To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.

I doubt it, personally I trust MtGox the most, but that's just me. From what I gathered, it's banks hesitant dealing with MtGox that's the trouble.

He sure is. His entire purpose in this forum is getting pissed at me.

Honest question Shroom, have you traded at all, as in buying and selling?

You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

80k BTC on the book. Decimate, and onward with the positive feedback loop!

The thing is that people choose to blend in and blend out and interpret the news based on what price action the market has been in, not based on the news themselves.

Also, price actually causes news or events or a suited environment. Think about it.

Bitstamp hasn't stopped following MtGox's lead (with a spread), so it's safe to say that people are viewing MtGox's price as "real". As someone speculating on MtGox, say MtGox suddenly opened their valves and the withdrawal backlog is cleared within a week, I think there's a good chance for the bull trap to still play out. Maybe stunted. And if MtGox doesn't fix it, the spread will just stay even or increase.

Forget about the news, they don't matter. We're going up because the charts are looking good.

I've been short term bullish for days, I'm seeing a large bull trap playing out. Polarizing people here don't seem to comprehend that there can be different time frames and different levels of certainty.

Take note, we surpassed 104. Fun ahead.

Looks like we agree fundamentally then, my point is if Bitcoin were in a different phase it could have been perceived as dreadful news. Think opposite of Cyprus. It's always the same nonsense justifications.

He's right. It's only perception of news that counts, not the news itself, and that can vary depending on what kind of price environment we are in.

This is how the Bitcoin community and the media work. Remember Cyprus? Neither do I.

How many business days is it now to 180?

Poor Goat.

I agree with you that this bull trap is probably sponsored by MtGox's incompetence. However, I see a slim chance that MtGox will fix everything and send everybody their money before the move I'm looking for occurs. The actual problem here is that people still believe MtGox's price is real, and not just a devaluation of the mtgoxUSD. So when mtgoxUSD gets further devalued, people think it's a rally and buy on Bitstamp. That's just the environment we have to deal with.

And indeed it's true that only few Bitcoins that have left the visible order book on MtGox have hit Bitstamp so far.

@ardana

What's your problem with simple psychology?

115 was the high from the bounce off 88. 110 is good too, it's marked by enormous volume. Largest volume on a 4h candle since the beginning of May.

This is a fundamental scared fiat bull trap.

First mark to watch, 104. Second, 115.

Remember: If you buy early into a bull trap, you avoid paying +50% and buying into the top thinking it will go past 266 again. If then you become deluded, at least your losses will be mild and you can sell at cost.

And I will say it again. 99 is expensive, 101 is cheap.

No more single digits for the third millenium.

Then we will revert to no more triple digits for 2013.