when it comes to contagion
binance seen a fault in FTX and sold its assets and escaped from the grief of FTX
(when you see a hole in a boat and know it will sink. grab your belongings and jump ship.. raise the alarm and hope everyone else can to)

yes binance whistleblew the fault and caused FTX to go on a bank run and then fell due to lack of funds(fault of FTX)

but i am less concerned about binance.. a single business..
and more concerned about the DCG that was sister to FTX and had many business links to FTX and lost alot due to FTX

coinbase(DCG family) has 65m customers
binance only has 25m customers

if you add up all the customers of DCG family businesses..
(couple dozen custodial exchanges)
its DCG that would cause massive damage to investors if DCG failed.

shame that so many people are avoiding talking about DCG

there are 210,000 blocks per ~4 years
so 420k=8year
so 525k blocks for 10 years.... b'coz, math

also there are 1765275 coins left.
meaning 3.36 coins per block to share over 10 years


ID registration in a pseudonymous world.. um. not gonna work.
and you cant just use a nodes user agent or IP. as thats just going to get cloned/spoofed.. change over time naturally thus untrackable reliably. unless you use some at worse  ID registration (or at best.. staked address)


removing a cost mechanism for coin creation makes a coin no longer a value asset. but a lottery

if you want random payments based on length of staying in a system. go play the PoS lotto
bitcoin has already forked many PoS variants. so you already have systems that offer what you want.


people can 'pool' stake...
.. just like PoW no longer functions with solo-mining.. just saying

update

using the "bitcoin richlist"
the top 3 categories
january 2022
[100,000 - 1,000,000)   793,314 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,262,241 BTC   
[1,000 - 10,000)   4,630,567 BTC   

december 2nd
[100,000 - 1,000,000)   672,354 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,072,651 BTC
[1,000 - 10,000)   5,177,623 BTC

december 18th
[100,000 - 1,000,000]   684,123 BTC
[10,000 - 100,000)   2,291,459 BTC
[1,000 - 10,000)   4,601,707 BTC


which is a total of
Jan:  7922628
dec 2nd: 7686122  (average 770 a day removed(jan-dec day avg))
today: 7577289 (average 6800 a day removed(dec day avg))

seems people are still pulling coins out of exchanges, and it seems to be more coins on average per day in december than the amount per day average for the year

for deflationary assets where supply decreases should have its own definition to explain eventually nothing is left

decay-tionary

im sure there is a word. but cant think of it right now

a few years ago there were a few altcoins described as "demurrage" coins
(greyscale GBTC is demurrage) where users holdings reduce per year in way of a 2% fee per year

my pains

regulations:
regulators protect business, police customers
regulators dont police businesses, protect customers

they cant evolve/have a hybrid regulator that understand the differences between mainnet PoW assets vs speculated PoS/pegged tokens.

they refuse to recognise crypto business/ico models, so decline licences. but then whinge that a business/ico is not licenced

leverage risk:
allowing loan sharking (20x leveraging)
allowing customer to have 2000% risk without credit checks or max %risk

excessive corporation valuations:
exchanges that do $1.1b for 2year cashflow valuation.
(normal 2x of cashflow is fair value)
yet markets rating them at $8billion (16x of cashflow)
yet these exchanges do not have their own corporate assets of 16x cashflow
coinbase: $750m volume
=$1.5m fee(cashflow/income) /day (0.2% fee)
=$547m/year
=$1.1b 2 year

2017: "backward compatibility", no longer requires consensus upgrade first to vote in an activation. its now a 'just let the horse in, its fine we dont need to check it, we trust someone else has before'

just saying.. there is a back door. but seems no one cares that consensus is not the same byzantine generals solution of 2009-2014

from reading hydrogens endless copy/paste articles. i believe he is one of them "doomsday" preppers.

