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1141  Other / Meta / Re: Local China Subforums - Admin Probably Will Be Arrested And Transfered To China on: October 18, 2023, 02:17:25 PM
OP, do you challenge yourself to write most absurd thread on Meta board? This thread is absurd even compared with your other threads.

I would say that he is doing very well, but if he continues like this, I believe that there is still room for him to surpass himself. The only question is whether the OP is a troll, or if he really has serious problems with understanding the world around him.

Other country would just laugh at request of arrest & transfer admin of Bitcointalk.

Especially because of the "crime" the OP is talking about - because in that case China should seek the extradition of millions of people who criticize them or even enable their residents to bypass the Chinese firewall when it comes to the internet.



In the next episode : @Joeyp vs. Tor Smiley
1142  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I was ripped off on: October 17, 2023, 03:38:30 PM
I sent a guy a down payment on a car. I use a program called Electrum. After I sent him the money I figured out I was being scammed. Do I have any recourse? Any way to recover my money?
I do have the guys wallet ID and the transaction ID.
Thankfully is was only 55.58663 mBTC


Maybe you learned something from all this, and maybe you got a very cheap life lesson, considering that the amount doesn't seem to be a problem for you. So in the future, if something is not clear to you, first come to the forum and ask - and if you had done that, you wouldn't be talking about this now.

Furthermore, I hope you learned not to buy something you haven't seen, and that from complete strangers who also ask you to pay with Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is a great thing, but only for those who know how it works - and that scammer of yours is obviously very well acquainted with what you still haven't learned.
1143  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Ledger's laying off employees. Thoughts? on: October 17, 2023, 03:07:28 PM
This is the future of everything, because 99% of the population are morons who just accept this.

Unfortunately, this is true and the world is turning into a place where any different (critical) thinking is taken as something negative. Even that famous CEO Pascal says that everyone who speaks negatively about the Recover service is actually doing nothing but spreading FUD.

They will have ran some numbers and decided they will make more money from this subscription service than they will lose from people no longer buying their devices. It doesn't take much. Even if someone only buys Ledger products, then they will maybe spend $100-200 with Ledger every 5 years? With Ledger Recover they would spend $600 in the same 5 years. Gaining one Ledger Recover customer makes up for losing several normal customers.

Or maybe they've already made so much money that they don't care how the whole thing ends - and if the company fails in the future, they'll blame the people who didn't understand their genius. Your calculation definitely makes sense, and considering that the average user will most likely pay $9.99 a month to feel safe, Ledger would still be able to continue doing business.

Just like Netflix banning password sharing. They will have decided they will make more money from people signing up for their own plans than they will lose from people cancelling or downgrading their plans.

In some countries, they enabled profile sharing with the condition that you pay extra for that option - in some other countries, they went in the other direction and even reduced package prices, but did not enable profile sharing even with an additional fee. Allegedly, the results of the new business strategy are more than good, and another streaming service has announced that it will introduce the same measure from the beginning of next year (D+).
1144  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CZ's view on Halving on: October 17, 2023, 11:05:19 AM
This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

‘99% of People' Will Lose Crypto Storing in Self-Custody: Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao
1145  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Are there any posts here about cryptocurrency fake news? on: October 17, 2023, 10:41:22 AM
All those who get information from such bad sources do not deserve to have something good happen to them. From some other sources, it seems that someone from their team made very nice money, and the apology is free anyway.


https://twitter.com/rollbitcom/status/1713919556568113503

When I just remember that that news portal paid members of this forum to shill links and that we barely got rid of them, and today they have become some kind of source of "crypto news", then I am not surprised that so many people are ill-informed and completely lost. My advice is not to follow them anymore, and not to post their links on the forum.
1146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is doubling your investment more probable than we think? on: October 17, 2023, 10:18:32 AM
Halving is something that is definitely happening, but don't forget the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US that can happen in the next few months, and most experts think that it will resonate very positively. In combination with the halving, it could very easily increase the price by at least x2 or more compared to the last ATH - which means that we could be talking about a price of $150k for 1 BTC sometime in late 2024 or 2025.
I haven't heard of it, to be honest. I've been quite busy with life the past few weeks, so I've lost touch with the news regarding cryptocurrencies. That would honestly be great, and I'd love to purchase some Bitcoin now, but at the same time, I'd rather not. It's a complicated matter, and I wish I could somehow speed up my accumulation process.

There is always the possibility that something positive will happen, but also that something negative will happen that will affect the price of BTC. Yesterday, the price briefly flew towards $30k because some amateurs announced that the SEC approved a spot ETF from BlackRock, which of course was fake news. If fake news has such an effect, one only has to wonder what will happen if at some point such news appears that will be true.

