Surprising to see that nobody here is bothered by the fact that without explanation China suddenly started dumping like crazy. I'm still very curious what caused this.
It's taken us down 20 dollars now.
it is not china... if you didn't notice, there is someone who has been dumping for days, he dumps in ~ 500 BTC batches , then he waits for support to build up around $590-600 and then repeat... it has been going for a couple of weeks now, just watch when the soonest we come close to $600 it happens again, I think someone is cashing few thousands of BTC and doesn't want to trigger a panic selling and/or doesn't want to effect the price that much. How was that not China?? I was watching it in real time how hours ago China started dumping 1000's of coins which obviously resulted in Stamp following. Don't you see the charts and the activity on the Chinese exchanges. I stopped watching china long ago, I still believe that (some Chinese) beside faking their products they do fake their trading volume as well... I believe they can fake anything for some dollars. |
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Surprising to see that nobody here is bothered by the fact that without explanation China suddenly started dumping like crazy. I'm still very curious what caused this.
It's taken us down 20 dollars now.
it is not china... if you didn't notice, there is someone who has been dumping for days, he dumps in ~ 500 BTC batches , then he waits for support to build up around $590-600 and then repeat... it has been going for a couple of weeks now, just watch when the soonest we come close to $600 it happens again, I think someone is cashing few thousands of BTC and doesn't want to trigger a panic selling and/or doesn't want to effect the price that much. |
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I know nobody likes to hear this, but looking at the daily and 3 day MACDs slowly moving into a position that counters each other, I can see us in an uneasy balance between 500 and 700 for another month, maybe two :/
I agree, some known Bitcoiners are investing in other projects (Bitcoin unrelated), I was also discussing the price with a friend of mine and he said he doesn't think that a new rally will be that easy or that quick after the MT.gox fiasco... and he also said that people doesn't ever realize how MTgox will effect the future of Bitcoin regarding regulation and adoption. We see the same thing, but draw very different conclusions then. This is the first time in a long while that I recommend friends that asked me about it to buy in, if they had any intention to do so. In previous periods, I always considered the downside risk simply too great to make that recommendation in good conscience. Now, I'm telling them that they shouldn't expect huge rallies immediately, but I also consider the risk to the downside comparably controlled. I used to tell people to invest at any price if they are thinking about a long term investment (couple of years) but at this point I am losing faith, and the last time a friend asked me about investing I told him that I don't know and he has to study the whole market himself, I don't want to see friends being thinking how disappointing this investment was because of me. If you are talking about BTC, then i'm sorry for your friends. If you are talking about LTC then i agree with you. hah, you are funny, becaus today I see Bitcoin at $3K.... |
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I know nobody likes to hear this, but looking at the daily and 3 day MACDs slowly moving into a position that counters each other, I can see us in an uneasy balance between 500 and 700 for another month, maybe two :/
I agree, some known Bitcoiners are investing in other projects (Bitcoin unrelated), I was also discussing the price with a friend of mine and he said he doesn't think that a new rally will be that easy or that quick after the MT.gox fiasco... and he also said that people doesn't ever realize how MTgox will effect the future of Bitcoin regarding regulation and adoption. We see the same thing, but draw very different conclusions then. This is the first time in a long while that I recommend friends that asked me about it to buy in, if they had any intention to do so. In previous periods, I always considered the downside risk simply too great to make that recommendation in good conscience. Now, I'm telling them that they shouldn't expect huge rallies immediately, but I also consider the risk to the downside comparably controlled. I used to tell people to invest at any price if they are thinking about a long term investment (couple of years) but at this point I am losing faith, and the last time a friend asked me about investing I told him that I don't know and he has to study the whole market himself, I don't want to see friends thinking how disappointing this investment was because of me. |
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I know nobody likes to hear this, but looking at the daily and 3 day MACDs slowly moving into a position that counters each other, I can see us in an uneasy balance between 500 and 700 for another month, maybe two :/
I agree, some known Bitcoiners are investing in other projects (Bitcoin unrelated), I was also discussing the price with a friend of mine and he said he doesn't think that a new rally will be that easy or that quick after the MT.gox fiasco... and he also said that people doesn't ever realize how MTgox will effect the future of Bitcoin regarding regulation and adoption. |
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the average Bitcoiner will tell you " go fuck your self" and will add " what this PHD holder and nobel winner know about economics", in fact Bitcoin price is a bubble but it doesn't mean that it will die, but it will settle and start a normal growth when it hits the real economy... see the bubble was because of the small userbase but when the user base is bigger and market is bigger it will harder to move the price 10X a year.