even though water and food are not deflationary. he is of the mindset of post armageddon scenario in his evaluations of what an asset/deflation item is to him

ok first.
a commodity is a base product used to produce other products
300 years ago this was raw produce..
such as
beef=burger
gold= jewellery
oil=fuel

it then evolved into
mortgage agreements=derivative baskets

and now they(regulators) wish to call any mainnet(base producer) crypto currency that has a bridge/peg mechanism to a token. to be classed as a commodity
EG
ethereum=NFT erc-20 tokens like FTT
bitcoin=liquid

..
so now lets delve into my point of comparison between how the fiat commodity market of say wheat. compares to the crypto commodity market of say ethereum

fiats crypto commodity of ethereum has no limited supply much like wheat
but bitcoin does have a limited supply (like gold/oil)

so when deciding to get into the wheat or ethereum market. both are comparable.
however some notable fiat investors such as warren buffet dont actually buy wheat stock. instead the buy farms that produce wheat. so that if wheat has a good year the farm has a good year and thus buffet wins via a better farm valuation.
if wheat has a bad year. buffet can still sell the farm and recoup some value from seling the land, harvester equipment,

however in crypto. because it doesnt own land or buildings to set up a crypto business
if avoiding ethereum but wanting to buy a company that creates/uses ethereum.. those companies are not actually valued as well as real commodity produces of farming wheat

EG buying an exchange like FTX has no fully owned office space, and employees work remotely thus no electronic assets to sell. (they rent amazon AWS servers)

this means for instance if you bought into FTX becasue they do stuff with ethereum.. if their ethereum deposits have a bad year. ftx has nothing of value... as we all learned
(ftx had alot of ethereum an its other tokens were ethereum pegged tokens)

mining pools or staking syndicates have no central land/office/servers that have value to the company(its all decentralised)

so the warren buffets of fiat investment. dont want to get into crypto business purchasing and have never been into buying the underlying commodity(asset) whether fiat based or crypto based

this is also true for the so called "trusts" (premature ETF's)
though they sell shares/tokens of a trust and have collateral of commodity assets. the fiat investors that plan investments the same way as warren buffet wont buy the trust shares or even ownership stakes of the management companies of the trusts.

even if regulated(some think its   the hold up of mainstreaming) to show accounting and viable/sustainable reserves. if the commodity prices shrink. there is not enough office building ownership or land or equipment of these crypto companies to have a separate good value worth investing in as a backup to the underlying asset stored in collateral

again take FTX. it has no land, bought office or equipment. it was run by about 60 people who mostly worked remotely. thus there was no company equipment to put to auction should their FTT and ethereum (and bitcoin) disappear

there is no way we can get the warren buffet investor types to see crypto as something they would invest in even with extra regulation

---

that said. for other fiat investors. who are less like buffet.
regulation of "proof of reserves", regular auditing to satisfy a good true company valuation or trust collateral total. would give resolution to some fears. but these regulations should be more about investor protection. and not bureaucracy of more paperwork required by investors, and limitations on their trade ability/involvement

i say all this because there is alot of economic speculation about the whole saga of regulations trying to swap from SEC to CFTC. and crypto companies impact on the perception of the industry as a whole and the impact regulations can then cause either more mainstreaming or just a waste of time

the whole last 5 years of leaping back and for the from asset or commodity classification thus sec ->cftc->sec->cftc is keeping mainstream investors like pension fund managers away. because regulators cant make their minds up and actually finally decide what rules crypto businesses need to follow, and what stock/commodity(ftse) or share/security(nasdaq) exchange to list their company publicly on

the lack of investor/consumer protection regulation and the obsessions with excessive AML/KYC also doesnt favour pensions portfolio managers

by excessive KYC. its not just KYC of the users of the exchange/company. its the paperwork and KYC even outside of businesses that are being proposed. even at the individual coin tx outside of the company requirements. is a headache for funds managers to process. when they want to arbitrage or allow withdrawals for their own customers day trading

i dont see an easy 'sec allows ETF' and boom mainstream event..
i dont see it happening any time soon. nor a flood of new investors the day it does happen...
...unless the SEC& CFTC modernise and actually realise crypto is not like wheat. a farm is not like a custodial wallet/mining pool and the fiat rules of securities or commodities do not fit all crypto asset types

