ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Aedius]

Vycid, no one cares about your 'thoughts' or disillusions. ASICMINER does not need to expand outside of their core competencies to be incredibly successful and there isn't really any valid reason to with the BTC market cap so small. ASICMINER is the best in the business of BTC mining and hardware sales and is working on adding another revenue stream through franchising.

If you knew anything about business and start-ups, you'd know that the successful ones focus on what they're best at and continually work on improving that main aspect of their business. I'd much rather have AM focus on what they're best at and not start throwing money that would otherwise be paid as dividends into unproven business strategies/markets.

[1713311276]

1713311276

[1713311276]

1713311276

[1713311276]

1713311276

[Elokane]

Why are you acting so rudely towards him? If you think his arguments are weak, refute them.
Calling him names only makes everyone else feel you're not comfortable in your position and perhaps don't really have an argument.

[Rebelution]

So, now that I'm behind a real keyboard and things are calmed down a bit (yes, I was on my phone - all my posts today were made from a Galaxy S3. Samsung should put me in a commercial), I'm going to share my thoughts on the update. While the fact that FC hasn't gone incommunicado is definitely a positive sign for longs, I believe that the content of the message is markedly less bullish than the reaction implied.

Update

We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.

This is a good thing. Any movement of AM toward transparency is positive, in my book, although longs should be aware that transparency can be a double-edged sword. If things are going well, it will get noticed. If they are going poorly, it will get noticed. It may end up increasing volatility.

Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.

I've talked before about AM and its refusal to grow beyond an ASIC company. Certainly the upsides of expanding their business with the BTC market in the 1-2B USD range are limited, but if BTC never grows beyond 1-2B USD then AM is in deep shit to start with (FC loves to talk about transaction fees to justify valuation). Their cashflow should allow them to explore and capitalize on new business prospects far better than a start-up. Why is AM so lacking in vision?

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.

This is a bad sign. Sure, their hashrate hasn't decreased, but they're having trouble managing their hardware at 50 TH. On the bright side, they managed to maintain a stable hashrate for a pretty long period of time, so it's not something they're incapable of, but it's not the trend you want. Downtime was more expected and forgivable close to launch.

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

I'm gonna address these two at once.

The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.

This is CEO-speak for "we didn't expect this, but we have a plan". Which is unsurprising, since there's still something like 500 TH of Avalon chips still due for delivery, god knows how many BFL units, 100TH/Bitfury firing up, et al. (One must wonder where AM would have been if Avalon and BFL had delivered on time.)

The reason I know it was unexpected is that FC is curtailing dividends to save up for more devices in Sept/Oct. If things were exactly as expected, competent leadership would have known the amount of money required in advance, and smoothed out that deduction over many dividends. Instead, FC decided to cut deeply into this dividend, and the next few (apparently).

So that's either a management failure, or AM recognizes they are in a tighter spot than they expected. Take your pick.

Either way, I suspect that the market was operating on the assumption that AM had already the funds they needed for new devices, so these reduced dividends are a negative surprise. A correction is to be expected.

Finally,

The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.

This means "we plan to play catch-up when other firms have finished localizing in the regions where electricity and rent are cheapest."

tl;dr - Friedcat is making all the right moves and has great vision, so please implement these crappy ideas so I can execute my put options.  Also here is my best attempt at negatively spinning the good news.

[velacreations]

first it was that whales were about to dump.  Then we heard from one whale that talked with other whales, and it appears that at least some whales are holding and buying.  

Vycid still maintains that whales are about to dump, even though all evidence suggests the contrary. Did he post evidence to support his position?   I encourage Vycid to back up this argument with statements from whales that indicate they are about to dump.

Haven't we been hearing from Vycid that FC didn't have a plan for competition, that they weren't fixing the mining issues, and there was no new investment?  FC directly addressed a number of Vycid's arguments, and now, Vycid is saying that explanation is bad.  What's it going to take to satisfy this guy?

Well, you can't have it both ways, but for someone that only wants FUD, they'll see bad in anything. I mean, just a few pages ago, he was suggesting that FC was going to scam us, because he hadn't posted an update in a while.  

The true sign of an fanatic is if despite changing information, they cannot change their stance.  So, I ask Vycid, what information would change your stance on AM (or even admit that you have been wrong on a number of things)?  If you say "nothing", then we have no more to discuss.

[supert]

Why are you acting so rudely towards him? If you think his arguments are weak, refute them.
Calling him names only makes everyone else feel you're not comfortable in your position and perhaps don't really have an argument.

