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1281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2021, 08:12:49 PM

OK... Fair enough regarding the unprobablistic way of characterizing your own framing of the matter, but still when we talk about a variety of possible unprobablistic scenarios it's like just throwing anything out there, and should we really be preparing our minds in those kinds of ways, even if our portfolio preparations might not match.

Or wouldn't it be true that your mind may well end up influencing your financial preparations?

Just does not sound healthy to me.. and surely, to go from the attempts to assert less probable scenarios into the assertion of way out there scenarios.

In other words, it seems way more reasonable to me to consider that if our most-likely scenario would have been to have been having the peaking out of the BTC price in this quarter, but if it does not happen, then we may well go to the 1st quarter of 2022 or the second quarter or the third quarter, and so it hardly makes any sense to skip those more likely scenarios of having some kind of delayed peak rather than completely snapping out of the matter and go along with the fact that "everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market."   Since when did it matter that everyone is starting to think that we might be entering into a bear market.  I am sure the same was true in 2013 with the silk road baloney and then all of a sudden. BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.  similarly with the various fork wars in 2017 and the various tragedies and Armageddons.. that was not exactly smooth, and then BBBBAaaaaaammmmm.

I just don't buy it.... yeah of course, you are even conceding that we might not have any kind of extended draw down, but why do we even need anything like that to take place?  We had 56% and we had 39%.. so why would there be any kind of need for more, even if everyone is thinking that we might need more... blah blah blah.

I am not attached to any kind of have to happen sort of blow off top is coming, but there aren't really any meaningful and significants\ signs that it is not, except for some bit of delay and a few pull backs along the way.. sure the pull backs do not look exactly like earlier pull backs, but so what?  They don't need to look exactly the same.  They are still in the same ballpark as similar enough to earlier kinds of periods of pullbacks, and all we really have so far is delay..

Sure, I will admit that throughout almost the whole of 2018, until that November collapse, I did hang onto the idea that there could be a 2013-like double top, so in that sense I was wrong about the "could be" and/or that the 2017 bull run had actually ended in December 2017.. but still even that was another more than 6x price increase (from the august/september foundation) that had already been a more than 10x increase from our $250-ish 2015 starting point.

So even if we take $4,200 for our 2019 starting point and we get a bit more than 2x to get us to the $10k September 2020 starting point, we ONLY have a 7x increase and some pretty decent sized corrections along the way to say the 56% from May/June/July and our current 39% one that has not yet been resolved regarding whether it is over.. I don't buy that those lame-ass whimpy theories are very likely to play out.. even if they surely are in the cards so I am not saying that the whimpy-ass theories are not possible.. but I am saying:  I don't buy it.. I don't buy it... .. because it just seems to be hanging onto negative scenarios for the mere sake of it.. when things are still looking pretty damned good in terms of a set up for another exponential top.. I mean one of the great things about exponential tops remains the fact that shorts keep forming to believe that it is over.. at $5k then at $8k then at $10k and so on and so on... and sure you can say that we already had that in the ride up to $65k (the first time around) and our second visit to $69k. .but I am not going to buy it.. not yet.. I am not going to appreciate that you are describing any kind of likely scenario.. even if it ends up happening.. I will say that you had merely been lucky with that nonsense whimpy ass description that bitcoin was going to be lame through 2022... and wait til 2023..

Call me a bulltard if you like (and I don't even think that I am really that stuck on bullish ideations), but the nothing is gonna happen until 2023 outlook makes wwwwweeeeeee little sense to me.

What i tried to say is that China and eastern markets were holding, mining and trading big amounts of bitcoin, in relation to other countries. These are just exiting, or have exited already under the pressure of the chinese government's ban. We're now somewhere near the bottom of this exit, imho. Hashrate has recovered globally, supply is sort of fixed, exchange illiquidity rising is a fact. The amounts of fiat to be injected to go over the 2021 top is substantial, even more so because many took their chance accumulating while the knifes (china #1 mid 2021, china #2 recently) were falling. Fresh money will come in when the bottom signal is clear. But it will take time to shift the needed amount of dollars from other markets or stores of value to Bitcoin.
I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.


