These people come up with arcane theories based on no real examination of the market but completely on the shape of the charts make me laugh. No clue was had that day.
There's two things:
1. Supply.
2. Demand.
Actually pretty solid reason behind the cup and handle: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandle.aspThat's hardly a solid reason being mention in that link, it's not even a reason. It's just a description what supposedly happens in the pattern. Most technical "analysis" is more like astrology, pseudo-science trying to divine occult patterns from observations without proper application of scientific methods. There is a point to be made for round number and previous ATH/ATL values acting as a psychological barrier (support/resistance), but most of the other line-on-chart-drawing seems to be rather silly to me. Why trash Technical Analysis in the Speculation forums ? Do you prefer we just pull numbers out our asses ? Why are you here ? |
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For fun, heres a giant one in silver spanning decades  |
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Of course silver won't outperform bitcoins, not even close, but a trojan can't steal your silver bars.  I'm pretty well hedged in both  |
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This is my take:
Silk road gets taken down.
People wait a week to see if Bitcoin can exist without it.
Bitcoin does fine.
Oh shit, legit currency guys! BUY BUY BUY!
LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOL! Silk road was a huge part of it but if you really want to know why bitcoin is doing fine, its because mt gox bitstamp btc-e dont want it to fail. They can do whatever they want with the price. there are no rules or regulations that they have to abide by. They are smart business owners. Why would you let the golden goose die? As long as there are more suckers out there that jump on board it will keep going. Those exchanges make profit when people buy or sell. Whats in it for them for higher prices? The market price is dictated by what people will pay versus how much the sellers want Regulations do nothing except distort fair market valuations. |
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Silver is a great investment but not sure it will outperform bitcoins. I think 1 bitcoin might get you an ounce of gold within the next year
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And no, looking in log-scale is not "cheating". Going from 1 to 1.8 is just as spectacular as going from 100 to 180.
This is false. Think about it in terms of "people involved" and "money volume necessary to cause a price level increase", and you will see $100 to $180 is much different than $1 to $1.8 Think about it in terms of exponential growth, as in exponential amount of an "people involved" each bringing along individual "money volume necessary to cause a price level increase", and you will see $100 to $180 is actually pretty similar to $1 to $1.8 Exponential increases in people and money flow are not easy things to accomplish. Such occurences are the exception, not the rule (don't fall prey to survivor bias). That isn't to say it won't happen, just acknowledging the facts. The entire monetary system depends on constant exponential growth, because the money to pay interest on debts doesn't exist until new debts are created. This sort of thing was a useful system during past eras when humans were expanding and colonising new continents. Now that we are faced with exponential requirements for our economy and simultaneously hitting finite limits of resources and commodities we are stuck with a system which no longer works to our benefit and is beginning to fail. Bitcoin is a much better model for the worlds finances going forwards. Not too nervous yet, but can feel a bit of greed kicking in, fear will be the crash after the next euphoric bubble, which might be just getting going now ? |
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Thanks for the Chinese perspective.
Paraphrasing but there was one part I found interesting.. American companies place people in government whereas in china the government places people in companies.
Merger of state and private sector in both cases, or in other words Fascism.
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ahem! Quite correct. thanks. $100 a day moves in triple digits would be something!  |
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Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in.