I actually AGREE with (some) of his arguments.

But his replies use language in a way a politician does -- to evoke a particular response, rather than to arrive at the truth through discourse.

That is trolling.



EDIT: to which I might add, a very successful troll. The thread has become about Vycid. Can we go back to discussing AM?

[JaredR26]

ANYONE concerned with how much money the company is PAYING in dividends is not thinking properly.

The amount the company PAYS in dividends is irrelevant to the value of the company. The relevant values are how much the company EARNS, and how the company is run/reinvests in itself.

(Unless you don't trust Friedcat, in which case you should not be investing at all).

Earnings aren't much lower than normal. All of us should be hoping that Friedcat will reinvest the lion's share of the capital in getting to the better chips faster. Because that is how the company will thrive long term. Dividends are just a perk and a distraction for any serious long term investor.

[velacreations]

EDIT: to which I might add, a very successful troll. The thread has become about Vycid. Can we go back to discussing AM?

I'm with you on this one.  Let's talk about what sort of hash rate AM needs to be producing in Sep/Oct to stay ahead. I think an extra 200TH/s will easily maintain our network percentage through December.  I don't see the network being over 2 PT/s by the end of the year.

So, what does 200TH/s cost for AM to produce?

[supert]

in an attempt to get us back on track...

The next gen chips will deploy in the late autumn according to friendlycat.

- will the competition from 28nm chips arrive before or after or ever?
- will the gen 2 chips compete?

(EDIT: thanks vela)

[bitfair]

If I'm not entirely mistaken, the 200 TH/s order was paid for in full already a long time ago (early June?). The fact that FC is withholding dividends to pay for something now must mean another order is on the way.

Since he spoke of reaching 800-1000 TH/s by the end of the year, I will speculate that part of these chips are already in production - which is definitely good news!

[TheSwede75]

Speculation aside, ASICMINER is still a high growth company that pays 10% plus yearly dividends, has a very sound income and is run by people that has time and again proven to be able to reach 80%+ margins on high value electronics while providing niche leading support.

[velacreations]

in an attempt to get us back on track...

The next gen chips will deploy in the late autumn according to friendlycat.

- will the competition from 28nm chips arrive before or after or ever?
- will the gen 2 chips compete?

If he's talking October, it is likely that he will be ahead of a lot of the 28 nm tech that is coming down the pipes.  I seriously question some of the timelines I've seen thrown around out there.  That being said, if gen 2 comes before mid-October, AM will be in the lead.

The true test will be cost, though.  Being the first to release 28 nm tech will not have the same advantages as being the only one currently delivering hardware.  AM will not only need to provide the new tech, but do it at a cost that can beat the rush of chips hitting the market in Oct/Nov.

If I'm not entirely mistaken, the 200 TH/s order was paid for in full already a long time ago (early June?). The fact that FC is withholding dividends to pay for something now must mean another order is on the way.

Since he spoke of reaching 800-1000 TH/s by the end of the year, I will speculate that part of these chips are already in production - which is definitely good news!

yeah, I think 200 TH/s on hand for deployment is more than enough to keep the 10% network percentage through the end of the year.  Of course, if you have more, you can sell and deploy more.

[velacreations]

Speculation aside, ASICMINER is still a high growth company that pays 10% plus yearly dividends, has a very sound income and is run by people that has time and again proven to be able to reach 80%+ margins on high value electronics while providing niche leading support.

+1  and typically 30% plus yearly dividends.

[Rebelution]

in an attempt to get us back on track...

The next gen chips will deploy in the late autumn according to friendlycat.

- will the competition from 28nm chips arrive before or after or ever?
- will the gen 2 chips compete?

If he's talking October, it is likely that he will be ahead of a lot of the 28 nm tech that is coming down the pipes.  I seriously question some of the timelines I've seen thrown around out there.  That being said, if gen 2 comes before mid-October, AM will be in the lead.

The true test will be cost, though.  Being the first to release 28 nm tech will not have the same advantages as being the only one currently delivering hardware.  AM will not only need to provide the new tech, but do it at a cost that can beat the rush of chips hitting the market in Oct/Nov.

If I'm not entirely mistaken, the 200 TH/s order was paid for in full already a long time ago (early June?). The fact that FC is withholding dividends to pay for something now must mean another order is on the way.