be cautious about words like "market price" vs underlying value

some land may have been at premium price in year X and cheaper rate in Y year

but in comparison to the 'comps' of land value per acre where the lowest amount over time is shown. (not the premium rates) the cheaper land at year Y may still be above year X cheap rate

lets imagine we had the power to develop a CBDC which didnt have a premine. but instead a fair mechanism of "new coin" creation

how you would set out a way to create new money.
we know FIAT currently uses mortgage agreements/ QE bond agreements to create new money
but imagine you had the central bank think-tank advisory position to create a new CBDC with a fair and better "coin minting" mechanism

lets hear your idea's.

my idea, for fun..(not scrutinised for every possible scenario)
when a child is born. in a multisig of parents +doctor(midwife witness of bith) plus government birth records department. create an allotment of coin. which equates to social security payments for a min rate income over 80 years.

however those coins are not just released at birth. they are locked. to only be released under X circumstance (unemployment, retirement, childcare, education)

thus the new coins take care of the social security, public services payment system, thus remove tax obligations.

now lets hear your idea's

disclaimer
this is a bit of fun economic thinking. about a hypothetical scenario of wishing into an existence a crypto monetary system that whole nations would want to use. specifically the minting process that would be fair

its not about a opportunity for weed smoking tin-foiler's to be challenged to mention their paranoia where they think their politicians are sat at computers watching their constituents/citizens coffee purchases('gov i s watching me')

(please try to stick to a economic thinking of a fair monetary system not a political conspiracy)

food is not deflationary

food is inflationary

one tomato contains several seeds. meaning its exponential inflation growth

PRICES going up does not mean VALUE goes up with it
VALUE declines when food prices go up

EG imagine 5 tomatos cost at retail $1. or a loaf of bread
but a farmer was producing tomatos for $0.50 for 5
(at the time bread loaf was $1)

imagine real costs increased the tomatos by 10%
farmer now has a $0.55 cost

you would think this equates to retailer selling tomatos at a 10% meaning $1.10
but no
retailers instead of selling at a 2x of farmer. now sell at a 3x of farmer
meaning that tomatos retail for $1.65

bread also goes up to $1.65
..
so previously a farmer could sell 2x tomato bunches to get retailer bread
but now has to sell 3x tomato bunches to buy bread from retailer

that is not deflation. thats inflation..

..

bitcoin is deflationary
buying bitcoin at 2020 low of $3.15k+ and selling at this years low of $15.75k+ means you get5x more fiat
which even if bread has increased by 65%

2020: 3150 loaves
2022: 9545 loaves
so even now bitcoins value as a deflation hedge means you get 5x more fiat and in value terms 3x more bread

open source is not about there being backdoors. as you can SEE the source code

but open source no longer means "open community", "open door" involvement of the development and activation process of new features
the devs have a closed door policy, with the false appearance of an open door policy

.. its this now lack of vote-in to activate, that is a closed door policy for review/scrutiny that becomes the greater harm. not backdoors

you can read the code. but your not part of the decision if that code should be part of the full community network rule-set

in 2009-14 it required a majority of full node users to have upgraded their node to include potential rule-set change validation, before new rule activation. to then be ready to validate the new rule without causing a fork.
whereby lack of majority means the features dont upgrade.
in short it was a opt-in vote to activate

but now new rules get activated without opt-in vote requirement/need of the wider community

the policy is now close minded dev group, of:
"if you dont like the code.. fork off to an altcoin and see who follows"
thus devs are no longer scrutinised by those outside their dev group, and instead told to go away

its grant grab season.. the bidding war begins. those who can prove fusion first get the golden grants of government money. those who delay get the left overs or nothing

they were not shares or stocks. they were tokens where the exchange should have had enough value held to allow people to sell its token back to fiat or proper assets.. where the exchange should be able to fulfil requests

if you had tokens in a system and you found out that system was syphoning funds.. wouldnt you also want to sell your tokens and escape before the collapse

funny how they say "forced"

thats like saying FTT cant be sold and there is no conversion feature. you need to break someones legs if you want out ..

