Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order

[philipma1957]

Nah, game not over for Bitfury - their announced efficiency for their chip is competative.

 On the other hand, they DID take too long getting to market, so they're going to HAVE to compete when they do finally get something out there. No "first to market" bonus gouging pricing for THEM!


 Bitmain I figure will drop the price quite a bit once someone actually DOES release a competative product - I can and WILL wait, $2100 is too much IMO even with the hashrate and efficiency.


 If you assume 3% or so hashrate growth, I suspect you can get that 7-8 month ROI - the halfing is likely to KILL a bunch of older miners due to massive unprofitability even at VERY VERY cheap electric rates, and so will likely see a substantial dip for a while - the S7/A6/BEleven units should stay profitable if your electric is cheap enough, but SP20/S5 generation forget it unless you have FREE electric I'd bet.


 I'd NOT assume network hashrate growth in July.

this is accurate. 

400ph is old stuff.
It dies in July.   
Bitfury has nothing  for at least  a month.

So from now until August bitmaintech  will slowly sell s-9's  making big profits on high markups.

Once other companies start to sell better gear bitmaintech will cruch them with price drops.

Early s-9 buyers should do okay from June 15 to Sept 15.   Then the diff will move

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[813bits]

Based on historical trends, how much longer before B2 is released?

[Dekker3D]

How's the profitability on this one? I'm no longer buying these bitcoin miners for they hardly ROI. Difficulty change, halving, decreasing price of hardware, etc makes mining so inconsistent nowadays.

[alienesb]

At this point isn't it wiser to just hold the coin and wait for the price rise rather than risk the hardware bubble popping?

[d57heinz]

Haven't we learned yet to just buy the coins and hold.  Even if it takes 2 4 6 years for it to rise.  At least your not competing with diff.  If all holds true price will keep rising as supply shortens.  But the miners don't have life expectancy of much over a couple years.  And they sure aren't  built to last for much more than that.  So that begs to question why keep doing this over and over. Definition of insane is doing the same thing over expecting dif results.  That huge show of force on the network was no fluke.  Everyone speculated with the s7 that network would drop.   And it did what ??  Went to the moon. And the more I look back at it. The increase was 3x. Which aligns nicely with the s9 efficiency. Not the s5>s7.  So it seems maybe they have the s9 sooner and sold us s7 so they could easily squeeze us out.  The game seems well in hands of bitmain for the time being.

Best regards
d57heinz

[alienesb]

Haven't we learned yet to just buy the coins and hold.  Even if it takes 2 4 6 years for it to rise.  At least your not competing with diff.  If all holds true price will keep rising as supply shortens.  But the miners don't have life expectancy of much over a couple years.  And they sure aren't  built to last for much more than that.  So that begs to question why keep doing this over and over. Definition of insane is doing the same thing over expecting dif results.  That huge show of force on the network was no fluke.  Everyone speculated with the s7 that network would drop.   And it did what ??  Went to the moon. And the more I look back at it. The increase was 3x. Which aligns nicely with the s9 efficiency. Not the s5>s7.  So it seems maybe they have the s9 sooner and sold us s7 so they could easily squeeze us out.  The game seems well in hands of bitmain for the time being.

Best regards
d57heinz

Yeah I'm thinking they have had these for awhile and were waiting for bitfury.

[s1gs3gv]

the halfing is likely to KILL a bunch of older miners due to massive unprofitability even at VERY VERY cheap electric rates, and so will likely see a substantial dip for a while - the S7/A6/BEleven units should stay profitable if your electric is cheap enough, but SP20/S5 generation forget it unless you have FREE electric I'd bet.


 I'd NOT assume network hashrate growth in July.

Miners have repeatedly shown a willingness to invest and operate even when ROI is obviously impossible, in the hope I assume that BTC prices do a moon shot at some point in the future.

[-droid-]

has anyone heard the rumor that the S7's chips were in fact failed runs of these same 16nm chips.. for fear of being called a failure bitmain decided to market the s7 as better fully customized 28nm

interesting theory

[RichBC]

has anyone heard the rumor that the S7's chips were in fact failed runs of these same 16nm chips.. for fear of being called a failure bitmain decided to market the s7 as better fully customized 28nm

interesting theory

Never heard that before, but worthy of consideration and might explain the number of iterations and selections that the S7 went through?