1282  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 20, 2021, 07:41:15 PM

Huh?
1. Haven't they seen the latest numbers from London?
Omicron is cutting through the vaccinated like a hot knife through butter.

2. Omicron is not reported to be "milder".
...but it seems to lead to less hospitalization/intensive care rates.

3. Omicron is replicating primarily in different tissues than Delta.
This means the bodies LOCAL immune response (coughing, sneezing) will be more effective in combating of most of the viral load.

4. Boosters work, but not at the early stages of infection.
This means spreading the virus by vaccinated people is still a treat.

5. Boosters work NOW, (EDIT: In the Lab!). But what about 3, 6, 9 or 12 months later?
Decreasing immunity is a known issue.

6. Secondary effects (a.k.a. network effects) are not even looked at.
Imagine millions over millions of symptomatic infections in the population, more or less simultaneously. Regardless of how mild the symptoms are, the effect of too many people getting sick at the same time has the power to bring the system to its knees.

I can't fucking believe that so called EXPERTS are not looking at these aspects, clearly seen in other places of the world, with the UK as a current example.
Seems like the USA will be fucked over again by the incompetence of their leaders.
*Omicron silently chuckling in the background*

Over here in Europe, we are only a few weeks ahead. Watch what happens in January.
Can't stop to SMH, really.
1283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2021, 06:34:37 PM
Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  Grin

Wow...

some peeps already skipping ahead to 2023..

jeezus fuggin crist....

I mean... I am not really that much of one to focusing on the various difficulties to predict short-term doldrums.. but presuming away 2022 as if it were going to be too boring seems a kind of fallacy of assigning too much certainty to the short-to-medium term as well, no?

It's like presuming too much about nothing interesting to happen in 2022... and seems to me still that so much interesting can happen in 2022.. even if it ends up being boring, the potentiality (and even likelihood for interesting) is still there (until it is not)..  ..

I will actually assert that in some sense, there is some interesting aspects to our current dip that has so far reached 39% in regards to whether more weak hands can be shaken out and how long this can last.  Will we have a break to the upside or to the downside... interesting.. interesting... interesting.. and another thing, can we retain sideways for the remainder of the calendar year (sure seems reasonably possible), but how long can we retain sideways into 2022.. can it even last a whole month, or are we going to get a quarter out of sideways... Can you guys even imagine a whole fucking quarter of sideways with the level of tension that we seem to have currently?  I have a lot of doubts that sideways is really sustainable at these prices (let's say between $38k and $55k) for that long, but hey what do I know?

Noooo  Grin
I don't say 2022 will be negative or boring at all, but as cycles are getting delayed (ATH wise), and hodlers are bravely accumulating at dips, many bearish hands in china and the east were already shaken out, the reasoning of (projected) gains in 2023, when everybody and his pet is expecting a bear market, would not be that unrealistic.
If we ATH 2022 again, the correction may go way less deep than expected (with -80% as a reference), followed by gradually rising in 2023. We didn't have that before, so it's likely to happen, since king daddy doesn't care...

EDIT: Call my way of approach something like  "unprobabilistic mode" or else, IDC  Grin
1284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2021, 03:52:59 PM
shitty ta with a shitty flag on a shitty looking chart 

Santa: HO HO HO..and what do you want for Christmas little man?

Little Johnny: Please dump it sub $30k and lower over the next bear market cycle so I can buy the dip.

Santa:  ....

merry fucking hoho you hoes


#dyor

D

#stronghands

Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  Grin

1285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2021, 08:17:51 AM
Buddy breaker  Grin
The market put its red glasses on  Huh
1286  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 20, 2021, 12:00:24 AM


I can't help but to feel my asshole neighbors starting a dispute we steamrolled them on in the end, resulted in the untimely death of someone that was working on a project for us. That weighs on me.

This timeline really sucks right now.


A sad story.
I don't want to downplay your feelings, but aren't you feeling overly responsible for this death?
I mean, isn't it likely he would have traveled to Mexico to the same time, with the same results as without being involved into the fence project?

