Hahaha love that technical analysis  |
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Wow theres some serious amounts of bitcoins been lost. Put my 30btc in the shade a bit
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... but who am I fooling? I'm a bear now  I'm a bear too now |
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Bitcoins is a highly speculative bet in those terms, but the potential is staggering. Electronic money free from central control and low transactions fees, sent anonymously around the planet ignoring borders. Yes staggering. The genie is out the bottle, and growing by 1000's of % per year virtually. These bubbles are growing pains.
I agree on potential but that is not fundamentals to currency. This is called speculation and is high risk. Only people who are looking for quick profit or who are fools with their money would put a huge percentage of personal into something like that. Not everyone can afford to gamble with their life savings and investments. A good example I use because my family works there and has made millions is Exxon. They are super conservative yet over the long run always profit and are paying dividends. We are dependent on their product and there is super low risks. Apple has a P/E around 9 now like Exxon but, their products change fast and are a huge risk. One small mis-step and they are screwed. Exxon can dump oil out and act horrible to the environment and yet they still make money. They are one of the tightest managed companies on earth and the largest. Bitcoin is almost the opposite end of the spectrum. TL/DR - My original point is Bitcoin does lack fundamentals and with high risks expect big swings and price to drop. Well I'm agreeing with you basically. I wouldn't put my life savings into it myself. Too risky. But I do think its worth having a stake in it because of the staggering huge potential. Only invest what you can afford to lose. If you invest in a couple of bitcoins, which one day are worth 10's of thousands of dollars you had nothing to lose, and everything to gain. |
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I've been a purchaser of gold today in fact, hard to conceive it will not be a good investment long term. I'm sitting out the bitcoin market just now. I'll be a bitcoin buyer again when I feel the time is right, but expecting a few months of consolidation first.
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I got in early sold a little bit near the top which recouped the fiat I originally spent. Sold a little bit more recently after the crash.
In the end I havent made much fiat, but did accumulate some bitcoins. As bitcoins = money, yes i made money.
I could still sell the rest and make a fiat profit, but I prefer to hoard the bitcoins.
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Money should not be a "store of value", especially high risk internet money. You should have a guaranteed inflation of 3-5% a year so that you don't keep more than you are willing to spend in the short run. The inflation tax should go to a charity you select. ... Lrn2money. Money "SHOULD" be a store of value. How the heck else are you going to save? Didn't your mommy teach you when you were a teenager and you got your first checking account that you need at least 6 months of expenses saved in case of emergency/lost job/etc? That's just RESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR. What about retirement savings? How the heck am I going to save up many hundreds of thousands of $$ for retirement if the money I use is not a STORE OF VALUE? A statement like "money should not be a store of value" is absolutely retarded and completely ignorant. Furthermore, the "deflation = bad cuz people don't spend" is a neo-keynesian myth easily disproved by looking at the success of bitcoin businesses and businesses that accept bitcoin for goods/services. And the fact that gold and silver, both deflationary exchanges of value, were used as currency for thousands of years. Is Private Internet Access filing for bankruptcy because people 'aren't spending their deflationary coins?' Wipe Paul Krugman's semen off of your face before your next post, you sound like a bankster. I think it's gonna make it, after all. New and professionally run exchanges are in the works as we speak. MtGox is doing a lot of work, and will be better than ever in a few weeks. In a few months we could be approaching highs again. PROUDHON BEARISH! I can't tell whether he actually believes that, or if he's purposely acting as a contrarian indicator to annoy people who actually do believe in the success of bitcoin  BTW, y'all, go back to the 2011 crash and I guarantee you there are a million threads "bitcoin is done." Most of those idiots are probably gone now, and it's safe to ignore the new ones. Well said  |
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I'm afraid you overestimated me, i just picked a number out of thin air.  So is yours a real number? what does it mean? |
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I just cannot understand that. Fundamentals are stronger than ever and everyday new businesses accept Bitcoins.
The fundamentals maybe "stronger than ever" in your mind however, with the MtGox problems they are not in other people's minds. Also there are huge risks and unknowns with Bitcoin which a lot of investments do not have. Bitcoin does not have wide adoption either which for most investors is "fundamental". The last few weeks have proven the currency does not have a stable price which is "fundamental" for investors in currency. If it was being used and worth more it would not be going down in value. Stop deluding yourselves. People buying Bitcoin are doing so based on speculation. My first thread here asked for how on earth could Bitcoin being going up in price when there are no fundamentals. Four pages later no one could offer any and all I've seen so far is speculation on top of more speculation and people pretending those things are real and not possibilities. I'm talking wide spread adoption and usage. Bitcoin ATM's are supposed to happen however there isn't one working yet nor has it gotten through government regulation. Western Union was looking at Bitcoin as it was going up in value. I haven't heard from them since the crash. Just more speculation. I last read Silk Road is doing like 22 million per year which is nothing. Marjiuana alone was a 6 billion dollar industry in the USA before the states legalized it somewhat. Maybe Silk Road is doing more than that this year? Bitcoins is a highly speculative bet in those terms, but the potential is staggering. Electronic money free from central control and low transactions fees, sent anonymously around the planet ignoring borders. Yes staggering. The genie is out the bottle, and growing by 1000's of % per year virtually. These bubbles are growing pains. |
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I've done some more analysis and think its actually more like
-4.333
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The prices are fake, we must to aknowledge it.
The real price of a BTC will be taken when people really use it for transaction; buying real things.
Now, with all these "market" out there, there is only a game of speculators who play to raise and fall to get profit. Those markets are based on nothing more than offer and demand. Those market ignore dollar inflation, dollar devaluation, bitcoin deflation, difficulty, etc; that is the reason why it's volatile; the price seems to be the will of some speculators playing stock games.
Even, reading the BTCe chat, you know that the value of BTC is based on the health of MtGox servers: If they lag, BTC go down. Ridiculous. If a guy with 1 million dollars buy all the sell orders from 50 to 200, then the BTC will cost 200 magically. And then he can sell all for 199. What do you think? Is not it nonsensical?
This is only because the market is still small. As it gets bigger and bigger this kind of manipulation will become harder and harder to achieve. |
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I hope we NEVER see a bubble again. But we probably will, just with a new batch of idiots. I'd much prefer slow to moderate growth that is coupled with adoption and innovation.
That can't be, efficient market and all. If bitcoin looks like it's on track for major adoption, fools will throw their money at it treating it as a "store of value". Therefore causing volatility, therefore breaking bitcoin as a currency. It's a self defeating prophecy caused by the hard limit on supply. Money should not be a "store of value", especially high risk internet money. You should have a guaranteed inflation of 3-5% a year so that you don't keep more than you are willing to spend in the short run. The inflation tax should go to a charity you select. Well you are entitled to your opinion but I think you sound like a banker. During the gold standard money was a reliable store of value and inflation virtually non-existant. This happy state of affairs lasted for centuries, benefiting ordinary people but not the elite class. Look at the divergence between the wealthy and the rest today, its at levels never seen before. In free market competition good money drives out bad. Bitcoins will see off the paper ponzi and a good job too. |
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Its all part of the psychology of bubbles. After the mania comes the fall and a long consolidation. People will sell, but a platform will be established for the next big move up. Just need patience now.
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I think people like SlipperySlope and bitrider are on the right lines.
Wether we like it or not the mania has ended (for now at least) and we are now in a new phase. From what I've seen speculative bubbles seem to follow a very classical pattern, there is the initial phase which is the bull run which grows exponentially over some time, at some point it can't be sustained any longer as the price increase becomes almost vertical.
In this case MtGox infrastructure causing lags was the cause of the fracture, but if it hadn't been that something else would have done it soon enough as the upwards pressure becomes unsustainable.
Next the price plummets as panic sets in and everyone rushes to sell all at once. This creates a huge spike down on the price chart. In the aftermarth of the crash, the price rebounds but not as high as the original peak (dead cat bounce). Then there is a long slow decline as enthusiasm fades more and more.
All of this has been repeated again and again in different markets, from tulip bulbs to gold and silver in 1980 to bitcoins in 2011, and I don't think this will be much different.
I have an entry in my blog where i also talk a bit more about this, 'Bull market tops'.
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I started off drawing my lines on linear scales but found they were only accurate for short time periods. Log scale works because the price rise is exponential.
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Way to draw support lines exactly as they fit you.
Thats where they fit the data. I drew that line in the same place all through February. Check my blog if you don't believe me  |
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Updated chart  Down to the last trend line. Although we've overshot below that one too, looks like price is trying to find support there, will it succeed? |
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Doesn't look quite so bad on a 3 month log chart  The red arrow indicates the peak of course, but also the moment we hit the top of the steep channel we were in. We're now at the bottom of the least steep trendchannel, correct? Let's hope for a strong rebound I can't get the chart site working, bad gateway, timeouts etc, so hard to know what the price is just now, Clark Moody site says it dipped down to $55, but now is around $70? If thats the case looks like we fell below the bottom of the least steep trend line. Which isn't good from the bullish perspective. But factoring in that MtGox has totally screwed up by closing 'to let the market cool down' and the height from which we fell might allow a little overshoot. If we can get back into the first exponential channel I'd be thinking the bull run might yet be intact. |
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World controller types who hold power by control of central banking and fiat money would almost certainly want bitcoin to decline or disappear entirely. What if someone, I don’t know, like George Soros, or perhaps someone acting on behalf of central banks, decided to pump up bitcoins deliberately by overbuying it, only to massively sell into the first opportune sign of weakness. It wouldn’t be that hard to do. They might be able to successfully paint a fake top into the market. Result, killed enthusiasm, and a promising bull run, nipped in the bud. Could this be a fake top in bitcoins? I very much doubt they can yet manipulate the bitcoin market with the same precision that they can do the gold and silver markets, because they don’t have futures contracts, ETFs and naked shorting to fine tune the downside. However those world controllers still have manipulation of perception via the media, and limitless fiat. In a small market like bitcoin, you’d hardly need that much fiat to move it up like that. Easy in fact if one had the sort of funds of someone like George Sorros or someone acting on behalf of a central bank. http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/fake-top/Nope. This really was a top. And assuming bitcoin can recover from this catastrophe, I don't think the price will come close to challenging the new high for around a half decade or more. We dun goofed. Hi Proudhon, your reputation has preceded you, I'm already well aware of your bearish stance, thanks for the comment |
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World controller types who hold power by control of central banking and fiat money would almost certainly want bitcoin to decline or disappear entirely. What if someone, I don’t know, like George Soros, or perhaps someone acting on behalf of central banks, decided to pump up bitcoins deliberately by overbuying it, only to massively sell into the first opportune sign of weakness. It wouldn’t be that hard to do. They might be able to successfully paint a fake top into the market. Result, killed enthusiasm, and a promising bull run, nipped in the bud. Could this be a fake top in bitcoins? I very much doubt they can yet manipulate the bitcoin market with the same precision that they can do the gold and silver markets, because they don’t have futures contracts, ETFs and naked shorting to fine tune the downside. However those world controllers still have manipulation of perception via the media, and limitless fiat. In a small market like bitcoin, you’d hardly need that much fiat to move it up like that. Easy in fact if one had the sort of funds of someone like George Sorros or someone acting on behalf of a central bank. http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/04/12/fake-top/ |
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