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2041  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Crypto Gambling and Fantasy Sports - A Gap in the Market? on: March 02, 2021, 05:28:41 PM
There are existing cryptocurrency based fantasy sports platforms. They're underutilized due to them not being updated in more than 12+ months last I checked.

Fantasy sports are much more heavily regulated, restricted and illegalized than gambling in the USA.

Fan duel, draftkings and other fantasy sports sites are illegal in the US states of: arizona, alabama, hawaii, idaho, iowa, louisiana, montana, nevada and washington state.

There is a good opportunity for cryptocurrency based fantasy sports. The sector is so heavily regulated and restricted it prevents it from being effectively leveraged.
2042  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Lowering the electricity bill by mining cryptocurrency on: March 02, 2021, 04:52:41 PM
Quote


Wherever you are in the world, the chances are that a large portion of your utility bill is for heating. This was certainly the case for [Christian Haschek], who realized he can use a cryptocurrency mining rig to offset some of his heating costs.

[Christian]’s central ventilation and water heating is handled by a heat pump, which uses a lot of electricity, especially in the Austrian winter. When it draws in cool air, it first needs to heat it to the thermostat temperature before venting it to the house. Cryptocurrency mining rigs are also heavy electricity users, but they also produce a lot of heat, which can be used to preheat the air going to the heat pump. [Christian] had four older AMD R9 390 GPUs (equivalent to the Nvidia GeForce GTX 970) lying around, so he mounted them in a server case and piped the heat pump’s air intake through the case.

At the time he did the tests, earnings from mining were enough to cover half of his heating bill, even after paying for the mining rig’s electricity. That is not taking into account the electricity savings from the preheated air. He only shows the results of one evening, where it dropped his electricity usage from around 500Wh to below 250Wh. We would like to see the long-term results, and it would be an interesting challenge to build a model to calculate the true costs or savings, taking into account all the factors. For instance, it could be possible to save costs even if the mining rig itself is running at a slight loss.

Of course, this is not a new idea. A quick internet search yields several similar projects and even some commercial crypto mining space heaters. We do like the fact that [Christian] reused some hardware he already had and integrated it into his central heating rather than using it as a mobile unit.

https://hackaday.com/2021/03/01/lowering-the-electricity-bill-by-mining-cryptocurrency/



....



Here's an interesting angle to the bitcoin power consumption debate. Utilizing mining rigs to generate heat to offset winter warming costs.

To implement effectively requires DIY modification of ducting to mining rigs and may not be for everyone. On the surface it seems like something that could be effective to mitigate costs and electricity consumption of mining.

Cold regions like iceland and russia are investing heavily in data centers using their cold climates to cool servers naturally without additional cost. Perhaps there is an opportunity for smaller miners in cold regions to do something similar via leveraging useful heat produced by mining rigs?
2043  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is developed nations asking money from other nations? on: March 01, 2021, 04:34:42 PM
Quote
The US, the world's largest economy, owes India $216 billion in loan as the country's debt grows to a record $29 trillion, an American lawmaker has said, cautioning the leadership against galloping foreign debt, the largest of which comes from China and Japan.
source: google
It's not just China and Japan but also the developing countries like India. Now My question is : Do they understand the fact that these countries are suffering more than them and they might need it more ?


The united states bailout of troubled foreign nations.

Parallels the european unions endless bailout of greece. A hard bailout rather than steps taken towards addressing greece's insolvency and debt issues.

There's a question of whether scenarios like US and EU bailouts could constitute a destruction of wealth. Which in turn could negatively affect our collective standard of living.

I'll try to give an example. In The Dark Knight Returns. The joker played by Heath Ledger burns a big pile of money. This might be considered destruction of wealth and something that could kill jobs and businesses. Decreasing standard of living in Gotham City.

