This unfulfilled prediction was made at an early stage of the conflict, when my immersion in it was too superficial. I am still not too immersed in it because of the geographical distance, but after 15 months of tracking, I think I began to better understand what was happening. Therefore, now I am not making any forecasts on the timing, it turned out that there are many forces (both in Russia and in the West) that benefit from further prolongation of the conflict.

However, my general message has not changed for a second - Ukraine did not have and does not have the slightest chance of winning this confrontation. Too different weight categories for rivals. Even with NATO military assistance. Even taking into account the difference in levels of motivation, when one side is waging a domestic war against an aggressor-invader, and the other side is just conducting a military special operation. For Ukraine, the best thing was to conclude a peace treaty in April last year, when there was such an opportunity - now it would be able to do a lot of work on the road to recovery. This conflict is beneficial to many, but certainly not to Ukraine itself.

So, Mr. Analyst, what went wrong?  

What led you to be so confident in your prediction that you stated it as a matter of fact and considered all who didn't come to the same conclusion naive and foolish?  

Did you underestimate the capabilities of Ukraine?
Overestimate Russias?

Are you capable of saying either of these things out loud?  

For any semi-competant analysts out there who enjoy this stuff, the first site I've found with before/after images of several of the larger explosions lately is here:

  https://www.thedrive.com/author/tyler-rogoway

My own analysis appears to be flawed insofar as I estimated it more likely that such materials would be stored deep underground.  Anyway, it does give an indication of the kinds of cratering which might be underneath mushroom clouds of this magnitude.  I'd like to see more serious info about the 'nato bunker' event (if it actually happened at all.)

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The buzz I'm getting leads me to think it likely that there were indeed DU munitions.  Right now it's mostly scientiffically illiterate jerk-off channels talking about the radiation increases and stuff, but that's not atypical for such events which are sensitive.

Some Russian expert did an explanation of distribution of DU in-use vs. being blown up in an ammo dump.  It was accurate enough, but not very well understood on a physics basis or on a political/propaganda basis.

In a very general sense, the radioactive risk of DU is notably different than, say, the Fukushima event or nuclear attacks or what-have-you.  DU for munitions (or protective armor) is not necessarily highly refined to get other contaminants out.  Some of these do have a notable toxicity, and some of them have a radioactive decay chain profile of their own.

In a general sense, DU is an emitter of alpha particles.  In single atom sizes it would be a non-threat.  Alpha particles do great damage, but are quickly stopped by nearby material.  The trouble is that if they form a particle and lodge in tissue, the nearby tissue will be what stops the alpha particle always and over time the cells in the immediate area it can get a pretty significant dose (and their DNA impacted.)

I don't know without further research, but in principle is there is a lot of DU particles of noticeable size in, say, a field of wheat, it might not be advisable to be plowing those fields or working in a mill where the grain is processed.

It is claimed that somewhat elevated (albeit less than a magnitude of difference) levels of bismuth are being detected radiologically (via gamma decay) in the down-wind areas of the Klwhatever explosion and all the way into Poland.  This would about what I would expect if there were at least some DU munitions which were involved with a large explosion.

Well, I will take note that your accusations of lying to me are unfounded and you cannot support them with any good arguments. I willingly share links to the source when I report this or that news on the topic. As for Ukraine's inability to organize some kind of coherent spring counter-offensive, this is not news, the lack of success speaks for itself.

You did it again.

If one unfulfilled forecast put an end to the career of every analyst, there would not be a single analyst left in the world.

Could you also clarify what exactly of the information you quoted seems to be true so that I can better deal with my illusions and limiting stereotypes. Or at least reasonably refute the part that seems false to you. Without solid arguments, your statements seem unfounded to me.

If you listen carefully, they're asking Putin to stop been weakling and nuke UK, or
resign and let real patriot step in and do what they want

In fact of the matter. Ukraine planned to enter the Crimea in May, May is running out, and Ukraine is bogged down in positional battles near Bakhmut, and with each lost ammunition depot, its offensive potential is reduced. Even if Zelensky’s current trip around Europe can be considered successful (although in France he was caustically called the Circus Chapiteau), Europe is not able to supply as many weapons without damaging its arsenals as Russia destroys with missiles and drones. And the US is now in temporary difficulties due to the debt ceiling and reputational losses due to damage to the Patriot.

Even if the missile defense was effective (newsflash: it isn't) you still have the same problem of extreme cost differentials.  Or you will once the West runs out of (questionably effective) systems to send to Ukraine for free.

If I were advising, I would suggest that it's more efficient and effective to not stockpile billions of dollars worth of gear in one place even if doing otherwise is an extra hassle.  And if it is to be done, make sure it is protected against surface attack (like in a series of deep bunkers.  Maybe the caves systems around Bahkmud Artimoscow and Soladar.  Opps, scratch that idea.)

Be sure and watch the Saudi Patriot experience in the vid from my above link.  I really almost fell of my chair laughing.  The Patriot seems to work about as well as the Covid19 vaccine which, coincidentally or not, was developed and distributed by the same military/industrial complex.

Yeah, in the same way that a steel shovel is a 'game changer' to people who's other option is a pointed stick (e.g, a 9mm from a policeman's sidearm.)

...

I don't trust any numbers for interception or success rates from either side, but I do put a LOT more confidence in what the Russians say (which is not very much.)

...

Even if the Patriot is 100% effective, we are still talking about using a $3,000,000 munition to hit a $20,000 drone.....

So, seems that one Kinzhal that they shot down previously wasn't just lucky coincidence. Meanwhile Russia is bragging that thye destroyed Patriot sytem with Kinzhal. But as always, reality is a bit different. Yes, partially it's true, but they didn't hit key things of system - radar, control station or battery. It was just one of 8 launcher. Now it's only question of damage they made.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1658416550188130310?t=E21VcS4tLcw5fLNAsdvVPg&s=19
Seems that Patriot became main target for Russia in Ukraine and they desperately will try to destroy it as it's really game changer in the sky of Ukraine.