There's a reason for this question. I was once in a similar situation. A friend has taken his own life, poisoning himself at home. I planned a visit some day, called him, he didn't pick up or call back. Two days later, when i tried again, the phone was offline and never came back on. Then i had a bunch of other problems to take care of, when i heard he was found six weeks later by one of our friends. This one needed mental help after the discovery of the remainings of a man, died six weeks ago in a warm room.
He said he will never forget the look of it.

So, did i feel overly responsible? Yes. A fucking lot, quite some time.
At the funeral, i though that i could have gone to his flat and just knock on the (unlocked) door and/or enter.
Maybe it would have been early enough to save his life.

Now his ashes are at the cemetery, and he wished for them to be thrown into the sea on the letter they found.
At least i have a chance to do him the honor, i don't know when i will do it. Involves serious planning and the help of at least one companion.

Sometimes, when we think we could have changed something bad happening, we feel overly responsible.
Sure, we are responsible, but not that lot, imho.
His neighbor, who attended the funeral asked me to not feel responsible for my friends death.
1287  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 19, 2021, 10:19:33 PM
Here's my local, personal experience. I have lost a buddy and a colleague. At the home for the elderly where my GF works, more then 20% of the people who lived there died. Not a nice way to go btw. My GF has long covid, now 1,5 years. Many colleagues and friends have been sick and some have needed hospital care and some have needed months to recover. I have not heard about a single problem with vaccinations.

But indeed, just local, personal experience. The problem here is that we disagree on where to get the larger numbers.

Having had a scientific education myself, I really dislike this 'dyor' mantra that is going around. As it presupposes you should not trust the research (the real, peer-reviewed scientific research) done by people who actually know what they are talking about.

Yesterday my wife told me about her working colleague's wife, who had long covid, but when she got vaccinated about 6 months after her infection, the long covid symptoms disappeared within days. Might be a coincidence, might be not. EDIT: might not work in every case, if not.

EDIT 2:
What we know: The vaccines are triggering a specific immune response, which is mainly capable of successfully combating the virus in the later stages of infection, which are said to trigger "cytokine storms" because of inflammation. This should match the mentioned case. Maybe her immune system just needed a quick, well targeted jumpstart to finally get rid of the last remaining pieces of SARS-CoV-2 from the blood/organs.

1288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2021, 10:05:51 PM
I think moving these posts would suffice, tbh.

I'm fine with that. No difference as far as I'm concerned. I don't care to engage in those discussions particularly much. As far as I can tell, everyone is doing their best to get through this as well as they can and there is not enough quality data being collected to make more than an approximate estimation of the best course of action and that will vary for different people in different circumstances in any case. I find the hate that's being genned up around this situation to be very concerning, particularly as it accompanies a rush to curtail freedoms.


As a rule of thumb, in complex systems (like a pandemic) simple solutions fail most of the time, not only by producing more problems by "unwanted side effects".
1289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2021, 09:18:56 PM
sub $10k = 2%
  
$10k-$20k = 6%

$20k to $30k = 12%

$30k to $40k = 18%

$40k to $46k = 23%

Total percentages for downspike scenarios:  61%

then hopefully you are able to line up your BTC buy orders in accordance with your assignment of probabilities accordingly.  So of course your numbers might be different than the ones that I have described above.. and maybe those are approximations of my own?  Don't get me wrong, the fact that I might concede a down spike having 61% odds of happening would not mean that I would necessarily consider any of these to be sustainable or even BTC's likely direction, since I still consider that we are in a bull market, but there could be some questions regarding how much more downward movement might happen, how long it might last, and then if such additional down does end up happening, then does such down change the odds of more down or take us out of the bull market after a certain price range or duration in being at such price range.

My lowest order is actually at 20000$.

Why do you only allocate 61% and not 100% ?

39% are upside scenarios?

If AlcoHODL had left out the condescending rant against people who choose not to take the vaccine, he never would have triggered me. Plus he posted it here, instead of Bob's off-topic thread he was already aware of, because he's posted there before also. He knew EXACTLY what he was doing. And all you guys are applauding him for it.

This, basically.

Though I find more reprehensible those who are calling out those who responded to it. If you don't want counter-responses, don't post on controversial topics. Those who are crying that only their point of view should be expressed can go piss up a rope.