Investing in BTC is always risky, not only because of the price, but also because of the way someone stores such sensitive data. However, as the old saying goes, "he who does not take risks, does not profit", it is up to each individual what he will do with his money.

I already mentioned to you that it would not be bad if you look for a better paid campaign, you are a solid poster and you are active on the forum, why not take advantage of that?
1147  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Ledger's laying off employees. Thoughts? on: October 17, 2023, 10:01:32 AM
the data leaks we saw from Ledger and other companies never included any addresses or xpubs.

That's because Ledger didn't have them.  Once they launch their Ledger Recover service, they will.  They and the companies they're partnering with will have the keys AND the KYC needed to recover the keys.

The amount of coins never leaked anywhere which means those who still have those databases can't know who owns what. But since their names are on a list of hardware wallet users, it's reasonable to assume they have coins whose keys they believe are worth protecting with such devices.

Again, Ledger Recover didn't exist back then.  Ledger Recover is a new service which extracts keys from users' hardware wallets and includes the user's personal information (KYC).

I'm guessing you're not familiar with Ledger Recover, so here are some links you might want to check out:

----

Don't be naive, the fact that they only recently announced that they will enable such an option, does not mean that this option did not exist in the past - and considering that their devices are not completely open source, no one could know if it was possible to extract the seed from the device. Their CEO confirmed that everything is based on trust, that is, that the whole thing is whether we believe that the company will not do something bad, regardless of whether there is (or not) the possibility that some feature will be misused in some way by someone who will get access to their systems.

I would not agree that @Pmalek is not familiar with the recover option, because all those links you posted have long been in the topic : Ledger Recovery - Send your (encrypted) recovery phrase to 3rd parties entities
1148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin ETF Approval: FAKE NEWS! on: October 16, 2023, 03:03:26 PM
When someone trusts that source, he gets exactly what he was looking for, which is fake news or a poorly written article. It seems to me that someone from that team did it on purpose and made good money, and all that nonsense about the investigation is only for naive people who believe in fairy tales.

If it happens that the SEC approves such an ETF for anyone, be sure that you won't read it first on some third-rate portal that doesn't know how to produce anything other than clickbait titles.
1149  Economy / Economics / Re: In times of war, Gold rises. What about Bitcoin? on: October 16, 2023, 02:53:23 PM
I've seen Gold market prices rising lately as a result of the current Israel-Hamas conflict. However, Bitcoin hasn't experienced any upsurge in price. It's still hovering around the $26k range. Something similar happened during the Russia-Ukraine war.

I am surprised that you start a topic like this without checking the facts, and they say the following:

The price of gold in the last 7 days is up an incredible 3.44%, and the price of BTC in the same period is only 2.47% - where do you see any significant difference in this that is worth discussing?

Is it because investors still don't trust Bitcoin as a store of value? Or is it something else? Please enlighten me. Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks. Smiley

Unfortunately, I don't believe that this is possible considering that you asked similar questions in the past and did not take all the answers into account. It is completely pointless to compare gold and Bitcoin, you should have learned that a long time ago.
1150  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: YouTuber's hype video is not good advice on: October 16, 2023, 02:06:29 PM
Could you recommend crypto-related YouTube channels for a beginner?

I won't say that you won't find some good, honest and informative videos on YT, but I think that there are very few of them and that it is quite easy to get lost in the pile of videos that the OP is talking about. Maybe it would be better if you start reading about some basic things instead of videos, and I think it's much easier to filter such content.

To begin with, I would recommend you to visit - > https://bitcoin.org/en/ and to pay special attention to the section called Resources.
1151  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: More secure ways of storing bitcoin? on: October 16, 2023, 01:42:39 PM
How do institutional investors store and protect their Bitcoin assets?
Institutional investors, such as hedge funds and corporations, have different ways of storing and protecting their Bitcoin assets than typical user wallets.

As others have already written, rumors say that such investors still choose custody options that are supposedly based on cold wallets and therefore should be beyond the reach of hackers - and most CEXs claim that only a small part of the cryptocurrencies they keep for their clients is in hot wallets.

I would conclude that large and ordinary investors consider CEX as some kind of crypto bank, which of course does not make much sense when it comes to Bitcoin. Although such funds are always at risk, perhaps considering the knowledge of these people, it is a safer option than non-custodial wallets. Being your own bank is not easy and carries with it great risks, and sometimes it is much easier to leave those risks to others.

No matter how we look at this question, the fact is that there is only one correct answer - that regardless of the custody storage method, the well-known saying "not your keys, not your coins" still applies.
1152  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is doubling your investment more probable than we think? on: October 16, 2023, 01:26:53 PM
~snip~
However, I tend to have a more pessimistic and down-to-earth approach to this matter. Bitcoin's current price is ranging from $27,000 to $28,000 as we speak, while we will also occasionally see it as low as $25,000. With that being said, in my opinion, sometime after the halving, the scenario of Bitcoin surpassing $50,000 doesn't sound too impossible to me. Thus, if we suppose that someone purchases Bitcoin now, approximately within a year, he or she may be capable of doubling their initial investment.


