That is a good point, I haven't really thought about the whole bluffing point and how the AI would approach it. In general ChatGPT or AI in general can give advantages to any player as they will show us the optimal gameplay. The problem is that players are not playing optimal, and if all the other players at the table are not following the optimal strategy than we might be losing if we follow the optimal strategy blindly. I remember a poker interview with some professionals that said they are actually struggling more when playing against beginners than when playing against regulars. In case they face players who have a decent strategy it's much easier to take advantage of them, and when a player makes a lot of random decisions it's much harder to win. ChatGPT would probably face similar problems to a certain extent and would need time to adjust his strategy. How long would it take for the AI to realise they are getting bluffed too often? And will the strategy immediately change again? Because then the players could try and exploit that. 

You are absolutely right, inflation is the biggest risk to our money we are facing at the moment. It makes no sense to put our money into a savings account with 1-2% interest rate, while the inflation rate is at 10%. We need to invest our money to try and save the value and purchasing power of our money. Crypto currencies is a nice alternative to stocks that provide benefits to our overall portfolio and will lower our risk profile. The most important step is to realise that we need to become proactive with investing and start buying our first assets. It's never too late to start investing, there will always be new opportunities around the corner we can take advantage of. 

I am not sure in which city you usually play and how big the casinos are where you enjoy Roulette, but if you are playing one of the large casinos then I wouldn't worry about cheating or rigged games. In most countries the gambling industry is highly regulated and there are government inspections that will check the casinos on a constant basis on how well their games are operating. Roulette by itself is already a game that makes a lot of money for the casino. The house edge ensure that with enough games there will a constant profit. It just doesn't make any sense for one of the big casinos to risk their reputation by rigging the Roulette tables. If the news would come out it would be a huge scandal and the casino would be ruined. Nobody would play again at a casino that rigs it's games. 

It's true that there is a risk with the martingale strategy that can lead to very big losses. Especially when starting with large initial bet amounts like 2,000 USD for example. If we can't cover a losing streak of 4-5 losses in a row then we used our strategy wrong. There are always winning and losing streaks in gambling and it's important to account for them in our strategies. The main advantage of the martingale strategy is that one single win will cover all our previous losses. You either like or hate strategy, there isn't much in between. People who like fixed strategies that tell us exactly how much to bet and when will be more in favour for martingale, than people who prefer to be more flexible with their bets. It's important to understand to understand all the risks before and not fall in the believe that martingale is a save way to make guaranteed profits.

Yes institutions use technical analysis for their trading signals. There are basically two camps of traders, one that focus more on fundamentals and the overall economic picture, and the ones that use past trading data to analyse for trends. Most companies these days will likely use a mix of the two and don't focus solely on one category. It's true that there is market manipulation, but I think in most cases it's only short term manipulation because it takes a lot of money and effort to pump or dumb prices for a long period of time. In any case it's advisable to always check our trading strategies and see how reliable the reading signals are. I would never rely on only one indicator to give me a trend. A mix of short, medium and long term indicators is the best way to not fall for a manipulated price.

Damn what a round of semi finals that was yesterday, there was so much action in the two matches. I really thought that NaVi would pull it off, going into overtime two times on the first map the game could have went either way. Surprisingly that was Heroic picks for a map and then on Ancient NaVi got completely destroyed. Simple tried really hard, but it wasn't enough. At least Vitality managed to pull through and I didn't lose all my money yesterday. The game of Cloud9 vs Vitality was insane, I think this was the best match dupreeh ever had on Vertigo. He carried his team alone into overtime. The first map Inferno was Vitalitys pick and they lost it not even close, only to make one of the biggest comeback in CSGO history on Vertigo. They went from 12-1, to 12-14 without losing a single round. After such a run Cloud9 was broken and Vitality should be hyped for today to win the tournament. On paper Heroic is the better and should be winning today, but the two teams already played twice against each other and each team won one time. It's going to be a final with 7 Danish players, so they all know each. I am probably going with Vitality for the final today and hope that they can get another hyped match like yesterday. 