It is possible that enormous amounts of wealth swallowed up and lost in the bailout of greece and nations bailed out by the USA are similar to the joker burning piles of cash. Over the long term it could destroy our standard of living. We could all end up poorer with fewer options and opportunities in life as a result of it.
2044  Economy / Economics / Re: Tech companies no longer "friends" on: March 01, 2021, 04:18:25 PM
The "FAANG" (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) are now near a monopolistic position in their core areas and they are using it to make extra profits. But the are winds of war, e.g. Apple disallowing segmentation for Facebook and Google or charging in in-app purchases to third parties.



Events such as these have occurred for awhile now.

Quote
Microsoft quietly dumps Windows OpenGL support

Nov 29 1999

https://www.theregister.com/1999/11/29/ms_quietly_dumps_windows_opengl/

...

Quote
Apple Disables Flash for OS X Over Security Concerns

Sep 11th, 2013

https://www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/apple-disables-flash-for-os-x-over-security-concerns

...

A motive behind these aggressive measures may sometimes be identified.

Microsoft owns and runs Direct X which is a direct competitor to OpenGL. Which was their motive for dumping OpenGL support.

Apple owned internet video and audio codecs which were competitors to adobe flash. Which could explain their motivation for dumping flash support.

It may be too early to identify apple's motive for these moves. Perhaps in the days to come things will become clearer.


2045  Economy / Economics / Re: How do you trade? on: March 01, 2021, 04:07:20 PM
- Technical trading, using supports and technical charts.
- Sentiment trading, using greed and fear indicator.
- Not trading at all, just HODL.
- Intuitive trading.
- My own "system".



-Automated trading
-Algorithmic trading
-Arbitrage trading
-Big data statistical trading

I'm not certain what the current status of arbitrage trading is today. That was one of the best and most reliable methods of consistently generating profits years back.

Example of arbitrage is, if you can find an exchange where BTC is trading at say $60k and another exchange where its trading at $45k. Buy bitcoin at $45k. Move BTC to the other exchange sell at $60k. And repeat the process.

Big data is another underestimated and underutilized area with profit potential. The basic theory behind it is identifying trends and patterns by analyzing massive amounts of trading data. For example some days of the year might be statistically better than other days for buying. While other days may be better for selling. There actually are traders who will crunch numbers and figure out which day of the week sunday to monday is best for buying, selling, etc. Who will trade off of those historical patterns.
2046  Economy / Economics / Re: Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI). on: March 01, 2021, 03:50:34 PM
Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI)

What will be your opinion about this combination?



Blockchain is ok for maintaining data integrity of electronic data. AI is good for applications with branch decision making capabilities. One area the two technologies could eventually overlap is in the realm of security.

A blockchain might be utilized to maintain the data integrity and codebase of an IT security product. While AI might be utilized in the decision making aspect of the security app. This isn't necessarily a likely scenario. Operating systems already include measures for maintaining runtime integrity. AI also isn't necessarily reliable or predictable enough to accurately utilize admin permissions atm. It is possible someday we may see the evolution if progress and advancement occurs.

Another possible scenario is AI codebase eventually becoming integrated and standardized in many traditional apps and assuming a natural role in systems which currently utilize blockchains.

Personally I doubt we'll see AI included in sectors where gains in the technology are negligible and may not provide value in terms of risk versus reward. There are thousands of different scenarios in many areas people wish AI to fill. Pattern recognition in AI may not scale sufficiently to accurately respond to all those thousands of different circumstances. Which could lead to them not being preferred.
2047  Economy / Economics / Re: How do you define rich? on: March 01, 2021, 03:31:13 PM
$1 million dollars isn't a lot of money in today's economy. I would say a person needs a minimum net worth of $50 to $100 million to be considered rich in 2021. Even those sums would pale in contrast to Elon Musk's net worth valued near $200 billion.

