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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25439880 times)
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Torque
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January 28, 2018, 07:22:36 PM

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

(I don't use Twitter)
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January 28, 2018, 07:28:18 PM
Merited by jojo69 (2), JayJuanGee (1), Last of the V8s (1), somac. (1)

Sorry for that stupidish question. I invested 2013 in Bitcoin and holding since then. My Coins are on a paper wallet and I don't have much to do with cryptos since then. Everybody is talking about tether these days. I have no idea what that is again. Do I have to do anything with my bitcoins before this tether thing crashes? Or simply hold another few years?
It isn't stupid to ask IMO.
Very briefly:
Tether, as per the FAQ pointed above, is a substitute for USD pegged 1:1.
It's being used to add fiat-like liquidity.
There are worries of over-creation of tether (fractional reserve), along with more complex hypotheses.
If it is a fake, and it pops, there will be some blood and unpleasant consequences on BTC price.
However, bitcoin has lived through worse events (Gox, for example). If one believes in the long-term future of bitcoin, tether shouldn't be able to sway their course of action for the long run.

TL;DR: Just hodl.
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January 28, 2018, 07:39:25 PM

Sorry for that stupidish question. I invested 2013 in Bitcoin and holding since then. My Coins are on a paper wallet and I don't have much to do with cryptos since then. Everybody is talking about tether these days. I have no idea what that is again. Do I have to do anything with my bitcoins before this tether thing crashes? Or simply hold another few years?
It isn't stupid to ask IMO.
Very briefly:
Tether, as per the FAQ pointed above, is a substitute for USD pegged 1:1.
It's being used to add fiat-like liquidity.
There are worries of over-creation of tether (fractional reserve), along with more complex hypotheses.
If it is a fake, and it pops, there will be some blood and unpleasant consequences on BTC price.
However, bitcoin has lived through worse events (Gox, for example). If one believes in the long-term future of bitcoin, tether shouldn't be able to sway their course of action for the long run.

TL;DR: Just hodl.

On August 2, 2016 bitfinex announced it had lost 120,000 Bitcoins in a hack. Although I thought that would crash the price it only went down by $50, then doubled up to over a thousand dollars by the end of the year.

Bitcoin survived that, and it will survive a tether pop (if it does pop).
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January 28, 2018, 07:47:06 PM

Doesn't seem to tie up with the number of new signups on various exchanges.
If it was just a relative few deep pocketed investors then surely there wouldn't have been such a demand for new registrations?

Well if demand was really so high from the retail side, then shouldn't we be seeing the price skyrocket right now? Or at least continue to rise? Hell, 20M+ retail accounts worldwide just trying to buy $50-100 each in this one month would send the price to the moon right now.

But we aren't even seeing that level of buying pressure. That's why I think it mostly came from the institutional side.

I'm sure we'll continue to see 500K - 1M sign ups a month this year, but not sure that will immediately translate to more buying. It really makes me wonder how much bitcoin is being bought by all these new accounts.

Interesting thought. I suppose if new signups was becoming a measure of adoption, then there may be some value in some group or other manipulating the figures.

Sign up is about the least hard thing to do. When you can already buy 1000's of Chinese zombies to click x or y at a certain time or like a post or whatever for just pennies.

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January 28, 2018, 08:00:42 PM

whelp...so much for today

http://philome.la/johnayliff/seedship/play
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January 28, 2018, 08:05:13 PM

Doesn't seem to tie up with the number of new signups on various exchanges.
If it was just a relative few deep pocketed investors then surely there wouldn't have been such a demand for new registrations?

Well if demand was really so high from the retail side, then shouldn't we be seeing the price skyrocket right now? Or at least continue to rise? Hell, 20M+ retail accounts worldwide just trying to buy $50-100 each in this one month would send the price to the moon right now.

But we aren't even seeing that level of buying pressure. That's why I think it mostly came from the institutional side.

I'm sure we'll continue to see 500K - 1M sign ups a month this year, but not sure that will immediately translate to more buying. It really makes me wonder how much bitcoin is being bought by all these new accounts.

Interesting thought. I suppose if new signups was becoming a measure of adoption, then there may be some value in some group or other manipulating the figures.

Sign up is about the least hard thing to do. When you can already buy 1000's of Chinese zombies to click x or y at a certain time or like a post or whatever for just pennies.



Most exchanges have been freezing due to the strain all their new users are putting on their systems. The kraken had to do a massive upgrade to its severs after months of problems. Straining those exchanges to that extent would be much harder to fake. Most Bitcoin exchanges won't let you trade until you supply KYC documents.
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January 28, 2018, 08:14:37 PM

What worries me about tether the most is not that it may not be fully covered by real dollars, but that it might be dangerously close to what central banks are doing. ANd we all know, that banks are not too happy when someone else is taking their money printing/fractional reserve monopoly away from them. Especially when they cannot control it.

My conspiracy tinfoil hat tells me that Tether was sort of endorsed by the CB establishment. They need Bitcoin and the whole crypto market to have a weakness, an Achilles heel, when the next financial crisis comes. Otherwise they know that Bitcoin will go to the moon and they won't have a way to crash and short it.

Tether could be like their Trojan Horse.  Cheesy

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me


I doubt that you can so easily jump to such "more people selling than buying" conclusions, especially if we are talking about short term changes here and there - unless you are just trying to make things up in order to attempt to describe an outcome that you would prefer. 

Recently we have been in a kind of consolidation that has been kind of drifting downwards, concededly, yet it is not clear about whether such downward drifting is going to continue or whether we are at the end of such downward drifting. 

Of course, if BTC prices are going down, then there are more people selling than buying, but the opposite is happening then we have more people buying than selling. 

There can be short term impressions about price direction and there can even be arguments both ways, including technical analysis that frequently get's blown out of the water in bitcoinlandia, especially when it is attempting to describe inevitable necessity for further downwards BTC price movements.
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January 28, 2018, 08:17:29 PM

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

(I don't use Twitter)

Yeah right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.
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January 28, 2018, 08:19:56 PM

Most exchanges have been freezing due to the strain all their new users are putting on their systems. The kraken had to do a massive upgrade to its severs after months of problems. Straining those exchanges to that extent would be much harder to fake. Most Bitcoin exchanges won't let you trade until you supply KYC documents.

it has been 6 weeks now you can not even get the process started at Bittrex

Quote

Dear new users:

We have received an enormous number of new account registrations over the past few weeks.  We are excited to have so many new users who want to join the Bittrex community.  Unfortunately, we have to make a few upgrades to our support and backend systems to handle the increased traffic and load.  As such, we have halted new user registrations for the time being.  If you already have an account on Bittrex, you will not be affected by this change.  Please continue to the log in as you normally do.

To our new users, we will keep you posted on when we open up registration.  We apologize for the inconvenience!

The Bittrex Team
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January 28, 2018, 08:21:29 PM
Last edit: January 28, 2018, 08:32:55 PM by mymenace

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

(I don't use Twitter)

Yeah right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.


over 90% of the time something is going wrong (corrupt)

any trust in any exchange is naive - mtgox, cryptsy and trustworthy btc-e robbed by US fed, recent 500million exchange hack in japan etc etc etc

do not trust any of them, use them while you can, diversify exchanges and use hardware wallets



the new national cryptos coming out are going to legitimatize crypto and discredit competitors (bitcoin)

the IMF new crypto based on the SDR will be the one to rule them all



something is coming


update: hypothesis

need more sheeple into crypto
pump btc higher
introduce safer nationalized crypto
IMF introduces global crypto
crash btc - discredit
flood of sheeple into centralized crypto

beware the sheeple

I would hate for this to happen
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January 28, 2018, 08:21:54 PM

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?
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THE NEXT 2.4 YEARS ARE CRITICAL🍄💊


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January 28, 2018, 08:29:44 PM

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin
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January 28, 2018, 08:42:57 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Here is my theory - posted here so people can pull it apart and make me smarter by pointing out my errors !

Like it or not, Coinbase / Gdax is a primary fiat gateway.  Fiat flows into crypto through Gdax and also flows out through Gdax.  During the rush to $19k, Gdax was often $500 ahead of Bitfinex and Bitstamp who had to be dragged kicking and screaming through arbitrage upwards.

Now we see a $500 gap in the other direction.  Bitfinex is trying to soar but Gdax is dragging it down through arbitrage.  The theory is that there is a net outflow of funds from crypto.

The test for my theory should be that the order books on Bitfinex should be shrinking - I have not tested this yet.
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January 28, 2018, 08:44:51 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?

While scaling is certainly a problem, the apoplectic urgency expressed by the bigblockers was clearly a manufactured canard.
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January 28, 2018, 08:56:19 PM

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin



 Cool

BTCBTC revival
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January 28, 2018, 09:10:25 PM

$12000 in one hour come on bitcoin

[img]https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AAP03GzKgPQ/maxresdefault.jpg[/img

 Cool

BTCBTC revival
weeeee !
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January 28, 2018, 09:33:30 PM

WTF happened to the mempool? This is not the bitcoin i know. (i kid, i still remember 0 fee tx's)

Fees are as low as 1-10sat/b right now. I mean. What the fuck? https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

Could it be that those spamming fucktards finally realized if bitcoin goes down they do too?


Yep, 5 sats per byte will probably get you into the next block or two.

BTC/USD price/100 million = satoshi/USD price * satoshis per byte * bytes = USD transaction cost
$11,700 / 100,000,000 = $0.000117 * 5 * 225 = ~$0.13 cents for a standard 225 byte transaction

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#24h
JayJuanGee
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January 28, 2018, 09:39:08 PM

Whether it is conspiracy or not, we need to formulate some kind of explanation about why now coinbase is $200 below the BTC market price on the weekend, and in previous weekends it was $200 above.  Could be the network speed is increased, so easier to move bitcoins in and out of coinbase?  Could be manipulation to set an impression that selling is higher than buying - since coinbase is a pretty BIG onramp from fiat(including USD)?

Sounds like more people selling than buying causing pressure on the buy side to me

Why doesn't somebody with a Twitter acct just reach out and ask Brian A. what the hell is going on?
https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

(I don't use Twitter)

Yeah right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

As if he is going to answer with any kind of honesty or accurate depiction.


over 90% of the time something is going wrong (corrupt)

any trust in any exchange is naive - mtgox, cryptsy and trustworthy btc-e robbed by US fed, recent 500million exchange hack in japan etc etc etc

do not trust any of them, use them while you can, diversify exchanges and use hardware wallets

You seem to be exaggerating a bit in your post.

Sure, no one is saying to trust exchanges, but each of us have differing levels in which we use them and even keep some value on them.  I don't disagree with your overall point that they are risky and they are trusting 3d parties with your private keys; however, they also seem to be a necessary transitional evil that allows for liquidity that gives bitcoin value in the first place - and your 90% seems to be a bit misleading.   Yeah, bitcoin does not get hacked, it is third parties that screw up, but still your 90% makes it seem as if there is some kind of 90% chance that you are going to lose all your money on exchanges if you leave it there.



the new national cryptos coming out are going to legitimatize crypto and discredit competitors (bitcoin)

I don't know how this relates to anything in the previous post, so it sounds like you are bringing up a new seemingly exaggerated topic that you want to spread the news about some supposed centralized "competitors" to bitcoin.  Get the fuck out of here.  We already have thousands of quasi-centralized and supposed competitors to bitcoin, but there still remains to be something that bitcoin offers that distinguishes it from the others.. no?

the IMF new crypto based on the SDR will be the one to rule them all



something is coming

Very large and unsubstantiated speculation.  Is this a joke?


update: hypothesis

need more sheeple into crypto
pump btc higher
introduce safer nationalized crypto
IMF introduces global crypto
crash btc - discredit
flood of sheeple into centralized crypto

beware the sheeple

I would hate for this to happen

Sure, there maybe some plans like this, and what is the likelihood of success?  more than 50/50?   or really seems like you are talking about scenarios that are likely in the planning, but probably have less than a 5% chance of being successful, no?
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January 28, 2018, 09:40:06 PM

Maybe its the lightning network?

It is early to say that but what if they just don't want to lose the on-chain customers?

I mean if LN gets adopted widely, only a few will be using onchain transactions. That means a direct loss of income for miners. What if they stopped spamming so they can be competitive to LN to not lose fee income?

Fee Income from 10sat/b txs is still better than nothing, right? If that's the case, core team just scored another one.
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January 28, 2018, 09:40:39 PM

Where have all the big blockers gone?  

Where is our friend Gab0? Where is Peter R?  Who will lecture us on the burning necessity of big blocks now that they are no longer with us?

Should we start an “adopt a big blocker” program ?
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