Martin Armstrong Discussion

[THX 1138]

Excellent, informed contributions today; particularly from altcoinUK and tabnloz. The thread is back on track. Very useful for laymen such as myself to gain some insight. Cheers

With such volatility and uncertainty it is easy to succumb to paralysis. I'm currently all out (other than cash) and weighing up options before the expected great unravelling.

Anyone got any opinion on the current state of Icelandic banking - if it is truly purged - and if it might be worth considering as a relatively safe haven for an offshore account (from UK)? I was looking into it as one of my "hedges".

[1714682247]

1714682247

[1714682247]

1714682247

[Risk Mgmt]

DGP, an ETF that doubles the price of gold     - should anyone have any interest.

Silver looks nice under $14.

OIL hope it stays flat

Anything interesting ETF recommendations -- would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

MA Fanboy  

If you are interested in gold as a long-term & secure investment, I do NOT recommend the gold ETFs or gold miners.

I recommend physical gold itself.  Hide it well.

"If you can't stand in front of it, and defend it with a gun, then you don't OWN it."
-- adapted from Ann Barnhardt

.

I'm trying to figure out best investment long-term for my kids education. From Condo to Canadian RRSP or whatnot
Considering what's ahead time wise .... So confused....

Risk Mgmt

You can always edge into gold, buying a little bit at a time.  It's relatively easy (at a good coin shop) to buy from 0.1 oz (say $135 now) up to 1 oz ($1180 or so, note gold "spot" is at about $1090, you almost always have to pay a premium).  And you do not have to go "All Inn" (buy gold only).

A condo, or other real estate perfectly fine too.  Farmland.  There are lots of "Hard Assets", but you have to examine your own circumstances to decide.

"Diversification is my middle name!"

THANK YOU OROBT - will kep in mind.

[Risk Mgmt]

One thing that needs to be accounted for globally is rising and shrinking Populations from MACRO GLOBAL view and also regional view.

In addition, we need to also take into account TECHNOLOGY and its impact on employment worldwide and impact on company bottomline.

Companies are making more money now as productions costs go down....energy is down and technology is replacing human labor.   With Corporate powers profiting and average worker working two jobs...less tax being paid to govt'
and MA thus makes good MACRO points.

[Risk Mgmt]

FANBOY here 


Todays MA Blog

We warned that 2015.75 was the turning point to the start of BIG BANG. As we now have entered the down wave on the Economic Confidence Model, things will begin to heat up.

I have warned that our current crisis in 2016 has been created by the total mismanagement of government by politicians. This year will mark the beginning of the problem of governments NEVER paying off debt. Instead, they roll it and add to it year after year. Well, 2016 will mark an outrageous roll as the equivalent of nearly half of the USA’s national debt has to be refunded. Major economies need to raise about $7.1 trillion U.S. dollars to refinance debt. Germany alone has around €203 billion euros of new debt that it has to sell, which is a considerable challenge in view of the fragile global economy. Welcome to BIG BANG.

If everyone owes money to everyone...who exactly is the primary lender?

[OROBTC]

FANBOY here  


Todays MA Blog

We warned that 2015.75 was the turning point to the start of BIG BANG. As we now have entered the down wave on the Economic Confidence Model, things will begin to heat up.

I have warned that our current crisis in 2016 has been created by the total mismanagement of government by politicians. This year will mark the beginning of the problem of governments NEVER paying off debt. Instead, they roll it and add to it year after year. Well, 2016 will mark an outrageous roll as the equivalent of nearly half of the USA’s national debt has to be refunded. Major economies need to raise about $7.1 trillion U.S. dollars to refinance debt. Germany alone has around €203 billion euros of new debt that it has to sell, which is a considerable challenge in view of the fragile global economy. Welcome to BIG BANG.

If everyone owes money to everyone...who exactly is the primary lender?

Other than indirectly, our family has very little debt.  "Indirectly" means "our share" of the US National Debt ($20 tn), but everybody owes as much as we do.  We (my family) are net creditors, but may not get paid (our bank account could be bailed-in)...

*   *   *

Risk Mgmt, that is one thing you can do on behalf of your children (if you have already not done so):

Pay off debt!  If you already have, you are in very good shape.

[altcoinUK]

I understand your view (the market has been really tricky and vicious for some time) and better stay on the sideline if unsure. But my main problem with Armstrong predictions in general and 2015.75 especially is why put so much emphasis on governments bonds and public debt when it seems that right now the problem is in private debt, stock markets, oil, china, emerging countries.