I'm not certain if buying expensive platinum jewelry, lambos, overrated brand name products like versace and overpriced mansions qualify as rich though. Living beyond ones means on the upper tier of the income bracket are some of the things people do that guarantee they might not be rich for long. Like Floyd Mayweather Jr. filing for bankruptcy 2 or 3 times after he defaulted on paying bills.
2048  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: whale tactics? on: March 01, 2021, 02:34:06 PM
If you brought low and it was now high, then you could start off selling high and keep selling lower to lower the price.  People like a bargain would keep buying as it went down.  As long as you don't go below your "low" then you know you could immediately buy it all back for a fraction of what you sold it for?  Is there a name for this tactic?



"Buying the dip" if the price rebounds.

Or "dead cat bounce" if the price doesn't rebound much at all.

The trouble with the strategy you're describing is once you've entered a sharply defined dump phase, prices usually don't rebound very far after confidence, faith and expectations are shattered by the sharp downtrend.

It normally takes time for market confidence to be restored after a strong dump. Then its much easier to generate a strong upward pump.
2049  Economy / Economics / Re: Why lack of Cryptoassets insurance companies..? on: February 26, 2021, 10:55:47 PM
The history of the Mt. Gox hack and many crypto institutions falling prey to phishing attacks could leave insurance agencies hesitant to offer coverage. There may not be as much of an industry standard of security measures implemented in crypto finance as there is with banks. There may also have been a few cases where sole holders of crypto private keys to millions in assets were accused of faking their own deaths. Which can only add to the controversy and risk factor of insuring crypto assets.

Account insurance like FDIC for banks is one tangible advantage traditional banks have over cryptocurrencies. One advantage they may be hesitant to lose. There could be political and regulatory pressure imposed against crypto assets being insured for these reasons.

Crypto exchanges, ETFs and brokers not having to pay monthly premiums to insurance companies could also be an advantage in terms of it reducing their overhead. Perhaps this is a gamble some would prefer to take.

I don't remember exchanges like Mt Gox being sued for lack of security measures. Lack of lawsuits and accountability could reduce the pressure on exchanges and holders of crypto assets to provide some form of insurance.
2050  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is only high demand causing the long transaction time? on: February 26, 2021, 12:04:51 AM
Is only high demand causing the long transaction time or the high price of a bitcoin or both? And would adding more miners (supply) increase or decrease the transaction time? Shocked


I think bitcoin's theoretical on chain limits max out around 5 transactions per second. Increasing or decreasing total number of miners and hash rates does not affect this. A higher hash rate (total number of miners) makes it harder to execute 51% attacks (double spend), it doesn't increase or decrease transaction time.

Lightning network and off chain layers can execute around 7,000 BTC transactions per second. Which is where most are placing their hope for bitcoin scaling.

Longer than normal transaction times on chain can have various causes. In past years blocks were filled to a fraction of capacity, which may have hindered transactions. On chain transactions can also be DDOS'ed to a degree by spamming a large number of tiny micro transactions. It is also possible that legitimate network traffic can increase which both increases transaction times and fees.
2051  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Federal Reserve Bank Of Boston statement! on: February 25, 2021, 11:55:05 PM
"I would suspect, down the road, that a number of central banks will have digital currency," he said. "When there is a digital currency available, other than the underground economy, it’s not clear why people would use bitcoin."


That remark is a bet on the moral majority being too complacent and demoralized to examine and explore cryptocurrencies for themselves.

Exploiting the publics collective lack of information and education is an effective strategy in this day and age.

Some say the key to crypto mass adoption is expanding bitcoin's utility to make it viable for coffee payments.

But the answer we may be looking for is people being more curious and open to new things and new ideas.

Being willing to explore and try new things like crypto so as not being reliant on complete strangers to educate us on things.
2052  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin needs more women. on: February 25, 2021, 11:44:03 PM
I see women on pornhub, onlyfans and social media who have branched out into buying, holding and even trading BTC and cryptocurrencies.

The gamestop and dogecoin frenzy has taken hold of some who are actively trading despite having zero experience.

There are and perhaps always have been many women who were active in crypto. What separates them from men is they tend to be far less vocal and public about it.
2053  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Rise of Bitcoin, Fall of Dollar on: February 25, 2021, 11:37:00 PM
is Bitcoin rising in value, or is it the dollar falling in value....
or are the two going both ways??



