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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 588306 times)
zimmah
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May 30, 2016, 02:55:11 AM
 #3221




I don't really disagree with a lot of your analysis Zimmah - yet I am a bit concern about part of your premise about addresses.

The longer someone owns bitcoin and the more that s/he uses bitcoin, the more addresses s/he creates, and even some older and more sophisticated users advocate using a different address for each transaction.

I've been using bitcoin about 2.5 years, and I can also be a witness to this kind of address generation.  At first I only had a few places that I held bitcoins, and I barely did any transactions. My use of bitcoin has increased.  I think I do some off chain transactions with various (third party holder of my coins) , yet I probably generate a new address on average about once every 3 or 4 on chain transactions.  I estimate that  I've probably generated more than 40 bitcoin addresses through my various usages in such a short period of time, and some addresses hold more bitcoins than others, and several addresses have fraction of coins remaining.




what's the thing that concerns you about that?

The inaccuracy of the data or are you worried we run out of addresses?

The data of course is not 100% accurate, but it gives us a general idea about roughly how many people own a certain amount of bitcoin (and it's also roughly what you would expect according to zipfs law and wealth distribution).

But lets say for example that on average an user use 50 wallets and spreads his coins between them.

If an user has 10,000 bitcoin, than he could spread them in many different ways, but if he has like >100 in each wallet, then all 50 of his wallets would show up as 10 bitcoin wallets.

That would take 50 wallets out of the 10 BTC owners table to combine into 1 large wallet of 10,000 bitcoin.

Let's do something crazy and let's say we apply this to EVERY wallet (of course this is not true, but let's just assume that it is).

So let's say everyone in the below chart actually has their money spread around in 10 wallets and for simplicity sake lets assume the money is spread evenly between those wallets. (let's ignore the 3 mega-wallets, they don't really count).

(quoted the numbers for convience) This is the chart as it is.
Quote
1BTC:   465,992
10BTC:   125,460
100BTC:   12,907
1,000BTC:   1,585
10,000BTC:   110
100,000BTC:   3
Total(>0BTC):   7,250,077

Now let's see what the converted chart would look like

Quote
1BTC:   771,606
10BTC:   59,145
100BTC:   13,836
1,000BTC:   1448
10,000BTC:   169
100,000BTC:   14
Total(>0BTC):   725,007

As you can see, this barely changes the numbers at all, only the extremes (>0 BTC, 1BTC and 100,000 BTC change significantly (and those are outliers)).

Most likely, the truth is somewhere in between those values. So we can expect there is somewhere between 725,000 and 7,2 million unique bitcoin users, and between 60,000 and 130,000 of those have 10 or more bitcoin, and between 500,000 and 750,000 people own at least 1 full bitcoin. the other numbers are pretty similar in both scenarios so they are most likely roughly in the right ballpark already. (give or take a few %). (In reality obviously the people with less than 1 bitcoin most likely only use 1 wallet, that's why the lower end of the table is more inaccurate)

This is of course all pretty rough calculations but as you can see, splitting the money up doesn't matter that much for the statistics overall. Because for every couple of wallets combined to create a larger wallet, you will only move wallets between different classes and the whole chart will just correct itself and end up nearly exactly the same anyway.

We also won't run out of addresses because there's just so many possible addresses.

2^160 to be precise, and to put that into perspective for you, if 8 billion people would generate 1 billion addresses per second it would take 5.7 SEXTILLION years before we run out of adresses. That is nearly half a billion times the calculated age of the universe.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2%5E160+%2F+(8+billion+*+billion+per+second)
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Put BTC here: 1GSwznUNG4co5rS3ctmRgtYGcWiHAnwAyj


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May 30, 2016, 06:32:14 PM
 #3222




I don't really disagree with a lot of your analysis Zimmah - yet I am a bit concern about part of your premise about addresses.

The longer someone owns bitcoin and the more that s/he uses bitcoin, the more addresses s/he creates, and even some older and more sophisticated users advocate using a different address for each transaction.

