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1401  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: gambling techniques on: November 18, 2022, 10:27:09 PM
I am not sure if I can call it a "gambling technique", but when I roll dices I usually go for high percentage of chance and low profit, of course.
Perhaps, it is just me, but like to extent the game as much as possible and hopefully accumulate a bit through a good streak. Unfortunately, this has not worked well for me, since the numbers play against me and I end up losing more than I accumulate during those low risk rolls just in a couple bad rolls.
The same in my experience.
I did this before because there was a prize for the top wager in dice and it is an amount that would absolutely make you try to bet over and over again.
So every competitor's technique was to bet more with low amounts. I tried doing the auto mode for 24 hours with just satoshis at stake but to my surprise the next I lose quite a lot of my capital, like 20% so I just tried to be inside the top 10 rankings with a prize and never did it again the second round.
Obviously, that's not how they do it, there must be another technique where the loss is smaller.

It is very common to gamify everything, particularly if the platform itself is a gaming one! So be aware that all those tricks will be systematically used by the site owners and the programmers with the help of some strong marketing if they can afford it. Sites that have  long history may have perfected the techniques more than sites that are still exploring the behaviour of their clients.
1402  Economy / Gambling / Re: Slot Games' RTP, variable?? on: November 18, 2022, 10:24:25 PM
[Can it mean that when people are saying that if a big Jackpot won on a slot, you shouldn't expect another big win on this slot any time soon?

No. This shouldn't be the case with any truly random slot game. Any past event doesn't have influence on future event.

In other words, if your chance for a jackpot is 1:1000000. On every spin it is still 1:1000000, no matter if jackpot has been won seconds or months ago by other player.

Here is the trick... RTP doesn't mean it's provably fair, and each time the game hits a jackpot, then the game has to normalize the RTP, and that means users will have a losing streak until the RTP gets down to 94% or the percent the game has. But here the trick is the multiple for the same game... that means if one hits the jackpot. other 300 users will lose until the game recovers the money. And that's why we can't verify each roll in the slots machines, because they manipulate the game until recover, and that's a secure way to always win for the casino.

For provably fair games they can win the jackpot back to back with the right luck, and with that kind of games the house not always win, sometimes users with good look will take more profit than the house.

You are right, I am not sure if the average player is that concerned with all those concepts such as probably fair or other. It think that it is much more about ensuring afully comprehensive experience including some of the best individuals serving as a client customer help and dialoguing with the users when that is needed. All the technicals are far less important.
1403  Economy / Gambling / Re: If you were building a Sportsbook... on: November 18, 2022, 10:22:03 PM
Well, there are quite a few APIs out there and that is a bit of your own personal tastes and the skills of the team or individual that is going to produce the site and even a question of good marketing integration for search engines. My first instinct when developing a full new model is to go for a very lean development that can deliver a basic product to the marketing at minimal costs.
1404  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 18, 2022, 12:59:25 PM
Yet, all that Ukraine had to do was adhering to Minsk 2 and all this would be avoided

Again, a treaty imposed under threat -  a whole country subject to the Moscow government and waiting for the next invasion of their sovereign territory. Your argument is "all you have to accept is that we will tell you what you can or cannot do, else we will destroy your country" which is not really acceptable, or from Ukraine perspective, it is perfectly acceptable to say, "we will do with our country what is best for our future and our people, not for yours".

In fact that is the essence of having an independent country - choosing your destiny within a range of options and the limitations. There are many cases in history of Metropolis - Colony relationships and it is clear that colonies usually get the shorted end of the stick.

Bottom line, it is legitimate for a free country to choose the relations they wish to establish. In my view, all Moscow had to do was nothing. That would have prevented the war.
1405  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 17, 2022, 09:48:26 PM
he also believed his own propaganda like you do, and said Ukraine will win in May 2022, because USA and UK are backing Ukraine  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

It did win. I consider pushing one of the biggest armies in the world back to where they came from a win. The war hasn't ended, but according to the Russians there was no war in the first place, so there's nothing to end, or is there?

