I must only remind myself that things tend to go slower than one may think. For example, that bet on the Wall Observer about <$750 within next 48 hours is absurd. Even though the price will reach those levels in my most probable scenario, it will take way longer than that.
Agreed. I don't see a drop into capitulation starting here. We will consolidate for some time first if/before it comes. |
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I love these threads. Seeing a lot of similarities in forum sentiment 12/9-12/10 and 1/5-1/6. Just saying.  |
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There seems to be some confusion between EW diagonal patterns and rising wedges. As far as I know, rising wedges do not require the wave counts that one would expect in a diagonal pattern, though their formations appear similar in shape. Is this correct? I am not too familiar with EW.
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Could Gox ever be shut down for malicious practices, and in the process locking all customer funds indefinitely? I'm just wondering since they haven't paid anyone since july. And because I want to work the arbitrage with my euros, but the risk of my funds getting locked up in that shit really deters me.
As the value of BTC rises the risk of someone suing Mt Gox and shutting it down in Japan rises. It doesnt make any sense to hire Japanese lawyers if Mt Gox owes you $2000. It is a no brainer if Mt Gox owes you $20 million and isn't paying. What I want to know is why MtGox don't just write a old fashioned check ? Or they could get bank drafts / cashiers checks and FedEx them. There are other ways of sending money than wire transfers and it doesn't need to be electronic. I wonder what reputable high volume processors would work with them. I'm skeptical. I'm sure there is no shortage of fly-by-night, high-margin processors (who probably can't handle anywhere near Gox's volume), though. Reminds me of getting shady 3rd party foreign checks from Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada, etc. with online poker. I had a check bounce on me 6 weeks after deposit with a check from a HK processor. Fuck that shit. Imagine dealing with Gox support with that kind of issue.... |
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I can't follow this. Link to original bet?
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After press conference organized by BAI headed by Mr. Nishith Desai, and after the take-aways of the conference are out to public through media, Mr. Nishith Desai has given us a green signal to start Unocoin operations which will be starting on 6th Jan 2014 when the logins will be enabled and Unocoin wallets will be accessible. Buying and selling of bitcoins will go live from 8th of Jan 2014. CoinMonk Ventures and Unocoin is very thankful to Nishith Desai and their team for being a part of press conference and guiding us through till here - Unocoin Team Mr. Nishith Desai is a lawyer. That's it. That's all I'm saying. I think there was a Financial Times article that I saw to similar effect. The questions I am interested in are not whether bitcoins "are illegal" per se, but how and whether Indian exchanges can legally operate under current laws (e.g. Is it legal to exchange BTC/INR? Is possible to comply with currency/commodity/AML etc. laws as currently written?) Regarding Chinese law firms, I have not. But I haven't been looking. I am not trying to be pessimistic -- I just find the process here surprising. |
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With all those bit coin days destroyed one could theorize a huge purchase of XXX,XXX coins occurred by fortress or something which averted an entire bear market worth of coins on exchanges.
Didn't that huge spike coincide with 400k oldish coins moving from a single address? What makes you think a single holder would dump 400k coins on exchanges? Maybe I am misinterpreting. I don't remember 400k except some transfer someone pointed out from 2011 to scare people. What we deduced was based on the days destroyed, it would have to be at least 96,000 coins. Whatever the amount is, it could be some ASIC mining firm that wanted to cash out their investment or pay invoices on equipment parts. Who knows. Oh yeah, I remembered wrong. Apparently I was remembering the 400k from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381045.msg4092625#msg4092625 |
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Somewhat brazen. Is there anything to indicate authorities have given the green light? I don't see anything. In before they get raided.
Give them a chance. I'm sure they understand the situation on the ground better than us. Half-joking. But given recent events, it does seem brazen. I can't find anything from Indian authorities clarifying RBI's position. All I can find is some stuff about a presumably new organization called Bitcoins Alliance India retaining a law firm which has apparently advised Unocoin to go ahead. Seems dicey, could go either way. Just thought this might be accompanied by some clarity on legality. Doesn't seem so. |
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Somewhat brazen. Is there anything to indicate authorities have given the green light? I don't see anything. In before they get raided.
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Volatility is bad for merchants wanting to use everyday in their coffee shops, bookstores, etc. Volatility is bad for someone wanting to use this online purchases, ie, Overstock.com. Will they be adjusting the price daily? Hourly? Etc.
Is it great for speculators though.
lololol. Bitpay. Ideally, I think, merchants accepting bitcoin ≠ merchants dumping bitcoin for fiat. |
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About a week ago, plagiarism was found in the articles of Notabot (Fheenix on devtome). It was just after the receiver files were made, so it was too late to regenerate the files. I talked with Notabot, and it turned out he hired a writer who was copying text. He was really sorry about it and wanted to quit. It was many articles, about 220,000 words worth, at an average of 300,000 devcoins per share, it's about 66 million devcoins. Notabot then deleted all those articles from devtome. Notabot was also selling his devcoins, so he has few left and full restitution is impossible. I judged that his repentance was sincere, and so I suggested a way to atone, following in spirit: http://www.devtome.com/doku.php?id=conditional_forgivenessNotabot would stop selling his devcoins, and send all but 5 million back to people at the end of December, and then send all but 5 million back at the end of the round 30 payment at the end of January. For a year, round 31 to round 42 inclusive, a third of his earnings would be sent back. This might seem like an easy way off, because this will not pay back all the devcoins. However, it is much harder and more expensive than simply quitting. I think this a reasonable atonement, however if a majority of admins don't want this then it's off. This was never clear to me. What is meant by "back to people?" Were these devcoins to be repaid in future rounds to the receivers in those rounds, or re-distributed to the other receivers in past rounds? What period of time did this occur over? |
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With all those bit coin days destroyed one could theorize a huge purchase of XXX,XXX coins occurred by fortress or something which averted an entire bear market worth of coins on exchanges.
Didn't that huge spike coincide with 400k oldish coins moving from a single address? What makes you think a single holder would dump 400k coins on exchanges? Maybe I am misinterpreting. |
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We've barely passed $1k again. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's very likely to dip again and give one last chance to buy 3-digit coins.
Will we drop below $900 again? Very unlikely. IMHO
Currently 3800 coins to break $900. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  |
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I'm not convinced we're heading to ATHs. I certainly think it will go lower than $1k again. I've started selling again.
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Right now I do think that Bitcoin price is 90% manipulated BS. However, it is also combined with unprecedented demand.
Looking at volume, is demand unprecedented? Compare, say, 11/2-11/28 and 12/21-1/4. |
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gotta love those weekend dips.
Yep, very reliable indeed. |
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Excellent. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Are you surprised by the extent of this rally from 12/17? What probability do you give to the reemergence of a bull market at this point?
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Hmmm. Just woke up and I don't think I can help but sell some into this. Let's hope I don't regret. you probably will. Dont see it going much lower next week. Shrug. At the very least, I expect a short-term pullback. This run-up was very fast, far above the trend we were on. |
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Hmmm. Just woke up and I don't think I can help but sell some into this. Let's hope I don't regret. |
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Tomorrow there will be a weekend low and that will be the best time to buy. Next week will test new levels of resistance.
Brave words...I'll make a note. Please do. I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted on here yet. Oh, come now. No one takes that condescending bullshit seriously. I recall one post specifically because it was in response to me, when price was just over $200 in October. I would bet we don't end the year more than $20 up or down from where we are today.
Then I thought, let's have a look. I do not see a lot of investment coming in during the holidays. Certainly not to push us up another $55-60 in the next 2 months. Especially since there are still some people who would just be happy to break even from the April crash, even more so during the holidays.
I don't think we will see ATHs until 2014.
It will be institutional investors that eventually get us to $1000+. Mom and pop can get us to new highs, but the BTC markets need billions of new capital investments into its coffers to get to 4 digits and beyond.
[...]
I still think this is probably at least over a year away.
I would not expect us to break above 266 before mid December or into the new year. If we do, we are probably headed for another sizeable dip.
There really is no resistance for a loooong time after $1000. $1500 maybe, but $2000 really is the next resistance after that. And 10000 cyn which is about $1630. Have some serious resistance there.
So all of you hoping for $400-$500 coins better prey some big hands come in and bust resistance downward. Otherwise, $600 is probably the best you will see in this rally.
3 days before the move to capitulation: After studying these markets daily, I believe I have a pretty good pulse on where things are going. Here are my 2 cents currently.
There is a groundswell of buying pressure sitting off to the sidelines and its growing. Its growing for 2 reasons. First, most traders are not 100% bitcoin at the moment. Just look on this mostly bullish forum. Most of us are partly fiat right now. We have $$$ sitting on the sidelines. Second,
there is a lot of new money coming into the exchanges that are not buying right away. That is why the bid sum is increasing. People want to invest, but do not necessarily want to invest if the price is going to go lower.
So every possible mid term scenario (minus a catastrophic one, which always exists) has one final result - an strong upswing in which the money is forced to come back into the market. This will eventually cause another large rally. To where, I do not know. But it is coming.
I think there are 3 near/mid term scenarios. I will list them most unlikely to most likely.
A. Incredibly bullish news spurns the market upward suddenly forcing the money on the sidelines back in causing a new huge rally.
B. The market consolidates where it is (around $900) for 1-4/5 weeks. This would be the most bullish scenario and would be similar to the consolidation around $120-$130 a few months ago.
C. The market ebbs sideways and downward over the holidays as the holiday season wins the news cycles and people hold off on investing and sending more funds to markets. In this scenario, we DO NOT reach another low past the $600ish already established. This would be very similar to the April rally where people expected it to test the low of $50s but it only got to $66, because everyone wanted to buy low.
I think C is most likely given the holidays. We will trend sideways to down, we will start a slow upswing sometime before $600. Somewhere from Dec. 30th to Jan. 31st that upswing will gain momentum and by sometime in February we will be in full fledge rally mode again. I also think this scenario could happen before February as well.
The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.
Just like I said, we may go lower but we are not going lower than 600 because everyone is watching there.
And the underlining mood of this market is bullish. Eventually we are going to hit a price where the money on the sideline says this is low enough. Then after the holidays when more institutional money comes in away we will go.
Or alternately we will go up anytime because honey badger don't give a SHIT.
If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.
There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.
Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.
We made a higher low on 12-20 and have not revisited it. You said: Look. I hear you. I actually agree with most of what you said. However, as much as it gets blasted TA is very effective in calling patterns. And technically speaking we have at least 1 more leg down. I might not make new lows, but still, it would be shocking if it did not happen.
What are your thoughts regarding this now: I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.
It seems your views have changed. Were you right then, or right now? We are already seeing an issue with people not wanting to invest at $200. I think the psychological challenges of the cost of a single bitcoin for a potential new investor will dampen the market to a degree. Unless we see the exchanges moving to a lower denomination than BTC, I think our growth from here on out will not be exponential. I could see us at $500-$1000 next year best case scenario. However, as the price rises, the growth curve will be dampened, no doubt.
Lol. That's pretty funny. But this doesn't change the fact that you are still an over-analytical asshole. You have this tendency to take 1 thing someone will post, find some literal misinterpretation and run with a counter argument, just for the sake of being a pompous prick. Now, I misspoke to say I hadn't made any incorrect calls. In fact, you could have quoted various of my previous posts where I have mentioned "not having a clue" or "maybe wrong" or "I missed the fact that..." or some other caveat where I recognize that we all, including myself have limitations. Of course you left any posts like this out because you wanted to paint a picture of me as a complete imbecile. The truth is I sometimes cut corners with what I post or don't qualify my statements in "context" simply because I take for granted that people on here won't take things as black or white, but perhaps with some grey or because I am posting from my phone or don't have the time and energy to clarify ever little detail. Although, while you posted several quotes most of them came down to me missing on either the fact that the rally at $250 would go to $1240 or missing the capitulation going below $600 - in essence missing the news from China, although I posted a poll about that very thing 10 days before it happened. There were a few other misses and some you didn't post (would you like me to add them for you?) but most of these quotes are about the same topics. Now it probably took you a good hour to go back through all my posts. And of course you didn't list any of my correct predictions, because you had a bone to pick. So, should I now go back and do the same to you? Heavens no, what a collossal waste of time and energy. But hopefully you had a laugh and feel better about yourself now. I can take it as good as I give it. So again, well done. All I ask is just try not to be such an analytical prick. Regarding being an "over-analytical asshole" and "pompous prick", I'd ask that you compare our posts. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQAie8ABLE You are obnoxious and condescending, and despite being wrong regularly, you arrogantly shit on people with insults and say shit like "I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted." I wasn't trying to make you look like an imbecile -- I was pointing out your arrogance. You exhibit your arrogance all day, every day, and I won't be the only one here to say it. The only person I would insult on this forum is you because you have it coming. It wouldn't matter if you quoted posts of mine. I don't go around telling people my shit doesn't stink. You do. It boggles my mind how you can call other people pompous. You ask that I not be an analytical prick? Welcome to the speculation forum. Get the fuck out if it pleases you. And again, regarding your insults, check yourself. But alas, you are right. I can't take time to keep responding to your bullshit. |
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