Whoever the hell is modding this these days should just delete the whole shebang, including this comment.

What!?
Are you trying to tell us that if infofront ever quits moderating the WO, his successor could (theoretically) cause the "Great Reset" of WO?  Shocked
I think moving these posts would suffice, tbh.
Didn't i discuss about "freedom" with someone of us recently here?  Wink
1290  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 19, 2021, 08:19:26 PM

The vaccines aren't to blame for anybodies death by Covid. The manufacturers never claimed a 100% protection against death in vaccinated persons.

Yes, "they" absolutely did in the beginning. They claimed that vaccinated people would not contract Covid, nor spread it to other people. And they flat out lied to the public. The vaccine makers already knew about all the side effects and clinical trial deaths, but want to suppress that data for 55 years.

https://dossier.substack.com/p/memory-hole-virtually-every-major

Quote
“Our data from the CDC suggests that vaccinated people don’t carry the virus, don’t get sick and that it’s not just in clinical trials, but it’s also in real world data.” - CDC Director Rochelle Walensky.

You will know them by their wording.
"suggest" is a vague, unscientific term they chose on purpose.
On the other hand, the public loves to be manipulated and exploited for the profit of a few.
Still, vaccines help a bit. But if they would be "marketed" this way, who would reason to take them?
As i said before, it's not only about wellbeing of people. This is the shit we have to cope with at this development stage of mankind. We're probably still early, as a species.
1291  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 19, 2021, 07:36:07 PM
Reply to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58765760#msg58765760



This is disgusting. Dirty dirty dirty move... using the death of fellow WOer's close relative to shill your anti-vaxxer shit.  Sad

STRF suffers from a sick and powerful ego, maybe even from a serious mental condition.
 
@AlcoHODL: Really sorry for your loss.

@WO's:
Don't let us forget who the enemy is. It's not the "vaxxers", nor the "anti vaxxers", nor the conspiracists or emotionally numb s-holes.
It's the novel, mutating bitch of virus. It is a challenge that we have to take, it won't go by without the price we have to pay, as humans, as society, as humanity, as a group of BTC believers trying to have fun and debate on the biggest forum thread of bitcointalk.org.
I don't care how but anybody is free to do as he likes, as long as he takes care about himself and others.
Vaccines, masks, pills, distancing... whatever. Just don't try to be a selfish prick.
AlcoHODL's post and response was not about the Covid directly, it was about his tragic loss.
That's why he supposedly posted it here, like many of us did, even if it wasn't related to Covid.



A relative of my uncle died recently with Covid-19, and he was 100% fully vaccinated.

I never posted it here for sympathy and to go on an epic rant about vaccines, but should I have? I thought this was the Bitcoin WO thread.

If AlcoHODL had left out the condescending rant against people who chose not to take the vaccine, he never would have triggered me. Plus he posted it here, instead of Bob's off-topic thread he was already aware of, because he's posted there before also. He knew EXACTLY what he was doing. And all you guys are applauding him for it.

You guys talk all this smack about being tolerant and understanding, and letting people chose for themselves. But then you allow and celebrate the virtue signaling and condescension. smh

EDIT: Oh and Jimbo, it's not about "bullshit politics". It's about personal freedom, liberty, and choice.

You're right and you know it. But why the grudge? It doesn't help.
The vaccines aren't to blame for anybodies death by Covid. The manufacturers never claimed a 100% protection against death in vaccinated persons.
Sure, we know about the mess in Pfizer's "studies" about vaccine safety, we know about the governments that are all about avoiding damage to the economy and healthcare system, not about the wellbeing of the people which they are pretending to be committed to.
Let's concentrate on the real treats: The ongoing division in societies, the growing hate against people with different opinions, expecting our children to act like adults and just accept whatever stupid, corrupt politicians throw at them, effectively stealing their childhood.
On the other hand, safe vaccines are soon to be available on the market, but still they won't be 100% effective. SARS-CoV-2 in all it's variants is a different beast. We will integrate it, as our ancestors did with the flu(s), but it will take big sacrifices, also because we made and will continue to make mistakes, as imperfect as we are, but we have to try keep it them to a minimum.