It always makes me laugh when I remind myself that Russian TV channels were all screaming that there's no war just a little military operation that's going to end soon and months later they say Russia wants to negotiate with Ukraine but Ukraine refuses. Negotiate what? Take the remains of your special operation and GTFO to your side of the border!

Also, yes sure, Poland wants to share a border with the RF. What could go wrong?

As far as I know it does share a border with RF.


Please read carefully. It says (ironically) that surely they want to share it (I should have said "enhance it"?) - which is what would happen if the RF annexes Ukraine. That would be a nightmare scenario for Poland, NATO the EU and possibly the US. Not that Ukraine having a border with the RF is something to be liked, particularly if it joins the European Union.

Joseph Borrel, maximun EU diplomat, has recently said that the EU can no longer be a "herbivore" when all the rest are "carnivores". Maintaining an army is costly and also carries political risks of various types if it is  a large army. Western Europe is tired of wars and has reached (at least for now) the conclusion that it is much better to simply not go to war among them. Such costs are even larger if there is a substantially large border with the RF (and its aggressive junta) near the heart of the economically most significant regions of Europe -is going back to cold war.

I am not sure the level of knowledge here, but the wars in Europe have been devastating. A million wars waged in the middle ages, the Napoleonic wars, WW I, WW II, even more recently the Balcan wars... these have achieved nothing but death and economic loses and decline respect to US, China and the rest of the world. It would seen that Putin has read the wrong history books during COVID, as he seems to have forgotten the basic principles: Everytime that an European country has grown too strong, all the rest have allied to stop it. Th RF, in this context, is no different (except that is not even particularly strong, just manically aggressive under the current regime).
1406  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 17, 2022, 03:02:10 PM

Nope, he did get something wrong. The price of having RF near Europe is unacceptable. If the RF destroys Ukraine, it will be rebuilt better.



The Ukrainian army has shown bravery, commitment and cohesion beyond what many would have thought possible. I cannot think of a better ally nor any other army that can answer more properly "I am the storm" to the devil's ear.

Note to those who have the mental capacity to understand:  'unreliable' != 'always wrong'.  Sorry if that causes you a discomfort by way of cognitive dissonance.
-cut-
I find it funny that some people apparently identify as a russian troll so deeply that they seem to get offended when i only criticize russian trolls.

And while doing this they try to took apart meme that i made just to try to point out that i didn't understand the point.

And if someone doesn't (have the mental capacity to) understand: Those aren't real quotes either. I made them up and could have written literally any made up quote and it seems that they would defend it as a wise thing to say that i just don't get.
 
I know this must be hard to process for someone who only blindly trust to that group of people who don't trust anyone either.

... while arguing that the dude actually is a "superior mind that has understanding beyond anything you can fathom"...

As a side note this has been an interesting and funny to watch when it comes to conspirary theorists and russian trolls squirming. How they could use links from mainstream media as an actual solid proof but because mainstream media now sided with russia on this the won't fit their "Liberal media always lies" agenda, they must be losing their minds and think this is some sort of double bluff instead of media reporting the truth.
https://i.imgur.com/zRaelhJ.png
That very good point. Russians is very selective. When Western media says something against Russia, it's lies, fakes and etc. But when news fits their agenda, even partially, they quote it as reliable source, often taking things out of context.

The Putin Fan boys that think Poland is going to invade Ukraine are really going to eat this up.
I saw some Russian vatniks saying that NATO now should activate 5th article against Ukraine because they attacked NATO country.
About Poland invading Ukraine, it fits their agenda that they use since beginning of war that Poland and Hungary have intentions to share Weatern part of Ukraine.