Any more info on the rumour?


Rich

[dogie]

Was going to order one, but S9 is sold out 

They are just teasing you and everyone else, creating a sense of scarcity, which, as we all know, does not really exist.
Will be back in a few. Maybe B2 with 187 or 191 chips instead of 189, 

First batches are small to allow them to fix any unseen issues and still ship out on time. You'd be more annoyed if they committed to 50,000 units day 1 then had to delay delivery, right?

[Masha Sha]

has anyone heard the rumor that the S7's chips were in fact failed runs of these same 16nm chips.. for fear of being called a failure bitmain decided to market the s7 as better fully customized 28nm

interesting theory

Never heard that before, but worthy of consideration and might explain the number of iterations and selections that the S7 went through?

Any more info on the rumour?


Rich

I don't think so... The process isn't available since that long.

[SaBit]

I really hope they release the next batch soon, because I have already started selling my S7's and was too slow for the first batch

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Sure you probably make more by just buying and Holding BTC ,,  but where is the fun in that

[philipma1957]

I really hope they release the next batch soon, because I have already started selling my S7's and was too slow for the first batch

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Sure you probably make more by just buying and Holding BTC ,,  but where is the fun in that

you are better off if batch 2 comes after ½ ing.

Just keep selling your s-7's and  then hold ½ in cash and ½ in btc.

When the time comes get an s-9 or 2.

there is 400ph in gear older then the s-7  it all dies at the ½ ing .

So there will be a 10 to 15% drop in hashrate.  By bitmaintech holding back on the s-9  doing moderate self mining.  They will make their share of coin.  You will be able to order the batch 2 and get a crack at some money. Around July 4th.

[edonkey]

I really hope they release the next batch soon, because I have already started selling my S7's and was too slow for the first batch

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Sure you probably make more by just buying and Holding BTC ,,  but where is the fun in that

you are better off if batch 2 comes after ½ ing.

Just keep selling your s-7's and  then hold ½ in cash and ½ in btc.

When the time comes get an s-9 or 2.

there is 400ph in gear older then the s-7  it all dies at the ½ ing .

So there will be a 10 to 15% drop in hashrate.  By bitmaintech holding back on the s-9  doing moderate self mining.  They will make their share of coin.  You will be able to order the batch 2 and get a crack at some money. Around July 4th.

I looked at what happened in November 28th 2012 for the last halving. Yes, it looked like a 30 day period the hash rate went down about 10%. But in another 30 days it was close to the original level.

So if history is any guide (and what else do we have?) then we'll lose about 138 PH/s for a couple of months between July 10th and September 10th. After that it will be business as usual.

I'm not sure where you came up with your 400 PH/s number, but maybe I'm missing something. I'm a bit jet lagged so I'm not sure my math is right.

[yslyung]

good to see that hopes are high but on the other hand, some might be too "high" on what ever that 1 might be smoking, eating or drinking . . .

if 1 thinks//assumes//calculates//hopes :

-BTC price to go up & MAINTAIN at a certain value (what if it doesn't hold long enough for 1 to achieve ROI & make a little profit ?)

-if 1 thinks that if he/she is the ONLY 1 who knows how to mine/upgrade using an S9 & sell off older miners then it's very wrong, because it is the BIG boys game now UNLESS 1 have almost ZERO to NONE maint. costs. & many others will also know to do so too "technically" the global hashrate stays pretty much the same or if not it may even go up !

-hmmm i don't even want to add in downtime such as warranty claims, broken psu or catches fire, fan separation or what so ever & we all know that it's gonna take some time to get the parts back from warranty let alone a reply from the manufacturer, i hope 1 takes this into consideration when it comes to ROI.

-most guys calc the ROI based on 100% luck mining at pool, not everyday is sunday mate, take that into account too.

bla bla bla & the lists goes on & on, not trying to be a bit*H here & i hope someone does look into those points as a +ve 1.

in the meanwhile, leaning back, munching the popcorns & wait for a drop, might get 1 or a few when time is right.