I believe you underestimate the number of PhDs in the Bitcoin community. I don't, when you own Bitcoin the greed owns you, regardless of the education, I've seen very few reasonable people around here, people who talk some-sense and are not a perma-bull or a perma-bear all the time, people who openly and objectively talk about issues Bitcoin is facing. Really? I've seen many. Must be your join date  where are they now ? and you are surely not one of them |
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the average Bitcoiner will tell you " go fuck your self" and will add " what this PHD holder and nobel winner know about economics", in fact Bitcoin price is a bubble but it doesn't mean that it will die, but it will settle and start a normal growth when it hits the real economy... see the bubble was because of the small userbase but when the user base is bigger and market is bigger it will harder to move the price 10X a year.
I believe you underestimate the number of PhDs in the Bitcoin community. I don't, when you own Bitcoin the greed owns you, regardless of the education, I've seen very few reasonable people around here, people who talk some-sense and are not a perma-bull or a perma-bear all the time, people who openly and objectively talk about issues Bitcoin is facing. |
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Hardly ever (maybe not ever?) seen someone here proudly proclaim they ignored someone because he was being bullish all the time, or for being a bull troll.
Point is, so many times it's not a crap filter, it's an opinion filter. You blend out what you dislike until all that remains is an echo chamber, a perverse distortion of an already biased place.
People are free to do so, but they should realize that in the long run, they will only hurt themselves because exposure to contrary positions are important for one's emotional, intellectual and financial health.
true, each time I yelled CCMF or Bitcoin to the moon (even when it was clearly going down) no one seemed to be annoyed, and when I trashed Bears users seemed to agree, in fact, they even helped me, but when I started questioning the whole going up thing they turned against me and started trashing me.... in one hand I sy Karma but the in the other hand I say really few members have a voice of reason. we are dealing with Bitcoin jihadist here, they see only one path and who ever disagree with them becomes a troll and idiot dumb, so from now and on let every post shout " Bitcoin is a miracle and the price will be $100K very soon" |
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Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT.   Edited above for clarification(s).
I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.
YES..... You are amazing mmitech... just keep up with your non-responses by merely referring back to earlier non-responses. Seems as if you are having trouble really engaging with the topic... and really the whole point is being lost, anyhow with the passage of time. Let's just check back in 6 months and see whether your decision to cash out half of your BTC was a good one. I really doubt it, but fine, that is what you want to do. I suspect in the mean time, you are probably going to be making various trades though, in order to muddy the waters, and there is NOTHING wrong with engaging in ongoing monitoring of ones holdings and adjusting investment behaviors in order to respond to various changes in the market... (whether expected or NOT). you are so butt hurt really, I will not waste my time with your nonsense... That is your choice regarding whether or NOT you choose to engage. I really have trouble understanding how you come to any conclusion regarding how or why I would be "butt hurt" about anything. I tend to think that you are either lacking in vocabulary or possibly lacking in being able to hold more than one thought in your head at one time regarding potential motivations of others. Accordingly, probably, I should be more kind to you, except, your arrogance brings out a certain level of irritation in me which seems to cause me to be feel less sympathy for you and your situation and your motives and to be less kind towards you than what I would otherwise strive to be. In the end, I hope you will be able to get some value out of our exchange and possibly be able to reflect upon various back and forths that we had, even though they may have been somewhat less than interactive. you are now officially in my ignore list.... you are a pain in the ass, you think that you understand things but your head is totally empty.... don't respond to this because I wont see it and and I dont want to see it, you will remain in my ignore list. |
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Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT. Edited above for clarification(s).