Bad news as of the freedom aspect: There is no real freedom for us humans.
It's an illusion, and THE most excessively discussed topic in the philosophic field of psychology.
In fact we're always dependent on something, and the psychological concept of free will is a try to escape from this omnipresent dependence of mankind.
We're not even "free to decide" anything (free choice), because we were already manipulated beforehand, since birth.

Sorry for your loss, bro. Each loss is one too much, imo.
Act wisely.

I think there is no hope. I now understand Bob better when he sometimes talks so lowly about that space rock we are all living on.

It's dedication what we are living for. Everybody with the tiniest spark of life inside is dedicated to something. Something that keeps us moving. That's what is still worth living on this space rock of shit. Just my 2 cents.

EDIT: If it helps anybody, the following inspiration is what helped me to overcome my quarter-life depression:

Life is bigger than you think. In fact it's the greatest thing of all universes (let's not concentrate too much on the paradox aspects).
I mean Life that includes all forms of life, even a coronavirus, stupidly seeking to survive through simple, erroneous replication in host cells.
As soon as i was able to accept Life as such, i was able to see how great it is, how incredibly lucky i am to be alive, here and now, which was never granted to nobody. The probability for me to have been born, depending on everything that happened, from the big bang to my day of birth, is incredibly small, for all of us. This, in turn, makes Life extremely precious. It's the base of all living things existing, everywhere, at any time.
I was hit by this insight after my last trip on LSD, the greatest drug of all times, imho.
It seemed to me like this was the reason i took it and it has served its purpose. It saved my life, because i was already on the verge of suicide, as my insecure, younger me.

EDIT:
DISCLAIMER


It may seem that i glorify LSD in the above posting texr, but i'm not.
Honestly, at least half of the time, the "last LSD trip" was irritating and unpleasant. It was a complicated life for me back then, those who know LSD should know what that means in regard of tripping. This negative aspect of the experience sure played a part in finding my decision to quit taking the drug.
1292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2021, 06:57:05 PM


This is disgusting. Dirty dirty dirty move... using the death of fellow WOer's close relative to shill your anti-vaxxer shit.  Sad

STRF suffers from a sick and powerful ego, maybe even from a serious mental condition.
 
@AlcoHODL: Really sorry for your loss.

@WO's:
Don't let us forget who the enemy is. It's not the "vaxxers", nor the "anti vaxxers", nor the conspiracists or emotionally numb s-holes.
It's the novel, mutating bitch of virus. It is a challenge that we have to take, it won't go by without the price we have to pay, as humans, as society, as humanity, as a group of BTC believers trying to have fun and debate on the biggest forum thread of bitcointalk.org.
I don't care how but anybody is free to do as he likes, as long as he takes care about himself and others.
Vaccines, masks, pills, distancing... whatever. Just don't try to be a selfish prick.
AlcoHODL's post and response was not about the Covid directly, it was about his tragic loss.
That's why he supposedly posted it here, like many of us did, even if it wasn't related to Covid.



A relative of my uncle died recently with Covid-19, and he was 100% fully vaccinated.

I never posted it here for sympathy and to go on an epic rant about vaccines, but should I have? I thought this was the Bitcoin WO thread.

If AlcoHODL had left out the condescending rant against people who chose not to take the vaccine, he never would have triggered me. Plus he posted it here, instead of Bob's off-topic thread he was already aware of, because he's posted there before also. He knew EXACTLY what he was doing. And all you guys are applauding him for it. smh

I will link to this post and answer in the other thread.

EDIT: Because this is the Bitcoin WO thread, but it evolved to something much bigger.
Some may agree with Bob's take on keeping this thread cleaner, some don't. In fact it is keeping WO cleaner, but not perfectly clean.
I'd just take back some offensiveness and continue as advised. I can understand both of you. Every useless death is one too much, regardless of the circumstances.
1293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2021, 06:02:46 PM


This is disgusting. Dirty dirty dirty move... using the death of fellow WOer's close relative to shill your anti-vaxxer shit.  Sad

STRF suffers from a sick and powerful ego, maybe even from a serious mental condition.
 
