Bitcoin Primed



I've shared this idea on my blog and TradingView thought I might as well add it to the official bubble thread too.

I feel my bullish ideas provide a contrary opinion to the many bearish ideas expressed on Trading View currently.

In log price chart there is a well defined bull channel, shown in green which goes back to 2012 (and possibly earlier if MtGox data were available). Recent spike up to $500 ended exactly on midpoint of the uptrending channel (supporting the validity for the trendlines). Other evidence for these trendlines is provided by the upper trendline of the channel which supported bitcoin multiple times while it was in bubble territory before finally giving way as the price went on to reach its post bubble low.

The recent spike is reminicent of ‘mini’ bubble in bitcoin in 2012 before the huge bull moves began.

In the short term if horizontal resistance at $320 doesn’t hold then price should find solid support at around $270 ish which will be a great place to go long if it gets that low, with sell stop under the channel.

With bitcoin already very depressed after the collapse of the last bubble there is plenty of room on the upside. Bitcoin can get past previous all time highs while still in the channel, before even getting into crazy bubble territory.

For fun I’ve shown possible path price might take as the halving mania and price pump begins to take hold using some black arrows.

I predicted the top at $500 but then hodl'd instead of selling some bitcoin
 

should have carried through with my conviction

still i think in longer term hodling will work out pretty sweet

Thats my thoughts too

I think OP is referring to this.



If it plays out the target will be below $200 I think.
 

I don't see it happening myself

With the halving getting nearer going ballistic might be slightly better bet on this occasion

Not sure what you are looking at but the log price scale makes it easy to compare percentage gains just by comparing the size of the move. Its all relative but for bitcoin those are mini, they are smaller.

Well done Icebreaker ! Way to go buddy

(I'll just have to trust he said that as the original comment is on ignore)

haha i read about 2 pages before i realised it was from 2012, was confused about the prices being quoted have to admit.

 


I have also been thinking this last mini bubble is similar to ones in 2012

Dash looks like its breaking up out of that wedge I posted now btw. Might be a good time to buy.

Sounds like another masternode in the works

Dash on a 3day chart.



Trying to break up from the descending wedge. Descending wedge is usually considered bullish

No-one? lol plenty have been expecting it, in fact it was a bit overdue from my point of view. I think by no-one you mean, you didn't expect it.

Fasten your seatbelts its only beginning.

My call for resistance approaching was spot on!  

Now I'm guessing likely scenario is bitcoin might go into mini bearish phase but stay above the $320 level.
With halving coming ever closer, before long it will be back to insane bull mode though. Good chance to buy in might come up for those that missed the first leg.

I don't really have any specific predictions like that last one, but I see the most likely outcome, is that bitcoin goes bearish for a while in the short term (but stays above the $320 top of horizontal channel on my chart) and consolidates.

Less probablility a second wave of crazy bullishness takes price up into top of that big uptrending channel on an even bigger spike.

Either way on longer timescales I think bitcoin, with its halving coming up soon, is going to get crazy bullish again at some point.

Its a shame Dash isn't on the tradingview website. Would love to do better analysis of the Dash charts.
Cryptowat.ch is about the best I can find at the moment.

Its gone quiet around here normally i have to flip a few pages back to find my last comments, has everyone gone to the bitcoin section ?

tumbleweeds ...

I use log scale for bitcoin because it works for me, I don't really question the why of it. I've always assumed its because bitcoin is growing too quick for a linear scale to stay accurate for long, maybe its something else
As far as macd goes, I don't use it much, more often pay attention to rsi or momentum if I'm looking at other indicatorsto look for overbought/oversold or divergences. Mostly I get what I need to know just from the trendlines. Each to their own I guess

Yes price shown on a log scale.

And no I didn't add the line in after! lol

Personally I think TA works pretty well on bitcoin, of course nothing will let you know exactly what will happen except maybe a time machine. It is still only guessing but using data to improve your chances. In this case I guessed where spike might end because that was the next line of resistance I could see. I can use same chart to make guesses of what will hapen next, maybe I'll be wrong or maybe right who knows.

Bitcoin hit resistance exactly where I expected it 



Lets see if it can pick itself up for another shot getting through the middle of that channel.

Resistance coming up, will it spike here or push through to top half of that channel ?

To OP

There were also people saying this is the time to accumulate more bitcoins. Maybe you should have listened to more varied opinions. I'd say listen to others but you can only act on what your own instincts tell you. You didn't buy because you had fear that the price would go down, this is not because of others but your own fear.  The buck stops with you.

If you want my opinion bitcoin is still cheap but if you buy now you have to be willing to not panic if price then drops. After a steep rise like this a pullback wouldn't be a surprise.