I haven't used ChatGPT myself and don't know how it could be used in a gambling setup. Don't you need some coding experience to make sure the AI does the right thing? There are also thousands of TV footage over the years from big tournaments that could be used to feed the AI with data. One question would be what kind of computer do you need for the AI to analyse so much data. On my old machine this would probably take a lifetime. Maybe NASA can offer us some supercomputers to run the data. As long as the AI can read the life gameplay data it could give us some strategy on how to play. But as most of the big tournaments are being played offline, I don't see any risk of AI taking over here.  There has been TV coverage of poker tournaments for more than 30 years, they have a lot of security in place so that people don't cheat. Even with the best strategy there is still randomness involved in poker, the AI doesn't know the exact cards of our opponents and therefore can't give us a 100% winning strategy. To a certain extent there will always be luck involved in poker.

This sounds exactly like life in my country, except that prices didn't only go up a little, but by a lot. Reading that it seems that my country was more affected by the war than Russia. Which is a bit crazy, but could be true due to the heavy sanctions that always hit all countries involved. To be honest I don't know many Russians and don't believe the newspapers anymore as they are saying the same thing for a over a year and it doesn't seem to be true. The few Russians I know either left the country in their childhood and don't know anything anymore, or I met them in university and they are living all abroad now. It's really hard to make an honest assessment when we don't have access to independent news. Most articles I see these days is propaganda by one of the two sides.

It's definitely possible for bitcoin to reach 60k USD this year. April isn't fully over and we still have 2/3 of the year to come. In the first few months bitcoin managed to go from 16k to 30k USD, which is almost a 100% return. Another 100% return would already bring us close to a new ATH. The real question is how realistic is such a scenario. During the summer we usually don't see big gains because many people are on vacation. That's why I would expect another really to come at the end of the year. Maybe in November we can get an early Christmas gift. The main drivers are global economic recovery and the halfing next year. Personally I am also not so optimistic and would rather expect a price around the 45k USD level at the end of the year.

While it's true that there are some differences in stock trading cs crypto currencies reading, o don't think that volatility is so two different between the two. When it comes to the stock market there are medium to small size stocks that have a high volatility and easily move 5% in a few days. This either die to the high risk involved in the company, or the small number of shares publicly available to trade. In the blue chip market  however there are some large companies which have a very small risk profile and won't be moving more than 1-2% in a week or two. In the crypto market we have the exact same, there are some high risk alt coins which can easily move 5% and then there are more popular coins which don't move so much. Both in the stock and in the crypto market the general market risk is the main driver of price changes and needs to be monitored. That's why I think that a successful stock trader will do good in the crypto world and vice versa.

In my country we have a huge retirement system run by the government which is going to fail eventually and nobody of the younger generations can rely on it. The problem is that our system is not capital funded and relies upon a larger number of tax payers than elderly people. But with the changing demographics there is no way that in 10-15 years the workforce can maintain the payments for the elderly people. The only solution we have today is private retirement insurance or build an investment portfolio on our own and keep it until we retire. Retirement funds usually have very strict investment regulations and will not invest in risky crypto currencies. That's why it's probably better to save money on our own. With time frames of 30 years until retirement there can be huge returns with the right investments. It's all about making long term decisions at a young age and let the money grow over time.

Being insolvent usually means that we don't have any money left to pay our bills. In my opinion this would also include crypto currencies. Depending on how important the bills are we should convert our crypto coins to fiat to pay the bills. Imagine we can't pay our electricity or heating bills, or even worse we are getting kicked out of apartment because we can't pay the rent. What good do our crypto coins if we are living on the street. Bankruptcy is usually a legal term that is used do try and get debt free after some time. The judge wants to know all our assets and we could try and hide out crypto coins from the debtors. But if words get out of our hidden wealth we could face jail time. That's why all our assets needs to be included when going for a debt relief program.

It's true that just knowing the strength of one team over another team is not enough to get an edge in sports betting. Just by looking at the odds from the bookmakers we already see who is the favourite in the upcoming match, but there are so many factors to consider when placing our bets. In my opinion it's not really possible to learn everything about one particular sports in a few days, it takes a long time to really get know a league, the teams and their players. When we play our favourite sports, watch the games of our home team in the stadium or TV we learn a lot over the years. It is important not to fall into the trap of wishful thinking where we think that our favourite team has much higher winning chances than in reality. We need to be critical when evaluating the strength of different teams. And spending so much time to learn about the sport and the league, we really must like it to stay interested long term. That is why I only bet on a few sport types that I really enjoy and played myself in the past.

