Of course, that thread link is a great reference to attempt to devolve into stock to flow analysis - even though I still remain of the opinion that stock to flow has never been close to breaking, and so whatever, I might be getting into linguistics a wee bit, because personally, if the price were to underperform and stay in this range or lower until the end of this year, then sure maybe some of the curves of the model would need to be shifted downward.. but I would still not concede that the model would be broken, even if it were required to be shifted downwardly in order to have better co-integration of data to the projections.
Another aspect is that there may well be some pretty powerful folks (whether we refer to them as bearwhales, governments, status quo financial institutions, other entities/persons who would like to cripple or kill bitcoin, those who want to manipulate bitcoin to make a profit, or some combination of these folks/entities) who would like to provide both factual and proclamation evidence that stock to flow is broken... yeah, play around what they like, they might get lucky in killing/crippling bitcoin, but the more likely outcome is that bitcoin prices are going to revert back to the mean of the stock to flow model, even if it could experience extended periods of divergence... 6-24 months or even longer, perhaps? perhaps?
I agree. I believe the S2F model is sound...for now. PlanB is given quite the runway in that the price still has all the way to 2023-2024 to violently correct upwards to the mean trend line and still be in play. If it doesn't after that, well then, the model will be broken. I feel that tracking "adoption" vs. price is meaningless at this point, as retail Average Joe investors as a group have an insignificant/inconsequential amount of price pressure capability compared to high net worth, big finance, and institutional adoption. |
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Unfortunately, their guaranteed predictions never come true, so the next narrative is always ready to be released once defending the previous version of The TruthTM has become untenable. That's why all the Independent ThinkersTM switch narratives at the same time - they're ultimately getting them from just a few sources.
At first we were all going to die from the vax - the narrative just fit too well with the classic "depopulation agenda". Once that didn't materialize, they tried the "be afraid of side effects" route. That one wasn't working too well, since it's too easy to realize that side effects (even excluding death) from COVID are orders of magnitude more likely & more severe than from any of the vax.
Now we shifted to "we will die from the vax later" and "infertility" - narratives which are sufficiently long term that they can be milked for a while before they have to be replaced due to actual reality disproving them.
This is the perfect example of what I like to call the "Invisible Dragon" argument. It goes like this: I have an invisible dragon sitting next to me.
Prove it does not exist.Any argument made will result in a simple explanation that expands the powers of the invisible dragon. It doesn't displace air because it has no mass. You can't touch it because matter bends around it. And so forth and so on. The root of the problem is the person making the assertion is demanding that other people *disprove* the assertion when the responsibility for proving the assertion is that of the asserter. The only way to handle this argument is to walk away. Same thing here: The virus will kill people in a month by the millions. Then a year. Then 10 years. Then "infertility". Always things that can't be tested, can't be proven, and when they do fail you just slip in another argument. It's a lot like the Millerites in the 1830's. This nutcase bunch attracted thousands by saying the world would end in 1843. When that didn't happen a "mistake" was found and it was 1844. Then it became "soon" and the sect split into the 7th day Adventists (nutcakes) and Jehovah's Witnesses. And they roll along to this day, saying the end of the world will be "soon". After all, try to prove the world "won't" end next week..... Annoying that people still fall for this crap. Yes, the flip side argument of pro-vaxxers that "We will all die unless 80%+ population gets the vaccine" or "We will never achieve herd immunity unless 80%+ population gets the vaccine" is the exact same invisible dragon argument. As time continues to prove them wrong, they will continually move the goalposts. A few years from now it'll be "We'll never completely 100% eradicate Covid infections and all of its variants because more people refuse to get the vaccine." Something that would be true regardless. |
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Conclusion: I think that at some point almost all will get infected (in the range of 75-90%) and, hopefully, vaccines would help with reducing mortality and serious effects-that's what the main purposes should be anyway, but people would get upset by the fact that current vaccines (even the best) are not as clear-cut as we all hoped them to be.
Either way we will get herd immunity its just whether we do it the easy or the hard way. 
Personally I took the blue pill, if I was younger it might have been the red..Yeah, but if you gain immunity through having your God-given immune system work for you as intended, the media wants you to feel like a shitty and selfish person. Shame on you!  |
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Not sure if this really counts as news to those present...  Oh! Inflation could end up higher than planned while printing all the brrrr. Who'd have thunk? Powell: "The world wasn't buying the 'inflation is just transitory' gaslighting I tried in the media. Oh shit, wait...is this mic on ?!?!" |
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Good job BlackHat. But you forgot to add the conclusion "Show me another retail investment vehicle that has had better performance gains over the last 8 years." |
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Kudos to the man who is making such posters and saving newbies to rather go for some shitcoins available in the market.  Someone send this to the CME group. Why would an investor buy a micro bitcoin futures contract worth 1/10th of a bitcoin, when they can just buy 1/10th of a bitcoin? |
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OT: I find it both hilarious and sad, that the general public doesn't understand why the stonk market ends each year ~10-15% in the green, when it doesn't even make sense to go up. Every single year. The markets will never have a single down year. And two in a row is completely unthinkable.
