Martin Armstrong Discussion

[jehst]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

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[OROBTC]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

Well, if Hillary wins, then who knows WHEN "peak government" would hit. 

Until I have a better handle on Armstrong's predictions (and I have been just too lazy to dig in), I will just follow him rather than make any investments decisions based on his writings...

But, I think that caution and prudence is proper with our national debt(s) so high.  2016 might be a year to be cautious.*



* Having written that, watch the S&P 500 go up 25%...

[tabnloz]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

[Risk Mgmt]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

What are good bear ETFs against DOW JONEs?
That's were the game is .... Play the swings back and forth

[sidhujag]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

What are good bear ETFs against DOW JONEs?
That's were the game is .... Play the swings back and forth

FAZ is one I remember.. 3x leverage..
not to hold over one day usually

[jehst]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

It's a dud because it seems that government is still getting bigger.  2015.75 was supposed to be the peak.

[OROBTC]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

What are good bear ETFs against DOW JONEs?
That's were the game is .... Play the swings back and forth

FAZ is one I remember.. 3x leverage..
not to hold over one day usually

FAZ?!  Danger, Will Robinson!  I lost a fair amount of money in that, even though (later) in time I was right.  Those leveraged ETFs, as you hint at, are terrible ideas if you expect something to move sharply, but you don't know when...

The trouble with holding the "FAZs" for just a day or so, is that you are day trading.  Which I already know I would be terrible at.

Also, I wonder if in the event of a BIGGER crash than 2008 whether or not the FAZs and other derivatives would pay off...  They might just take your money and run...  

Corzined!  

[sidhujag]

In other words lets push shtf until 2020 to try to milk people for more money

Well, yeah, especially after 2015.75 turned out to be a dud. It appears the "peak in government" might actually happen next year.

I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

What are good bear ETFs against DOW JONEs?
That's were the game is .... Play the swings back and forth

FAZ is one I remember.. 3x leverage..
not to hold over one day usually

FAZ?!  Danger, Will Robinson!  I lost a fair amount of money in that, even though (later) in time I was right.  Those leveraged ETFs, as you hint at, are terrible ideas if you expect something to move sharply, but you don't know when...

The trouble with holding the "FAZs" for just a day or so, is that you are day trading.  Which I already know I would be terrible at.

Also, I wonder if in the event of a BIGGER crash than 2008 whether or not the FAZs and other derivatives would pay off...  They might just take your money and run...  

Corzined!  

yea resets everyday.. imo better to buy puts on a spike because better chance it comes back down then go up.. (take half the money off the table and let it ride)

[trollercoaster]

Armstrong has been spot on, you guys are not looking at it holistically.

Go ahead and purchase some real estate in London if you really think it's a good idea to "do the opposite of what this guy says"

Also, happy new year & remember when you starting thinking everyone is equal and everyone deserves their fair share that's when you've had enough drugs.

[OROBTC]

...

(Copy of my post in another thread, but probably relevant here)


When you get time, TPTB (I know, LOL...), let me know and I will send you my new Public Key (GnuPG) if emailing me via PGP encryption is of interest to you.

Same for you trollercoaster.  Anyone else, PM me, and we'll see.  Maybe I'll invite CoinCube to join in as well, maybe AFTER I get better at using this...

I have a new website that I am working on, my first one.  Right now there is nothing at the Home Page, in the next week or two or three I will start adding material for public enjoyment (a GnuPG tutorial (!), gold information (coin sizes, etc.), Peru photos, some basic Bitcoin info, etc.).

I will also (likely) have a "club" for those interested in "alternative investment", privacy ("for Dummies"), Bitcoin, and related topics.  NO, I will not ask for money, smile,,,

And, I will fairly soon set up a mySQL database with our company sales info (private of course).  Maybe other databases too should I go off in THAT direction...

So, there is nothing there now, that will slowly change.

Once I have an acceptable Home Page, I will announce my website.

[trollercoaster]

Sure, but I have never used GnuPG, are you going incognito or something? 

[OROBTC]

Sure, but I have never used GnuPG, are you going incognito or something? 

Naah!  I have a big, big project (by my standards) in mind for this year.  I want to builds some skills, and launch my new website that I hope will be of use.  Non-commercial.

Encryption is a subject that should be more widely available to anyone who wants to use it.  Gold information should be out there.  LOTS of other information should be out there, easy to get as well.  I want to do my part.

Why, even our pal TPTB says that we should enter The Knowledge Age.  This year will be my Year of Entry!