Armstrong argues the performance of economy is mainly determined by confidence and the confidence in government determines whether the money flow to public or private assets. That is his model.
Other models argue that the economy is controlled by Jesus Christ, the stars and Moon, Mohammed, UFOs, Elvis Presley who is still alive, etc. I think ultimately it is matter of choice and what your personality, intellect and interest lead you to believe. He built his model by analysing historical cycles of confidence and relating confidence to public finance, and he believes history proves that when confidence is gone in government then hyper inflation, recession and the crash is in place. Just like it happened with the ancient Roman state from AD 250, the state finance of France before the 1789 revolution, the collapse of public finance of German state after the brief Bolshevik revolution. I don't think only his model is the valid one, other economy models could be quite correct as well, but in my opinion his economy model, logic and his assumption that human nature hasn't been changing makes a lot of sense.
We will see whether he is right or wrong terms of the importance of public finance. It is very possible the shills of Goldman Sachs in government (the Australian PM is the last) as well as in the central banks all over the world  - to addition to the quantitative easing money jamboree - will come up with further "innovations", and then the collapse will be postponed. Who knows? I am afraid "THE BOYS" (i.e. Goldman Sachs crooks and the likes) could manipulate the system to an entirely new level by introducing some new rigging mechanism. Who thought some nonsense like quantitative easing is possible at all, but those wankers did find out that solution.
Anyway, the beauty of the stock market that we can profit from either the bounces and dips, and as for me, Armstrong can help tremendously in that process.

So 2015.75 is in 2016. Makes sense.
And I'm very worried about Germany needing to refinance 203 billions this year  

No, he hasn't changes his model and timing, that is your interpretation. Plus, please note he never said the world will end on the 1st of October, 2015. All he said is that he confidence in government will be peeked by 2015.75, and then slowly but surely the money will flow to private assets.

 

[Risk Mgmt]

Regarding this 2015.75 or whatever date MA indicated.

PEAK IN gOVT aspects.

One thing MSM and general crowd is not paying attention to while markets crashing is on top of everyones mind is this:

Experts: Oregon standoff may be small, but it’s just the tip of a growing militia iceberg

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article53351000.html#storylink=cpy

Militia movement seeing huge growth, experts say...  Grass root movements maybe?

[marcus_of_augustus]

chinese government has lost control of their financial markets so that's in line with MA's timeline.

[hdbuck]

chinese government has lost control of thier financial markets so that's in line with MA's timeline.

[valiz]

chinese government has lost control of their financial markets so that's in line with MA's timeline.

http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stocks-open-higher-as-chinese-markets-stabilize;-dax-up-0.59-379209

Investing.com - European stocks opened higher on Friday, as Chinese markets stabilized after the country’s new stock market circuit breaker introduced only on Monday was suspended as the system failed to reduce market volatility.

[macsga]

I find it pretty interesting that M. Armstrong has included a new title for the upcoming decade in his Economic Confidence Model. Constant re-fracturing of the global economy by a series of events (oil prices, stock market crashes, production halt, bad economic data, sovereign debt) may gave him a hint about the Internet's (and Bitcoin?) role in the upcoming years.

The article focuses on the Maunder Minimum and global cooling theory, but look above on the right of the chart... Am I the only one who didn't notice so far or this is a new tag?


http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35071

[altcoinUK]

chinese government has lost control of their financial markets so that's in line with MA's timeline.

http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stocks-open-higher-as-chinese-markets-stabilize;-dax-up-0.59-379209

Investing.com - European stocks opened higher on Friday, as Chinese markets stabilized after the country’s new stock market circuit breaker introduced only on Monday was suspended as the system failed to reduce market volatility.

What are you actually trying to say with that link? Are you saying the market is just fine, the governments and central banks aren't panicking and Armstrong is incorrect about the whole issue?

If you understand the stock market and trade DJIA, SPX or in fact any stocks then I am sure you have noticed the 5 years free FED money driven jamboree is over, the much anticipated Santa rally didn't happen and now the market is volatile.

[altcoinUK]

Armstrong posted today "Once a government ATTEMPTS to use its Iron Fist to control the Invisible Hand; sorry, the Invisible hand wins every time. " at http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01

I was wondering anybody has noticed that Armstrong often mention this battle of government intervention vs invisible hand. The invisible hand I guess means the free market dynamics and the confidence driven market events such as panic sell-offs when the market crash, and Armstrong says there is no way the government could prevent such market events, the government have never ever succeeded in that and never will.
It will be interesting to see what is going to happen this time when central banks/government take the market manipulation and interventions to an entirely new level. Soon we will see and that will be the ultimate test of Armstrong's economic model.

[hdbuck]

Armstrong posted today "Once a government ATTEMPTS to use its Iron Fist to control the Invisible Hand; sorry, the Invisible hand wins every time. " at http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2016/01

I was wondering anybody has noticed that Armstrong often mention this battle of government intervention vs invisible hand. The invisible hand I guess means the free market dynamics and the confidence driven market events such as panic sell-offs when the market crash, and Armstrong says there is no way the government could prevent such market events, the government have never ever succeeded in that and never will.
It will be interesting to see what is going to happen this time when central banks/government take the market manipulation and interventions to an entirely new level. Soon we will see and that will be the ultimate test of Armstrong's economic model.