Of course, Poland is being the main corridor for supplies, weapons, training and has donated weapons of their own ex Soviet arsenal because they plan to invade Ukraine. Sounds like a tactic that could be copied and would fit perfectly in the current RF masterplan: Arm Ukraine before invading it. Shoigu are you there reading? Use this tactic pleeease.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/06/15/poland-has-given-ukraine-military-aid-worth-at-least-1-7bn-expects-allies-to-help-fill-the-gaps/

Quote
Poland has provided arms and other military equipment to Ukraine worth at least $1.7 billion, says President Andrzej Duda, who repeated his call for the country’s allies to help it make up the shortfall.

Also, yes sure, Poland wants to share a border with the RF. What could go wrong?

But that is something you and I do not get, because we are not in the path of the light like o48o and friends.

 Articles 4 and 5 are not automatic. These enlightened creatures think that NATO is like a robot, you press the button and it jumps.

1407  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 16, 2022, 09:26:53 AM
Firstly the US and allies must make up their minds about what happened - my first instinct is that the target obviously does not make any sense and I am not sure there is anything in there that could be a target. A missile flying through half Ukraine must have been at some point detected?

Looking at the picture, it seems a vey small effect for a full missile detonating. You can see a small crater, even smaller than one from an arty shell, and a tractor that is not that badly damaged. Could have been a fragment or even WWII unexploded munitions?

According to Poland's MFA the fragments belong to a "Russian made" missile, which could mean anything from an X-101 cruise missile to a C-300 from a Ukrainian SAM. At least we know it's not Iranian, nor Chinese Smiley.

As for target, rumor has it that there is a power plant near the border on the Ukrainian side so it's possible that some ancient cruise missile was aimed at it and missed it by a few km (inertial guidance is a bitch). Otherwise it would be an incredibly unbelievable coincidence that something unrelated exploded at poor farmers at the same time when Russians were launching ~100 missiles at the Ukrainian power grid.

This are the statistics for unexploded ordinance, just for the UK:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/471707/20150320-FOI-02246-Unexploded_Ordnance-Stats.pdf

Around 50 cases a year and this is not in Cambodia nor Laos nor a country in central Africa. It does happen and it particularly happens when working on agricultural tasks (second to construction of course). Poland was pretty much fought all over and the Russian army was there, so there is a case to consider. Mainstream media are speaking of missiles. Again the fragment in the picture is quite crude,  too large for a MANPAD I would say.

Russian made... yep, does not add anything. A fragment from an intercept, quite credible. A "precision" missile, yep also a valid hypothesis.
1408  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 16, 2022, 01:24:07 AM
Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Fuck... I hope these two Polish farmers were just smoking in the wrong place, otherwise it was nice knowing you all.

Not yet. An attack or an offensive action is usually met with a proportional response, so no time for Armageddon just yet. What could be a proportional response? The danger is escalation, but we are still a few meters apart from it.

Firstly the US and allies must make up their minds about what happened - my first instinct is that the target obviously does not make any sense and I am not sure there is anything in there that could be a target. A missile flying through half Ukraine must have been at some point detected?

Looking at the picture, it seems a vey small effect for a full missile detonating. You can see a small crater, even smaller than one from an arty shell, and a tractor that is not that badly damaged. Could have been a fragment or even WWII unexploded ordinance?
1409  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 15, 2022, 12:38:49 PM
New-ish excuse why putinists are losing the war:

After the Mariupol operation, we considered that we suffered most of the losses from friendly fire. Someone even called the figure - sixty percent. This is a common occurrence, but its spread depends, of course, on the competence of commanders - especially artillerymen.

We are completing the task, when suddenly mines began to fall on our heads from the rear. Who? Where? Raise the copter, find a mortar battery, rush there...
- Who are you!?
- The battalion of such and such a regiment from Russia.
- Why are you hitting us?
- We are not aiming at you - at a point on the map. We've been assigned a task, and we're doing it.
- So no one corrects you, you shoot at the map the old fashioned way ...
- Well, so...

