Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[True Myth]

starting to feel a little nervous

Just imagine that everyone in the room has BCash. Or is naked. I think it's one of those...

*edit Fixed

[conspirosphere.tk]

Maybe Tether was adopted by Bitfinex specifically to prevent plunges? Our hero? Lol

Well it would make a nice exit scam, compounded:
1 print fake money
2 use it to pump the price of an asset
3 Dump and crash the asset price
4 Profit
5 Buy back the cheap asset and run with it.
6 ?

[Torque]

https://twitter.com/Crypto_Ed_NL/status/958454070229991424

$BTCUSD shorts are still rising. Tomorrow CME futures settlement..... Coincedence? Nope! Expecting more surpressing till settlement

[True Myth]

Noticing that all the "hype coins" are taking the hardest hit.  I'm beginning to speculate which one will be the next to implode.

[JayJuanGee]

... I still struggle to understand why he recommended it to me, yet never embraced it himself.  I just think it was mainly laziness on his part. ...

Isn´t it possible that your friend simply didn´t had the money to buy
BTC even when the Bitcoin price was low? I guess a few people that believed
in Bitcoin simply missed out due to not being liquid enough to invest.

I´m not sure from which country you are, but even in a wealthy country
like the US the average person is not exactly having a lot of money
that is available for investment.

63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency

Maybe you should reconsider and gift him a few mBTC  

Yes.  One of the first things that folks have to learn to do is to attempt to live within their means, and if they have a lifestyle that causes them to spend more than they bring in, then they gots themselves problems. 

Once they figure out how to live within their means, then they can take some of that extra money and put it into bitcoin.  Whether it is $20 per month or $100 per month or some other amount that works for them, and they also should have enough of a dollar stash (or otherwise liquifiable assets), that they do not have draw from their bitcoin funds in case of an emergency - and emergencies happen, they should be part of every person's expected budget.,, planning ahead for six months can be good enough for regular peeps, but if you finances are more complicated and you have businesses that you have to cashflow, too, then you may want to budget in the 18 month territory (I'm currently floating in the 12 -18 month territory for my budgeting ahead).  Also, if you have some BIG expenses that are not reoccurring, but are projected out beyond 18month, then you minimally should be projecting your cashflow out until the time that payments on the BIG expenses are expected to hit you.

[smartcomet]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/worlds-largest-investment-company-interesting-bitcoin-is-under-close-review

Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, chief multi-asset strategist at BlackRock, an investment management corporation with $5.7 trln in assets under management, has said that the company is keeping cryptocurrency under “close review” as an “interesting development.”

[CinemaAI]

Noticing that all the "hype coins" are taking the hardest hit.  I'm beginning to speculate which one will be the next to implode.

Ripple is definitely taking a disproportionate hit.  If there was ever a definition of 'Froth', that would be it.

[toknormal]

I think I might reverse my earlier assessment of it going back to 1k.

This is looking increasingly like one of those "propellor overheat" corrections on a humungous scale, which means we're still in a heavy bull market. I've seen this so often now, not just in bitcoin but in altcoin markets as well. See this post for background:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17475939#msg17475939

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Lets see what happens when the shorts close and re-assess as we're getting into oversold territory at increasingly long ranges now. RSI is confidently oversold at all ranges up to the 6 hour already, 12 hour is just entering and 1, 3 day are not far off.

Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.

[JayJuanGee]

sub 10k

i think this time it will stick

Are you trying to assert that $10k is going to become resistance, rather than support?  "this time"?

[pera]

Google Trends for Bitcoin is the only indicator that is 100% accurate

[fabiorem]

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Well, theres a feel of "hybernation" in the air, seems the price is freezing and theres lower highs and a slow fall. Thats why I assumed we were in a bear market already, and the price would go full irrational to even 4k.

But you are implying theres a second bubble, in the opposite direction, a bear trap. Theres a lot of resistance and selling orders are quickly fulfilled, the whales cant short to where they want the price to be, hence this desperate FUD about a subpoena to Bitfinex from 6 december, timed exactly with CME settlement date. Thats why I believe we have a short bear trend, that it will last perhaps some weeks. When LN is released to the public, this trend might be over and price will go up again.

[gentlemand]

When LN is released to the public, this trend might be over and price will go up again.

The public won't understand what it is or give the slightest shit. They want to sell for more than they paid. That's the full extent of their interest in crypto.

[Enjel]

I think I might reverse my earlier assessment of it going back to 1k.

This is looking increasingly like one of those "propellor overheat" corrections on a humungous scale, which means we're still in a heavy bull market. I've seen this so often now, not just in bitcoin but in altcoin markets as well. See this post for background:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg17475939#msg17475939

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Lets see what happens when the shorts close and re-assess as we're getting into oversold territory at increasingly long ranges now. RSI is confidently oversold at all ranges up to the 6 hour already, 12 hour is just entering and 1, 3 day are not far off.

Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.

This is a very interesting way of looking at things.

So basically, you are saying that we are now at the bottom pretty much, since the first "pop" was the initial one, and the drop now is the big one, when the price will increase?

How is this different from Elliot Wave Theory, and why do you think this pattern occurs?

[True Myth]

Google Trends for Bitcoin is the only indicator that is 100% accurate

So... We should pump Google searches for "bitcoin"?  Someone set up a bot please.  

[Enjel]

Also, for your "propeller" graphs, and the price history, it seems that after each correction, the new top is about 2.5x - 3x higher than the previous bottom.

In that case, if 9k really is the bottom, then we should be expecting BTC/USD around 25k in the next few months. Is that what you're predicting?

[Torque]

The problem is, the correction's just far to sharp and deep for it to be the start of a long term bear market. What's happened is it got overheated in December, then the bubble popped. Then shorters took control and it gets oversold. Then the short bubble pops and it generally ends up halfway up the retrace where it stabilises. So that would be around $13,800 if it spikes down to, say $8800.

If it really was the start of a long term bear, what usually happens is you get a bubble popping to, say 30%, 40% retrace, then a slow build up over a couple of months, then lower highs from there on for 6 months to a year. This isn't like that. It's a perfect bitcoin overheat retrace type correction (IMHO that is).

Lets see what happens when the shorts close and re-assess as we're getting into oversold territory at increasingly long ranges now. RSI is confidently oversold at all ranges up to the 6 hour already, 12 hour is just entering and 1, 3 day are not far off.

I agree.

I mean, just look at the 1d chart on Stamp. The short/sell volume has been falling ever since the ATH. Right now in comparison to previous legs down, it's pathetic.

[jojo69]

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good

[babanana]

All praises when its up. All issues when its down. circus!

[Torque]

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good

So if you are so nervous, what is your "I'm out" price?

[jojo69]

we keep telling ourselves these stories

these charts do not look good

So if you are so nervous, what is your "I'm out" price?

and sell at the bottom?  please

rather wishing, however, that my "I'm out" price had been at the daily MA cross..which even with the losses incurred in 2 false signals would have been well in excess of 13K