The halving never caused the price to rise instantly, it happened only after 6+ months, and it is possible that there won't be a significant bull run until Q4 2024. However, I do not see it as unrealistic (or impossible) that we have a pre-halving effect that could perhaps cause a 25% to 50% price increase before April 2024. Anyone who invests today and gets the opportunity to earn 100% after 1 year should be happy if that happens, but if they don't want to risk it, keep the money in the bank or under the mattress.

I know that these are all pure assumptions, but instead of speculating massive ATH and 3x or 4x returns, which are way too common in the forum, why not expect something that is more probable to happen in the near future? And to be honest, doubling your investment is a great yield that cannot easily be found in other forms of investment.

Halving is something that is definitely happening, but don't forget the possible approval of the spot BTC ETF in the US that can happen in the next few months, and most experts think that it will resonate very positively. In combination with the halving, it could very easily increase the price by at least x2 or more compared to the last ATH - which means that we could be talking about a price of $150k for 1 BTC sometime in late 2024 or 2025.
1153  Other / Meta / Re: It is bad to use AI to help my post quality improve? on: October 16, 2023, 01:00:14 PM
The post you mentioned was created on "July 25, 2022, 02:20:35 PM," and based on my research, ChatGPT (the only AI I'm aware of) was launched on November 30, 2022. So, how could a verifier predict that my post is AI-generated when it was created before the AI was introduced?

Before you write something, it would be wise to check the historical facts, because what you claim is simply not true. Each of the posts in question could have been created with the help of AI, because at that time they existed and were publicly available.

GPT-1, the model that was introduced in June 2018, was the first iteration of the GPT (generative pre-trained transformer) series and consisted of 117 million parameters. This set the foundational architecture for ChatGPT as we know it today. GPT-1 demonstrated the power of unsupervised learning in language understanding tasks, using books as training data to predict the next word in a sentence.

GPT-2, which was released in February 2019, represented a significant upgrade with 1.5 billion parameters. It showcased a dramatic improvement in text generation capabilities and produced coherent, multi-paragraph text. But due to its potential misuse, GPT-2 wasn't initially released to the public. The model was eventually launched in November 2019 after OpenAI conducted a staged rollout to study and mitigate potential risks.

GPT-3 was a huge leap forward in June 2020. This model was trained on a staggering 175 billion parameters. Its advanced text-generation capabilities led to widespread use in various applications, from drafting emails and writing articles to creating poetry and even generating programming code. It also demonstrated an ability to answer factual questions and translate between languages



The point is, AI detectors aren't that accurate so don't fully rely on it.

That's true (for now), and while I agree that one should always be careful when someone is accused of using AI for their posts, in some cases it's even more obvious that someone is using just such tools - especially if it's beginners, or when the quality of someone's posts improves dramatically overnight.
1154  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Ledger's laying off employees. Thoughts? on: October 16, 2023, 12:36:58 PM
~snip~
A security leak is more dangerous than a privacy leak. I mean, leaking names, emails, and addresses is bad, but leaking seeds or private keys and having your device manipulated equals the loss of coins.

So far (as far as I know) no HW company has been part of a scandal that involved seed being compromised in a way that could be hacked remotely/online, but Ledger will go down in history as the first company to allow hackers that possibility. Although I generally agree that leaking seeds/private keys is a complete disaster financially, sometimes leaking data that includes the physical addresses of HW customers can have even more serious consequences, because apart from what you have stored on HW, you can endanger the life of yourself and your family.



This is true until fake and/or back-door firmware will not modify the data immunity inside Passport device otherwise they have the option to leave this wallet despite it is airgapped device.

I wonder how likely it is that something like that would happen and do you think that someone from that company or some hacker would do it? However, I think that the majority of people who buy such HW are not so naive as to fall for such a trick.

I would not put all trust on a single manufacturer. In my view the best setup for your stash is a multisig wallet with at least two airgapped co-signers, say Passport and ColdCard MK4 (or coming ColdCard Q1).

For those extra paranoid, maybe even that wouldn't be enough, but it's certainly better than the option of completely trusting only one manufacturer.
1155  Economy / Economics / Re: Europe unemployment rate hits record low, employment record up on: October 15, 2023, 02:10:12 PM
~snip~
On top of that, we have to add to this 3.5 million work permits issued this year for foreigners that want to work in this craphole called EU.