I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.
YES..... You are amazing mmitech... just keep up with your non-responses by merely referring back to earlier non-responses. Seems as if you are having trouble really engaging with the topic... and really the whole point is being lost, anyhow with the passage of time. Let's just check back in 6 months and see whether your decision to cash out half of your BTC was a good one. I really doubt it, but fine, that is what you want to do. I suspect in the mean time, you are probably going to be making various trades though, in order to muddy the waters, and there is NOTHING wrong with engaging in ongoing monitoring of ones holdings and adjusting investment behaviors in order to respond to various changes in the market... (whether expected or NOT). you are so butt hurt really, I will not waste my time with your nonsense... |
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I understand your point about early investors also being the ultimate risk takers. However, that wasn't my point, to claim that there is a guaranteed profit. Neither is there one, btw, for the 2nd line of investors in a malicious pyramid scheme.
I'll try to paraphrase to clarify my point: the ultimate goal of Bitcoin as it is widely understood is reaching a capitalization that does not only represent the intrinsic value of the transaction network itself, but represents the global economic output (or a fraction thereof).
To get there, Bitcoin needs to successively reach global acceptance. Any speculative value in excess of the current usage + acceptance level will melt away should it ever become apparent that global acceptance isn't attainable. In that case, the earliest investors will quite likely sit on a healthy profit, while the latest investors might well face a substantial loss.
So far, no different from a stock, right? The difference is what I describe in the 2nd paragraph: stocks only measure the intrinsic value of the company they represent (plus hype, plus some industry wide multiplier perhaps). They don't require a growing user and investor base to hold a price (unless the price was vastly inflated by speculative mania). Bitcoin, from day one of trading, has been understood as a global peer to peer currency -- and its speculative value represented that. Should our little experiment ever fall short of our expectations for good, the price deflation would probably be so vast that at least the last 2 waves of investors would face a loss.
tl;dr Intensionally, you are right: Bitcoin isn't a pyramid. My claim is that extensionally, it is indistinguishable up to the point where it succeeds.
I can't see how even extensionally we can call Bitcoin a pyramid scheme. Just because it needs a growing user base, doesn't mean that those late investors will have more to lose than the early ones. Lets say an investor bought 100 bitcoins last November at $1000, and I buy 100 bitcoins now at $500, who will have more to lose ? Me or the early investor ? The claim that once the user base grows so does the price is false, just take the last 6 months as an example. A pyramid scheme would clearly favour the early investor. Indeed if the price will rise so does the risk of the late investors but thats the nature of a deflationary monetary asset, just like gold, but unlike gold there's no one who sets the price each morning based on their subjective view. I think I understand your point, but I'm not sure you understand mine: I am not claiming Bitcoin as an investment is a malicious pyramid a.k.a. a Ponzie. I am however pointing out that the user base/acceptance growth requirements placed on the market by the huge enthusiasm of the early adopters (i.e. us) and the extremely ambitious goals resemble that of a pyramid: we must grow at an exponential rate, or the experiment will probably fail. Good thing then that, so far, exponential growth in all the key metrics holds. (*)(*) That's not an endorsement of extrapolation from linear regression over log price. I continue to believe that this is way too crude (and imprecise) to be considered a useful predictor of future price for any practical purposes (i.e. trading). I understand and appreciate the effort you put upon the explanation and the simplification of things, but I think we are just wasting our time here, no matter what you will write they wont like it and they wont let it go except if you tell them " Bitcoin is great it is the innovation of this century and the price will be $100K soon" the same like Roger Ver and Andreas antonopoulos and many others told them... |
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I think $500 wont hold long term, this is a legit analyze |
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Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT. Edited above for clarification(s).
I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.