Then we didn’t leave them - we corrected them ourselves, downloaded programs to their smartphones, taught them how to use them ... And there were so many of them ... We move around the industrial zone, occupy buildings, hold them at night - in the morning we rotate in other groups so that the guys can relax. We start to rotate - and there are mines on the route ... Where from? Some army general gave a command to his engineers to mine the front, which had gone ahead in a day, but the general did not even bother to ask. As a result, several people died, including the tank crew with the tank company commander, who was on foot to receive the task.

We thought that they had already learned not to do at least such stupid things as tonight the rotation, which was returning to the base with the headlights turned off, flew into the ditch, which was dug behind them across the road by army subcontractors. There a commander of the engineering service ruined all the access roads along the route, because of his "art" we have overturned Urals ... In general, with such geniuses, we don’t even need enemies. Dear army chiefs, control the situation - it's time to grow.

I'm sure the "chiefs" will read this and fix the issues immediately. Poor guys just didn't know that their glorious forces are killing each other.

I guess their argument would be that they are actually winning it twice against Ukraine against themselves. I really hope that the soldier who allegedly wrote that is never found - even a honest complaint could be interpreted as treason. The more nervous they grow, the more are they going to repress every sign of dissent.

I am really surprised that any army has such a level of incompetence. We are not talking weapons or other things that are expensive, we are talking procedures and techniques which only require a little care.
1410  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 14, 2022, 06:43:57 PM

Apart from that, you are using the oldest propaganda tactic in history - you classify a person or a group as something undesirable, so that anything you do after that becomes justified (e.g. despicable Arab terrorist, Capitalist American, Wicked Hilary, traitor Spansky ...). It is only for simple minds like yours, most people in the internet era can pick this easily.



...Adolf Putin...

Good argument, but is not a classification and I do not justify anything done to him (other than replacing him for someone who does not want to wage wars), I just got tired of they guy actually saying that others are the "Nazis", when is following the Reich manual better than Goering:

- Going into offensive on a "pan-Eslavic" motto (For Hitler it was the Anchslush, the pan-Germanism and, look at the coincidence, the "German speaking majority in Sudetenland and Austria".
- A very clear Russian supremacist policy. All regions are there to be used by the dominant ethnic Russians.
- Pretence of law, as long as "the Chiefs" decide it is not conveniet.
- Incarcerate political opposition (Nazis with the Communists in Germany, Putin with any opposition such as Navalny, but not only Navalny).
- And, not exclusively Nazi, but very Prussian: Put the citizens and the state to the service of the army instead of the opposite (nowcompulsory service on an offensive war).
- Using terror tactics against civilians (Nazis in Poland for example, the orcs in Bucha, Irpin, ... )
- Bombing cities trying to make the enemy surrender (Battle of Britain and yes, the US in Japan, etc...).
- Using the propaganda machine to keep the population ignorant (to the point of not calling this a war and sentencing those who dare!).

So, yes, Adolf Putin is not name calling nor a class, is a description ... or perhaps is that all tyrants end up looking the same.

Nobody wins in war except the makers of the war machines. If they are smart, they will be selling war materials to all the warring factions, so they will have a safe haven to go to no matter who wins.


You are a genius.
1411  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 14, 2022, 01:15:17 AM

This is for history, to once again indicate that you are a Spanish Nazi. And should be treated accordingly to your posts on the basis of this.


Are you aware that I use Adolf Putin in a negative way right? I mean, not sometimes, but more like in 3 of every 4 posts, it is impossible not to notice. I even wrote a few posts with my reasons to believe why Putin is actually acting like the Reich Nazis.

Apart from that, you are using the oldest propaganda tactic in history - you classify a person or a group as something undesirable, so that anything you do after that becomes justified (e.g. despicable Arab terrorist, Capitalist American, Wicked Hilary, traitor Spansky ...). It is only for simple minds like yours, most people in the internet era can pick this easily.



I wonder how many people in the RF really believe the crap or they are just trying hard to believe it so that they do not feel part of the scum of the Earth.