@AlcoHODL: Really sorry for your loss.

@WO's:
Don't let us forget who the enemy is. It's not the "vaxxers", nor the "anti vaxxers", nor the conspiracists or emotionally numb s-holes.
It's the novel, mutating bitch of virus. It is a challenge that we have to take, it won't go by without the price we have to pay, as humans, as society, as humanity, as a group of BTC believers trying to have fun and debate on the biggest forum thread of bitcointalk.org.
I don't care how but anybody is free to do as he likes, as long as he takes care about himself and others.
Vaccines, masks, pills, distancing... whatever. Just don't try to be a selfish prick.
AlcoHODL's post and response was not about the Covid directly, it was about his tragic loss.
That's why he supposedly posted it here, like many of us did, even if it wasn't related to Covid.

1294  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 18, 2021, 10:06:40 PM
What i don't understand is why secondary covid19 factors are not getting more attention, like obesity, diabetes, age, ace-2 receptor load etc.
Single-approach measures like vaccination should be known to fail more often than not, in context of history.

well here in the usa we have the sugar and junk food lobby groups to bribe donate to politicians to protect our right to get morbidly fat.

That's only one aspect, though. But... from what i know of my little motherland, about 80% of ICU patients are obese at minimum.
It's something about fat cells that react on inflammation. Would fit the heart-failure/stroke rate of obese people, since we know that blood clots are consisting mainly of waste products of the body reacting to inflammation within the arteries or arterial wall.
A dude i know had a heart-attack at age 39, some months after he drove a big nail through his upper arm. The infection was going on, maybe because he is a man that always works and never wants to rest for too long, and the clot was building up at the inner wall of an artery that the nail just missed, until it was released to the blood stream.


1295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2021, 09:35:10 PM
$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:


I don't really disagree with almost all of your points of your post - including if there is some kind of tension regarding the various price pressure points that could end up causing a short-term break down or up from here...

I do wonder a wee widdow bit regarding your on the face assertion that the formation of a buy wall would constitute actual support.. because whether we are talking about a supposed support wall or even an apparent wall of resistance - the presence of those kinds of support walls do not seem to provide convincing evidence of actual support. even though sure, there does not really seem to be any problem pointing them out... even if sometimes people will refer to them as reverse indicators.. and maybe whether you deem them as an indicator or a reverse indicator might be based on other things going on.... and surely questions regarding if they appear to get eaten through or pulled can be other aspects too, in terms of price wall analysis attempts.

Problem also is, bots could easily add to buywalls, to create an impression of solid support levels, and then revoke/lower their bids as the price is lowering.
BAM - price goes through the buywall...
I also examined the buildup of sellwalls as soon as there is a significant move upwards, and i also saw these limit orders moving upwards with price rise.
I doubt that that many people do this on an exchange in real time simultaneously. If you know what i mean...

Just talking out of my arse here, but if history repeats, the whales will be looking to grind it down to $40k. They know that $40k is a psychological level, so once there, I could see a flash dump crashing through 40k into the upper 30s, before taking off again. They wanna make the n00bs shit their pants and panic sell. Many new Mindrusts will be made that day.

Or, ya' know, the worst could be over. I still think the market is libel to go nowhere until the new year.

AFAIR, bear markets more seek like to slowly exhaust BTC buyers/holders. Less flash crashing, but a slow grind down, until "bitcoin is ded" sentiment becomes widespread. Letting hope build up, crushing it again, until the upmoves get weaker, price flattens out, final capitulation move (a.k.a. mindrust maneuver), looking kind of a mirror image of the bull-phase price action.
This time (as every time) it should be different, so comparing to 2013/14 and 2017/18 to now and possible future progressions shows that everything but the last commonly expected should happen. Could be constant or parabolic continuation after the Asia selloff and possible follow-up movements, could be premature bear market for another two years, could be mayor shifting of short capital by market participants from China/Asia that moved to other places on the planet to resume trading corn...
For the short term, i agree on your thoughts about the price going more or less nowhere.
Since probably most of us kept going in for the fun of it too, we will witness the future of bitcoin and it will be anything but boring, in the mid to long term  Wink
1296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2021, 08:47:40 PM
$45K Buy Wall growth update from Coinbase Pro. Earlier was around 550, now around 700 BTC. Still thinking this one can hold:


I don't really disagree with almost all of your points of your post - including if there is some kind of tension regarding the various price pressure points that could end up causing a short-term break down or up from here...