The weakening dollar isn't priced into the value of stock markets assets or crypto.

Normally it would be priced into the value of gold and inflation protected assets. As some have said the value of silver today is lower than its value in the 1980s. Which appears to imply the weakening dollar isn't yet priced into precious metals the way that it perhaps should.

I think most assume the stock holdings of Warren Buffett and assorted whales would somehow be protected from inflation in the event of the US dollar failing. With the worse case scenario covered -- there isn't much motivation to price the strength of the dollar into assets, which are assumed to be protected.

The same observation may be applied to BTC and cryptocurrencies on some level.
2054  Economy / Economics / Re: Facebook agrees to makes payments to Australia on: February 25, 2021, 11:26:50 PM
Facebook has to pay a tax for using news from Australian media.



Does australia pay the US a tax for using news from america?

Higher taxes on news media translates to more paywalls and lower accessability for articles, information and current events.

This isn't necessarily 100% negative. It could pave the way to a shift towards independent news media. A greater preference towards anonymous bloggers and unaffiliated freelancers as legitimate sources of information.

As opposed to the current centralized & monolithic structure where a tiny percentage of big corporations and wealthy billionaires own 99% of the news media published.
2055  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why Bitcoin price is so volatile? What are the major factors that drive it? on: February 25, 2021, 11:16:19 PM
Market trading of assets are war zones. There is natural competition coupled with greed, politics and other variables.

Observed low volatility trading doesn't imply competition, greed, politics and similar factors were removed from markets. But rather that traded assets tend to reach a point of equilibrium where those factors relatively cancel each other out to produce low volatility environments.

Concepts like stability, balance and low risk are correlated with low profit potential. While instability, imbalance and high risk are correlated with a high profit potential.

In bitcoin's case it is one of few inflation protected assets, trading in an environment which could be prone towards high inflation concerns. It is also deflationary which in ways is unprecedended. It is also controversial in ways with some claiming its good for society, and others claiming its the opposite. Bitcoin is far from reaching a point of equilibrium or consensus value and so it will be traded in ways which translate to volatility.
2056  Economy / Economics / Re: You want to make money with Bitcoin ? Here is a Tip ...Psy... on: February 25, 2021, 11:03:25 PM
After years of working with crypto i kind of figure it out how it moves ....

Burn your math / investing / finance and  economics books if you want to invest in crypto

Crypto value and volatility  is based on human psychology ...

If you understand human psychology / sociology etc you will become very very rich...

Crypto is based on trust ... Sure there are pump and dumps / scams etc ... But at the end crypto is based on trust.

So when the price goes up people trust it more,when the price goes down they trust it less.

Crypto is irational /emotional like humans .It's a indicator of or mood.

That's all to it ...the rest is just Fugazzi,





Every market price movement has a tangible and rational explanation. Price trends and market shifts are never randomized or unexplainable.

When prices trend up, it means there is significantly more purchasing volume in contrast to selling volume. When prices decline, the opposite is true.

Sharp movements upward mean whales are buying in high volume with big money. Sharp movements downward mean whales are selling in high volume with big money.

Everything can be explained by buying or selling. The only real question is motive. Which can be explained by experience and observation of market trends correlated with knowing and learning the history of markets.
2057  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Roast this Masterplan. on: February 24, 2021, 05:51:40 PM
As far as I know, this is the safest and most reliable way to build one's wealth while also having passive income.


Sounds like a good plan to me.  Smiley The most important thing is playing to your interests and strengths.

If you want negative commentary:

Real estate was considered a solid investment pre 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Back when most could not remember a time when real estate had depreciated in value & thought it was impossible for such a thing to occur. Rent and real estate prices are declining in US regions like california and new york which are hemorrhaging residents due to high taxes, high regulation and similar factors. While real estate and rent could be increasing in states like florida and texas which may be experiencing an influx of new residents drawn by low regulation and low taxation.