actual events is more like binance just sold its FTT and wanted out. but SBF was left with nothing becasue SBF stole value months prior and wasnt expecting a bank run

stupid media say customer balance totals 597602 on the 22nd of november

yet.. binances actual customer amount was
575,742.4228 BTC
https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/binance-releases-proof-of-reserves-system-0c7a786cbe8c4e108f3301385ab61e39
and binances onchain totals more then the 575k customer database balance

binance has total holdings (corp+customer) = BTC 764,327
binance has total holdings (customer) = BTC 582,485
binance customer balance = 575,742 BTC

so yea binance has more coin than customer database balance.

the reason why certain media are aiming bad news at binance. is:
a. distraction talk: avoid talking about the DCG contagion
b. dcg and bsv are enemies of binance for different reasons
c. if dcg can damage binance DCG can grab binance customers

---

here is the thing
DCG greyscale meant to be a trust managed by greyscale.
BUT
it has been show greyscale do not have any bitcoin funds in their management. they say their funds are secured in coinbase
but.. funny news. coinbase will not reveal the reserves proofs "due to security/business privacy reasons"

https://grayscale.com/safety-security-and-transparency/

ofcourse there are bottoms

2009-2011 >0.04
2012-2014 >4.00
2014-2016 >200.00
2017-2019 >900.00
2020-2022 >4000.00

just be happy those bottoms are going up

the hobby miners that change their minds daily will drop first(they have the highest costs anyway)
this then means there is less competition and more coin to give to the large industrial efficient miners. thus bringing more coin to those base cost miners. which then balances out the industrial miners larger costs.

larger mining cost would increase. but not at a fast/large swing compared to the hobby miners

at the halving yes coins rewarded halve and the competition game happens again

this is why you see asics get more efficient
in 2016
2.8kwh only hashed about 9thash..
in 2017
2.8kwh only hashed about 26thash..
in 2020 now this december
2.8kwh  hashes about 130thash..

thats a 3x then 5x efficiency gain in 6 years
meaning the halving effects of 2016 got taken care of and also the halving of 2020 got taken care of

second worse year??

excuse me..

i dont think you understand economics

here


dont confuse price vs value

price discovery: archer and arrow trajectory
to hit the bull of a raised value target(bull on the hill). you first need to aim even higher knowing that nature will correct down to hit the raised higher value correctly

forget about the fluffy cloud the price aims at first ATH
dont cry when gravity of the situation corrects

dont call that part the "worse ever"
thats normal

value discovery:
realise the bull is at a raised ground level to where you stood in the past.

what you dont want to see is a previous cycles low(ground level) being higher then this cycles low ground level (hint: it never happened)

relax.. social media fud spun some rumour..
the tweets were that elon will delete 1.5billion inactive accounts

twitter only has 1.5b accounts
in short its like saying subtly elon will delete everyone unless you use it every month

which is not the case.
elon never said he will specifically delete hals account either.

its just hysterical media spinning hysteria

the chip is not a lightning node or a codebase of converting private key to public key.. nor doing any signing or commit process inside the hand

its just a chip containing the LN URL of a channel you have open... and a private key(hsm_secret) and that is all

its then the reader(other device) that does the processing. meaning you are handing(literally) a private key over to a middleman
who uses the key to authenticate your authorising the payment.. well technically the merchant is, by using your key

also

LN payments are not bitcoin. bitcoin never leaves the bitcoin network
this chip example is a key to a wallet/channel balance in a lightning node somewhere else that needs to be online to allow payment

all it is doing is storing a key without a bit of paper or plastic or device in a pocket. becasue its in your hand physically beneath the skin

.. easily stolen by someone with a reader brushing passed your hand and scanning the RF chip

next invention.. needing to wear gloves all day with a "faraday cage" mesh insert in the glove to protect your hand