US bonds? You might as well burn it immediately. At least that will provide some light and warmth.

I´m almost 100% sure that all of those smallish investors that sold their Bitcoins on Stamp or China in the last weeks will withdraw their money and invest it in e.g. U.S.  bonds. Therefore the value of BTC will probably go near 0-1$

Did I mention, I think now is really a good time to BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY!!!! We've struck the Ocean floor... time to swim!!!

Maybe we have a reversal. Let's hope the volume supports this for a proper CCMF.

are the banks getting scared? last night my account got frozen when I tried to buy a bitcoin, just like they don't with every other transaction I make online.

Their excuses were very wish wash today and seemed to change during the conversation. Ending with "it would be good not to make another transaction for 24 hours" wtf is that

Can this market be even more pathetic?? It follows fake chinies exchanges like sheep

I found out it is much better to trade alts (in my case xmr) which aren't so manipulated by fake chinies exchanges!!

Farewell 400's.  May we never see you again.

Mmitech deletes a lot of his posts b/c he does NOT want to lock into any of his all over the place and ever changing theories

Reading topics on this subboard makes a really terrible impression to me. Can you see how maniac a lot members are? Can you see it? Not the smallest part of their brain has a place for any downward momentum. If you tell them it could go down only 5,00$ they will call you a stupid bear! If you tell them it could go even lower they are able to kill you! They are only shouting, cheering and being astonished when price does not do what it was supposed to do.

Of course, not all people here, but the majority.

We are playing this maniac now in a very small room, where a few nerds and venture capitalists are in. If bitcoin will proceed his journey, I could imagine that in a couple of years we play this game of maniac at least once globally.

Can you imagine where the price will go if this disease of blindness to one direction will infect the world? Or only a part of it? The game has just started, and of course it could end very quickly.

But if not...and the journey will proceed there will be a never seen spike, that will let see our current growth like a dwarf, quite likely followed by an equal gigantic decline.

Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation a bit. This Wall Observer Thread cracks me up.

In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by an older,(5x) proven and maturate trendline.

The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards now building up his own dynamic.

I think the bigger money(institutional buyer etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.

All the talk of manipulation conspiracies to me does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.

The posted scenario is my favorite probable. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market will go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

• All the geeks and early adopters are in. Who is still left-out is ignorant mass which can't comprehend Bitcoin incentives over Paypal, nor they can see it actually heals the worldwide economy. Yes, we're waiting for a big investors too, but I doubt they will enter such unregulated market which is public enemy nr. 1 of states and banking system. Finally, billionares are billionares just because of the corrupted fiat money system, and actually they kind of chopping off the branch they're sitting on.
• Price of Bitcoin: new Bitcoins are released every day and we need about 1.5mil$/day just to keep the price stagnant. It's really not the same like Bitcoin was 100$ before the previous bubble. Much more fiat is needed to fuel the rise. You can see it as 5x more people is needed to be aware of it all. I doubt there is 5x more people in cryptos now than there were in October 2013.
• Remember, previous Bitcoin bubble was fuelled mostly by Mt.Gox failure (someone artificially made USD credit on their site and was constantly buying) + "China is coming" effect. Those were 2 big (positive) circumstances, and it was pure luck for Bitcoin's price, so it wasn't too much about the real demand, it was about stealing and speculator's game.
• Too many altcoin parasites which are dispersing energy (and money). Actually I realised maybe even it would be better for worldwide economy that Bitcoin stayed closed source, forged in honest very small community of most advanced developers.
• Big holders may decide that they exit the game and effectively kill the price to the ground. Specially, I am affraid of 1 mil BTC owned by Satoshi. Would be good for Bitcoin if he is not among us anymore so the private keys are lost

Sadly, I realize Bitcoin is "liberalist wet dream", but can easiliy failed one. Combination of ignorant mass which is easily manipulated + interests of elite that is state and banksters, and I see it may really stay on the margin of worldwide economy, say it takes only about 10-20% of electronic payments and money transfers worldwide. That's not a win, that is huge fail compared to what we were thinking it may become.

So I played the Devil's advocate this time, and ask me what do I think about alts? Right now, they're fuckin' dead, including "silver to bitcoin's gold". Only chance for them is to rise along with Bitcoin. Astronomic rise of Darkcoin was not the healthy demand by the masses for spending it, it was speculator's game. After the initial boom and crash, we will see a slow decline, every fairly successful altcoin has the same history and future: One bubble and then the second one purely dependent on Bitcoin.

That was just my analysis and discussion is welcome. I just don't wanna hear I'm trolling or fudding, believe me I'm the one who was tirelessly promoting the whole story from the early days of 2012, and I made quite bucks out from it, but I'm starting to thing the "golden age" of cryptos is over.

Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.

As far as I can tell, he gets the big ones right in the ways that count, and sizes appropriately to optimize the expectation.  The small short-term ones, not so much.  I think my monkey does better in fact.  To be fair I don't think he generally cares about the small short-term ones.

Perhaps someone with more time than I have can go through kireinaha's posts and back-test them?

Many early adopters are no longer involved with Bitcoin, so I would say if they were able to survive the storms to get this point then they are successful.  

Sure, it could be a little luck thrown in too, but if you haven't read some of Risto's threads (such as his Sane and Simple Savings plan for one example) then you don't really get that he has excellent advice for making wise decisions when it comes to investing in BTC with very little risk to those of us that are somewhat risk averse.  

Granted, many on here love the thrill of the "gamble" and do very well day trading.  I learned early on that I was not good at it.  I am too emotional and it is really hard to time the trades well.  So I buy and hold and so far it has been a great strategy.

schooled by a girl, its not any girl its bitchick, but c'mon, this is pathetic, you guys are saying "don't listen to anyone, think for yourself and sell after a ~20% drop, because I know its going lower"

you guys really really suck at this.

The sad part is that guy is making serious money off of being horrible. Those youtube adds pay between $.03, and all the way up to $8 per play. He has 50,000,000 views on his channel. Even at .03 each add that's $1,500,000. He knows what he is doing. I guarantee he has no delusions as to how awful he is.

That's how I see it. Could go down even into the ~300. Of course, bearisher (and bullisher) scenarios are possible, but in my eyes lesser probable. I see it more as a rough orientation, not a prediction.

Edit: oh, I see your first chart is similar ;-)

rpietila's latest gem:

The public is being mind-fucked to BTC pregnancy and we're waiting on the next cohort to give birth so that we can "super-move" north of $10k.

Alrighty then.  We will see who has bragging rights.