The big question with real estate is whether we'll soon experience a fiat devaluation / hyperinflation event. If so when. And how long such an event might last. It could be worthwhile to keyword search "best performing assets during a recession". If indeed this pandemic could send us spiraling into a recession/depression.

In terms of generating passive income. There are many podcasts and youtube channels devoted to side hustles and passive revenue. There are small business owners who don't mind disclosing vital information on their ATM side hustle, in terms of how much revenue it generates, what the main difficulties are, and so on. Whatever your interests or mind there are related methods of generating passive income.

I have seen 3 foot tall fruit trees selling for $100 across the internet. Avocados, mangos, lychee, rambutan, etc. Like bitcoin, fruit trees and plants tend to appreciate in value over time. They might be considered a passive form of income requiring mostly sunshine and rain. Both of which fall naturally from the sky. There are avocado pits I threw into a compost heap last year that sprouted and are growing into 2 foot trees this year. I could never get $100 for something that grows that easily and plentiful here. But I would guess there are people growing avocado pits they got for free in $5 of soil. They turn around and sell for $50 to $100. That seems like a decent return on investment if I might say so.

There are many opportunities everywhere. I literally just saw one browsing amazon of all places.

Good luck! Hope you succeed!  
2058  Economy / Economics / Re: Institutional investors are buying Bitcoin's future... How do we stop this? on: February 24, 2021, 04:47:53 PM
What happens if transactions on-chain are replaced with off-chain transactions in ledgers? It reduces the available supply of coins

Off chain transactions and hoarding could inflate the supply of coins.

ETFs and exchanges could utilize a fractional reserve approach. In terms of them issuing ownership for a higher number of crypto assets than they hold.

Tether's approach to reserves is one we may be wise to demand from off chain ledgers.

How can we stop that from happening? ...... Let's discuss, because this will be interesting to see how we will be countering this unintended attack.  Wink

It can't be prevented.

The only answer is to continue to research, learn, build, invent, innovate.

In the belief new inventions and innovations will continue to open doors. Present new options and opportunities to society. Which will elevate standard of living and pave the way to brighter tomorrows.
2059  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When is the right time to gamble on football. on: February 24, 2021, 03:52:41 PM
There are times when not to bet and there are times to bet, in my opinion, betting should be for fun, even if you analyse the winner rightly but anything can go wrong. There is one thing I know about football betting which makes me like it, it is analysable but does not yet guarantee winning. Let us look at this analyses.

1. If a club is strong, likely the match will be won by them
2.  Checking their last five matches, if solid, likely they will win
3. Checking the whole history of the season to know if the club is also strong in the season
4. Also check the history head to head of the clubs playing, there are some small clubs that do win or draw with big clubs at some particular period.
5. Checking the history of over and under 2.5 scores and if both teams do score.
6. Checking if the strong players are not excluded in a match to start
7. Also following your instincts



  • Games in the post season trend towards being more tactical and strategic leading to a higher incidence of total score under being probable
  • Arenas usually range from sea level to higher altitudes which can have tangible affects on endurance and cardio.
  • Some teams perform better playing at home, or on the road, others have a nearer to even distribution
  • Historical team rivalries can significantly increase the motivation factor on the field
  • The number of spectators and television viewers watching a game, can have an impact on how athletes perform
  • Start time of games favor some athletes and teams, with the inverse opposite also being true
2060  Economy / Economics / Doom and gloom: Michael Burry Warns Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming on: February 22, 2021, 11:52:04 PM
Quote
One week ago, Bank of America hinted at the unthinkable: the tsunami of monetary and fiscal stimulus, coupled with the upcoming surge in monetary velocity as the world's economy emerges from lockdowns, would lead to unprecedented economic overheating... or rather precedented as BofA's CIO Michael Hartnett reflected back on the post-WW1 Germany which he said was the "most epic, extreme analog of surging velocity and inflation following end of war psychology, pent-up savings, lost confidence in currency & authorities" and specifically the Reichsbank’s monetization of debt, and extrapolated that this is similar to what is going on now.



There is, of course, another name for that period: Weimar Germany, and because we all know what happened then, it is understandable why BofA does not want to mention that particular name.

Of course, others have been less shy - in 1974, Jens Parsson wrote a fascinating, in-depth historical analysis of the hyperinflationary collapse of Weimar Germany under the original money printer, Rudy von Havenstein, "Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations" one which we periodically remind readers is absolutely critical reading in preparation for what comes next.

Then overnight none other than the Big Short, Michael Burry, who has been rather busy making waves within the financial community with his hot takes (most recently, his slam of Robinhood and his bullish view on Uranium), picked up on the theme of Weimar Germany and specifically its hyperinflation, as the blueprint for what comes next in a lengthy tweetstorm cribbing generously from Parsson's seminal work. And while the details are familiar to most monetary historians, the fact is that now none other than the man who was made famous in the Big Short is calling for Weimar-style hyperinflation in the US. Below is an easily digestible repost of Burry's lengthy Saturday tweetstorm, which shows just how similar our world is to that prevalent in the years just before Weimar Germany saw the most explosive hyperinflation in history.

Quote
The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket. #ParadigmShift

 "The life of the inflation in its ripening stage was a paradox which had its own unmistakable characteristics. One was the great wealth, at least of those favored by the boom..Many great fortunes sprang up overnight...The cities, had an aimless and wanton youth"

"Prices in Germany were steady, and both business and the stock market were booming. The exchange rate of the mark against the dollar and other currencies actually rose for a time, and the mark was momentarily the strongest currency in the world" on inflation's eve.

"Side by side with the wealth were the pockets of poverty. Greater numbers of people remained on the outside of the easy money, looking in but not able to enter. The crime rate soared."

"Accounts of the time tell of a progressive demoralization which crept over the common people, compounded of their weariness with the breakneck pace, to no visible purpose, and their fears from watching their own precarious positions slip while others grew so conspicuously rich."

"Almost any kind of business could make money. Business failures and bankruptcies became few. The boom suspended the normal processes of natural selection by which the nonessential and ineffective otherwise would have been culled out."

"Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market."

"The volumes of turnover in securities on the Berlin Bourse became so high that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork...and the Bourse was obliged to close several days a week to work off the backlog" #robinhooddown

"all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 were not worth enough, by November of 1923, to buy a single  newspaper or a tram ticket. That was the spectacular part of the collapse, but most of the real loss in money wealth had been suffered much earlier."

 "Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow. Germany's #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse."

His punchline: the above was "written in 1974 re: 1914-1923" and then makes the ominous extrapolation that "2010-2021: Gestation" adding that "when dollars might as well be falling from the sky...management teams get creative and ultimately take more risk.. paying out debt-financed dividends to investors or investing in risky growth opportunities has beaten a frugal mentality hands down."



We are there now. The only question is when do we enter the exponential currency collapse phase.

...

Update (1815 ET): one day after the Weimar tweetstorm below, and shortly after our article came out, Burry tweeted the following:

People say I didn't warn last time. I did, but no one listened. So I warn this time. And still, no one listens. But I will have proof I warned.

Indeed he will.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-warns-weimar-hyperinflation-coming


....


Analysts and experts have voiced fiat devaluation / hyperinflation concerns for many years. Many over the last 50 years urged decreased state spending. Endorsing better budgeting and the introduction of incentives for government programs to become more efficient and cost effective. Economists like Milton Friedman decried increasingly taxing work, while subsidizing non work, as unsustainable. While Voltaire's famous quotation about fiat money inevitably returning to its intrinsic value of zero was rephrased multiple times by internet influencers wanting to claim the quote for their own.

Countless names said our system was unsustainable, lacking in legitimate efforts to stabilize or maintain viability.

Are the criticis finally right? Or will life continue onwards without noticeable or relevent changes.
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