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541  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 04, 2023, 12:31:41 PM
Amazing results for the UFC Fight Night - Dariush vs. Tsarukyan and yeah there are so many bonuses for this event, and eventually we are now moving on to the new event,

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez

DATE: Saturday 12.09.2023
TIME: 07:00 PM ET
PROMOTION: Ultimate Fighting Championship
VENUE: UFC Apex
LOCATION: Last Vegas, Nevada, United States



MAIN EVENT
Yadong Song VS Chris Gutierrez

CO-MAIN EVENT
Anthony Smith VS Khalil Rountree Jr.

MAIN CARD
Sumudaerji VS Allan Nascimento
André Muniz VS Jun Yong Park
Nasrat Haqparast VS Jamie Mullarkey

PRELIMINARY CARD
Hyun Sung Park VS Shannon Ross
Tatsuro Taira VS Carlos Hernandez
Kenan Song VS Kevin Jousset
Stephanie Egger VS Luana Santos
Rayanne dos Santos VS Talita Alencar
Daniel Marcos VS Carlos Vera
Steve Garcia VS Melquizael Costa

The Information was from Tapology: https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/105194-ufc-fight-night


This event is not as good as the one just last weekend at Austin but it's decent enough.  At least for me it is, not sure about you guys.  :/  And I'm glad Garcia vs Costa is still happening and moved to this event.  Excited to see Costa back in the cage.

UFC Free Fight:  Song Yadong vs Simon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ozva8A3-9s

UFC Free Fight:  Gutierrez vs Alatengheili
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTKfpaOhFMw

And here is the last event's results...  And man, Tsarukyan is on a tear.  I wonder who the UFC will give him next.

Arman Tsarukyan def Beneil Dariush  KO R1
Jalin Turner def Bobby Green  KO R1
Deiveson Figueiredo def Rob Font  UD
Sean Brady def Kelvin Gastelum  Submission R3
Joaquim Silva def Clay Guida  UD
Dustin Stoltzfus def Punahele Soriano  Submission R2
Miesha Tate def Julia Avila  Submission R3
Cody Brundage def Zachary Reese  KO R1
Drakkar Klose def Joe Solecki  KO R1
Rodolfo Bellato def Ihor Potieria  TKO R2
Jared Gooden def Wellington Turman  Submission R2
Veronica Hardy def Jamey-Lyn Horth  SD

UFC Austin:  Post Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u714lwtlNbs
542  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for December on: December 02, 2023, 01:29:09 PM

Looking at those charts, it would be funny if we see BTC trend up to a new ATH this early.  It would be something like seeing a new all time high during December, 2015 or December, 2019.  I mean I wouldn't mind tho.  Lol.

I'd say things have not changed much compared to previous months. The world is still struggling with armed conflict, high energy prices and shortage, inflation and recession. The effects of all that on the economy also affects bitcoin in a negative way preventing its rise despite the tremendous amount of potential it has for rise.

As if we didn't have enough wars, another battle started in South American. Another region where US is destabilizing! It also happens to be a very oil rich region called Venezuela.

But BTC has been trending up.  Are we seeing crypto decoupling itself from the more regular, traditional markets?  And if so, how long could it stay in this state?
543  Economy / Gambling / Re: FORTUNEJACK.COM |Deposit 777 play with 1777 mBTC |Live Casino, Slots, Betting on: December 02, 2023, 01:10:18 PM

I can't cancel the withdrawal; if I could I might end up losing my winnings again. Lmao. Hopefully next withdrawal should be instant since I'm verified now.
 

Lol.  That's usually the case.  Cheesy  Somebody from FJ prolly said 'keep holding his money and let it stay in the process of withdrawal...  Those pesky guys at BCT might open another scam accusations thread against us again.'.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  J/K

Anyway here are my picks for the Majestic 7 and like last week, I really reeaaally have a good feeling about these picks.  And as always, follow or fade, it's up to you.

Saka
No goal scorer for Burnley vs Sheffield United match
Elanga
Isak
Soucek
Sterling
Haaland

Leeez gooo!
544  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 02, 2023, 12:47:41 PM
I dont know why bookmakers gave Arman Tsarukyan role of such a big favorite like odds are showing, but I think Beneil Dariush is not without chances in this fight.
This is maybe his best chance to come back after losing so easy from Charles Oliveira, and he is not getting any younger.
Figueiredo fight is also interesting and I think he is going to win against Font.