I've been using bitcoin about 2.5 years, and I can also be a witness to this kind of address generation.  At first I only had a few places that I held bitcoins, and I barely did any transactions. My use of bitcoin has increased.  I think I do some off chain transactions with various (third party holder of my coins) , yet I probably generate a new address on average about once every 3 or 4 on chain transactions.  I estimate that  I've probably generated more than 40 bitcoin addresses through my various usages in such a short period of time, and some addresses hold more bitcoins than others, and several addresses have fraction of coins remaining.




what's the thing that concerns you about that?

The inaccuracy of the data or are you worried we run out of addresses?

The data of course is not 100% accurate, but it gives us a general idea about roughly how many people own a certain amount of bitcoin (and it's also roughly what you would expect according to zipfs law and wealth distribution).

But lets say for example that on average an user use 50 wallets and spreads his coins between them.

If an user has 10,000 bitcoin, than he could spread them in many different ways, but if he has like >100 in each wallet, then all 50 of his wallets would show up as 10 bitcoin wallets.

That would take 50 wallets out of the 10 BTC owners table to combine into 1 large wallet of 10,000 bitcoin.

Let's do something crazy and let's say we apply this to EVERY wallet (of course this is not true, but let's just assume that it is).

So let's say everyone in the below chart actually has their money spread around in 10 wallets and for simplicity sake lets assume the money is spread evenly between those wallets. (let's ignore the 3 mega-wallets, they don't really count).

(quoted the numbers for convience) This is the chart as it is.
Quote
1BTC:   465,992
10BTC:   125,460
100BTC:   12,907
1,000BTC:   1,585
10,000BTC:   110
100,000BTC:   3
Total(>0BTC):   7,250,077

Now let's see what the converted chart would look like

Quote
1BTC:   771,606
10BTC:   59,145
100BTC:   13,836
1,000BTC:   1448
10,000BTC:   169
100,000BTC:   14
Total(>0BTC):   725,007

As you can see, this barely changes the numbers at all, only the extremes (>0 BTC, 1BTC and 100,000 BTC change significantly (and those are outliers)).

Most likely, the truth is somewhere in between those values. So we can expect there is somewhere between 725,000 and 7,2 million unique bitcoin users, and between 60,000 and 130,000 of those have 10 or more bitcoin, and between 500,000 and 750,000 people own at least 1 full bitcoin. the other numbers are pretty similar in both scenarios so they are most likely roughly in the right ballpark already. (give or take a few %). (In reality obviously the people with less than 1 bitcoin most likely only use 1 wallet, that's why the lower end of the table is more inaccurate)

This is of course all pretty rough calculations but as you can see, splitting the money up doesn't matter that much for the statistics overall. Because for every couple of wallets combined to create a larger wallet, you will only move wallets between different classes and the whole chart will just correct itself and end up nearly exactly the same anyway.

We also won't run out of addresses because there's just so many possible addresses.

2^160 to be precise, and to put that into perspective for you, if 8 billion people would generate 1 billion addresses per second it would take 5.7 SEXTILLION years before we run out of adresses. That is nearly half a billion times the calculated age of the universe.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2%5E160+%2F+(8+billion+*+billion+per+second)


I am not worried about running out of addresses.

I don't necessarily disagree with you regarding possible ways that individuals may hold their coins or that there is some distribution of coins similar to what you are asserting.

But I believe that you do not get and cannot get that information from the bitcoin addresses.

Like you mention, we can get some information regarding possible users from bitcoin addresses because we can analyze some of the history of the address and how long it has been used and how active the address is.
The whole


kalgecin
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June 02, 2016, 09:45:14 AM
 #3223

We will all be rich gentlemen.






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yugyug
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June 02, 2016, 10:44:31 AM
 #3224

we will be rich again as the btc value is rising so let's rejoice

romero121
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June 02, 2016, 10:47:24 AM
 #3225

We will all be rich gentlemen.