I do wonder a wee widdow bit regarding your on the face assertion that the formation of a buy wall would constitute actual support.. because whether we are talking about a supposed support wall or even an apparent wall of resistance - the presence of those kinds of support walls do not seem to provide convincing evidence of actual support. even though sure, there does not really seem to be any problem pointing them out... even if sometimes people will refer to them as reverse indicators.. and maybe whether you deem them as an indicator or a reverse indicator might be based on other things going on.... and surely questions regarding if they appear to get eaten through or pulled can be other aspects too, in terms of price wall analysis attempts.

Problem also is, bots could easily add to buywalls, to create an impression of solid support levels, and then revoke/lower their bids as the price is lowering.
BAM - price goes through the buywall...
I also examined the buildup of sellwalls as soon as there is a significant move upwards, and i also saw these limit orders moving upwards with price rise.
I doubt that that many people do this on an exchange in real time simultaneously. If you know what i mean...
1297  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 18, 2021, 07:36:06 PM
So a 4 week lockdown in The Netherlands.

How long before us Brits will have the same?
It's almost here I reckon.


Yes, I took the fucking double vaccines (mostly with the outlook so I could travel abroad again in the new year) but I now pretty much regret getting this useless garbage in my arm as now Mr. snake oil salesman says "ah those don't work, but the boosters do." Fuck you all.


If my vaccine status runs out because of lack of booster they can literally shove their booster needles and bottles up their dirty assholes.

If I cannot ever travel abroad again, so be it.


I fear Boris will never establish a lockdown again, because it costs the government and his friends too much money.
As of vaxxination, more and more people will not want to get another shot over time. Vaccines work less with every new variant, people are slowly becoming aware. On the downside, governments tend to force vaccination via mandates, as we can see in some european countries already.
I keep my fingers crossed that Omicron will have a manageable impact on the health system. Otherwise we're pretty fucked in more than one way, because it's so fucking contagious.
As variants become more sophisticated in spreading, vaccination needs to be overthought anyway.
What i don't understand is why secondary covid19 factors are not getting more attention, like obesity, diabetes, age, ace-2 receptor load etc.
Single-approach measures like vaccination should be known to fail more often than not, in context of history.
1298  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 17, 2021, 08:07:39 PM
Hey, good news from a stupid lil european country i happen to have been born in:
They are now letting the army evaluate the situation, "support" the healthcare system and manage the national pandemic plan.
What could possibly go wrong?  Roll Eyes
1299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2021, 07:46:02 PM


Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.


That man is weak.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

(...more stupid bullshit...)



3000 days.
And you are comparing that to two weeks of no social interaction, "long time" in the dark and some fasting period?

Dude, whatever you shoot up your nose, vein or butthole, do a bit less of it!
"Trying to become a breatharian" involves recognizing and handling your ego.
You clearly failed that, too.

But you made me remember how contempt feels like. Let me thank you for that.




For the rest of the WO, i'm out for today, watching an action movie about some sporty gals slaying some badasses, exclusively with the missus.
Don't enjoy the price action at all (because i'm out of lump sum fiat atm).

Here's something to enjoy for photography lovers:


I know, it's getting odd slowly, but at this time of the year there is not much more to shoot than the sea of fog and icy landscapes.
Today i saw the sun shining low through a narrow band of trees, onto a slim cloud of fog, in the form of dozens of glowing stripes of light.
When i got there with the drone (slightly over 4 minutes of flight time) it was already over, the fog has passed by.
The most beautiful scene i have seen in a while.
Bad luck. Next time  Grin
1300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2021, 08:30:59 PM
Man that 50k sized rock is just sitting on Bitcoin for some reason. Weird.

Sub $10k buyers refusing to sell for less than 50k?
It's a matter of time until they're gone forever, Laura.  Grin
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