I do not doubt the data you presented at all, because I know that they are facts, and considering that I live in the EU, I know what the situation is regarding the availability of work and unemployment. What I want to refer to are precisely these work permits and the import of (mostly cheap) labor which, on the one hand, meets the need for labor which is simply not there in some countries, but on the other hand, all these people have a very difficult time adapting to our local societies, and in a certain percentage represent a great security risk.

The example of France, Germany or Sweden speaks for itself when it comes to such migrations, and the disastrous demographic policy in many countries does not work for us at all - while one of the EU demography commissioners (from my country) talks about how the solution for that problem is in African countries.

I do not think that this is even close to the solution we should strive for, because although we solve the problem in the short term, in the long term we risk huge cultural and social problems with such a policy.
1156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the selling pressure in the ATH level can be a problem to reach $100k? on: October 15, 2023, 01:46:18 PM
If we start from the fact that most people invest in Bitcoin exclusively for profit, then there is no doubt that any significant price increase results in a certain sales pressure, which again can mostly be amortized with increased demand due to the appearance of new investors who will be carried away by the FOMO wave.

You should also take into account the fact that a large amount of BTC is in the possession of investors who have kept it for more than 5 years and bought it at significantly lower prices than is the case today, and considering that $100k is a very nice and round number, many have it as an exit point - especially those who dream of becoming millionaires and have at least 10 BTC at the moment.

It would therefore be logical to expect that the selling pressure will be much greater than before when a new big bull run starts, and we should not ignore institutional investors who will be looking for their opportunity for profit.

As for the halving and the price change, I don't believe that anything positive will happen right away - and maybe even a slight drop will happen, which will be precisely caused by your way of thinking. What I want to say is that too many people see the halving as some kind of magical trigger that automatically raises the price, but the matter is much more complicated.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin base case target on 2030 is $682,800 according to Ark Invest on: October 15, 2023, 11:25:17 AM
Every year they make a new report, but they still don't say anything new except for repeating worn-out phrases and trying to cause FOMO. In addition, when I see that someone is speculating about the price of BTC and also gives a specific price that is not rounded for some reason, it convinces me even more that they are pulling these numbers out of a hat, and not from some serious analysis.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5422764.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5389589.0
1158  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Ledger's laying off employees. Thoughts? on: October 15, 2023, 10:44:32 AM
It's quite an expensive device to get in Europe despite their price reduction. I think you are still looking at around €250 if you buy it from an official reseller. But yeah, Passport definitely deserves one of the top spots now.
~snip~

The price is really around that amount (even a little more) with the addition that the costs of sending the package should be added to the total price. However, I don't think that amount should be an obstacle for anyone who has any amount of BTC that they feel is of great value to them. For some it may be 1 BTC, for others it may be half as much, but considering the security provided by the device, it is a small price to pay.

Of course, when we buy things like this online, we should always keep in mind what happened with the Ledger database, and avoid such a situation in the future. This means either buying the device directly in a physical store and paying in cash, or using a PO box.

There is another option, and that is if you have someone who travels to the US to buy you that device, you save some money and don't have to worry about possible data leaks and privacy threats.
1159  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Robert Kennedy Jr. Promises to End White House War on Bitcoin on: October 15, 2023, 10:24:08 AM
Awww he's so cute Cheesy
~snip~

You may have seen the picture I posted in one of the threads that the OP started on the same topic - and when you mention that RFK Jr. is cute, then what can be cuter than this picture - everyone who has dogs and turtles will vote for him Smiley





As for those people who still think that Bitcoin can change the world on a fundamental level, I wonder if they will ever come to their senses or will continue to live in illusions forever Undecided
1160  Other / Meta / Re: It is bad to use AI to help my post quality improve? on: October 14, 2023, 01:35:48 PM
AI writing tool is a very powerful tool, yet the tool is still incomplete.
You know the 80-20 ratio?
It takes 20% of time to give 80% of the information.
But it takes the 80% of time giving the last 20% of the information, that is indeed what makes the difference.
AI tools are really good at the first step, still they are not good enough for the last one, that is the one that makes the difference.
Thanks also to linking to my old post!


Honestly, when you were the first to write about it, it seemed to me that it was something quite harmless that would be very easily detected and that it would be treated as plagiarism on the forum. Since then, AI Chat has really improved, so today we read how various books, pictures or even movie scripts are being investigated due to the suspicion that they are not the work of humans.

From what can be seen in various threads in which posts are published that are suspected to be the product of AI, it seems to me that this thing has spread like a plague on the forum and that only a small part manages to be detected, and an even smaller part results with a punishment.

Thanks also to linking to my old post!

You're welcome - , because it is good to remember that the discussion about this problem existed years ago, and I think that things were already quite clear when it came to the use of this technology on the forum.
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