator. I'll enjoy cheap shares then in the meanwhile.