The secret is because it has to. The wealthy elites have to at least beat the high inflation every year to preserve their wealth, and the Fed will make sure to accommodate them by giving them free money and pumping the markets.
The general public only sees the interim ups and downs between January and December. But these market fluctuations are completely irrelevant. There will always be more up days than down every year. Regardless of the crumbling world economies.
The Fed will keep pumping markets until one day, it doesn't work anymore. Jobs will be completely gone, houses will be unaffordable, riots in the streets, and the markets will hit the highest of all time highs.
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It bugs me to see crybabies whining about MtGox.  If you were around for MtGox, 7.5 years ago, you have no excuse for not being rich now. Sure I lost 50 coins at MtGox. It was my own fault for keeping that much anywhere except offline in secure paper wallet cold storage. Sure I could whine about trying to get my coins out for almost half a year while they made excuses about needing identification even though my account was created anonymously. I could whine about their lying and ignoring tickets. Ultimately it was my own fault for having any coins at an online exchange. I got played for being a sucker/trader. The important thing is to learn from your mistakes. I stopped exposing my coins to the internet unnecessarily. I bought and sold only from ATMs and OTC. Eventually I built a network of OTC contacts. It's been years now since I've had to use an ATM. The important thing is to be patient and only sell when you absolutely must. If you need to pay a bill, so be it. When you achieve certain goals, enjoy a little. In January 2018 I sold a little on the "dead cat bounce" at about $21kCAD per coin and bought deluxe dental implants and property in Mexico. This year I was lucky to sell some at the ATH and buy a lake. My entire stash cost me less than a new car and most of it was bought post-MtGox. Spare me the crybaby whining please. I too will admit that I lost a non-trivial amount of coins at an exchange in the early days. I won't name the exchange, but it wasn't Mt. Gox. Did I whine or cry? No. My own stupid fault for trusting them. I learned, and moved on. Not your keys, not your coins. |
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And if someone thinks the integration of Bitcoin is a nothing burger, think this. When someone wants to buy with credit cards some items, there are numerous limitations by the card issuers. There is a day limit, a week limit, a monthly limit, and other obstacles which prevent the users from buying more items. Imagine the hassle of someone buying goods for $10K+ going to many banks, transferring money to multiple cards with limits like $2-3K and so on. I personally, would have bought 10x more items on amazon if I had the option to use bitcoin. When I had to buy for a short time many gpus, I used 2 credit cards. It seemed transactions were made, but then I received a message they were denied. Some limits activated and I couldn't unblock the cards for weeks. Finally, I had to make calls to my card issuer, explain the situation, call amazon support, until the items were canceled and the money refunded. And this happens all the time with new variations like the laughable 3d secure thing.
I can sympathize with all the hassles you list of using fiat/credit to purchase things. But until I, and all other Americans, can purchase bitcoin with 0% fees, and can make purchases to any merchant without triggering a taxable event, then having integration of Bitcoin into online merchants does absolutely nothing for us. Period. Using fiat is not only easier, but logically is preferred. I still don't understand why bitcoiners don't get this. Even normies and nocoiners get it. |
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Unpopular opinion:
1. Large well known companies buying and holding large amounts of bitcoin is bullish news. (because it eventually raises the price by taking btc off the market)
2. Large well known companies announcing they will accept bitcoin for goods/services is... well, not really bullish. (because it doesn't actually do that)
Some would say "Well #2 adds to bitcoin's legitimacy in the public's eye." Nations are now making it a legal currency. Tesla bought $1B worth. JP Morgan trades it and says clients can buy it. We have already achieved "legitimacy".
Wake me up when Bezos, Gates, Dimon, and Buffett say they bought several billion worth of bitcoin. Then I might actually get excited.
Until then...zzzzzz.
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Good morning Bitcoinland. Back to solid summer sidling in the mid-$3xxxx range... currently $33835USD/$42504CAD (Bitcoinaverage). Yawn. More coffee please. I do need to get a hat I am letting the team down. I will get to it asap
Talk to Homer: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=120694He's our milliner Mad Hatter. Hey Jimbo, how's the cabin in the woods coming along? |
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OT: What is this bullshit called TikTok, and why does the MSM so desperately want me to look at those shitposts?  |
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If miners are making profit, why will they turn off their equipment? If someone else turns off theirs, others will keep their own turned on, if possible.
Hashrate rose to chase the run up in price by the whale traders using 100X leverage. At ~$60K they were still profitable, but then the sudden crash to ~$30K and they weren't anymore. Exit the China 100X leverage momentum trade. So hashrate had to fall in order for mining to become profitable again. It's going to be roughly the same for both large scale and smaller miners. The miners turned their equipment off to reduce the risk to them of their hardware getting confiscated or getting discovered. One does not "lower" the difficulty all by themselves.
O rly? According to whom? Who told you that, the MSM? Lol  |
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I see miners doing fine as price and difficulty are in synch.
when you look at the numbers.
25.05 diff with 64k price
14.36 diff with 34k price
12.95 diff with 31k price. seems to be happening.
all generate the same or close to the same in cash value.
They are perfect for a chip short builder that has a large farm outside of China.