The 'invisible hand' is Adam Smith's concept: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand

[Risk Mgmt]

Regarding 2015.75  -- PEAK IN gOVT DATE PROPOSED BY MA

Experts: Oregon standoff may be small, but it’s just the tip of a growing militia iceberg

Read here: http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article53351000.html#storylink=cpyMilitia movement seeing huge growth, experts say...  Grass root movements maybe?

Hence the worries by Gov't about Gun control incase its gets out of hand.

[THX 1138]

For those of you who've been following TPTB_need_war's coin project, and weren't already aware, he's dropped a bit of a bombshell today over at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1219023.msg13486684#msg13486684

He's created a new thread: DECENTRALIZED crypto currency (including Bitcoin) is a delusion (any solutions?)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319681.msg13488328#msg13488328

[altcoinUK]

Several posts from Armstrong today with regards to the market, but not a lot actual pointers for traders. As always - nobody knows what's going to happen in the short term. As many analysts as many opinions. Armstrong,  Caldaro, McClellan, Avi Gilburt, etc. all say different things, but of course nobody is having a magic wand to project the market.  

Soros announced that he thinks the market will be going down, he is bearish. That normally means that the old machinator is closed his shorts and and he's already loaded with long positions. I am agreeing with McClellan and expecting a 2008 scenario. So far so good and I see no reason to panic and close my short positions on DJIA and SPX just yet, instead of I am just moving down the stop losses. Russel 2000 is already below the August lows and I expect DOW will be doing the same. Armstrong's lowest support is DJIA 13.5k. I doubt it can ever go as low, but there are definitely interesting times ahead on the market.




 

[sidhujag]

Several posts from Armstrong today with regards to the market, but not a lot actual pointers for traders. As always - nobody knows what's going to happen in the short term. As many analysts as many opinions. Armstrong,  Caldaro, McClellan, Avi Gilburt, etc. all say different things, but of course nobody is having a magic wand to project the market.  

Soros announced that he thinks the market will be going down, he is bearish. That normally means that the old machinator is closed his shorts and and he's already loaded with long positions. I am agreeing with McClellan and expecting a 2008 scenario. So far so good and I see no reason to panic and close my short positions on DJIA and SPX just yet, instead of I am just moving down the stop losses. Russel 2000 is already below the August lows and I expect DOW will be doing the same. Armstrong's lowest support is DJIA 13.5k. I doubt it can ever go as low, but there are definitely interesting times ahead on the market.




 

Last time soros made a call it was gold at the peak 1920 or whatever right befofe margin changes and we all know what happemed after that.. So i wouldnt bet against him.
Great job on the short.. I was looking at faz at 38 but coukdnt get myself back into equities, too bad.

[altcoinUK]

Last time soros made a call it was gold at the peak 1920 or whatever right befofe margin changes and we all know what happemed after that.. So i wouldnt bet against him.

Thanks for sharing your opinion and you could be right. He could be applying reverse of the reverse psychology to the process: he knows many of us think he is lying and expecting he is long already so he reverse the whole thing by being short. Betting on the dips these days makes sense as well as Armstrong's theory about the money flow to private assets sounds logical.

Great job on the short.. I was looking at faz at 38 but coukdnt get myself back into equities, too bad.

That shorting is a poor luck, as I am sure you know, that was a poor casino bet of short vs long. Trading was no brainier in the last few years, the free FED money guaranteed the most straightforward money ever. No luck was involved with that process, the market was going up and up. With so much free FED/ECB money it was no other alternative to the up trend. It seem that time is over. In my opinion it ended in July 2015. If it ever get there I will close the DJIA positions at 15.5K, otherwise the stop losses will take care of the trade. It was a nice 1000 point ride so better to take the profit. Then possibly I will wait for Armstrong's slingshot or at least bullish reversal.

I was looking at faz at 38 but coukdnt get myself back into equities, too bad.

I understand that. I had a same experience with VIX. I am usually hedging with VIX. It saved my longs and consequently my ass several times. Apart from the hedging I knew that I should go long with it when it was at 14 back November. I didn't, but next time it will get to 12 I will (except if the market is in free fall and heading to Armstrong's 13K)

Good luck with your trading!

[enosenose]

dow flash crash to 13K, 1987 style?

what happen to his central thesis of public to private assets that he keeps prophesying that is supposed lend support to the equity mkt & to infinity beyond.

phase transition (head) or sling shot (tail)... i guess he is going to say that he or computer calls it when either one of the event eventually happens.

at the end of the day, do not let his extreme views distort yours because it seems like he doesnt know what is going to happen more than you do & is relying on traditional px action to justify his storyline.