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Bubble chart comparison does look very similar, except the bubble's rise was a little too quick and the capitulation not steep enough. Although the fit is not perfect I do believe we are in a kind os undervalued 'despair' phase/ returning to mean, corresponding to the idea in the OP
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Cup and Handle is a technical analysis made by William O'Neil but like every other technical analysis this can easily be defeated by any small fundamental analysis.
I belief OP understand this clearly.
Not sure its as easy as that, in a fundamental analysis you always be missing some of the pieces of the puzzle, maybe a critical piece. Eg I thought fundamentals for gold have been bullish since 2011 but turns out not so, I still believe fundamentals for gold are bullish and yet it falls further.. |
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We were promised the pattern shown by the red bit I added to your chart. It didn't happen. Why should we trust your promised pattern? Drawing a few lines on a chart isn't going to make it happen. If we go lower what's to stop another person drawing some more lines to prove that's the handle of a cup and it means moon? People can keep doing that until we reach the bottom of the cup.  I don't recall promising that  I think normally a handle takes a bit longer to complete like the arrows I've drawn, but I'm not promising it either. Point I'm trying to make is that once bitcoin gets above the upper trendline of the wedge on the handle its game on... maybe Disclaimer: blah blah blah your investment desicions are your own |
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Heres a cheeky little gold prediction for you. Gold may (soon) rally to the top of this channel at roughly $10000 per ounce   Think about it, in a world on the verge of currency crises and collapse is gold going to idly sit by and drop to $400. Gold is money. Bitcoin will do rather well too, potentially bigger gains (but there are more risks with bitcoin than gold) |
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It looks and is a cup and handle
I agree  |
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I spotted potential cup & handle pattern on daily chart:  Here are some criteria and notes taken from http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp- This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern.
- First, it's important that there is an upward trend before the formation of the cup and handle.<- check
- The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle <- check?.
- The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend, where the weaker investors leave the market and new buyers and resolute holders stay in the security <- fundamentally plausible
- a traditional cup-and-handle pattern should be between one-third and two-thirds the size of the previous upward movement <- check
- During this downward move, a descending trendline can be drawn, which forms the signal for the breakout. A move by the security above this descending trendline is a signal that the prior upward trend is set to begin <- let's see
How exactly is the red portion satisfied? "previous upward movement" meaning? previous upward movement = previous uptrend on molecular's chart; rise from ~ 165 to ~ 300, ie rise of $135 The cup caused a dip from ~ 300 to ~ 210, ie dip of $90 $90 is between 1/3 and 2/3 of $135 (Disclaimer: I am a not an expert at TA) Yes I spotted that one too it looks a possibility. I'm slightly perturbed by that flash crash in btc-e though |
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Looks good to me so far Afrikoin (from bullish point of view), I'm still enjoying the end of the bear trend. Although the price is taking a bit of a dip (maybe on the news grexit looks like isn't happening ?) but in any case after recent rises a correction was needed. The bears will have their day again though, just as night follows day Looks like a nice cup formed here, i wonder if a handle will appear ? I suspect bitcoin might be too bullish to bother with the handle but we'll see ..  |
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As pointed out earlier halving hasn't happened yet, additionally litecoin is most established crypto after bitcoin but without the blocksize debate dragging it down. Also Litecoin has started from such a hugely depressed price there is still a long long way to go for new all time highs. So there are still bullish arguments in play. But looking at chart it does look like that may have been the peak for this spike..
I made prediction of price drop based entirely on the chart, and to me that channel looks valid. It is a big ask to get above that level. But you never know it is possible.
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The euro will die!
On the contrary, the euro will rise after Greece's exit from the EU Maybe in the short term but if the euro is to continue long term it will be a much smaller zone, several other countries will ultimately exit too in the end. As it should. Unless those countries willing to lose all sovereignty |
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Lol Windows XP is one of the best versions of windows though. Time to move to Linux I'd say.
I'm confused how this is a sell off. Price is going up.
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In cold light of next day I don't know if now is good time to sell. Maybe I should buy? Lol. I don't know basically.
Could Litecoin get above the channel mentioned in my OP then find support above that for a second leg up ? When is the halving anyway?
edit: Just after I wrote that look at the chart and see 20% drop!
It's -45.94% now on finex. Thanks for the good call to dump. I was considering buying with my Bitcoin but decided it was too risky after looking at your charts. Losing half my money in the space of half an hour would have been a nightmare. Those who brought at the bottom made good, but those who brought at the top took a big haircut. Thanks spud. Sometimes its a bit scary making predictions like this in case I get it wrong. Glad it worked out this time. |
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Well Litecoin pierced the top of my channel now falling quite steep.  Did you take profits ? Anyway I don't know if this means bull run is over, but it 'might', doesn't look good at the moment.  |
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In cold light of next day I don't know if now is good time to sell. Maybe I should buy? Lol. I don't know basically.
Could Litecoin get above the channel mentioned in my OP then find support above that for a second leg up ? When is the halving anyway?
edit: Just after I wrote that look at the chart and see 20% drop!
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As we all know many of us are holding Litecoin wondering how high this spike will go. Moon ?  I don't hold any Litecoin myself so I mention this only out of passing interest but about now might be a good time to start thinking about taking profits. I'm not saying Litecoin can't or won't go significantly higher but for me we are in a danger zone. Reason being this log chart.  The flatish, slightly bearish channel I've added in looks like it might be valid, note price is rapidly closing in on top of that channel, might shoot past some way, but eventually price will crash. Don't be the bagholder. Disclaimer: I offer this only as opinion I won't take blame it it doesn't work out. (But might take some credit if it does though ) |
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Last week banks needed to open to serve thousands of pensioners who don't have debit cards and don't know how to use an ATM. How do you think people like this will go with concepts such as 'blockchain', 'mining', 'where does a bitcoin come from?'
The adoption of bitcoin will be a gradual process, just like any technology. The fact that Granny doesn't use ATMs or debit cards doesn't mean the country's not ready for ATMs or debit cards. Likewise for bitcoin: you'll have early adopters, mid adopters, late adopters, and never-adopters. It will be a parallel currency (not the ONLY currency) so it's OK that not everyone will use it. Yes, bitcoin should never aim to be a monopoly on money, it should be freely competing with other forms of money, in open fair and free way. Last thing we want is governments forcing us to use bitcoin, it would be an unmitigated disaster. People will resist going completely electronic especially if it is forced on them, including some bitcoin diehards like me. There will always be room for the oldest forms of money, such as physical silver coins which are extremely depressed in value right now but one day may also roam free to find fair value as money. |
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Adopting bitcoin is up to the people not the govt.
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Dear bears: You are alone. There is only darkness for you, and only death for your downtrend. This flag is just the begging. I will command a great and terrible uptrend. We will sail to a billion exchanges. We will sail until every short has been extinguished. You are strong, bear, but this uptrend is beyond strength. It is THE END and it has come for your downtrend.  Thanks Black Spidy a fitting epitaph for the END of the bear trend. |
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