Ah, you looked hard to find that one uh? And worked hard on interpreting that as xenophobia as well by cutting the text:

Quote
" This was is no different from many others that have been led by the Russian supremacists. Confronting one ethnicity with others, using propaganda massively while ignoring any limit to what is human and what is "reasonable" in war.
Smoke-screening with stupid arguments about "west" versus "east" (as if killing was a culture), accusing others of nazism while behaving as such, denying everything (Even denying there is war!!) ...

Up to the point of complaining that the RF artists are no longer invited to play abroad while they kill the old and the young alike. I wonder how many people in the RF really believe the crap or they are just trying hard to believe it so that they do not feel part of the scum of the Earth."

My comment is very clear: many RF citizens (not only Russians) are trying to survive psychologically and trying not be part of Adolf Putin's clusterfuck and trying very hard not to feel like shit for being in the RF under this government of psychos. You are too, in your own stupid way calling names like a confused teenager and pretending that everything is going well and somehow there is a reason why 80.000 RF young men are dead and many more will be unless the madness stops. So you are very familiar with what I am saying, oh yes you are.

...
Now to the topic. I don't understand the optimism of those people in this thread who support Ukraine, which behave like fans at a match, supporting their favourite team. ...

The topic is that you were brawling about Ukraine not being able to retake any substantial territory or city. You were wrong - do not worry, everyone gets things wrong sometimes and you are probably going to get many more so learn to live with it and do not hate yourself for it.

Of course you don't know why the "optimism". You do not know your enemy and you probably will never be able to - too long being a servant of the Psychos.

You think that Europe particularly supports Ukraine without any reason? You have not grasped even the basic concepts of the Ukrainian resistance and the international support. I am going to give you just one very practical and simple reason, there are many ethical and philosophical ones  - at the risk of trying to plant a seed in a rock:

 - Europe does not want to have a victorious RF army at the gates of Poland. The cost of that is much higher than supporting Ukraine's effort.

And on regards to Ukraine, obviously most Ukrainians would rather avoid being under the rule of Moscow. I am not sure you get it, so trust me on this one.

I am sure that even someone with a 5 year old brain like your, that throws Nazi here and Nazi there can understand that. The RF army is a threat and should have been stopped much earlier.

Reasons for optimism... well, it does not seem to be going that bad, you know...

...
A look back at when Russia lost the battle of Kiev and you framed it as a victory because they were able to focus on the "permanent taking of places like Kherson. which they do intend to keep" (and also the whole war is fake and pre planned):
...

By 'Kherson' I meant primarily the region on the East of the river which is vitally important to the reliable supply of water to Crimea.
...

I maintain that Russia (or any other thinking power in this day and age) will avoid at all costs attempting to take over and try to control an area which lacks popular support.  Russia seems to be to civilized to flat out genocide an area to arrange popular support.

...

Well, RF seems not keeping even that.

No, the RF has done that before - flattening whole cities like Aleppo, just to mention one.

1412  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 12, 2022, 10:18:40 PM
I am waiting to see if Ukraine consolidates or intends to actually cross the Dnipro. It would be an extreme strategic risk to do so, but I am not sure if this is a full collapse or just a disorderly retreat.

There is a say in Spanish, "a enemigo que huye, puente de plata" - "give a silver lined bridge to a running enemy". My take is that Ukraine has renounced to damage Kherson even further while also renouncing to capture a few thousand RF soldiers. Would that have been possible? Would that have been a decisive hit to the RF army?

I doubt Ukrainians need to cross Dnipro there near Kherson, way too complicated now with bridges being essentially destroyed. They will probably want to HIMARS the juicy stuff on the left bank (like bridges/ammo depots/etc) as far as they can reach to reduce the risk for shelling on Kherson, but then they can move some troops to other areas, like Luhansk, and encourage Russians to make another good will gesture.


I am sure Russian commanders will find another Chornobaivka close to the front lines and use it over and over.