Dont forget to post your predictions in Multi Master Challenge and win rewards from Sportsbet: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475695.0

Tsarukyan is younger, faster and stronger...  Prolly better cardio too.  Dariush sightly better grappling and striking but slower and he got finished at his last fight.  The books prolly think it's gonna be something the same again.  :/  And they could be right...

Fig looked good on the scale.  I think it's in the realms of possibility that Fig finishes it would a sub. 

Anyway, here's the ceremonial weigh ins.

UFC Austin:  Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIIQgLozd78

Gastelum looked good on the scale too.  Didn't think he could make 170 again.  Man have a feeling he'll piece up Brady real good.
545  Economy / Speculation / BTC Sentiment Poll for December on: December 01, 2023, 01:12:19 PM
I honestly don't know what to ask for the poll but I have a gut feeling some of you guys might be starting to think that a correction here is healthy which I agree with...  But who knows, it could go on with another leg up as BTC usually does when it has the momentum.

I guess the question in the poll asks exactly what kind of sentiment everybody is having rn after another green month.  Remember guys, there's no right or wrong answer.  Just go with your gut and choose based on how you feel.  The poll is all about the sentiment not the analysis.

546  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: What Coin is Best for short term speculation on: December 01, 2023, 12:55:09 PM
Aaand 9 days later it's not playing out as good as I anticipated with WEB.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  GROK went up on high volume sucking liquidity away from most memecoins then when it trend started to falter, it just gave an opportunity for another memecoin to suck remaining liquidity away again.  And this time it's another token that's playing with the 'Elon Meta' with the ticker GFY which stands for Go Fuck Yourself.  Lmao.

If you guys didn't know, Elon Musk told Bob Iger to go fk himself when he was interviewed...  Hence a new memecoin was born.  Nice.  :/
547  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2023 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread on: December 01, 2023, 12:42:30 PM
I wasn't planning on joining this pool next season after my abysmal result.  But I think I may have found a way to beat the game and wanna try it.  So yeah...  If this pool is running again next year, I'll play with you guys again.  Wink

I think it's less than three months to go before Bahrain GP..?  Tests on December and the cars are unveiled on Feb?  It's really not that long before next season.  Grin  Hopefully Ferrari and Merc catch up with Red Bull on car development.  I'm starting to hate Verstappen now.  Lolol.
548  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: December 01, 2023, 12:36:48 PM




You think odds on Arman are correct and justified?
I dont think he is going to be that dominant against Beneil Dariush like odds suggest, and I am thinking we could sea major upset here.
My best bet in this card is Deiveson Figueiredo, I think this is perfect him to return winning against Rob Font.


I really like Arman Tsarukyan's chance, it could be a 50/50 chance but in my opinion, because of his age the chance of getting a win might be possible, and because of this a younger fighter also has a chance of getting much improvement for sure Charles Oliveira is stronger than Beneil Dariush as I think he is not improving much I guess this is just what I think as Arman Tsarukyan looks pretty much improving over time than with Gamrot,



If the match is 50/50 then there's lots of value for Dariush at 3.20 making it +EV and should make you money long term if you keep taking these spots.  I think the books are thinking that Dariush is getting KO'd as he did vs Charles Oliveira.  Tsakuryan very may well could but then again, MMA is such a nuanced sport that there's a larger degree of unpredictability than say..  boxing.

Anyway another interesting match up could be Sean Brady vs Gastelum.  If Gastelum looks good on the scale, he could win this one.
549  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Sportsbet.io - UFC on ESPN 52 - Multi Master Challenge - (Saturday, 2 December) on: November 30, 2023, 01:55:07 PM
13. Beneil Dariush
12. Bobby Green
11. Deiveson Figueiredo
10. Kelvin Gastelum
9. Punahele Soriano
8. Joaquim Silva
7. Julia Avila
6. Cody Brundage
5. Joe Solecki
4. Melquizael Costa
3. Ihor Potieria
2. Wellington Turman
1. Veronica Hardy

NOT go the Full Distance:  6
550  Economy / Gambling / Re: Rollbit.com | Crypto's Most Rewarding Casino 👑 on: November 30, 2023, 01:51:02 PM
^  Would be interesting to see what the traffic from Poland are mostly playing in the site, whether it's sports, straight up degening in the casino or making trades in the perps market.

How are the crypto regulations side of things in Poland for exchanges?  If it's tight then I think Polish degens are more likely to trade the perps market. 

Another thing is how early are Christmas bonuses handed out in Poland?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy 
551  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2023/2024 on: November 30, 2023, 01:35:19 PM

Don't forget about the Newcastle vs Man United match.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Could be a good one as Newcastle hasn't really lost at home except for that one game against Liverpool.  Man United on the other hand have won 5 of their last 6 matches and won their last 4 away matches...  They also kept a clean sheet in three of them.  I think they could do better than what we saw with Chelsea last weekend.  :/

Another good match is Chelsea vs Brighton.  Not sure why with Chelsea's home record they're line at 1.71 and Brighton is 4.40.  Shouldn't it be a little closer?

@tokeweed Newcastle will win this game because they’re playing some amazing football and while Manchester United have rebounded well they’re yet not ready to face a team like Newcastle. Furthermore Chelsea will have a tough game but they can yet win because they definitely have quality player’s who can help them overcome the challenge that Brighton player’s will throw at them.

It got me thinking.  What does Brighton's injury list look like?  That's the only thing that would make sense why the bookies got this with Brighton at 4.40.  Draw no bet is at 3.15.  Grin  I think I'm gonna hit that one up if their injury list isn't as bad.

*Checks injury list*

So it looks like March, Enciso, Welbeck, Dunk and Estupinan will be out.  There are also a couple of players who could be doubtful to play like Mitoma...  :/  And they'll be playing at the Europa League and have a day's rest.  Yeah...  Pass.
552  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: November 30, 2023, 01:26:14 PM




Again I'm talking about line value and the line is def wide.  Dariush at 3.20 could be value, that's if he doesn't get KO'd.  And if I'm betting on Tsarukyan at 1.37 or whatever then I'd expect no less than total dominance on the mat, on the feet and by the cage  which I don't think will happen.  But yeah, I could be wrong.  I just don't think with Dariush's skill set and experience he should be lined at 3.20.

I agree. I don't understand reasons for those odds. I'd say both have around equal chances of winning. Looks like the bookies put too much weight on the age difference and heavily favour younger fighters, but Dariush is 34, so it's still not quite the "decline" period.

Yup but don't get me wrong.  Before everybody starts parading itt if I'm wrong, I just wanna say I agree with the books that Tsarukyan should be the rightful favorite.  But not that big of a favorite.  The match is a pass but if I bet, I'd go for Dariush.  Better value for your money imho.

Didn't you make a thread about long term EV?  I think that applies here.

Anyway, here's another replay.  Lol.  So many replays for this event.

UFC Free Fight:  Green vs Haqparast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeJC1ZkY3s4

Turner vs Green could be wide too...  And a couple others like Brundage.

And jeremypwr's Multi Master is up and running.  Enjoy!

UFC on ESPN 52:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475695.0
553  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for November on: November 29, 2023, 12:51:17 PM
There it is folks...  Grin  It looks like BTC has started another run and this time it could stay above 38k.  And if it really does, next resistance could be around 47k - 48k..?  Dunno, I'm just basing those figures on what I see in the daily and the weeky chart rn.  Lol.  Cheesy  Some of you guys are better at chart reading from what I've seen.

Anyway, would love too see at what price you guys think the monthly candle closes.

As for the poll, 24 people were right while 6 people woke up at the wrong side of the bed and 3 were not sure.
554  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2023/2024 on: November 29, 2023, 12:31:47 PM
These are the next set of Premier League games taking place this coming weekend:

Saturday 2nd December
Arsenal vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Brentford vs Luton Town
Burnley vs Sheffield United
Nottingham Forest vs Everton  
Newcastle United vs Manchester United


Sunday 3rd December
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Chelsea vs Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool vs Fulham
West Ham United vs Crystal Palace  
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur


Arsenal play Wolves at home on Saturday therefore you would expect them to win the game and increase their lead at the top of the Premier League table. Manchester City host Tottenham on Sunday, also Aston Villa and Liverpool play their respective games therefore if Arsenal drop points they will try to take advantage.

Another exciting set of games  Grin

Don't forget about the Newcastle vs Man United match.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Could be a good one as Newcastle hasn't really lost at home except for that one game against Liverpool.  Man United on the other hand have won 5 of their last 6 matches and won their last 4 away matches...  They also kept a clean sheet in three of them.  I think they could do better than what we saw with Chelsea last weekend.  :/

Another good match is Chelsea vs Brighton.  Not sure why with Chelsea's home record they're line at 1.71 and Brighton is 4.40.  Shouldn't it be a little closer?
555  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: November 29, 2023, 12:11:30 PM
And who beat Dariush ? Not the top of lightweight division either Cheesy Actually I have same questions to Arman and Dariush - why are you so high in ranking, when you beat unranked guys ? Cheesy But, I know why odds on Arman are so low and Dariush is a huge underdog. Age and the fact that Arman lost to Makhachev via UD Cheesy That automatically crosses out wrestling and bjj from Dariush skills, and Armans striking is much better Cheesy Its A+ for me in this math test.

I am more interested to watch Rob Fons vs Figueiredo fight. First seems to retire any second, second only fought lego lover over last 3 years (that bad, as it limits you as a fighter, as a technician) Cheesy

Sure Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite...  He's younger and more athletic.  But then does that totally negate Dariush as a fighter?  Don't forget that Dariush beat Gamrot, the guy who Tsarukyan.  I think the line is wide at 3.20 for Dariush.  That's just around 30% implied probability.  Surely Dariush could make the match closer and prolly even go his way.  Unless he got KO'd as he tends to be on the chinny side.


We are playing math now Cheesy Dont forget that Tsarukyan lost by UD to Makhachev. A guy who subbed Oliveira, who TKOed Dariush (when he supposed to submit him) Cheesy Its Tsarukyan that gained experience after Makhachev fight vs Dariush who lost peak Oliveira. Dunno, dunno. I am bad at math... Gonna be a good fight.


 

Again I'm talking about line value and the line is def wide.  Dariush at 3.20 could be value, that's if he doesn't get KO'd.  And if I'm betting on Tsarukyan at 1.37 or whatever then I'd expect no less than total dominance on the mat, on the feet and by the cage  which I don't think will happen.  But yeah, I could be wrong.  I just don't think with Dariush's skill set and experience he should be lined at 3.20.

Here's another replay to watch...  Enjoy.  Wink

UFC Free Fight:  Turner vs Mullarkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PlrYX1J8O4

Edit:  Here's more from UFC Brazil's YT channel.

UFC Free Fight:  Fig vs Moreno 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaaTClnaOhU

UFC Free Fight:  Tsarukyan vs Alvarez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts4zyIpLSy4

UFC Free Fight:  Dariush vs Gamrot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKCq_IS9ons
556  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Layer 2 Blast and airdrop! on: November 28, 2023, 12:24:23 PM
Appears they are staking eth received on lido, and thus giving rewards to the depositors. Also, their referral structure is seen in pyramid schemes. I feel there is nothing new, but good if they airdrop, it gonna have good value because of the hype, money out of thin air for everyone.

Ah ok...  As I was reading the OP, I was thinking where does the yield for the 'interest rate' given to the depositors come from?  Makes sense.  I think a lot of people at CT miss the point.  They were saying that bridging to Blast would trap your coins for months with nothing to show for.  They must have forgotten that Paradigm is behind this...  Remember the NFT project they had?  I think it was a free mint but then with a little marketing those NFT's trended up to 10 ETH each.  Lmao.

Not sure what's going to happen to BLAST tho.  But seeing how these things go, they're a bit lucrative.
557  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: November 28, 2023, 12:10:47 PM
Ferrari has a "ferrari rule" that makes the F1 give them insane amount of money, it was 60 million dollars a year last time I checked, to keep them in the game. The idea was that unless f1 gives them that kind of extra money, they would not be able to sustain it, and leave. Which is fine, there are other teams that have left before and Ferrari could leave too, right?

Teams are not in F1 to make money from the F1.
The balance of the F1 teams at the end of the season is around 0 earning.

Teams are in F1 for marketing their main activity, for Ferrari is selling luxury cars, and for Redbull to sell beverages.



Yup, that's true for the companies behind the teams.  But for the teams themselves that poured blood, sweat and tears in trying to win races, winning the prize money for the team could also be a boost for them.  Could be a morale boost too.  Who doesn't like winning some money?  Lol. 

But yeah...  I'm not really sure how employee bonuses go in these teams but more money, more money in their pockets, I guess.

And just 95 days to go before the first race of the next season guys.  We'll be posting Formula Dank meme and laughing before you know it.  Wink
558  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2023/2024 on: November 28, 2023, 12:00:02 PM
Wow Chelsea got a trashing.  I expected them to get a draw and if ever they lost, maybe in something like a 1 - 0, 2 - 1.  But losing 4 - 1 shows there's def still something happening behind the scenes and Poch might not be the manager who could fix it.  And as the culture of modern football goes, we'll be seeing 'Poch Out' banners in home fixtures if losses like these keep coming up.

Chelsea's next match is vs Brighton at home...  Not a walk in the park.  And they're poor at home with a 1 W - 3 L - 3 D record.  :/
I feel like they are complacent a win against Spurs and a draw against Mancity, as they shouldn't be. Newcastle is a good team, but lost 1- 4 is still not acceptable. Poch need to realize that their improvement hasnt stopped at how they performed against Spurs and Mancity. They still need to improve in every aspect. The team havent had a character as a tough side.

Poch needs to stick to his plan and demands continuous progression from his players each game, this is no a time to maintain. Collective work ethic, tactical discipline, and attacking flair from Chelsea players havent been enough for Chelsea to compete with top teams.

What Poch needs is make a list...  Of who's gonna be transferred away from the club within a 4 year period and a list of their short term, mid term and long term targets in the player market.  Just like what he did with Tottenham.  It took years before they were contenders for the CL and they also had their best years in the EPL under him.

I hope the Chelsea brass doesn't forget it and that they stick to the plan.  If Poch could transform the Spurs, he could do it much easier with Chelsea as they have the money and the prestige, somewhat.  Prestige is also important for acquiring players as it attracts them.
559  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: November 28, 2023, 11:51:25 AM
And who beat Dariush ? Not the top of lightweight division either Cheesy Actually I have same questions to Arman and Dariush - why are you so high in ranking, when you beat unranked guys ? Cheesy But, I know why odds on Arman are so low and Dariush is a huge underdog. Age and the fact that Arman lost to Makhachev via UD Cheesy That automatically crosses out wrestling and bjj from Dariush skills, and Armans striking is much better Cheesy Its A+ for me in this math test.

I am more interested to watch Rob Fons vs Figueiredo fight. First seems to retire any second, second only fought lego lover over last 3 years (that bad, as it limits you as a fighter, as a technician) Cheesy

Sure Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite...  He's younger and more athletic.  But then does that totally negate Dariush as a fighter?  Don't forget that Dariush beat Gamrot, the guy who Tsarukyan.  I think the line is wide at 3.20 for Dariush.  That's just around 30% implied probability.  Surely Dariush could make the match closer and prolly even go his way.  Unless he got KO'd as he tends to be on the chinny side.

Here's a replay for Tsarukyan.

UFC Free Fight:  Tsarukyan vs Silva
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3UhiYXiEQw

Anyway, who you guys have for Font vs Fig?
560  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2023/2024 on: November 27, 2023, 12:49:26 PM
Wow Chelsea got a trashing.  I expected them to get a draw and if ever they lost, maybe in something like a 1 - 0, 2 - 1.  But losing 4 - 1 shows there's def still something happening behind the scenes and Poch might not be the manager who could fix it.  And as the culture of modern football goes, we'll be seeing 'Poch Out' banners in home fixtures if losses like these keep coming up.

Chelsea's next match is vs Brighton at home...  Not a walk in the park.  And they're poor at home with a 1 W - 3 L - 3 D record.  :/
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