Of course you are correct. Everyone here is bubble this and bubble that... this means there will be lots of bids chasing the asks for long time to come. All those countless "short term bears" must surrender before the short term bullish trend (weekly chart) reverses. It is never a bubble, not even close, when everyone thinks that something is a bubble. If you want bubble go look at the non-logarithmic chart of the difficulty or chart of mobile phone and social account adoption over last few years. BTW what will break bear's spines is 100$+ a day price increases. Once we see that, then perhaps it may make sense to stop buying for a while. Yes amazing to think of it, but if bitcoins go to triple digits then 100$ a day moves might be quite normal by then. |
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When I see those thread then I know it's a good timing to short.  Yep short it. I dare ya! Hmm... Bitcoin Parabola Not Enough? Here Comes Bitcoin Opportunity Fund... This Time With Leverage!Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2013 10:12 -0400 With Bitcoins changing digital hands for over $260 this morning, having doubled in a week (and exponentially risen in weeks), many have asked how to 'trade' or 'short' this virtual currency. Well, perhaps the answer is here. As TechCrunch notes, Coinsetter - a NY-based startup looking to launch a trading platform for Bitcoin has raised $500,000 in seed capital. The platform will allow leverage (via margin) and the ability to short the market. We can only imagine the hour-by-hour margin changes. Furthermore, Coinsetter intends to offer accredited investors (because wealth equals smarts, right) the ability to earn interest on Bitcoins. To put his money where his mouth is, Lukasiewicz, a former JPM investment banker, has said that he will "put up at least $50,000 of his own money towards the platform's initial margin reserves." Forget NFLX; Ignore FNM; day-trading Bitcoin with leverage is the new normal. What's the opposite of catching a falling knife? ... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/bitcoin-parabola-not-enough-here-comes-bitcoin-opportunity-fund-time-leverage Get an uneasy feeling from Coinsetter sounds like bitcoinica and we know how that ended up. |
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Lots of talk of a bubble in the forums today, in my view this isn't anywhere near a bubble yet. Although the recent price rises are very impressive. I think the spike up is caused by a sort of slingshot effect after the bust of silk road. There was a lot of bullish momentum prior to silk road, the panic selling of silk road cleared the way for the stronger hands to swoop in.
I'm thinking there will be a correction soon, possibly back into the channel I've been looking at here.
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I am sat biting my nails wondering whether to sell now and wipe out some £££ debt or whether to hold and see if it continues to rise. I remember being in this same situation earlier in the year with the last big rise and it burst just as I was about to pull the trigger...
Dude, think seriously. With debd you're on minus. It's better a thousand times to be at 0 and have nothing. Debt the chain every man should struggle to break. Then you can go back gathering, hunting or whatever our ancestors did. I hate debt. As Robert Kiosaki says, theres good debt and bad debt. If you go into debt to buy a new car or tv or something that is bad debt. If you go into debt to buy investments which yield more than the interest on the debt, that is good debt |
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We're due a correction as bitcoins is looking a little overbought in the short term. But this is no were near a bubble yet. Does feel like it has potential to go back into bubble territory though..
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This is my arbitrary line. Its more of a fairly conservative baseline support level. I expect there will continue to be bumps along the way, but I dont think the price will ever dip much below this line failing a black swan event. $1000 BTC July '15 seems reasonable.  +1 This is the arbitrary line I like to use when looking at long term trends too. ~sometimes I draw it with windows paint I agree with the long term trend (as highlighted in this thread), bitcoins has a long way to go yet with lots of euphoric peaks and panic crashes along the way, but I don't see why this trend won't hold for quite some time yet. Bitcoins have such scarcity that the price has to go up as more people get involved. |
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$200 can fall any time and before long the all time high might look like a little jagged spike on the way up a much larger spike.
Gold, silver, forex markets, oil S&P500 etc can all be manipulated by large banks armed with printing press but I feel that bitcoins is still relatively unmanipulated. In the future there may be bitcoin etf, large ripple gateways etc which can act as 'dark' stashes of bitcoins traded off the blockchain which will finally give banks the means to sell large volumes of bitcoins that don't exist (like they currently do with gold for example). Until that happens, enjoy a liberated free bitcoin market shining as a bright light amongst an otherwise almost completely controlled economy which is rapidly heading towards debt collapse and ruin.
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I say all three. I'm a bit less heavy on bitcoins than gold and silver because i consider the risks higher, though the potential gains more. Gold and silver have always been valued. Bitcoins is still untested for mass adoption.
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I hear this a lot. In all these conspiracy and economic videos people say that this can't go on forever. At the first glance it seems obvious that parabolic rise can't go on forever but can anyone explain me why this is the case with US debt ceiling? These are just numbers in databases so why can't they be increased forever. Is US facing integer overflow with its debt ceiling?
Second question related somewhat to the first one. Let's say global politics is a competition. What if I loan a lot of money from other countries and never plan to pay back? I can then spend the loaned money on my military equipment so that if others start to demand the money to be paid back I could just show them the middle finger in the politically correct way.
Most countries don't have a 'debt ceiling', thats all just part of a big charade in the US. However the US government has a huge deficit, like 1 trillion dollars per year or something, they're paying it off with more debt. This can't go on forever because its mental. You can't live on a credit card forever. |
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you had a dream? Seriously?  Seems legit. I'm convinced. I Lol'd |
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