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761  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bull season started? on: November 17, 2023, 01:23:18 PM
My advice if you trade is to never rely too much on one historical pattern to make your investment decisions. So, if you want to check this sign, as far as I know, look and pay attention to the movement of the trading volume, whether it is increasing or not. If yes. That means, increasing support from market players, and the emergence of Positive Sentiment in society is a sign that this period will begin soon, although at first glance, this is also considered a positive signal for the crypto market.

As much as I agree with the note that past performance is not always a good indicator, I wouldn't dismiss historical patterns entirely. I don't think that's even possible - even in your example of going in when the volume goes up, it's probably on the fact that historically increases in price and volume were correlated.
Trading according to past patterns will not guarantee you success 100% of the time, but it gives you an advantage, simply by the fact that if a pattern was repeated multiple times in the past, it's more probable to play out the same way again than any other scenario.
762  Economy / Economics / Re: Entrepreneurship and women on: November 17, 2023, 01:08:51 PM
Let's apply your forward-looking perspective to entrepreneurship and gender today. Gender roles have been shaped by society and biology, but the business world is redefining them. Women are transforming business, not simply entering it. Modern corporate leadership requires resilience, innovation, and empathy

Support initiatives for women entrepreneurs aim to unlock hidden potential, not just level the playing field. Women in business boost economies and innovation. These programmes are prudent investments in a varied, resilient future economy as well as gender equality. So, aren't we all better off when we promote women's different entrepreneurial talents and perspectives? The goal is to enrich the business ecosystem, not only equality

No offence but this sounds like a corporate word-salad with no real substance.
Business world is very much affected by political activism, they are trying to wipe-out gender roles, but you can't overwrite biology with political decisions. Do you think any business actually appreciates being forced into gender-parities and alike?

Is there anything to back up your claim that women are more innovative in business? Men are responsible for the vast majority of ground-breaking inventions in the recent past, despite women (in the West) being free to pick whatever field they wanted for quite a long time now (not even to mention preferential access to male dominated fields).
If women are innovative and business-minded, why do we need any support programmes for them at all? And how's that "prudent investment" going? Why is the West losing its advantage over the developing countries who don't care at all about providing any special incentives for women or about gender parities. At some point, throwing around nice-sounding, inclusive phrases may not be enough and we'll need to do a cold-hearted analysis on what's working well and what isn't.
763  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 17, 2023, 12:44:12 PM
'worse'    The whole view of AI being a bad thing for replacing certain tasks done by humans is the wrong way round.  Its no worse then a horse or machine taking over work a human could do in a field manually.   If you can train AI to the do the task and there is no loss why would anyone be the loser from this accomplishment, society will not become poorer through having more resources and labor available after AI can do some routine tasks.     This view is part of why some fear capitalism overall, that somehow a task done profitably is bad and if done too well or too easily eliminates the gift of that work to a population requiring jobs; its all the wrong way round.  If we reduce the workload to any service or production it will make people overall better off, I dont deny short term upsets but it wont result in people suffering more then retraining.   Many countries are open to education and training throughout a persons lifetime, thats the emphasis I would place that all people should have access to education; if Im correct society is richer from AI or any advancement then we will be able to afford it and its the correct rights to give any people.  If AI were to make us worse off then sure I'd agree its a negative.

  All humans outrank anything a computer can do, its been a while since computers beat a chess grand-master and yet this continues to be an obvious truth and I find no reason it will ever be different despite great technology advancements

I wish you were right, but this nothing more than a baseless optimism and the belief that since the automation worked well in the past, it will always be the same. But there's no magical element that guarantees there will always be demand for human labour (big enough to engage most of the human population).
From a pragmatic and materialistic point of view - people are nothing but biological robots, so if we can build better robots that can do the same if not better work and are more efficient and reliable, less energy consuming etc, then there's no need for human labour.

I don't quite get your last point regarding chess. Are you of the impression that the computer beat the chess champion only once and is no longer able to do that? Because that's bot true. You have publicly available chess playing software that is better than the best of human players.
764  Economy / Speculation / Re: Microstrategy buys again! on: November 17, 2023, 12:23:57 PM
If a spot ETF gets approved there will likely be migration from Microstrategy to those
spot ETF's but then again if indeed the Bitcoin price rises wouldnt MSTR stock rise too?

It might be worth watching how MSTR price will behave if when spot ETFs get approved. I'd say there's a possibility there will be a temporary drop and the price could actually drop below the fair value, so potentially a good moment to buy.

I’m sure some retail investors will prefer to own the ETF instead of MSTR stock. However, a lot of people may actually prefer Microstrategy, just because they have a revenue source so the potential is there for your holdings to actually grow, while with an ETF your holdings will forever be dropping due to the fund management fees (even though they are small).

Fair point, but I'd expect fees for the BTC ETF to be on a lower end, so if investors expect BTC to go up in a long run, paying small fraction of percent per year won't make much difference. On the other end, Microstrategy had some problems in the past with the profitability of their operations (excluding changes in the BTC value), so that's an extra risk that many investors might be put off by.
765  Local / Polski / Re: [Oceny miesięczne] My polskojęzyczni i merity... on: November 16, 2023, 04:11:07 PM
Troche nas ubywa, ale biorac poprawke na mala liczbe aktywnych uzytkownikow, inne statystyki wygladaja calkiem OK, szczegolnie jezeli chodzi o rozdawanie meritow.
Merit za 1 posta podskoczyl az do 1.0, ladny skok biorac pod uwage srednia za ostatni rok 0.37. To daje nam 3cie miejsce w pazdzierniku. Az 41.2% postow zostalo nagrodzonych przynajmniej jednym meritem, lepiej od nas wypadly tylko Indie.
766  Other / Meta / Re: [CHARTS] Brief monthly overview of the local boards activity on: November 16, 2023, 04:01:26 PM
Massive thanks for the update! It's always an interesting read.

Something strange happened in Indian board as they somehow managed to have 55% percent of posts that receive at least 1 merit which is the highest percentage I saw so far, esepcially since their usual number is much lower and it its around 20%. It would be interesting to hear someone from that board how they managed to achieve that and is their post quality increased that much or something else caused it. At the same time, polsih is not that far ahead but it is kinda normal for less active boards to have higher percentage of merited posts.

As for the Polish board, we made quite a big jump in all merit-related stats. This is largely due to this post, in which me and other members of the Polish section received large amounts of merits earmarked for the purpose of spending them on our board. Combined with a drop in active members and posts, this converts to higher ratios.

767  Economy / Speculation / Re: Microstrategy buys again! on: November 16, 2023, 03:40:52 PM
Ys, Price appreciation in the digital currency market is a bubble and he Microstrategy's is also leading the expansion, another thing is that because the bids and offers are all displayed publicly, other users can jump in while the transaction is pending and complete the deal at a higher or lower price.

I'm pretty sure Microstrategy would make over-the-counter (OTR) purchases rather than just placing bids on exchanges, so the public wouldn't be able to see MSTR's buy orders. Not quite sure what do you mean by other users "completing the deal", but the general rule for the dips in price, after the purchase announcements, was that the market interpreted that as a confirmation of reduced buy pressure, which should have a negative impact on the price.

I wonder if the approval of spot ETFs will have any negative effect on MSTR stock price. The demand for their stock will likely to drop, but the increase in BTC's price could compensate for that.
768  Bitcoin / Press / [2023-11-16] TechCrunch: Taproot Wizards raises $7.5M for its Ordinals project.. on: November 16, 2023, 03:23:29 PM
Super-fresh hit from only an hour ago. Something not price-related for a change. Full article is hidden behind pay-wall, but it might be accessible via web archive sites a bit later.

Taproot Wizards raises $7.5M for its Ordinals project to bring the ‘magic’ back to Bitcoin

https://techcrunch.com/2023/11/16/taproot-wizards-bitcoin-ordinals/

Quote
Though Bitcoin is considered to be the grandfather of crypto, it’s not always talked about for its innovation or pushing the envelope. Some want it to stay that way, but not everyone.

Taproot Wizards, a Bitcoin-focused Ordinals project that was inspired by the original Bitcoin wizard Reddit meme from a decade ago, is trying to change the way the blockchain is perceived. The project has raised $7.5 million in a round led by Standard Crypto, Taproot Wizards co-founders Udi Wertheimer and Eric Wall shared exclusively with TechCrunch+. They declined to disclose a valuation.

“We’ve been in Bitcoin for over a decade. We have these memories of how Bitcoin was. It was very experimental, but it changed,” Wertheimer said. “We want to bring back the culture of building on Bitcoin and make it magical again.”