Nepotism and corruption in the Russian army is what helped Ukrainians win this war.

The Russian command structure is non-existent. Bunch of alcoholics who only know how to send untrained soldiers to their deaths AND level
everything in front of them (including Russian soldiers and equipment). The pullback from Kherson was a smart move as they had the best
of the best soldiers there and were losing them daily. I have to give them that. They should have done it right after the Kharkiv offensive.
The old man probably refused and it took more than a month of convincing him to reach this decision.

All other front lines will collapse sooner or later. It is just a meat grinder at this point.

Logistics win wars. The Crimean bridge will be taken out, then the land bridge's front line will collapse.

As losses will mount, pressure to replace Putin will grow, and he will be forced to withdraw the remaining forces and declare a victory.

That is how this will end, with Putin or without him. The end will be the same. Ukraine will get all its lands as of 1991.


Oh certainly, the worst enemy of the RF army is the culture and leadership of the RF army. The tactics that work for countries that have less support and less resources, like basically flattening any city to the ground and mass-graving population into submission, have failed against the determination and quite decent organisation of the Ukrainian army. I hope you are right, the strategy that has worked in the southwest may be used in other areas. The area near the Dnipro was particularly suited to a logistics cut-off, it may be more difficult to implement in other areas.

However other strategies may be possible and equally effective. The RF army has a couple strengths, but a million weaknesses.

With time, it is possible that better analysis of the battles and tactical situations becomes available. I am personally very interested in understanding tactics and strategy and wars (useless and detestable as they are) are possibly the ultimate expression of these. The war in Ukraine will be much more documented that any other war before.

The doings of the RF chief psychos will probably be in the same bag as the allied frontal assaults in WW I, Gallipoli, the US presence in Afghanistan and the Romanov's  army in WWI, Stalingrad for the Nazi army and countless historical strategic mistakes from Craso in Parthia to Napoleon coming back from his exile.

1413  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 12, 2022, 12:27:43 AM
...
BTW, something is happening in Nova Kakhovka now, which is located in other side of Dnipro:
https://t.me/hueviyherson/28813
https://t.me/hueviyherson/28898
Seems that this city is also planning to leave Russian Federation.
...

At the moment, all the east bank of the Dnipro seems to be falling progressively under Ukrainian control. There are rumours of RF soldiers being instructed of dressing as civils and get out however they can.

https://deepstatemap.live/en#8/47.021/33.937 This map usually gets it right.

I am waiting to see if Ukraine consolidates or intends to actually cross the Dnipro. It would be an extreme strategic risk to do so, but I am not sure if this is a full collapse or just a disorderly retreat.

There is a say in Spanish, "a enemigo que huye, puente de plata" - "give a silver lined bridge to a running enemy". My take is that Ukraine has renounced to damage Kherson even further while also renouncing to capture a few thousand RF soldiers. Would that have been possible? Would that have been a decisive hit to the RF army?

1414  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: November 11, 2022, 11:35:08 PM


Are you defending Russia or what?  What is your point?  Could you attempt to articulate a point please?

My point is: "Stop been hypocrite"

Maybe you should stop assuming that anyone who thinks it's fucked up what Russia is doing today supports every decision the US or UK or any other country has made over the past 60 years.  For example, I think the US is doing the right thing by supporting Ukraine.  That doesn't mean I think they did the right thing when they invaded Iraq 20 years ago.  I think the US as wrong to invade Iraq, but right to help Ukraine when they were invaded by Russia.  

Russia is invading Ukraine today.  That's what this thread is about.  Well, I guess technically they're retreating from Ukraine today.  But you know what I mean.




I'm member on few USA forums for around 20 years...I noticed that current war is ALWAYS the just one for Americans...then after its over, they
start accusing Bush, Cheney, military industrial complex, CIA...verbally accusing, that is, noone ever get to court because of a posteriori American
wisdom

And now you're in the same position as the Americans 20 years ago...supporting their country while it invades and kills innocent people.... is that your point?


