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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25438702 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
toknormal
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January 31, 2018, 01:51:44 AM
Merited by ErisDiscordia (5), Bardman (5), Globb0 (4), JayJuanGee (1), soullyG (1), ChinkyEyes (1)


I think I might reverse my earlier assessment of it going back to 1k.

This is looking increasingly like one of those "propellor overheat" corrections on a humungous scale, which means we're still in a heavy bull market. I've seen this so often now, not just in bitcoin but in altcoin markets as well. See this post for background:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17475939#msg17475939

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Lets see what happens when the shorts close and re-assess as we're getting into oversold territory at increasingly long ranges now. RSI is confidently oversold at all ranges up to the 6 hour already, 12 hour is just entering and 1, 3 day are not far off.




Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.




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January 31, 2018, 01:59:00 AM

sub 10k

i think this time it will stick



Are you trying to assert that $10k is going to become resistance, rather than support?  "this time"?
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January 31, 2018, 02:05:47 AM



Google Trends for Bitcoin is the only indicator that is 100% accurate Grin
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January 31, 2018, 02:07:13 AM

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).


Well, theres a feel of "hybernation" in the air, seems the price is freezing and theres lower highs and a slow fall. Thats why I assumed we were in a bear market already, and the price would go full irrational to even 4k.

But you are implying theres a second bubble, in the opposite direction, a bear trap. Theres a lot of resistance and selling orders are quickly fulfilled, the whales cant short to where they want the price to be, hence this desperate FUD about a subpoena to Bitfinex from 6 december, timed exactly with CME settlement date. Thats why I believe we have a short bear trend, that it will last perhaps some weeks. When LN is released to the public, this trend might be over and price will go up again.
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January 31, 2018, 02:08:43 AM
Merited by Karartma1 (1), bitebits (1)

When LN is released to the public, this trend might be over and price will go up again.

The public won't understand what it is or give the slightest shit. They want to sell for more than they paid. That's the full extent of their interest in crypto.
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January 31, 2018, 02:09:02 AM


I think I might reverse my earlier assessment of it going back to 1k.

This is looking increasingly like one of those "propellor overheat" corrections on a humungous scale, which means we're still in a heavy bull market. I've seen this so often now, not just in bitcoin but in altcoin markets as well. See this post for background:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17475939#msg17475939

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Lets see what happens when the shorts close and re-assess as we're getting into oversold territory at increasingly long ranges now. RSI is confidently oversold at all ranges up to the 6 hour already, 12 hour is just entering and 1, 3 day are not far off.



Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.

This is a very interesting way of looking at things.

So basically, you are saying that we are now at the bottom pretty much, since the first "pop" was the initial one, and the drop now is the big one, when the price will increase?

How is this different from Elliot Wave Theory, and why do you think this pattern occurs?
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January 31, 2018, 02:10:55 AM



Google Trends for Bitcoin is the only indicator that is 100% accurate Grin

So... We should pump Google searches for "bitcoin"?  Someone set up a bot please.   Tongue
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January 31, 2018, 02:15:43 AM

Also, for your "propeller" graphs, and the price history, it seems that after each correction, the new top is about 2.5x - 3x higher than the previous bottom.

In that case, if 9k really is the bottom, then we should be expecting BTC/USD around 25k in the next few months. Is that what you're predicting?
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January 31, 2018, 02:16:56 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Lets see what happens when the shorts close and re-assess as we're getting into oversold territory at increasingly long ranges now. RSI is confidently oversold at all ranges up to the 6 hour already, 12 hour is just entering and 1, 3 day are not far off.

I agree.

I mean, just look at the 1d chart on Stamp. The short/sell volume has been falling ever since the ATH. Right now in comparison to previous legs down, it's pathetic.
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January 31, 2018, 02:37:04 AM

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good
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January 31, 2018, 02:39:40 AM

All praises when its up. All issues when its down. circus!
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January 31, 2018, 02:41:39 AM

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good

So if you are so nervous, what is your "I'm out" price?
jojo69
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January 31, 2018, 02:48:23 AM

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good

So if you are so nervous, what is your "I'm out" price?

and sell at the bottom?  please

rather wishing, however, that my "I'm out" price had been at the daily MA cross..which even with the losses incurred in 2 false signals would have been well in excess of 13K
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January 31, 2018, 02:57:52 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good

So if you are so nervous, what is your "I'm out" price?

and sell at the bottom?  please

rather wishing, however, that my "I'm out" price had been at the daily MA cross..which even with the losses incurred in 2 false signals would have been well in excess of 13K

Meh, I wasn't motivated to sell at $19k, $17k, $13k, and not now at $10k. And I'm fully aware that the market could bottom at ~$5-6k. In fact I'd just be looking to add to the stack if we hit that.

Here's the thing: ETFs, ETFs, ETFs. They are coming! Wallstreet knows this. What do you think will happen to the price when Bitcoin ETFs come online? Do you really want to be out of bitcoin when that happens? Do you honestly think that you'll get advanced notice?

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January 31, 2018, 03:01:58 AM

So there is a red pill coin coming out. In less than 24 hours.

Are YOU red pilled enough to get some red pills? Are yah, cuck?
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January 31, 2018, 03:06:59 AM

So there is a red pill coin coming out. In less than 24 hours.

Are YOU red pilled enough to get some red pills? Are yah, cuck?
Had "en lille en" have we?
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January 31, 2018, 03:19:14 AM

Dont you find it odd all these hacks, regulations, bans and scam exposure come out at once

a lot on this forum knew about it for months/years

so why the news happening all at onc...




Fear, we want your cheap coins (Remember Davos)

yum yum yum
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January 31, 2018, 03:25:55 AM

Dang. Now I bet we get some FUDs and Bitcoin will be at 3k ish soon. I cross my fingers that 9k holds  Sad
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January 31, 2018, 03:34:20 AM

Dang. Now I bet we get some FUDs and Bitcoin will be at 3k ish soon. I cross my fingers that 9k holds  Sad
Dude you have no idea how much I want that. I would still be sitting on big profits by any normal standard, and have fiat available from the clonecoins to buy up.
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January 31, 2018, 04:37:41 AM

Pop quiz: Convince an average low/middle class fiat-loving law-abiding person who doesnt believe in a failing or fraudlent banking system that they should use bitcoin, without talking about its price or making profit by trading it. Present what benefits they will reap by using bitcoin as opposed to banks, VISA, google pay, venmo, etc. Anything besides capital gain?
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