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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25882993 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Torque
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January 30, 2018, 08:38:44 PM

Hey quick,

Someone wake up JJG so he can tell me again that there are no pre-planned, coordinated attacks on Bitcoin.  Roll Eyes

I've been wondering about this myself, seems like strategic FUD. Death by a 1000 cuts.

Sure. But think about it like this. If they just wanted to sell, they would just dump everything without any corresponding FUD needed. But they obviously NEED some new FUD to short because the market is being stubborn and they can't shake out enough coins from exchanges.

It means they are getting desperate. It means that they are accumulating, not just selling off. And if they are accumulating, then for what future purpose? Whatever it is, that could be coming sooner than we think.
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January 30, 2018, 08:39:33 PM

Guys, I have some questions. Tethers in Bitfinex's  address https://omniexplorer.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=1KYiKJEfdJtap9QX2v9BXJMpz2SfU4pgZw keep increasing to nearly 300 mln now. Why is this? Can users from Bitfinex withraw USD if they have USDT (which upon withdrawal are going to that address)?


Yes you can send Tether to BFX and withdraw USD.  There is a minimum transaction size.  Not sure amount it but it would be at least $10k.
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January 30, 2018, 08:42:44 PM



You don't think ... my friend could actually be.... ?  No no, don't think it (shudders)  lol



HA!  if I had a sMERIT...
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January 30, 2018, 08:50:44 PM
Merited by AZwarel (20), ErisDiscordia (5), RoomBot (1), RejectedBanana (1)

... I still struggle to understand why he recommended it to me, yet never embraced it himself.  I just think it was mainly laziness on his part. ...


Isn´t it possible that your friend simply didn´t had the money to buy
BTC even when the Bitcoin price was low? I guess a few people that believed
in Bitcoin simply missed out due to not being liquid enough to invest.

I´m not sure from which country you are, but even in a wealthy country
like the US the average person is not exactly having a lot of money
that is available for investment.

63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency

Maybe you should reconsider and gift him a few mBTC  Wink


That might be the case, but, from my personal experience, it is mostly BS. I did not earn a lot (eastern eu. country), i cut back on my spendings - like a LOT - to put it in bitcoin. Most people waste money on shit. New clothes they do not need, all kinds of social indicators of wealth like newest phone, car, jewelry etc. I have talked to some of my friends about investing in the long term back than; they have rather spent several bitcoin's price on vacations in 2015/2016, so they can post a facebook report on "look, my life is awesome". Now those vacations costs 15x-20x in bitcoin price :-D

I hear you, my man. My friends/family/coworkers were all the same way. I told them to get in when it was $250ish (2013), that it was potentially world changing, and I was laughed out the room. I still remind my old roommate about his response, "Yeahhhh, no thanks. I've got some gold coins, I think I'm good." Or my boss, when it dropped like a stone, "Ha! How's your bitcoin treating you now?" - He no longer speaks to me haha.

Back then, I was part of that $500 emergency group, as shameful as it is to say. I couldn't afford it; I was so far in debt from making some stupid mistakes when I was younger (well, more from stupid lawyer fees, but I digress lol Cheesy) that my credit cards/loans took everything (we're talking 10's of thousands). Still, I found a way to put $25-50 a paycheck into btc; skipped trips, partying, dating, etc.

Selling as it rose over the last 6 months, I can say I'm now debt free. Paid all my cards off, paid my student loans off, and I was able to put a small down payment and own my own place. I wish I'd kept all the messages from those same people over the course of December, "fuck you and your bitcoin". Sorry I'm not sorry, but it's never to late to join the party Smiley

As always, HODL; even better things are soon to come. Just don't think that's the end all/be all, spend some if it will make your life better. Just make sure not to sell it all Wink
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January 30, 2018, 08:52:30 PM
Last edit: January 30, 2018, 09:20:40 PM by STT

Tether is not intended to be speculative. There's supposed to be $2.3B actual fiat backing it.

vs crypto "market cap", which is hugely speculative. It's not an actual valuation, it's simply supply x price.

So yes, the collapse of Tether could have a hugely disproportionate effect on the whole crypto market if it's backed by little to nothing.



Do you think theres enough fiat on the exchanges to cover 500 billion?

Do you think theres enough fiat in the entire world to cover the 1.2 quadrillion derivatives markets?


The point missed with derivatives is that not all of them will simultaneously payout.   Its more like insurance policies where there is a risk of many requiring cash payout but usually these derivatives expire worthless.

I dont know the deal with tether but it sounds like FIAT or even Mt.gox where price became centered to 1 exchange; inflated by fractional reserve which is not how Bitcoin pricing should be determined
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January 30, 2018, 08:55:16 PM

Bitfinex´ed on Twitter:
Quote
Bitcoin went up 17% in a single day, the day they got the subpoena.
and 26% the day after. [...]

https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/958420215301394432

Bitcoin surged 43 % in the 48 hours after the delivery of the subpoena.

So that now looks like they sh*t themselves and decided to pump the market to cash out in an attempt to recover all the USD they didn't have in reserve backing the Tether pool then. Exact same procedure as Gox when they found themselves in a fractional reserve situation - tried to recover to full reserve market manipulation with "fake money".

I´m still sure that we won´t see a real decrease in the Bitcoin price.
I think we will stay above 10k.

I'm sure we will. 1-2k incoming longer term. The entire year's growth is just gonna look faked now.
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January 30, 2018, 08:58:26 PM
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Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Same thing with tethers, or with derivatives. Theres not enough money on Earth to cover all derivatives contracts at the same time. And thats how modern finance works. If they work that way, why bitcoin could not?

Bitcoin is a new system of value. What about we invert the relationship?

Instead of bitcoin, fiat will be the speculative asset, and bitcoin the currency. What about it? Would you invest in fiat state-sponsored money? Hey, bears, I just found the market for you, its fiat currencies. Its always going down.
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January 30, 2018, 09:03:11 PM

Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Not only that, but does anyone believe the network could actually handle the load of a mass selloff of all the bitcoin in world simultaneously? Not a chance. This is not HFT. It would take a year to process the backlog of something like that. Exchanges would just execute plunge protection and shut down. Couple that with their having to be a buyer for every seller, and double no chance.
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January 30, 2018, 09:03:28 PM
Last edit: January 30, 2018, 09:17:51 PM by Biodom
Merited by conspirosphere.tk (1), ssmc2 (1), Last of the V8s (1)

What if this whole thing since the last summer was a planned Gox v2.0? Bull running bitcoin to $20k and bear run it back to $1k after tether stuff blows up.

Never say never guys.  Cool

is it possible that a large asteroid hits earth? yeah
is it possible that on some island in atlantic a large rock will drop in the ocean, devastating US east coast? yeah
However, you can't trade based on these possibilities.

My take: reduced oscillation thesis

$32 peak, correction to $2 (94%). Bottom just 6.25% of the peak.
$1176 peak, correction to $175 (85%). Bottom just 15% of the peak.
$19760 peak, correction to? Linear progression of the trend suggests that ULTIMATE low would be $7113 if my reduced oscillations thesis is correct.

However, it is entirely possible that we will double peak like in 2013. In that case, the ultimate peak would be $50-132K, then a long bear with a bottom at 36% of the top give or take.
Therefore, if we go down to $7K relatively soon, then it would indicate that a bull market is about to start.
In an alternative scenario, we will bottom higher, then go to $50-132K for an ultimate bubble.
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January 30, 2018, 09:04:28 PM

... I still struggle to understand why he recommended it to me, yet never embraced it himself.  I just think it was mainly laziness on his part. ...


Isn´t it possible that your friend simply didn´t had the money to buy
BTC even when the Bitcoin price was low? I guess a few people that believed
in Bitcoin simply missed out due to not being liquid enough to invest.

I´m not sure from which country you are, but even in a wealthy country
like the US the average person is not exactly having a lot of money
that is available for investment.

63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency

Maybe you should reconsider and gift him a few mBTC  Wink


That might be the case, but, from my personal experience, it is mostly BS. I did not earn a lot (eastern eu. country), i cut back on my spendings - like a LOT - to put it in bitcoin. Most people waste money on shit. New clothes they do not need, all kinds of social indicators of wealth like newest phone, car, jewelry etc. I have talked to some of my friends about investing in the long term back than; they have rather spent several bitcoin's price on vacations in 2015/2016, so they can post a facebook report on "look, my life is awesome". Now those vacations costs 15x-20x in bitcoin price :-D

I hear you, my man. My friends/family/coworkers were all the same way. I told them to get in when it was $250ish, that it was potentially world changing, and I was laughed out the room. I still remind my old roommate about his response, "Yeahhhh, no thanks. I've got some gold coins, I think I'm good."

Back then, I was part of that $500 emergency group, as shameful as it is to say. I couldn't afford it; I was so far in debt from making some stupid mistakes when I was younger (well, more from stupid lawyer fees, but I digress lol Cheesy) that my credit cards/loans took everything (we're talking 10's of thousands). Still, I found a way to put $25-50 a paycheck into btc; skipped trips, partying, dating, etc.

Selling as it rose over the last 6 months, I can say I'm now debt free. Paid all my cards off, paid my student loans off, and I was able to put a small down payment and own my own place. I wish I'd kept all the messages from those same people, "fuck you and your bitcoin". Sorry I'm not sorry, but it's never to late to join the party Smiley

As always, HODL; even better things are soon to come. Just don't think that's the end all/be all, spend some if it will make your life better. Just make sure not to sell it all Wink

You have done well :-)
Without sounding prudish, in my experience 95% of people has no concept of long term planning, they act on basic immediate emotional impulses - that also explains these panic sell periods - which are so far has been always corrected upwards in the long term. Like, why would anyone, who is in for the long run and trust the principles of bitcoin would sell on a flash crash out of fear?

It has been proven many times, that day trading on sudden swings based on fear/greed leads to a net loss for more than 90%+ of the participants (net value gain is in a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution, hence the long time strategy is hodling). i have found that studying psychology/philosophy of humans are more rewarding in economic endeavours than economics itself...
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January 30, 2018, 09:05:01 PM

Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Same thing with tethers, or with derivatives. Theres not enough money on Earth to cover all derivatives contracts at the same time. And thats how modern finance works. If they work that way, why bitcoin could not?

Bitcoin is a new system of value. What about we invert the relationship?

Instead of bitcoin, fiat will be the speculative asset, and bitcoin the currency. What about it? Would you invest in fiat state-sponsored money? Hey, bears, I just found the market for you, its fiat currencies. Its always going down.


In your scenario the asking price would drop to something like $0.01, only a few people would sell at current market value. If there are not enough buyers then price would drop to 0 and people would be stuck with an illiquid asset. Exchanges would likely be okay.

If the same happened in fiat - the banks would go under since they have more on the books than they hold in liquidity  
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January 30, 2018, 09:05:28 PM

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

You aren't THAT dump? A 500 Billion MarketCap doesn't mean you can sell all the coinz for 500 Billion  Cheesy
A 2 Billion cashout would crash the market to the bottom
thisisntbic
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January 30, 2018, 09:06:04 PM

Bitfinex´ed on Twitter:
Quote
Bitcoin went up 17% in a single day, the day they got the subpoena.
and 26% the day after. [...]

https[Suspicious link removed]d/status/958420215301394432

Bitcoin surged 43 % in the 48 hours after the delivery of the subpoena.

So that now looks like they sh*t themselves and decided to pump the market to cash out in an attempt to recover all the USD they didn't have in reserve backing the Tether pool then. Exact same procedure as Gox when they found themselves in a fractional reserve situation - tried to recover to full reserve market manipulation with "fake money".

I´m still sure that we won´t see a real decrease in the Bitcoin price.
I think we will stay above 10k.

I'm sure we will. 1-2k incoming longer term. The entire year's growth is just gonna look faked now.


The price also surged over 30% in the 7 days leading up to Dec 6th (~8500 -> 11500). Should we assume they had insider knowledge they were getting subpoenaed before hand and started the pump prematurely?
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January 30, 2018, 09:18:22 PM

In your scenario the asking price would drop to something like $0.01, only a few people would sell at current market value. If there are not enough buyers then price would drop to 0 and people would be stuck with an illiquid asset. Exchanges would likely be okay.


But then it would not be 500 billion anymore.

See the point? Its the same with tether and any other speculative asset.

People are looking to bitcoin as a way to increase their fiat money, not as a way to get rid of it, with a new system of value. Thats why they panic sell, theres not enough adoption.

For bitcoin and the other cryptos to really value 500 billion, people should not sell it, but use it in place of fiat. So, its a technical problem, the fees and scalability.

However, people dont pay attention when this is fixed, when the mempool is cleared and you can send it with a lower fee, they only pay attention to the media FUD. I paid 29 satoshis per byte to send 0.01 some days ago, and it was fast, was confirmed in less than one hour. When the network is not spammed, it really works.




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January 30, 2018, 09:20:45 PM

At this point, we have to ask if a decline has dominated, but only if these declines are more severe. It looks like it will be hard to see the levels above $ 15,000 like Bitcoin.


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January 30, 2018, 09:31:58 PM

The new trend is the downtrend we go down for new ath what Will Be the bottom  Shocked Shocked
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January 30, 2018, 09:40:15 PM
Merited by elg (1)

I like this new merit system.

It seems to raise the standard of the discussion appreciably. I see a rise in newbie accounts posting well thought-out posts and old accounts thinking a bit harder before they post the first random crap which comes to their minds.
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January 30, 2018, 09:41:27 PM

It's bad today because of several dif things.

XEM hack on coincheck

Facebook cracking down on bitcoin ads

Bitfinex tether uncertainty

Also want to mention that any kind of supposed bad news for bitcoin is enhanced and blown way out of proportion by the mainstream media. Its worse now then ever.

Today for example the headlines read "FB Bans all bitcoin ads", but really they just put more guidelines and rules on what kind of crypto ads you can put up.
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January 30, 2018, 09:45:05 PM

Do you hear that sound, young goyim?  That's the great sucking sound of bitcoin being dumped for physical silver; the monsterous bubble deflating until there's nothing left in sight but Vitalik crawling up into a ball to die on the floor.
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January 30, 2018, 09:45:37 PM
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Without sounding prudish, in my experience 95% of people has no concept of long term planning, they act on basic immediate emotional impulses - that also explains these panic sell periods - which are so far has been always corrected upwards in the long term. Like, why would anyone, who is in for the long run and trust the principles of bitcoin would sell on a flash crash out of fear?

It has been proven many times, that day trading on sudden swings based on fear/greed leads to a net loss for more than 90%+ of the participants (net value gain is in a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution, hence the long time strategy is hodling). i have found that studying psychology/philosophy of humans are more rewarding in economic endeavours than economics itself...

95% might be a bit high, but the gist seems correct.  ~50% of people have an IQ less than 100.  ~80% under 115.  You cannot expect great thinking from the masses, when they are so easily led by kittehs and fake news.  There is a reason that change comes from 5% or even less.  Logic and Reason are not common.  It's terribly difficult to study if you cannot read/comprehend, and many (most?) people cannot.

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