Since he spoke of reaching 800-1000 TH/s by the end of the year, I will speculate that part of these chips are already in production - which is definitely good news!

yeah, I think 200 TH/s on hand for deployment is more than enough to keep the 10% network percentage through the end of the year.  Of course, if you have more, you can sell and deploy more.

Do we know that AM's second gen will be 28 nm?

[redbeans2012]

Sold my shares a couple months ago, decided to get back in today.  Friedcat is a smart fellow..

[velacreations]

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.

I think this is a great development.  Personally, I would love to see what hardware revenue is just as easily as we see mining revenue right now.  Hopefully, they'll also do one for franchising revenue, too.

[TheSwede75]

Sold my shares a couple months ago, decided to get back in today.  Friedcat is a smart fellow..

I think a lot of people that are panicking are forgetting that ASICMINER is pretty much the only company to date to have an actual solid history of under promising and over performing. Is the valuation high? Of course. But I also believe that investors SHOULD pay a premium for track record. I am of course very bullish when it comes to Labcoin, but I also realize that uncertainty comes at a discount and proven ability at a premium, it's really not strange.

How many people invest in Berkshire Hathaway based on their portfolio stricture vs. the proven track record of Warren Buffet?

[bitman442]

ANYONE concerned with how much money the company is PAYING in dividends is not thinking properly.

The amount the company PAYS in dividends is irrelevant to the value of the company. The relevant values are how much the company EARNS, and how the company is run/reinvests in itself.

(Unless you don't trust Friedcat, in which case you should not be investing at all).

Earnings aren't much lower than normal. All of us should be hoping that Friedcat will reinvest the lion's share of the capital in getting to the better chips faster. Because that is how the company will thrive long term. Dividends are just a perk and a distraction for any serious long term investor.

Exactly. I think most shareholders are more than willing to sacrifice part of their divs for R&D, but we kneed to know when it's happening or people just start assuming that a low div. equals Asicminer going down in flames. On the bright side though, it gives us a chance to buy up some cheap shares!

[nubbins]

Why are you acting so rudely towards him? If you think his arguments are weak, refute them.
Calling him names only makes everyone else feel you're not comfortable in your position and perhaps don't really have an argument.

+1! Let's discuss the situation like grown-ups!

Or, y'know, just call each other delusional trolls. Totally worth reading

[Rannasha]

ANYONE concerned with how much money the company is PAYING in dividends is not thinking properly.

The amount the company PAYS in dividends is irrelevant to the value of the company. The relevant values are how much the company EARNS, and how the company is run/reinvests in itself.

(Unless you don't trust Friedcat, in which case you should not be investing at all).

Earnings aren't much lower than normal. All of us should be hoping that Friedcat will reinvest the lion's share of the capital in getting to the better chips faster. Because that is how the company will thrive long term. Dividends are just a perk and a distraction for any serious long term investor.

Exactly. I think most shareholders are more than willing to sacrifice part of their divs for R&D, but we kneed to know when it's happening or people just start assuming that a low div. equals Asicminer going down in flames. On the bright side though, it gives us a chance to buy up some cheap shares!

I think this is an issue with weekly dividends. Using part of the revenue for R&D costs or some non-recurring expense is immediately reflected in the dividends. Non-BTC companies often pay dividends yearly, or even less frequently. But with the volatility of the BTC market, anything less frequent than weekly dividends seems to be frowned upon. And while frequent dividends are demanded by most, many don't seem to accept the consequence of high variation in dividends that comes with it.

If you want your dividends to be constant and/or predictable, buy some bonds or mining contracts, rather than actual stocks.

[SilentSonicBoom]

Friedcat has honored the .1, both through his resellers and direct.

I know this because I have received block eruptors for .1 from both his resellers and direct.

Was it fully or partially honored?

Last time I checked only 30% of previous purchases were eligible to the promo due to limited inventory.

What is questionned here is the remaining 70%

When did you hear this?  And where?

2 weeks ago from SilentSonicBoom in PMs sent to his customers to communicate the promo details. He said 30% limit was from friedcat and if it was lifted he would update us.

I will ping him to check since, I see at least 2 resellers that are honoring 100%.

I would be a little suspicious of "SilentSonicBoom".  If he indeed got that 30% limit directly from Friedcat, then all the other resellers would be in the same boat.   Sounds like bullshit to me.. and a very easy way to keep cheaper units for himself

Just seen this post and had to reply. My 30% promo was handled for my customers. They come from friedcat, I pay the same 0.10 btc to receive them as those that get them pay, and I ship them out. Have a nice day.