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the average Bitcoiner will tell you " go fuck your self" and will add " what this PHD holder and nobel winner know about economics", in fact Bitcoin price is a bubble but it doesn't mean that it will die, but it will settle and start a normal growth when it hits the real economy... see the bubble was because of the small userbase but when the user base is bigger and market is bigger it will harder to move the price 10X a year. life cycle of a bubblehttps://i.imgur.com/W4auDjC.pngNo offense, but anybody posting this chart should be banned from forums until he goes to school to learn that 350 is more than 100. Since you obviously didn't, can you maybe spare us from your very important observations? yes Mr. smart who went to school, just ban me. |
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anyone joins before you will make more money than you and everyone will follow (pyramid scheme), for example if you joined in 2010 when Bitcoin was worth pennies and invested $1000 you would make more than someone who joined in 2012 and invested $1000 when the price was $10 and he himself would make more than someone who joined summer 2013 and invested $1000 when the price was at $100 which also would make more that someone who joined November 2013 and invested $1000 when the price was $1000..
That is some silly nonsense, like the rest of your posts! So someone who would join now will "make" (whatever you understand by that) two times more than somebody who joined in November last year! The pyramid is upside down! you just think it is upside down, I look at the long term of things and you look at the short ones... |
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What I'm trying to say is, some amount of disagreement is to be expected. But, yeah, the aggressive, personal tone that developed pretty soon isn't your fault.
Do you concur with him that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme ? I have nothing against someone who knows how to make money & diversify his/her portfolio, but when someone talks nonsense its worth pointing that out to them. The term "pyramid scheme" is charged, and often equated with "Ponzi scheme". At least as an investment, Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme (though not a Ponzi scheme), in the sense that the earlier you got in, the more your investment will be worth, and without new blood entering, your investment doesn't grow. The big difference to the usual pyramid schemes though is that in our case, it is just the bootstrapping phase of a peer to peer currency/store of wealth. In other words: it has to be a pyramid scheme, because it needs to start from nothing, and aims to grow to capture a huge market. Lets say an very early adopter has paid lots of money for his mining equipment and bills but has chosen not to sell any of his bitcoins. If tomorrow bitcoin price collapses he will have a worse faith than someone who joined a year later than him but sold his bitcoins. Therefore In order to call it a pyramid scheme those early adopters should 1. make a financial gain bigger than the adopters that joined after him and 2. have a GUARANTEED PROFIT from the fact that others joined later. In our early adopter case neither is true. This could be the case with many bitcoiners which haven't yet recovered their investment which they made into mining while others who traded on the exchanges but joined later than them made much more money. Bitcoin is not a pyramid scheme because 3. there's not a level of differentiation between joining dates of participants, only that you acquire more knowledge of the inner workings of Bitcoin. also 4. you don't have to make a payment to join, you can merely offer your services in return for bitcoins and doesn't require you to buy or mine them, hence no initial payment is required for you to join. Overstock for example keeps 10% of bitcoins for their products. They haven't investment anything into bitcoin but still they can interact with some of the earliest adopters without Bitcoin making any distinctions between them. -well 4 years ago when they first wanted to valuate Bitcoin they took the mining cost average as an entry price, the demand was low so that was somehow fair, $1 was worth around 1300 BTC but today the mining cost doesn't have so much to do with the Bitcoin valuation, it is supply and demand what controls the price today, lets say you bought an ASIC for $10K which would mine around 10 BTC in its life time, the price of Bitcoin has to be more than $1000 for you to break even not to mention the costs of mining and the profit you wish to acquire, the statement above means that the price of Bitcoin has to be $1000 for you to break even and not should be, the price of Bitcoin will be where the demand meets the supply or what is the best bidder is willing to pay, to make it easy to understand: If I mined my coins 2 years ago, the mining cost for a bitcoin was less than $5, and if I dumped now I would ruin your investment and still make huge profit, this is one bad side of hoarding. 