I too hope that we all will become rich with bitcoin. Already those first level adopters have become rich. So considering most of us to be the second level adopters we too will become rich in a limited time.

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June 02, 2016, 11:37:22 AM
 #3226

wow interesting. i think its such a swet thinking, i also hopeful that a time will come when we will be really  wealthy elite gentlemen. i will really thank to bitcoin if ii became a wealthy person using bitcon forum.
QuestionAuthority
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June 02, 2016, 02:27:22 PM
 #3227


nioc
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out of the blue and into the black


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June 03, 2016, 01:40:31 AM
 #3228

^^The answer is soon!  Wait, what was the question?  I didn't read the thread. Tongue

Disclaimer: This is an unpaid signature  Smiley

If you don't know where you're going any road will get you there
kibblesnbits
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June 12, 2016, 11:26:19 AM
 #3229

I waited a year and a half - is it still the same question?  Is it gentleman yet?

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Bobsurplus
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June 12, 2016, 11:28:37 AM
 #3230



Lmao.. reviving this thread is the right thing to do when btc is in the process of getting ready for liftoff.
universe_
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June 12, 2016, 11:51:07 AM
 #3231

I waited a year and a half - is it still the same question?  Is it gentleman yet?
i guess you might need to have to wait a little bit more until the price reaches new heights it depends on how much coins you have

im pretty confident that we all be wealthy too to be honest

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June 12, 2016, 12:04:46 PM
 #3232

I waited a year and a half - is it still the same question?  Is it gentleman yet?

Yes, its almost  gentlemen, get yr moonboots ready now if you haven't already....

DEEPONION IS JUST  A SPAMMERS CAMPAIGN **not a real AIRDROP**
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June 12, 2016, 12:22:45 PM
 #3233



Lmao.. reviving this thread is the right thing to do when btc is in the process of getting ready for liftoff.

Two years? Try 5 Tongue
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June 12, 2016, 02:25:09 PM
 #3234

This is the one and the only!
This is the thread that brought me here in the first place. Astrohacker's post changed my view on money and introduced me to the best technology ever.

Exciting times ahead...

"To live in accordance with how one thinks. Be yourself and don't try to impose your criteria on the rest. I don't expect others to live like me. I want to respect people's freedom, but I defend my freedom. And that comes with the courage to say what you think, even if sometimes others don't share those views." José "Pepe" Mujica
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June 12, 2016, 02:27:50 PM
 #3235

OP deleted his account it seems, probably because he is so rich now that he doesn't want to post on forums anymore and is enjoying his new found wealth.

Hopefully we can be like OP in a couple of years. HODL.

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[/center]
Yakamoto
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June 12, 2016, 02:31:18 PM
 #3236

Holy shit its been a long time since I've seen this thread.

Well, I'm definitely dusting off my spacesuit and getting ready to see really high values, regardless of whether or not I actually think we'll be seeing such numbers.














 

 

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BitBlender 

 













 















 












 
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June 12, 2016, 02:43:49 PM
 #3237

OP deleted his account it seems, probably because he is so rich now that he doesn't want to post on forums anymore and is enjoying his new found wealth.

Hopefully we can be like OP in a couple of years. HODL.

OP is Atlas. A notorious troll who got banned in the end for faking (?) a suicide attempt.
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June 12, 2016, 02:52:33 PM
 #3238

OP deleted his account it seems, probably because he is so rich now that he doesn't want to post on forums anymore and is enjoying his new found wealth.

Hopefully we can be like OP in a couple of years. HODL.

He was a 16 year old self proclaimed nihilist kid from Texas with mental problems, abused by his parents, that tried to commit suicide and posted about it on this forum.

The mighty:


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June 13, 2016, 05:21:36 PM
 #3239

we are back to be the rich elite now...

happy to see Smiley

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June 14, 2016, 01:16:18 PM
 #3240

how many btc do i need to have in order to be a part of this elite club
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