@Branko, you may be right in many of your appreciations on the US foreign policy and their general attitude to the world.The US craps periodically on whatever country is not doing their will, particularly when the Republican Party (which is linked to the oil cartels like a toe to a nail) is in power and has to return the financing favours.

None of that makes Putin's RF good for anything, none of that makes a government from Moscow good for Ukraine. Sometimes you have to choose between two not really good options. Given the track record of Putin and the RF government, and the general track record of using Ukraine to Chernobylize, Holodomor it, burn it to the ground to stop the enemy and using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder, I am sure you are not surprised that they are willing to put a fight to try something else.

I believe Ukraine has a future in Europe if they can progress towards a stronger rule of law and governance, and it is a much better one that anything that Putin can offer - not that he is offering anything.

Once the US (Zelensky) is pushed out of Ukraine (or assassinated), there will be peace.
...

This comes from the guy who wrote "once Trump wins the next election..." (congrats on the mid-terms  Grin). But again, just to humour your argument, in the hypothetical case that Zelensky is killed, nothing changes. Ukraine is not holding because of Zelensky, it is holding because there are many people willing to fight for their independence. As simple as that.

Now, if Ukraine loses the war, whatever that may mean for you, peace does not come. Ukraine is likely to keep an active resistance and Putin is certainly not stopping his invasion of Europe.

Peace only comes upon a notorious and clear defeat of the RF army beyond any excuse or possibility of make-up. The equilibrium that US and Europe are doing at the moment is making the RF army retreat, while not completely destroying it and not creating a situation in which Adolf Putin is removed from the genetic pool of the world, as that would create immense risks.

In all honesty, I am not sure if the US at this point has made a deal with Putin, Tordesillas Treaty style *left for me, right for you". I am going to keep believing that they want Ukraine to have a strong grip in Crimea and would consider great to have the influence of the RF fleet diminished as a minimum.

I am sceptic, but time will tell.
1415  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Slave soldiers? on: November 10, 2022, 10:42:49 PM
There is something here that does not match. If it is that easy as simply saying "I refuse this suspiciously camouflaged-tinted envelope which reads "Ministry of Defence - Recruiting section" why are people flying right after the draft is announced? What would you say about the news about people fleeing to avoid the draft? They do not have the 50?

There may be people who may simply not know that they can just not go to the office?

Draft != mobilization.

What they had from September till now was "partial mobilization". One can evade it by not taking the subpoena. May not be easy in some circumstances (for example subpoenas can be handed out at work, or at police checkpoints) but my understanding is that most people simply don't resist even if it's as trivial as refusing to open the door or sign a piece of paper.

I don't know why they were fleeing, perhaps thinking that things will get worse, borders will be closed, "partial" becomes "total" and/or more difficult to evade. For example a law is now being proposed to make evading mobilization a crime similar to evading the draft (see below).

Annual draft of 18-year-olds starts now, evading that has much more serious consequences, including jail time. Although as I mentioned above technically draftees are not supposed to be sent to war but this being Russia they likely will be.

I just saw the last "public discussion" of the Chief Psychos speaking about how are they retreating from Kherson (to be confirmed) because they "want to save the lives of the RF soldiers". My conclusions about it:

- The soldiers would have been all right, they would have simply surrendered en-masse and probably marry some Ukrainian widows and live happily ever after free from Adolf Putin.
- The fact that they abandon the city means that the scarcity of cannon fodder is much more acute.
- They are trying to convince future recruits that they will be cared for.

All this points to very little depth in the front lines. The classic structures of reserves at 5, 15 and 30 kilometres are not being implemented, breaking RF's own tactical manuals and that is an indication of extreme weakness and lack of resources. They are very close to their "safe territory" and the supply bases.

