BTC wciąż nie może przełamać wsparcia na 18k, mimo że indeksy USA wybijają wciąż coraz niższe dołki. Dzisiejszy odczyt inflacji był wyższy niż szacowano, ale mniejszy niż ostatnio( prev 8.3, now 8.2 est 8.1)
Zaczyna wyglądać to jak akumulacja na btc, wzrost wolumenu przy zmniejszeniu się zmienności, przebita linia trendu. W odróżnieniu od btc niektóre alty tuż przed odczytem inflacji zaczęły wybijać lokalne dołki, np, cardano. Wystąpiła również relatywnie mała zmienność na btc w porównaniu do spx, SPX w godzinę po odczycie spadł 2.83% natomiast btc tylko 1.96%, to pokazuję tylko jak zmęczony rynek jest tymi ciągłymi spadkami
Chyba potwierdzi się to, co napisałem jakiś czas temu, że ATH dla SP500 było 2 miesiące po tym jak BTC zaczał już spadać. Możliwe, że tak samo będzie z dołkiem i BTC zacznie już rosnąć jak SP500 będzie spadać jeszcze przez kilka miesięcy. Mówię o średnioterminowym dołku (przed rajdem do 30-50k), bo obecne zawirowania w gospodarce mogą przez koleją dekadę nam się odbijać czkawką nie dając powietrza do wzrostów. Miejsca do spadków faktycznie jakby nie było. Wczoraj z impetem uderzyliśmy w wsparcie, które trzyma od 3 miesięcy i jeszcze szybciej od niego odskoczyliśmy. Wolumeny zacne jak na 3 miesięczną konsolidację. Linia trendu naszkicowana przez Flangler1, która trzyma od ATH (prawie rok) wczoraj została złamana. Wygląda ciekawie. Czyżby pora na odreagowanie? Idzie zima, na froncie może się uspokoi, "miesiące krachów" się kończą (wrzesień-październik). Jest nadzieja.Zobaczymy, czy utrzyma, czy to kolejne już fakowe wybicie. |
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@OP any decentralized solution wont give you any insurance. Even the best smart contracts can be hacked (for instance most recent 600 mln BNB bridge hack). Centralized solution is not safe too because "not your keys not your coins" and in worse case scenario - if users money are worth more than their reputation, in their opinion ... they will most likely take your money. So far "Binance" with SAFU.
Binance is the best place I think. Just wanted to add that not everything available on binance is "SAFU". Binance has various staking products and part of them are provided by other companies. Its always worth to read TOS before trying anything. As I can see they splited binance earn to 2 sections: "Principal Protected The same number of tokens deposited to Savings and Staking will be returned to you along with yields paid out in the same type of token. See our Terms & Conditions and FAQs for more details." "(High Yield) Higher Potential Rewards An opportunity to receive higher than average gains but with corresponding risks to your invested cryptocurrencies. Only invest what you can afford to risk, regardless of how high the potential rates of return." |
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I feel like the ETH market has done what it needed to in this market. It has already made all those who were likely to sell, dump their bags. I mean is there really more down side after everything? :/ I used to think yes. But somehow I'm slowly not convinced anymore.
Whole market is very oversold. I agree with you about bitcoin - close to bottom and everyone who wanted to sell already sold. But I'm not that sure about ETH. I think that "pre merge" buyers hoping for "post merge" pump did dump all their bags yet. ETH needs few more month to clear from them. So my pick for ETH is that it will either go down if whole market will go down or underperform if whole market will bounce. |
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There is a lot of talk about how Bitcoin mining incentivises the creation of cheaper energy, but what is not often talked about is how it also incentivises the creation of cheaper computation.