1- anyone joins before you will make more money than you and everyone will follow (pyramid scheme), for example if you joined in 2010 when Bitcoin was worth pennies and invested $1000 you would make more than someone who joined in 2012 and invested $1000 when the price was $10 and he himself would make more than someone who joined summer 2013 and invested $1000 when the price was at $100 which also would make more that someone who joined November 2013 and invested $1000 when the price was $1000.. 2- only Miners who started mining last year in the ASIC era lost investments or didn't make ROI in terms of Bitcoin (except avalon Batch1 customers and ASIC manufacturers), I mined with graphics cards and made a decent profit, then I retired my miners mid last year. and not all adopters who joined last year lost money, I happen to know many people who joined from January-September 2013 that made good profits, only people who bought at more than $700 are losing now and have to wait for their investment to pay back. and for that to happen pray for a new wave of adopters to join ASAP. 3- of course there is a difference in joining date, look at 1 ( my initial investment was around 3000€) for the same investment today (in terms of Bitcoin cost) you wouldn't come close to what the same investment would make you if invested 2 years ago. 4- a merchant accepting Bitcoin as payment and holding the bitcoin is the same as a new user joining, you have to understand what is money and why money have value, so merchants are exchanging goods and services for Bitcoin which give Bitcoin a value against these goods and services. same goes for your Fiat, it holds value only when you exchange it for goods or services otherwise you hold just a peace of paper or a promise from your government that paper has a purchasing power, but we all know that merchants doesn't keep the Bitcoins and chose and cash out the payment received with payment processors for zero risk, they add Bitcoin only because of a new userbase which is worst for Bitcoin price especial now that the adoption is declining. What I'm trying to say is, some amount of disagreement is to be expected. But, yeah, the aggressive, personal tone that developed pretty soon isn't your fault.
Do you concur with him that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme ? I have nothing against someone who knows how to make money & diversify his/her portfolio, but when someone talks nonsense its worth pointing that out to them. of course it is, do your math and grow up. ....bla...bla...bla..bla.... you are off-topic... again. |
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What I'm trying to say is, some amount of disagreement is to be expected. But, yeah, the aggressive, personal tone that developed pretty soon isn't your fault.
Do you concur with him that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme ? I have nothing against someone who knows how to make money & diversify his/her portfolio, but when someone talks nonsense its worth pointing that out to them. of course it is, do your math and grow up. |
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Is it so expensive to wander in the woods nowadays that you need an investment ? :-) Your investment isn't worth more because new users joined, but because Bitcoin is FINITE(current users will value 1 btc more tomorrow than they do today) & miners PAID MUCH MORE for their mining equipment & electricity bills(so they won't sell their mined bitcoins for less than it would take to recover their invesment). You understand Bitcoin worse than a newbie. You're really pathetic. you need some time to understand the whole picture, but whatever....it is not expensive to go to the woods but it is expensive to quit your job to have time to spend with your family doing things you love anytime, well this is *priceless*. you are still attacking me, you didn't provide a single valid argument against my arguments, another stupid post and you will go on my ignore list. |
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I will make sure to enjoy my time, thankfully to my dumb decision, and you can bitch about it as much you want, this year has been a 180° change in my life (in various aspects) and thanks to Bitcoin, yeah and thanks to you as well for joining and making my investment worth more. Some pictures from Today's Trip : http://www.sports-tracker.com/#/workout/mmitech/e0pk4sh2amjegqno[...] translation: eat a dick. ITT lots and lots of extremely skin thinned bulls in here. The rally so far not to your liking, gentlemen? Anyway, ignoring all the bile being spread in this thread... enjoy your time off, mmitech. I agree what some have pointed out, that there would have probably been better times to sell than right now, from a purely economical perspective, but you don't need to justify your decision when and how much to sell one bit. I don't need to justify my position, they turned this discussion about my personal decision... I pointed out that after I sold half of my stash my average cost now is $-400/Bitcoin so why would this be disappointing ? now even if bitcoin goes to zero I have nothing to lose, and thanks |
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