[zoggie]

Based on historical trends, how much longer before B2 is released?

difficult to even assume as bitmain are restricting sales which to my knowledge, they haven't done in such low numbers before.

[philipma1957]

I really hope they release the next batch soon, because I have already started selling my S7's and was too slow for the first batch

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Sure you probably make more by just buying and Holding BTC ,,  but where is the fun in that

you are better off if batch 2 comes after ½ ing.

Just keep selling your s-7's and  then hold ½ in cash and ½ in btc.

When the time comes get an s-9 or 2.

there is 400ph in gear older then the s-7  it all dies at the ½ ing .

So there will be a 10 to 15% drop in hashrate.  By bitmaintech holding back on the s-9  doing moderate self mining.  They will make their share of coin.  You will be able to order the batch 2 and get a crack at some money. Around July 4th.

I looked at what happened in November 28th 2012 for the last halving. Yes, it looked like a 30 day period the hash rate went down about 10%. But in another 30 days it was close to the original level.

So if history is any guide (and what else do we have?) then we'll lose about 138 PH/s for a couple of months between July 10th and September 10th. After that it will be business as usual.

I'm not sure where you came up with your 400 PH/s number, but maybe I'm missing something. I'm a bit jet lagged so I'm not sure my math is right.

okay 400 ph was the network size last sept

see below from bitcoinwisdom

Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s


all of that is older less efficient then the s-7 or avalon 6

much of it  turns to junk at the ½
current hash is 1,426,731,353 gh


May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s


so my thoughts   are if we grow to 1,600,000,000 up to the ½ ing we drop that 400,000,000 and will be at 1,200,000,000

a diff of 166  vs current diff of 199

[adaseb]

I really hope they release the next batch soon, because I have already started selling my S7's and was too slow for the first batch

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Sure you probably make more by just buying and Holding BTC ,,  but where is the fun in that

you are better off if batch 2 comes after ½ ing.

Just keep selling your s-7's and  then hold ½ in cash and ½ in btc.

When the time comes get an s-9 or 2.

there is 400ph in gear older then the s-7  it all dies at the ½ ing .

So there will be a 10 to 15% drop in hashrate.  By bitmaintech holding back on the s-9  doing moderate self mining.  They will make their share of coin.  You will be able to order the batch 2 and get a crack at some money. Around July 4th.

I looked at what happened in November 28th 2012 for the last halving. Yes, it looked like a 30 day period the hash rate went down about 10%. But in another 30 days it was close to the original level.

So if history is any guide (and what else do we have?) then we'll lose about 138 PH/s for a couple of months between July 10th and September 10th. After that it will be business as usual.

I'm not sure where you came up with your 400 PH/s number, but maybe I'm missing something. I'm a bit jet lagged so I'm not sure my math is right.

okay 400 ph was the network size last sept

see below from bitcoinwisdom

Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s


all of that is older less efficient then the s-7 or avalon 6

much of it  turns to junk at the ½
current hash is 1,426,731,353 gh


May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s


so my thoughts   are if we grow to 1,600,000,000 up to the ½ ing we drop that 400,000,000 and will be at 1,200,000,000

a diff of 166  vs current diff of 199

Out of the 400PH, I am pretty sure most of that hashrate was the S4/S5/SP20 which will still keep running under free electricity.

The S3 and older will probably get mostly turned off.

[notlist3d]

Out of the 400PH, I am pretty sure most of that hashrate was the S4/S5/SP20 which will still keep running under free electricity.

The S3 and older will probably get mostly turned off.

I'm not sure on S5's there are still some places that have "free" or super cheap electricity.   The "free" electricity if they get some bargins on old gear espically.   Granted it is a smaller and smaller subset. And is most cases someone is still footing the bill for the electricity.

But I think S5's will remain on in some places even after having.   I'm not that lucky though I will be needing to be S7 or S9 myself after having.   (Kinda depends on what BTC does)

[_Miracle]

I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)