Other investors include Geometry, Collider Ventures, StarkWare, UTXO Management, Bitcoin Frontier Fund, Masterkey and Newman Capital. The money will be used to rebuild Bitcoin’s “wizard village,” which symbolizes the ecosystem’s desire to compete with other major blockchains like Ethereum and Solana. “We want to enable or introduce a new way of being a Bitcoiner,” Wall said.
769  Economy / Speculation / Re: Microstrategy buys again! on: November 16, 2023, 03:13:10 PM
Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha" who said that Bitcoin is "Rat Poison Squared", has made an investment in a "secret stock", but because it's required to report their investments, he's begging the Securities and Exchange Commission to make the name of that company private.

Why does he want to make the name of the company private? I personally don't know, but how LAUGHABLE would it be for the Bitcoin community if that company is MicroStrategy.

 Cool

Would be a nice twist, but that's highly unlikely. Here's more on that story:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-secret-stock-sales-gm-q3-portfolio-2023-11

The reason for them not wanting to disclose the "secret bet" is probably the fact that they are still accumulating and revealing that would drive the price up. It's not like they're trying to hide something because of being ashamed to admitting they were wrong on bitcoin. The secret bet will be made public eventually.
770  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: November 16, 2023, 03:05:12 PM
This gets a little interesting. Adesanya is the middleweight champion and Perreira is the current LHW champion. In the past, Adesanya failed to achieve double championship when he fought with Blachowiz. One factor was Blachowiz's natural wrestling and weight taking away Adesanya's gas. I see this as Adesanya's chance to win Double Champ. It could be that Adesanya decided to return from his break because he saw someone he had beaten become champion in the division above him.

The problem is, Adesanya lost his title to Strickland. He would have to get the middleweight belt back before even thinking about fighting for the second one.
Currently it's not even clear whether he would get the rematch against Strickland if he was ready to fight, so it's even less likely that he would get a chance to fight Pereira for the LW belt. Pereira surely wouldn't mind that, as he would be a favourite given the latest performances of both and the fact that he wouldn't have to go through such drastic weight cutting.

To bad Bones will try to dictate his own rules and theory wouldnt be proved Cheesy Imho Dana cant force Bones to fight Aspinall. Neither Bones is willing to fight Aspinall Cheesy Imho he seeks for an easy fight, easy money and finish his UFC career. A fight between Stepe and Aspinall also is not what fans would like to watch. I would personally watch his fight against Blaydes, as they have unfinished business. But Blaydes cant have a title fight right now, as he has lost to Pavlovich.

Jones Vs Aspinall won't happen unless there's a big pressure from the community (fans/reporters) combined with small interest in Jones Vs. Stipe bout. Jones cares about 2 things: money and securing his legacy. If he got more by fighting Tom and if the community was clear that they see Aspinall as the real challenge, then who knows, he could change his mind.

I'd much rather see Stipe Vs Aspinall fight soon and then the winner of it fighting Jon, than just watch no action for 8-12 months until Jon recovers.
771  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: 📝[Discussion topic] Overview of Bitcointalk Signature-Ad Campaigns📝 on: November 14, 2023, 06:33:51 PM
I don't think so, there are still quite a lot of active gamblers on Roobet, maybe there is another reason why they reduced the budget to 10x Hero/Legendary which means their budget for campaigns is $700 per week.

My assumption is that Roobet's management might evaluate forum marketing or try other marketing it is still very possible, but believe that Roobet will not leave completely from the forum despite its reputation and large casino.

Maybe they are simply testing whether there will be any significant impact of the massive cut in number of participants. If so, they might decide to increase the number again.
But honestly, it seems like the forum is already saturated with gambling-related signatures, especially the gambling section (due to the minimum posts requirements in that section), and it often looks like all the discussion there is just signature campaign posters trying to promote their sites to each other.

I wish we had more diverse industries advertising via signatures, which is currently dominated by casinos/mixers and maybe some exchanges.
772  Economy / Economics / Re: Entrepreneurship and women on: November 14, 2023, 06:24:41 PM
not all men's businesses can be run by women and vice versa, not all businesses run by women can be run by men, Apart from that, the support from partners, family and relatives that each woman has is very different, while men do have a natural ability to earn money either by working for a company or setting up their own business, so we will always see a very big difference between male entrepreneurs and female entrepreneurs.  However, i see that things like this are actually not that crucial, we won't be able to see equality, especially when it comes to gender.

The reason for those differences are biological and rooted in evolution. From the dawn of time, men had to earn their value by proving their better than everyone else (i.e. to attract females and pass on their genes), while women were born valuable. This resulted with men being much more keen on taking risks, while women usually prefer much safer options (i.e. working in a steady job). And there's nothing wrong with that.
So, in terms of entrepreneurship, men go for it naturally, even everyone around advises them not to, while women need to be encouraged and get support in going that route.
But yeah, since virtually all developed countries are pushing for gender equality (of outcome), then we'll likely to continue seeing special programmes to help women start their businesses, and those differences will be shrinking at least a little bit.
773  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: November 14, 2023, 06:14:19 PM
They would better fight for a retirement belt then Cheesy Dunno how this fight gonna prove that Bones is GOAT and add something to his legacy, but when you are (was) number 1 p4p, beating retired fireman does not give you any point of cool. Winning a guy who hasnt fought almost for 1.5 year, when you are supposed to be best UFC fighter, imho this is not the best way to end career or claim to be someone special.

Bones got injured and gonna return in 8 months (wiki says that). Stepe gonna be almost 42 that time. Dunno what should I expect from that fight. I would better watch Aspinal making his first belt defence against <insert name>.

It almost sounds like it's some sort of Jon's personal ambition rather than anything else, but this ambition is not very ambitious  Grin
Stipe's last fight was in March 2021, so already over 2.5 years ago (time flies fast doesn't it). If Jones needs another 8-10 months to recover, there's a risk that fight will have very low interest.
Imo, the best course would be to get Stipe to fight someone else soon (since he's not officially retired) and if he wins, his fight with Jones would at least make some sense. Although, in theory, the original champion (Jones) should be facing an interim champ (Tom) after the recovery.
774  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 14, 2023, 06:01:53 PM
X, formerly Twitter. Take out all the engineers and content moderators, and that business will be shuttered by regulators within a few months, because AI is terrible at building original products and disinformation classification (ironically, classification was one of the first use cases discovered for neural networks).

Also all AI companies - because AI cannot train itself.

Not a best example, since Twitter sacked huge portion of their staff after Elon Musk took it over (he said it was around 80%) and not only that didn't hurt them, but it turned out to be a good move. It wasn't due to the automation though.
AI should be able to train itself and there are claims that it already is.

Managers. AIs aren't going to just suddenly get a connection to the outside, sensory world and deal with the kind of people-management they have to do.

That's the huge incentive for automation - cut out the human labour and you will no longer need management to look after the workers. Not to mention that it's a known fact (largely exposed by remote working during covid) that huge chunk of the middle management is completely useless and doesn't even have to be replaced by anything.

Sure, there will likely be *some* positions where people will be necessary, but it's all about numbers, if 1 coder equipped with AI can do work of 1000 coders, they'll need to find something else to do, which will be getting harder as automation affects pretty much every industry. And as much as say 10-20 years ago some experts were dismissing the problem, currently there seems to be a consensus that technological unemployment is inevitable. It's not a question of if, but when.
775  Local / Polski / Re: Ogólne rozmowy na temat kampanii sygnatur on: November 14, 2023, 05:38:35 PM
Po raz pierwszy od 190 tygodni jestem bez sygnaturki. Wiecie coś może o wolnych miejscach w waszych kampaniach?

Ah, przykro slyszec, ale na pewno znajdziesz cos nowego.
U mnie na razie nie rekrutuja nowych, ale jakby cos sie zmienilo to dam znac.

o kurcze, a z jakiego powodu zostałeś usunięty?

Mieli duze ciecia i zredukowali liczbe partycypantow do jedynie 10ciu (z chyba 60), i Janusz sie nie zalapal do tej 10tki.

ps. eXch.cx maja tylko 1 wolne miejsce.
776  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Overview of Bitcointalk Signature-Ad Campaigns [Last update: 12-Nov-23] on: November 14, 2023, 05:29:03 PM
Small update on the Roobet campaign - they decided to reduce the number of participants from the original 60 to only 10.
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5233355.msg63152989#msg63152989


On the positive side eXch.cx appears to be open to new participants (probably not for long though) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5464074.0 (edit, it's just 1 slot)
777  Economy / Economics / Re: Entrepreneurship and women on: November 13, 2023, 06:07:18 PM
Making entrepreneurship will not be complete without the role of women in full participation, there are categories that we could have these into and women specifically have their own areas of specializations ones it comes to an enterprise discussion affairs, they like making business and probably this is under the fact that they dislike loosing money, instead they will be fully involved in anything that could make them earn than loosing.

Men and women are different and there's a reason vast majority of entrepreneurs are men. Although there is a large number of women having "their own" businesses, especially in female dominated sectors such as hairdressers and alike, child minders etc, but the vast majority of larger enterprises are started by men. What's funny, there are still people blaming sexism for that disproportion, despite the fact that you don't need anyone's permission to become entrepreneur.
What's also interesting, is that even the small portion of women who decided to go that route is still different than their male counterparts as per OP's stats.
778  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 13, 2023, 05:52:31 PM
I also think the same as you and most people are afraid because it seems like AI was created to replace human work or something else and not as an ease for humans in handling work. Worrying about Al's presence may not be so bad because humans have to think of solutions when things like that start to develop and there are some people who feel very worried that Al's presence could eliminate their jobs in the future. This kind of thing can affect human life in fear because as technology becomes more sophisticated, humans must be able to adapt, instead of feeling worried and not trying to find solutions to their problems.

For me, something like this is not that surprising because if we try to look back at the last few decades there will be an answer. That is, in the past we only heard about technology that was not that sophisticated, but now we are in an era of advanced technology. So there will be a handful of people who will create new innovations and perhaps ordinary people will have difficulty following them or even those of us who understand technology a little more will also have difficulty following them.

OK, how do you personally adapt to situation when AI/automation is developing exponentially and will be able to replace almost all human work? Can you point out few areas that are human labour is essential and non-replaceable?
Do you guys have any concrete arguments other than just wishful thinking? Do you think that elites are acting with your best interest in mind rather than their own? If so, what makes you think so?
If you accuse people of having irrational fear, it would be nice to explain why is it irrational. And if you can't, maybe you're in the wrong.
779  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How Would you Like Your Pension Paid in Bitcoin? on: November 13, 2023, 05:44:20 PM
If you had a pension scheme in Bitcoin, you would definitely be much better position today. It would indeed have been a landmark decision if such an initiative had been taken by the government. But such thinking will not be useful because if the government does not support it. Bitcoin must be validated first. Bitcoin is completely illegal in my country so even thinking of something like this makes no sense. It can be implemented if the government in your country supports it. People get their pension money after working for a long time. Doing something like that would be really profitable for a Bitcoin holder. We want to holt but many times we fail to hold due to various reasons but if a pension scheme account can be opened with Bitcoin then it will undoubtedly be a good idea. Bitcoin pension holders will be ahead from all kinds of holders.

I don't think it's possible to invest your pension funds in Bitcoin even in the countries when Bitcoin/crypto are legal. That's where spot ETFs could be really handy and they could potentially have huge impact on the BTC price.
That being said, there are potentially ways to bypass any bans on investing in Bitcoin, i.e. by investing in companies that have huge exposure to Bitcoin and their stock price moves in line with Bitcoin's. The best example would be Microstrategy, who slowly becomes an effective Bitcoin ETF without officially being one just by virtue of their huge BTC holding.
780  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 13, 2023, 05:24:49 PM
Does appearing weak imply that he didn't take the fight seriously? While the bout against Ngannou may not have been a championship fight, it was an official one. Losing would mean a blemish on Fury's record. Therefore, let's not assume he didn't train hard for Ngannou; that would be disrespectful to a UFC professional transitioning to boxing who came close to defeating Fury. We need to move past that and see how Fury matches up against Usyk. Personally, I still think Fury would come out on top, and I believe the public shares the same sentiment.

Wow, I didn't know that fight was official, I was sure it was organised as an exhibition.
Anyhow, that's the beauty of all fight sports, if often doesn't go the way everyone expects. When you have two strong guys, both with 2 hands and both knowing how to throw a punch - anything can happen. It actually can end up pretty well for Fury. After the fight with Usyk, he could fight Francis again, maybe for even bigger purse. And if he wins decisively, no one will even remember the first fight.
Lets face it, apart from Usyk, there aren't too many exciting names in heavyweight boxing at the moment, so rematch with Francis makes sense. It won't be for the belt though.
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