This trend will not go away until the fall.
Until bitmain and other builders get a lot of chips.
Nothing in the last eight weeks goes against this guess of mine.
So this time is different simply check the 2018 hashrate and difficulty rise while price dropped.
this time in 2021 hashrate and difficulty drop while price dropped.
I never bought the bullshit MSM narrative that "Chinese miners are getting kicked out of China due to govt crackdown." That is total bullshit. They didn't go anywhere. They simply turned off part of their mining hash power to bring mining difficulty in line with lower price to maintain profit. This is temporary. They will eventually turn it back on. |
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20 Things I've Learned (Or Had Confirmed) About Humanity During The 'Pandemic' (THREAD):
1/ Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right.
2/ At least 20% of the population has strong authoritarian tendencies, which will emerge under the right conditions.
3/ Fear of death is only rivalled by the fear of social disapproval. The latter could be stronger.
4/ Propaganda is just as effective in the modern day as it was 100 years ago. Access to limitless information has not made the average person any wiser.
5/ Anything and everything can and will be politicised by the media, government, and those who trust them.
6/ Many politicians and large corporations will gladly sacrifice human lives if it is conducive to their political and financial aspirations.
7/ Most people believe the government acts in the best interests of the people. Even many who are vocal critics of the government.
8/ Once they have made up their mind, most people would rather to commit to being wrong, than admit they were wrong.
9/ Humans can be trained and conditioned quickly and relatively easily to significantly alter their behaviours - for better or worse.
10/ When sufficiently frightened, most people will not only accept authoritarianism, but demand it.
11/ People who are dismissed as 'conspiracy theorists' are often well researched and simply ahead of the mainstream narrative.
12/ Most people value safety and security more than freedom and liberty, even if said 'safety' is merely an illusion.
13/ Hedonic adaptation occurs in both directions, and once inertia sets in, it is difficult to get people back to 'normal'.
14/ A significant % of people thoroughly enjoy being subjugated.
15/ 'The Science' has evolved into a secular pseudo-religion for millions of people in the West. This religion has little to do with science itself.
16/ Most people care more about looking like they are doing the right thing, rather than actually doing the right thing.
17/ Politics, the media, science, and the healthcare industries are all corrupt, to varying degrees. Scientists and doctors can be bought as easily as politicians.
18/ If you make people comfortable enough, they will not revolt. You can keep millions docile as you strip their rights, by giving them money, food, and entertainment.
19/ Modern people are overly complacent and lack vigilance when it comes to defending their own freedoms from government overreach.
20/ It's easier to fool a person than to convince them that they have been fooled.
Bonus thought:
21/ Most people are fairly compassionate and have good intentions (this is good) Here's hoping "21/" can carry the rest (1-20), with the help from Bitcoin we might just pull it off (I'm a sucker for happy endings). 2/ it's much more than 20% And 2/ tends to sit well with the far left and the far right. I know plenty in both of those camps. They have strong wish to control people and to be the "boss" Whether they are waving a rainbow flag or a USA flag or a BLM flag or a BlueLM flag. Plus the fucking media loves the turn the pot. If only people could step back from the extreme and meet at the middle, but ah that's a different world then this one. Thus the reason why Libertarian-ism, the most sane and logical compromise of all the political & social positions, has been stomped right into the ground and left for dead. Good job, Deep State. |
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OK. What the hell? I really like Tradingview, and there are some gems of shadetree analysis on there. Some really interesting ideas and insights. But WHY, WHY, WHY does ANYONE think shit like this is useful at all? This guy is one of the top follows on there. What the heck is wrong with people? He needs to come sit under the zen feet of Toxic for a while and learn about ducks diving for salamanders and things like that.  I feel for people like this. If they keep going like this, they'll eventually have a complete psychotic breakdown. I have images of this person being rolled out on a gurney in a straightjacket in ten years. |
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Have people on the internet lost all capability to think rationally? I keep reading shit like "The hash rate has dropped significantly, so yeah all Chinese mining has stopped. Miners---they're leaving China." No, idiot. It could also mean that mining machines in China were just intentionally turned off. Which also implies that they can just as easily be turned back on. In that scenario, you wouldn't know the difference, nor would you be able to confirm or deny.  |
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And the night begins to make things clearer
'cause the fire in the sky is burning us alive
There's a man on the street
With no shoes and no food to eat
While the man in the banker's suit is promoted higher
Here we go again with the war
Dollar drops oil prices soar
It's all part of their fucked up plan
Take cover
'cause the world is on fire
Full of greed and desire
We're living in denial
While the world is on fire
From the watch tower
I see a child's hope fading
In the name of their god
They even kill their own babies
From the Book we read
From the pages we bled
'cause the man in the religious suit
Is a paid liar
Here we go again with the war
Dollar drops oil prices soar
It's all part of their fucked up plan
Take cover
'cause the world is on fire
Full of greed and desire
We're living in denial
While the world is on fire
The truth shall set you free
But the man in the business suit is sworn
To hide it from thee
It's all about money
It's all about power
From the beginning of the age
Slavery's been all the rage
The world is on fire
World On Fire
--Barbed Wire Dolls
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