Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Asrael999]

...before going back into bear mode and closing the year around $2.5k...

This prediction is extremely unlikely in my opinion. Many long-term holders, who took
profits during November/December are going to buy back way before that number. Besides,
institutional money will hop in way before that. 2.5k / BTC would be below the break-even
point for most miners...

Too many people are directly incentivized to prevent BTC from falling to 2.5k.

I go out on a limb here and will say that we will never see 2.5k again.
I will be buying BTC with all my remaining fiat money way before 2.5k myself.

Hope you are right, but an awful lot of people told me in 2/14 that we would never see $200 bitcoins again.

[1714197028]

1714197028

[1714197028]

1714197028

[toknormal]

This prediction is extremely unlikely in my opinion...institutional money will hop in way before that...Too many people are directly incentivized to prevent BTC from falling to 2.5k.

Everybody was saying all that and more in 2014 after the rise to $1200.

$800 - "this is the bottom, Overstock adoption"
$600 - "this is the bottom, new Chinese exchanges coming online"
$400 - "this is the bottom, New Egg, Bitcoin Trust, institutional investment on the way"
$200 - "this is the bottom.....eh"
$180 - "this is the bottom" (And it was).

Bitcoin always makes sure people take pain well beyond their expectations to bake in any new floor. Usually by going all the way to the last long term high and a bit below it. (April 2013 was $266. That had to get retested after the $1200. It did, with an $80 overshoot just for good measure).

Don't be surprised to see at least a wick down to $800.

[Samarkand]

Why would "institutional money" go back into bitcoin? For what? They now know the max capacity of dumb retail money that's bought, and it's time for them to get out.

Because they expect it to outperform other assets?
Because some will be aware of the huge impact that the next block reward halving will have on the BTC price (the months before the halving will be a crazy bull market if you ask me)
Because they are down with stock investments and try to turn around the year by gambling on BTC?
Because there are specialized hedge funds that invest exclusively in cryptocurrencies? Do you think they will invest all client funds in Ripple? Of course they are going to allocate money to BTC.
Because the stock market could run out of steam when the central banks of the world stop expanding the money supply?

Let me know if you need more reasons why institutional money would go back into Bitcoin.
I was just getting started.

...
Hope you are right, but an awful lot of people told me in 2/14 that we would never see $200 bitcoins again.

I could be wrong, but as I said I will commit all my remaining fiat money if I get
the ability to buy BTC in the 2800-2900 $ / BTC range.

[ccminer.net]

This prediction is extremely unlikely in my opinion...institutional money will hop in way before that...Too many people are directly incentivized to prevent BTC from falling to 2.5k.

Everybody was saying all that and more in 2014 after the rise to $1200.

$800 - "this is the bottom, Overstock adoption"
$600 - "this is the bottom, new Chinese exchanges coming online"
$400 - "this is the bottom, New Egg, Bitcoin Trust, institutional investment on the way"
$200 - "this is the bottom.....eh"
$180 - "this is the bottom" (And it was).

Bitcoin always makes sure people take pain well beyond their expectations to bake in any new floor. Usually by going all the way to the last long term high and a bit below it. (April 2013 was $266. That had to get retested after the $1200. It did, with an $80 overshoot just for good measure).

Don't be surprised to see at least a wick down to $800.

this is quite scary!!
I really hope the price will not get any lower  

[TERA2]

What if this the actually the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and now a super bear market is coming?  First it would go down $3K as usual (wave A), then it would start rallying again and LOOK like this was the next big bubble (wave B), but around 8K it would fizzle out and proceed into wave C which could go back into low-mid triple digits

[toknormal]

Guvpaper yields spiking again.

[Enjel]

Why are people panicking so hard?

*Tether's valuation isn't nearly enough to cause a major disturbance in Bitcoin price - rather it's the FUD generated from it that self-fulfills it.

*The price is still above the bottom a week or two ago, and still well above the support level of 8k-9k.

*The price is still up way higher than almost anyone thought it would be just a few months ago... and one of the few people who predicted the high price also predicted these lows, and then predicted moon afterwards.
This person also predicted the 2 year bear at 2013.

The fake news and FUD generated by the media is made to make people fear Bitcoin. The Tether situation is a total non-issue - it's in fact exactly how the US banking system works, except not quite that corrupt.

In the worst case, the US dollar will probably implode faster than Bitcoin does... and so the price will go up!

[SidETH]

Can you guys at least f*cking focus on the current buy/sell statistics? That's what I'm here for.
All these useless predictions are really driving the level of this thread down. Everyone is calling new future lows for what? To be able to say 'I told you so' later?