I think bitcoin is not big enough yet to incentivizes the creation of cheaper computation. According to studies gamers consumes similar electricity as bitcoin mining: "Based on our very rough estimates, we found that the worldwide electricity consumption of people playing video games is 46% higher than the total consumption of Bitcoin mining as of November 2019." https://braiins.com/blog/bitcoin-mining-vs-gamingEspecially that its a way cheaper to find less expensive energy source (just move a farm to different country) rather than improve efficiency of computation. |
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Dziś kolejny BNB burn. Mimo roku bear marketu, mimo rezygnacji z prowizji z handlu bitcoinem binance spalił rekordową ilość coinów (najwięcej od 1.5 roku).  Dziwnym zbiegiem okoliczności spalono mniej więcej tyle ile ukradziono  Swoją droga pokazuje to siłę binance. największy hack w histori krypto to tylko 20% kwartalnych zysków binance (bo mniej więcej tyle zawsze było palone) |
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"The exploit earlier referred to, that took place on the cross-chain bridge, BSC Token Hub, resulted in extra mining of BNB. The loss is on BNB Chain, users were not affected. A total of 2 million BNB (nearly $ 570 million) were effectively minted and taken by the hacker. Through off-chain coordination, global BSC (BNB Smart Chain) validators volunteered to upgrade so that the majority of the fund remained in the exploiter's address, while partners helped secure funds on other chains as well. These funds could not be moved. Nearly $ 570 million were minted and taken by the hacker. $100 million remain unrecovered and moved off chain by the hacker. No users or users funds were affected." https://www.bnbchain.org/en/blog/bnb-chain-a-decentralized-response/jak dobrze rozumiem, to 570 mln zostało skradzione z czego 100 mln jest nie do odzyskania a reszta została zablokowana tak? Hack dotyczył wykreaowania nowych jednostek BNB, zwiększając supply chaina o 1.2% nie dotykająć użytkowników (tylko inwestorów) tak? |
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"Bank of England announces additional measures to support market functioning" https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/october/bank-of-england-announces-additional-measures-to-support-market-functioningW ekonomi pęka. Bank centralny Anglii (BOE) zwiększa skup obligacji na tydzień przed planowanym zakończeniem "chwilowego luzowania". Wszystko wskazuje na to, że nie zakończą swojego programu 14.10.2022, bo 10 letnie obligacje brytyjskie nie wydają się wierzyć w poprawę. A gdy kurs leci jak kamień, a główny kupujący ma za 2 dni przestać kupować, to rodzi się pytanie co wtedy. Jedną z odpowiedzi jest powrót do dodruku na pełną moc drukarki. Umacniający się dolar również negatywnie wpływa na cały świat. W powietrzu wisi Plaza Accord 2.0 - https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porozumienie_z_Plaza - "Konsekwencje porozumienia - W ciągu następnych dwóch lat kurs dolara spadł o około 50%" |
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BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:
1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates
The one thing you seams to forget. Market does not estimates present. It always tries to calcualate 1 year ahead. Its not that everything bad needs to stop and we have to have flow of good news to see a bottom. Bottom will be 1 year before first good news from economy. Same was in 2008. The biggest amount of bad news was right on the market bottom. So if now "macroeconomic view looks like trash" it doesnt mean we have to go anymore lower. Also bitcoin reached ATH 3 month before SP500. Its possible that bitcoin will reach the bottom 3 months before SP500 which will reach the bottom 1 year before first good news from economy. Also fiats are going down at a rate >10% per year so sooner or later fiat denominated assets needs to stop falling. Its not regular recession. Its stagflation. Like in 1970-1980. |
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An interesting fact immediately emerges: the regression from 2019 is steeper than that of 2017,
that is, on the average of recent years, the price rises more than the older average;
intuitively I would never have said that, but it seems that recently the price has started to rise again
more aggressively than in the past.
The regression from 2013 was also steeper than that of 2015 while 2017 was more flat. Its because of market cycles and random cutoff date gives random end resoults (100x pump than -85% dump and 40x pump, 90% dump and so on). The one thing is certain. Each bull market is weaker, volatility goes down so I expect exponential regressions line that starts in 2021 to be even more flat which makes 2025 target @ 200k$ unlikely (based on this one indicator only) |
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The Blockchain bridge is Useless because there is a reason behind this. All types of bridges have common security flaw that turns Blockchain into vulnerability and hackers can attack easily.  And also Blockchain bridge makes things more centralized. And currently BNB 600 million dollars hack indicates that we should stay away from this. well... If you dont use blockchain and only invest in projects and hope for pump then yes ... in your perspective bridges are useless. But for person who needs to switch from 1 blockchain to another from time to time there is only 1 alternative which is a centralized exchange which is even bigger vulnerability. |
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It shuld be a little bit lower but not too low to avoid selling bottom during flash crash events. Should not be placed higher becasue price can go down, trigger your order and continue to go down without filling it exposing you to unlimited losess.
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Fun fact is that we have Ubisoft, IE, Activision Blizzard, Epic Games, Gameloft, Square Enix, Bungie Inc and they all do shit in last decade. Really. GTA5 is a game from 2013!! And look at twitch (most popular gaming streaming platform) - its in top 3 most watched game.  Its 2022 and they sell more than in 2014-2018. Because there is nothing better to play. Most awaited game of 2018-2020 was cyberpunk2077. Ended up being bugged, overhyped game that lost most of players almost immediately. And now I should be excited about "their first game called Web3 War which is a first-person shooter"? It will most likely fail. Whole gaming on blockchain is rather weak idea because: 1-you game for fun not to earn 2-no one wants to invest in this because you are in fact "paying someone to play a game" 3-its not 1970. Its 2022 and whole industry is very overcrowded. So if game made by pros made 100% to entertain users is loosing players in long run how a game made by newbies made as a "game to earn" or "game on blockchain" will stop them from leaving? 4-how a game that is loosing players in long run can hold prices of items? ... and many more |
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(China probably won't see much growth and is seeing its own economic downturn even before rejecting western vaccines).
Especially with hausing boubble that is anormous:  And reverse wealth effect, unemployment spike, and deleverage of whole system, that we will see after it break... China itself is close to recession if not depression. So its possible that this time is not about "transition of power in 10-20 years" but rather several generations (fe. 100 years) of poverty after centuries of prosperity for whole word. |
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I think the most popular synthetic asset is BTCDOWN and BTCUP tokens available on binance or BEAR, BULL (3X Short/Long Bitcoin Token) available on FTX. So we have such options but they are not that popular because they performe poorelly on such volatile market as crypto market is.
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Inflation happens when the demand/supply equilibrium of money is disrupted through numerous causes.
Supply/demand AND velocity (the rate of currency circulation). If we print 20% more money but lock people in homes (covid) or we make them fearful about future, we will not see an inflation because people will not spend their extra money. But as soon as we will let them spend their savings inflation will explode. Thats what happened in 2020-2022. One thing to remember about money printing and inflation is that it doesn't have to happen immediately. For example a part of inflation in US today is because of the money printed in 2020 pandemic.
Yep. It takes a lot of time to cause/stop inflation. 1-print 2-house/stock bubble 3-weath effect ( https://www.nber.org/digest/aug19/new-estimates-stock-market-wealth-effect) 4-more spending 5-prices goes up 6-stimulus checks 7-more spending 8-prices goes up 9-more income for companies 10-more spending from companies workers/invesors 11-prices goes up 12-more income for companies 13-more spending from companies workers/invesors 14-prices goes up 15-production does not catch up 16-prices explode 17-salaries does not catch up 18-demand goes down 19-companies goes bust 20-supply drops 21-prices explode 22-everything breaks 22 points. Looots of time. Years. |
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Według oficjalnego ogłoszenia skradziono 2 mln BNB (przy cenie 300$ mamy 600 mln$). https://www.bnbchain.org/en/blog/bnb-chain-ecosystem-update/W najbliższym czasie ma się odbyć głosowanie co zrobić z tą kasą. Czy zamrozić czy nie, czy pokryć z burnów, czy nie itp. Mnie zastanawia brak reakcji rynku. 600 mln$ ! To przebija kucoin hack (ok 300 mln) i czyni go największym hakiem w histori krypto. Nie tyle co bitcoin nie zareagował, ale nawet BNB nie zareagowało. 3% spadek, który obserwujemy to sporo za mało. BNBHACKINU token i zrobił rug pull na 40ETH kilka godzin pózniej, co najlepsze na tym nie koniec, chwile pózniej zrobił to samo z kolejnym tokenem HACKERSHIBA
Podobno już 60 ETH. Ale wydaje mi się, że binance zablokuje skradzione środki. Tak samo jak podczas kucoin hack. Więc to 60 ETH to może być jedyny zysk hakera. |
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7 years in stocks 5 years in crypto and I can say that it is possible to make money from day trading in the long run but its not worth the effort. You will waste a lot of time, your head will turn gray,
trouble sleeping, trouble with stress, you will get sick (neurosis, stomach ulcers), family problems. All of those to barely (or not) outperform wide market in long run. Its much better to enjoy life and symilar returns with well balanced portfolio and medium/long term trades.
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Trading bots needs constant reviews otherwise it will just be like an advanced gambling tool in the hands of a trader. It can trade a 1000X faster but it only works based on how it was programmed and when the market gets complex or outside the model it was trained with it makes silly preds. Bots are nice when a trader uses them as a complementary too and not as an automated signal generator
It depends on what type of bot we are talking. Arbitrage/triangular arbitrage/marketmakers bots can trade 24/7 almost without a human. And even if we are talking about a regular bot that tries to do what humans are (investing long/medium/short term) its still much better. Of course its not a tool that you buy and run and it will generate cash for you. You need to know what you are doing but I'm far from this: Again I don't think using trading bot is a good idea at all. We should trade manually and grab our profits.
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