I am really surprised if at this point anyone with an internet connection would join.
1416  Economy / Gambling / Re: Black Friday fever: do you wait for extra bonuses from casinos? on: November 10, 2022, 09:42:27 PM
Which players do not want to get extra bonuses from casinos? As long as the extra bonus is something reasonable without crazy requirement, for sure players will be happy to take the extra bonus. To be more specific for Black Friday, I think it is rare to find bonuses from casino in this event. You have your own casino, how if you offer bonus to your active players as well as to new players? Dont you think it will be an effective way of marketing?

The black Fridays started being just for general shopping and then it came the cybermonday for electronics and the like. I wonder if the casinos could get all in an agreement and start promoting... I do not know, the PlayTuesday  Grin Jokes apart, promotion should be taken very seriously, since the budget for gambling also competes with the rest of the expenses in leisure and entertainment.
1417  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Casino games plebs like us must play on: November 10, 2022, 09:35:58 PM
I don't really care if there's still house edge even if it's very low because gambling sites are business which means itbis always in thei favor to earn profit from their gamblers. So what I was trying to explain is that we are the so called employees on their casinos to help the owner for earning a good profit for a chance to get high pay which I think you know it's about winning in bet like the ones you have known that won huge amount in casino. After all, gambling sites are business and it's all in the casinos favor no matter how you flip the truth upside down.

Employees are just employees and in casinos and game platforms they are under intensive scrutiny. Just imagine that you had a CCTV pointing at you when you work, clients that are trying to scam from time to time, a clear set of instructions to play, very clear directives and, being honest, strong penalties if you do not follow the orders. It is more like being in an army if you think of it.
1418  Economy / Gambling / Re: The History of Poker on: November 10, 2022, 09:33:17 PM
And we have heard the term 'bluff' from poker itself.
sometimes when we have a large amount of money or chips we are able to make a bluff to make people not follow our game, but that does not apply to those who have little money or chips can only hope for luck at the table when their cards come out, usually like this the cards can be easier to read if we play long at that table

To be honest, the "bluff" is very spectacular when it happens and it always comes up in movies and stories that are told among friends. It is that extra that comes with being able to confuse the opponent, however it is very difficult to play with experienced opponents and the professional players will tell you that is so risky when bets are high that it is very rarely used.
1419  Economy / Services / Re: POKER COURSES FOR SALE on: November 10, 2022, 09:30:01 PM
I'm sure it will help not just one, but many people in the future. It's only a matter of time when people realize how much useful info can be found on this forum. Yes, of course, not all the info here is valuable, there's a lot of spamming here, yes, but in any great library there are many sh*tty books too, right? You just have to find the right ones, ignoring all the garbage.

I totally agree with you, sometimes I have always looked for strategies for dice, for poker, roulette, and the one that exists is very opaque, I have even looked for physical books in several places to see if there is something that can help me find a good way to improve strategies, but it is very difficult, it turns out that for gambling the information is very limited, the best thing is to get through forums and more specific information that can give better ideas, I always check this thread, the subject does not seem bad to me, the bad thing is that OP has not answered the questions, but it has served to reassure many so that they do not fall for scams or the like.

This is very true. Although it may look like there are many articles on gambling, including poker, there are many physical books even, in fact, there is almost no reliable and at the same time useful information about how to play this game with success at the present time. We should rather seek the info on forums, and this forum in particular is a good place for that.

I think that to learn poker you may start with a course or a book but later down the line you will need to have a good player at least telling you how to start learning the strategies and how a proper training is planned. Dedicated poker players spend as much time playing as chess Masters playing studying and using the computer to check alternatives and determine courses of action.
1420  Economy / Economics / Re: I smell Fed pivot on: November 10, 2022, 09:14:50 PM
Nah, it looks quite the opposite. The labour market in the US is so strong that is nearly impossible to control inflation, but also there is still a problem with supply and is going to stay in there if China keeps the Zero COVID policies and shutting down cities and business.

So no short term Fed pivot and the BoE and ECB are not going to fall behind, since they want to keep at least parity and have even bigger inflation problems.
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