Semi Finals are up today in the IEM Rio 2023 tournament, with Cloud9 facing Vitality in the first match. I am a big fan of apEX and ZwyOo and think they will win against Cloud9 today. It's definitely going to be a close match that could go either way. But Vitaity managed to beat FaZe 2-0 the last time they played, while Cloud9 actually lost 0-2 against FaZe. The second match will be NaVi vs Heroic, NaVi is my clear favourite here. Heroic could even be a bit stronger than NaVi on paper as they won most of their last games. But the last time the two teams actually met was during the ESL Pro League Season 17 in March and Navi won 2-0. That is why I will go with NaVi to reach the finals today. And the grand final tomorrow will probably be Vitality vs Navi, which is going to be a nice game that could also go either way.

No, unfortunately there is no safe method to make a constant return in gambling. You are looking to make 5% return every day without risks? That is unrealistic, even just making 1% risk free is not going to work. The main issue here is that there is randomness involved in all the casino games. There is no strategy that will make us money in all cases. There will be days where you are losing money and then there will be days where you are winning. Also the house edge makes sure that the casino is going to win a little more than they lose long term, so there isn't much chance for us to be constantly winning in gambling.

I am baffled on how big still the corruption problem is in today's world. With all the technological advances we are still not able to make sure that people in power act trustworthy and in good faith. There are basically two ways to get rid of corruption, the first one is your proposal to reach kids at a young age. It sounds nice if we could get only moral superior people in a country where nobody would even consider bribing others or accepting a bribe. The question is how realistic is it to teach all children that, or will there always be some bad kids trying to take the easy way. The second solution would be to get much better oversight and increase the punishment for corruption. Increasing prison sentences is probably not an option as many countries try to get criminals more quickly back into society to have more taxpayers. So the last real solution would be to create more oversight and leave one person in charge of major decisions. The problem here is that all the politicians who accepted bribes in the past will never vote for stronger laws with higher oversight.

If a friend asked me how much he should invest in bitcoins for his first investment I would tell him to use as much money as he can afford to lose. 30 USD would be better than 10 USD, and 100 USD would be better than 30. It all comes down to his financial situation and what free money he has available. The best situation to buy bitcoins would be to make constant purchases every month of 50 or 100 USD at least. Another important thing is to remain realistic about the future growth of Bitcoins. When you buy only 30 USD it's not like you expect to make a profit of 50 USD in a few weeks. The times of making high returns overnight are over.

While in my understanding crypto currencies are real currencies, there is still a difference between forex trading and crypto trading. The price change between two fiat currencies like USD and EUR is given from the interest rates in their countries. As long as you have the chance two get risk free investments in government bonds on the country their future value of the currency is fixed. This link doesn't exist in the crypto world because we have no bond market behind it. Let me give you an example of interlinked and fixed the currency pair trading. Let's say for simplicity Euro and the Dollar both trade at 1/1 at the moment, so they have the exact same value. But you get 5% interest in USA government bonds in 1 year and only 1% in Europe. That means that the US dollar has to go up 4% in value relatively to the Euro, because you can convert all your Euros today into USD, buy government bonds to make 5% return and already sell futures contract today to convert your USD back to Euro in 1 year. Because of such pair trading there is am equilibrium in the forex market which we don't have in the crypto markets yet.

I think this comes from what kind of sports you are around when growing up. Football and basketball are two sports that are the most common and where being played the most during high school. I even played them myself in a team for a few years. And went regularly to the stadium with my dad and uncle to watch our home team play. So in university whenever my country was playing in a big tournament everybody would bet on the matches. I kind of grew into sports betting and never really considered to bet on sports that I have no clue about. For me sports betting is a way to try and make better predictions than the majority. If I have no clue about the sport I have to rely on the odds from the bookmakers. But when I am familiar with the sport I can try and take advantage of cheap bets.

Yes definitely, metaverse is going to be the next big thing in gambling. It's going to have a much bigger than AI in my opinion. The big difference between physical casinos and online casinos is the social interaction with other gamblers. The games we play online and offline are the same, it's the atmosphere which is different. Anybody who has played in Las Vegas knows the excitement when entering a huge casino where everybody gambles. When playing from home it's more more about our own gambling and making money than having a good time. Having the chance to interact other gamblers and watch how they win or lose is going to be a huge evolution of the gambling industry. Once VR setups become more common it's going to be a lot of new possibilities for casinos.