I remembered this: "I heard some guy in the restroom of a club talking about bitcoins. After a short, extremely confusing conversation, he showed me what he was talking about... "

Y'all think it's a good time to short BTC now ? looks like 30k is inevitable at this point
a quick bounce can fuck you up if you use too much leverage tho

The plan has always been to inflate the debt away. But to do that in the "normal" way, you need to check your deficit, especially when there is growth, and only grow the debt in bad times. The US has stopped doing that, it was particularly glaring under Trump, crazy deficit despite an overheating economy (that was before COVID). I don't get why people "in the know", regardless of cryptos, are not feeling very uncomfortable with what's going on. It's clearly the case of the Fed, that why it's becoming hawkish, but if only the Fed is concerned, it won't be enough.

The majority of the leverage in the market now is large shorts. We know this because price collapsed and the leverage didn’t. If we get a rally it could trigger the mother of all short squeezes. I’m talking $10k candles.

I am always trying to attack my biases.  And right now I am biased towards us not entering a crypto winter, as I have recently posted.

BUT.  I think I have found a scenario that might tend to undo my optimism...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-reflect-growing-unease-over-high-inflation-11641409628

Inflation has the us Federal Reserve talking seriously about quantitative tightening.  This means higher interest rates.  And I think that could mean a few things:

1.  The stock market is a goner if they do this.  The reason we continue to see crazy upwards stonks is in great part due to the fact that they keep printing money and lowering interest rates.  This could take some of the wind out of those sales.  And those prices are so bubblicious already that it's hard to imagine anything but a bloodbath.

2.  Bitcoin is currently seen (by most) as the king of risk investments still... so I would expect Bitcoin might follow the stock market.

In some ways it's hard to say what they might do because they have painted themselves into a corner.  Crashing the already limping enconomy in the name of stopping inflation?  Or keep printing and shift into negative interest rates causing absolute explosions in risk assets and making a can of beans cost $4.

Hmm...  I kind of wish I had not had this thought... I was preferring the bullish mania I was in before...

last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

BUMPER STICKER!

And if not…. Then we just make the first yellow line a longer one…. So always there will be a pattern  

With that last part in mind, I was personally doing a fair bit of Bitcoin shopping last night. (not financial advice of course) Why? Because we are at massive macro support, the invalidation for the idea is so clear, and this is the last level that makes sense to do so from a risk-reward standpoint.

The overweighing factor for the crypto market and all risk-on assets is the fear of monetary tightening and the effect that will have on markets. This is the trade-off of Bitcoin becoming an institutionalized asset - we will see it have a stronger correlation to macro and traditional markets.

Stablecoin margined open interest on Binance specifically is still near the highest it’s ever been. Even after this recent price action which did wipe out a few hundred million dollars in open interest, still a long way to go.

You’ll notice I haven’t talked about on-chain much in the last month or so either on here or on Twitter. The reason is because when open interest is built up so much, derivatives data matters most.

I really recommend VR to everyone.  the "metaverses" you see in the news are pretty much garbage, really interesting stuff is going on right now that is years ahead of anything big corps can put out.  You can have actual facial expressions, emotions, eye tracking, face tracking, full body tracking, haptic response vests, haptic gloves/hands, etc.  your brain thinks its real....so its real.  welcome to the matrix.  You can have a fully wireless setup with 10+point tracking and dance in VR and its pretty awesome.  like https://youtu.be/kqNzBrvEk8s?t=667

I hear ya, bullish divergence everywhere, but not -yet-in the PA,  brutal PA if you ask me, how long can one be shaking the tree?
I have the feeling 2021 PA is so slow... strechted over weeks/months

just one? is there a famous case on the interwebs?

@WillClementeIII
Someone just aggressively shorted the bottom trying to trigger a long liquidation cascade.

They failed and are now covering their short.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1478444415526055937?s=21

I am actually kind of wishing that some entities that are not sufficiently covering their exposure to bitcoin by engaging in some kinds of fractional reserve practices
-snip-
get reckt as fuck..

I still say that the next 1-9 months are critical^tm.

Currently covid positive (and my son too). Light flu symptoms.. nothing to worry, it seems.

Suffering from power outages in my 3rd word city of Buenos Aires.. damn heat waves all week long.. isolated due to covid.. and the corn doing nothing..  what could be worse?