[PoolMinor]

What if this the actually the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and now a super bear market is coming?  First it would go down $3K as usual (wave A), then it would start rallying again and LOOK like this was the next big bubble (wave B), but around 8K it would fizzle out and proceed into wave C which could go back into low-mid triple digits

So buy again at $3k and short at $8K?
 
I think the absolute bottom if history "rhymes" will be $1500. Which is 1 order of magnitude higher than the previous low in Jan 2015.

[bitserve]

Speaking about Merit, I send all mine away, and now what ? I am sMerit-broke ?
How do I get more sMerits to give away ?

Not even one of you credited one back to me by the way.
How deceptive this is.

sMerit is a shitcoin. You did the right thing getting rid of all yours in exchange of Merits. sMerits are currently worth 0.5 Merits but it will be zero very soon. Theymos can increase the supply at will through "sMerit sources".

Merit is the real thing.

[flynn]

Speaking about Merit, I send all mine away, and now what ? I am sMerit-broke ?
How do I get more sMerits to give away ?

You were lied to, should have hoarded.

Wow ! +15 Merit ... thank you ! I feel loved

Someone told me also that hoarding BTC is useless and he gave me an address to give them away, should I do it too ?    lol


Edit: I just discovered that half of the received Merit goes to your s-Merit bank, ok so that's how you refill
Thats a altcoin with a Proof-Of-Merit thing.

[TERA2]

What if this the actually the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and now a super bear market is coming?  First it would go down $3K as usual (wave A), then it would start rallying again and LOOK like this was the next big bubble (wave B), but around 8K it would fizzle out and proceed into wave C which could go back into low-mid triple digits

So buy again at $3k and short at $8K?
 
I think the absolute bottom if history "rhymes" will be $1500. Which is 1 order of magnitude higher than the previous low in Jan 2015.

That's if the old pattern was followed, but if this was the end of an elliot wave then the pattern would be broken.

[PoolMinor]

Can you guys at least f*cking focus on the current buy/sell statistics? That's what I'm here for.
All these useless predictions are really driving the level of this thread down. Everyone is calling new future lows for what? To be able to say 'I told you so' later?

Yes much like my predictions from 2015
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg12234559#msg12234559


and 2016

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg16007110#msg16007110

[Enjel]

Why are people panicking so hard?

*Tether's valuation isn't nearly enough to cause a major disturbance in Bitcoin price - rather it's the FUD generated from it that self-fulfills it.

Valuation (in terms of marketcap) doesn't really have much to do with its ability to manipulate the market. Most of bitcoin's supply isn't on order books whereas Tether's only reason for existence is for trading - it certainly isn't a store of value. You could therefore drive the price to astromoical levels with only a tiny portion of bitcoin's marketcap if you have control of whatever liquidity is being used to purchase it and get it onto order books.

I understand this.

Nevertheless, the 1-2% of Bitcoin market cap that Tether encompasses could only drive down prices by 10% probably.

Express.co.uk was saying 30-80%. Not surprising, given that they're one of the worst FUD sites of all, but that's just extreme.

The issue shouldn't be a big deal, basically. Not nearly as big a deal as others are making it out to be.

[PoolMinor]

What if this the actually the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and now a super bear market is coming?  First it would go down $3K as usual (wave A), then it would start rallying again and LOOK like this was the next big bubble (wave B), but around 8K it would fizzle out and proceed into wave C which could go back into low-mid triple digits

So buy again at $3k and short at $8K?
 
I think the absolute bottom if history "rhymes" will be $1500. Which is 1 order of magnitude higher than the previous low in Jan 2015.

That's if the old pattern was followed, but if this was the end of an elliot wave then the pattern would be broken.

I guess the first statement was to clarify your position/prediction.

The second statement was my own position/prediction only if history played out for a 18 month bearish market. I am still HODLing and a long term bull. I've stated this before, I am a novice chartist and see patterns from time to time.

[UnDerDoG81]

Wow lot of despair here. Now you guys talking about 3 digits. I wait for someone saying 2 digits and the other one saying "bitcoin is death" for the 270 time.

[toknormal]

The issue shouldn't be a big deal, basically. Not nearly as big a deal as others are making it out to be.

You may be right. I'd sure feel a whole lot more optimistic if that were true.

[Lopumbo]

I understand this.

You clearly do not  

[Enjel]

I understand this.

You clearly do not  

You clearly don't

Draw an extrapolation. I've done this, and if 2 billion USD were suddenly dumped (say Tether value is 0) then the price would probably decrease by about 10%.

Anyone claiming 30% or higher is a FUDster, trying to get cheap coins or blow something out of proportion.

Seems to be working, sadly.

[realr0ach]

It appears some passengers on this train have decided to search for the exit in a completely orderly manner: