should have made this a poll
Good idea  Have added a poll now. Although my initial post nails my colors to the mast. |
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Heres a 3 month chart plotted on log scale.  The charge towards $50 caused the price to bust out the top of the channel but the resistance we’ve encountered there since then has pushed us back down back into the channel again. The very bottom of the channel has been tested twice with brief spikes down which rebounded very strongly and very bullishly. I feel that this resistance near $50 will hold perhaps as long as to the end of March but ultimately be breached and much higher prices are on the way. During the rest of this month, the price may fall down near the bottom of the channel again, currently near $40 but the relentless upwards pressure will soon have us above $50 anyway. |
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Nice prediction. I agree with the idea that the rally will continue past $50 with a breakout in the near future (as I've talked about in my blog) however I think the line will become steeper and rise quicker after $50 than it has in the rally so far.
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Yes it is possible the rally is over because we are near the top of a long term rising channel. However I personnally think the rally is not over yet, there could be a breakout past $50 in the near future and then much higher prices to come. From my blog  I think we'll get t third attempt to breakout, which if it fails will rebound back strongly yet again, we'll breakthrough at some point in the near future. |
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I don't trust my bitcoins with any third party, learned my lesson with bitcoinica.
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I think we are still sitting in a long term rising channel (have disscussed this a few times in detail in my blog) and at the moment not yet in bubble territory although yes near the top of the channel we are in. I think there is a chance price could flatten off at this level for a while or drop slightly while consolidating recent gains but I don't see a serious crash or even just a crash from this level. If we break through $50 we may start heading up towards $200 for a bitcoin with little further resistance. If that happens then I will start thinking we are heading into another bubble like 2011. I still think seeing a price of $500 is not out of the question in 2013 crazy though that sounds.
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My view is that the bitcoin market is one of the only markets in the world where a fair price is achieved by honest price discovery between buyers and sellers. The market is on a bull run which extends back before the bubble in 2011 and I see no reason for that to end. It is increasing on a log basis. It won't be long before people happily pay more than $100 for a bitcoin.
I'm hoping for a breakout past the $50 mark and think there is a great chance we'll achieve it. We're not in a bubble yet.
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I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.
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Nice analysis I'm thinking a large correction about $50 but not so sure that will be the end of the bubble. Might be only the beginning ;-) |
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On the surface it looks like a bubble, but I don't think it is yet, theres a lot of room for higher prices, we're still in the same channel we were in before the 2011 bubble even started!
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From my blog, bitcoins plotted on a log scale  If the price was to take off as it did in 2011 and spike up to the same trendline it peaked at then, what was $32 back then is more than $500 today. Quite a thought. I’m thinking it might be time to load up on bitcoins while they’re cheap! |
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It's all a bit too closed for my liking. The founders have donated 80 billion to OpenCoin - already there's alarm bells - they're keeping back a 20% stake of an entire economy for themselves?!
And then OpenCoin doesn't have a simple or fair way to share out the XRP, nor have they even pledged to distribute all of it, and yet there are even a couple of active gateways in place already? How come I, for example, can't just go ahead and open mine? It all seems stacked against the eventual users, which is a real shame as the overall concept is nothing short of brilliant.
Like with the founders of certain Bitcoin clones, I think their greed may be their undoing.
+1 I read about ripple on wikipedia earlier and had alarm bells ringing when I saw this. Note that the Ripple protocol itself wouldn't preclude a hierarchical payment structure evolving, it just allows for the possibility of other structures. If it doesn't preclude a hierarchical structure then one will develop as surely as night follows day |
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Counting down the minutes until i'm not a newbie anymore ....
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I don't know much about it but just read about it on Wikipedia. Alarm bells were ringing when I saw this. Note that the Ripple protocol itself wouldn't preclude a hierarchical payment structure evolving, it just allows for the possibility of other structures. If it allows a hierachical payment structure that means it allows being controlled by a centralised power which then gets us back to square one. I think we can expect a lot of competitors to bitcoin to spring up with allowing hierarchical structures as part of their hidden agenda. I'll stick with bitcoins edit: so to answer the original question I say its a rival. |
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Well it came back online and I've withdrawn all my funds from Intersango, I don't trust them, especially after the bitcoinica fiasco in which my bitcoins were stolen.
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Oh shit you got to be kidding! ! ! I lost bitcoins in bitcoinica getting an awful feeling of deja vu here  |
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I wouldn't hold those bitcoins on the exchange. I stupidly trusted an exchange called bitcoinica when they started offering interest on bitcoins and within about 1 week had lost them all. Take heed of that lesson and don't make that mistake that I did. I'm still kicking myself, but also still a big believer in bitcoins, I've slowly been buying back to replace the ones I lost, I think you are making a very good decision.
Not saying this is the best way but if it was me I'd use the normal bitcoin client and send the bitcoins I purchased to my own address on the client running on my hard drive. (Note it takes a long long time to catch up with the bitcoin network, I left my computer running for about 3 days and nights until it was synchronised). I'd start with a small transfer of 1 bitcoin or something like that from the exchange to the client running on my own computer. Assuming I received that correctly I would proceed to transfer the rest.
I would then encrypt my wallet file, back it up into at least a couple of different places which are not normally connected to the internet, maybe a spare harddrive and a memory stick and then I'd delete the wallet file from my normal computer. This way I end up with my wallet.dat file safely secured and not accessible by the internet.
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I had problems similar to that described (using bitcoin-qt in linux) the client said it was catching up, but after hours nothing had updated at all, not a single block.
What I had to do to fix it was, keeping a copy of the Wallet.dat file first (this is most important, don't want to lose that). I renamed (or delete) the old bitcoin folder. I also upgraded the client to the latest version and ran it. I noticed that a new bitcoin folder was created, stopped the client, and replaced the new wallet.dat file with the one I had copied earlier. I then restarted the client. There were messages saying transactions had not been verified etc, however I could see that there was movment and it was processing blocks.
I left it running for about 3 days and nights before it was up-to-date but eventually it did catch up. I'll stick with this client just now because i think people running that helps the health of the network, however it does seem that eventually everyone will have to move to thin clients as the blockchain just becomes too big..
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Hi, I've created this new profile in order to tie into my new bitcoins blog http://afbitcoins.wordpress.comI'm mad about bitcoins, long term bullish, aswell as gold and silver which may preserve value as currencies around the world continue to be debased. Bitcoins open a world of possibilities and hopefully will render central banks obsolete in my lifetime |
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