[THX 1138]

...I've heard him saying many times 2015.75 is the beginning of the downward spiral, so I don't think of it as a dud. It was a very juicy soundbite / headline though. Everyone expected it to be precise to the day a'la the 87 stock plunge, but that not occurring doesn't invalidate the theme - 2015.75 into 2020 is a descent into sovereign debt crisis.

In saying that, I also don't bet the house on his forecasts, just an interested observer.

MA from Oct 13th, 2015: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38055

The other side of 2015.75 still looks like a sharp cliff going into next year. From an economic viewpoint, the economy turned down Wed., Sept. 30, 2015, on a global scale coinciding also with our Cycle of War on the international model. We should see the economy turn downward into a steeper recession moving into Wed., Sept. 28, 2016, which is the next turning point on the Economic Confidence Model followed thereafter by Tues., Oct. 24, 2017. Caution is advisable for it appears we should see an overall recessionary trend emerge on a global scale this time.

...I have a big, big project (by my standards) in mind for this year.  I want to builds some skills, and launch my new website that I hope will be of use.  Non-commercial.

Encryption is a subject that should be more widely available to anyone who wants to use it.  Gold information should be out there.  LOTS of other information should be out there, easy to get as well.  I want to do my part.

Why, even our pal TPTB says that we should enter The Knowledge Age.  This year will be my Year of Entry!

Hey, I agree. Good luck with it, and I'll be interested to see the result when you're done.

[trollercoaster]

Sure, but I have never used GnuPG, are you going incognito or something?  

Naah!  I have a big, big project (by my standards) in mind for this year.  I want to builds some skills, and launch my new website that I hope will be of use.  Non-commercial.

Encryption is a subject that should be more widely available to anyone who wants to use it.  Gold information should be out there.  LOTS of other information should be out there, easy to get as well.  I want to do my part.

Why, even our pal TPTB says that we should enter The Knowledge Age.  This year will be my Year of Entry!

Cool, got to keep one step ahead of the G20 parasites, sounds interesting & I look forward to seeing it  

[Risk Mgmt]

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Just play the ups and downs ... Not hold too long
And timing is key
In and out take small increments

[Risk Mgmt]

Somewhat cryptic is the way Martin writes like those feds
around the fringes.

I have learn to better understand him and to piece together useful information – At first read im be left going, “what did he just say?  Considering in previous writing he said somethin different.

I suppose thats how economists talk/ write

[THX 1138]

Today from Armstrong - "Is The Recession Starting?"

Right at the end he says: "...The ultimate rise in stocks in the years ahead (after a correction sling-shot move) will unfold simply as capital tries to secure its future by getting out of government bonds and banks." http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/41421

So, after looking at an earlier post of his from 19th December, I guess we can presume it's the latter scenario below?

"...There are only TWO possibilities which will be determined from the closings. Either we see a 2017 high in a Phase Transition now, which typically will not last beyond 13 months, or we continue to base into 2017 and then we completely invert meaning the high is pushed off into 2019/2020 with the bottom of the ECM." http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40638

Anyone got any further input?

[OROBTC]

Today from Armstrong - "Is The Recession Starting?"

Right at the end he says: "...The ultimate rise in stocks in the years ahead (after a correction sling-shot move) will unfold simply as capital tries to secure its future by getting out of government bonds and banks." http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/41421

So, after looking at an earlier post of his from 19th December, I guess we can presume it's the latter scenario below?

"...There are only TWO possibilities which will be determined from the closings. Either we see a 2017 high in a Phase Transition now, which typically will not last beyond 13 months, or we continue to base into 2017 and then we completely invert meaning the high is pushed off into 2019/2020 with the bottom of the ECM." http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40638

Anyone got any further input?

THX 1138

Left somewhat unsaid by Armstrong is whether or not there are some things "that are different this time".  Maybe that's why he does not make hard & fast predictions, there my be new factors nowadays that are not in his model...

If I had to guess, I would agree with Armstrong (and some other observers), at least for 2016: that the US$ will be strong for a while as people all over the world flee somewhat to put their money here.  Stocks?  Wow, I don't know, fundamentals seem to be kind of bad.  Now does not seem to be a good time to own capital assets (like chip factories or railroads).  Later on might be a different story as the economy recovers...  IF it recovers...

I also think that a DEFLATION is more likely in the short-term than inflation or hyperinflation (which would occur after a deflation).

[Risk Mgmt]

He just poublished new reports .... The Real Estate Cycle 2015 looks nice but too pricey for me

Id like to get guidance on Canadian Real Estate trends for newxt 5 yr if possible.

2015 War Cycle report --- i trust its same as 2014 version but more updates.

[valiz]

He just poublished new reports .... The Real Estate Cycle 2015 looks nice but too pricey for me

Wow, these predictions cost money?