...

Ukraine losses are likely over 300,000 KIA with a positive 2nd derivative lately due to the feeble 'greatest counter-offensive'.  The killed ratio is probably around 10/1 in Russia's favor (which is what happens when you can lob shells and 1500 kg bombs on an enemy from safe-ish rear area zones AND the leaders of the losing side want 'their people' to disappear and stop being a drag on the country's technocratic future.

One of the reasons why the Ukroids lie about casualties to such a ridiculous degree is that the management can grift more money out of the U.S. as wages for dead people and pocket the money the families would get when their males get killed by keeping the deaths secret.  Even more profitable when the missing in action are also missing organs, teeth, and other body parts.  As I read, Ukraine did some significant 'liberalization' to the laws around organ donations just in time before kicking off the current conflict with Russia.  How convenient.  Fuckin ghouls.

The supply of the missiles to Ukraine was confirmed by the UK government - which holds an estimated 700-1,000 Storm Shadows - in May 2023.

Germany pledges almost $3bn in new military aid to Ukraine
New military aid includes 30 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 20 Marder armoured personnel carriers, and 200 reconnaissance drones.

So my "Russian friends" what will you do now that all 6 Kinzhal "unstoppable" hypersonic missiles were all shot down in the latest attack in Kyiv during last night?It looks like your paranoia is at the highest levels attacking civilians with hypersonic missiles committing war crimes in pure "sun light" as everybody can see the videos of such horrendous war crimes.Even France who was neutral now is clearly engaging in helping Ukraine and the fact that the Patriot air defense system shot down all Kinzhal missiles says a lot about how the war is going for the Russian side.

Russia ought to pursue supremacy in the former Soviet sphere of influence and should pursue Eurasian integration; Fourthly, Russia ought to oppose NATO expansion; Fifthly, Russia should pursue a partnership with China.[2]

The missile weighs about 1,300 kilograms (2,900 lb), with a conventional warhead of 450 kilograms (990 lb). It has a maximum body diameter of 48 centimetres (19 in) and a wingspan of three metres (120 in). It is propelled at Mach 0.8 by a Microturbo TRI 60-30 turbojet engine and has range of approximately 560 km (300 nmi; 350 mi).[8]

The weapon can be launched from a number of different aircraft—the Saab Gripen, Dassault Mirage 2000, Dassault Rafale and the Panavia Tornado, both the Italian Tornado IDS and formerly the British Tornado GR4 (now retired).[14] Storm Shadow was integrated with the Eurofighter Typhoon as part of the Phase 2 Enhancement (P2E) in 2015,[15][16] but will not be fitted to the F-35 Lightning II.[17]

The Storm Shadow's BROACH warhead features an initial penetrating charge to clear soil or enter a bunker, then a variable delay fuze to control detonation of the main warhead. Intended targets are command, control and communications centres; airfields; ports and power stations; ammunition management and storage facilities; surface ships and submarines in port; bridges and other high value strategic targets.[14]

The missile is fire and forget, programmed before launch. Once launched, it cannot be controlled or commanded to self-destroy and its target information cannot be changed. Mission planners program the weapon with details of the target and its air-defences. The missile follows a path semi-autonomously, on a low flight path guided by GPS and terrain mapping to the target area.[18] Close to the target, the missile climbs and then dives into the target.[19]

Something is happening in Bryansk oblast - Russian aircrafts started to fall there. 4 aircrafts just in one day had their last flight - Su-34, Su-35 and two Mi-8 helicopters. Seems that they were hit by Patriot system.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/05/13/Helicopter-crashes-in-Russia-s-Bryansk-near-border-with-Ukraine
Meanwhile Ukraine continue their progress around Bahmut in North and South directions.

You're so delusional. In all years from Soviet times Russia needed to show their power with all these parades. And now on second year of war in Ukraine they decided not to make huge parade and let their performance to talk. Strange. BTW, what performance? What significant they have achieved so far. And for some reason rest of world don't need to held such parades to show their power.

Their actions already can't surprise me... Videos of very powerful explosions is spreading on Telegram, but from what I understood it's fake, but terrorist state really hit something in Ternopil.

Join the club.  Got three of you desperate bottom-feeding idjuts on the deck in just four posts.  Not a bad trawl if I do say so myself!


I only saw a little snippets of this year's Russian victory day parade (which is more than most years) mainly because you guys are calling attention to it.  I was impressed.  Seems staid and tasteful.

Russia seems to be letting their performance do the talking unlike most of the rest of the world who seem totally focused on 'selfie' style chestbeating past the level of absurdity.  Trying to puff yourself up in the eyes of others is a sure sign of fatal insecurity.  It's the world live in, I guess, and Ukraine is a poster-child for making their whole existence up out of ridiculous Hollywood-style fakery and fiction.

Looks like the legit Western politicians and their constituents have been gyped and played for fools.  Ukraine's leadership took a lot of money and weapons over the year promising a 'greatest counteroffensive' and it seems that they mostly just stole the money and have little or no intention of doing much fighting.  Well played!  The oligarchs like Kolomoiski didn't get rich because they are stupid and they didn't fund the nazis because they love the ideology.

I predict that Ukraine will do a couple of feeble pokes here and there, and will 'gain some ground', but mostly because the Russians love to fight under conditions where they can get 10/1 kill ratios.  It's very effective 'de-militarization' of Ukraine which was one of the primary stated goals of SMO.  Any territory 'lost' by the Russians will be re-occupied almost for free a bit later on in the game assuming the Russians are even interested in it.