Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Not only that, but does anyone believe the network could actually handle the load of a mass selloff of all the bitcoin in world simultaneously? Not a chance. This is not HFT. It would take a year to process the backlog of something like that. Exchanges would just execute plunge protection and shut down. Couple that with their having to be a buyer for every seller, and double no chance.

[Biodom]

What if this whole thing since the last summer was a planned Gox v2.0? Bull running bitcoin to $20k and bear run it back to $1k after tether stuff blows up.

Never say never guys.  

is it possible that a large asteroid hits earth? yeah
is it possible that on some island in atlantic a large rock will drop in the ocean, devastating US east coast? yeah
However, you can't trade based on these possibilities.

My take: reduced oscillation thesis

$32 peak, correction to $2 (94%). Bottom just 6.25% of the peak.
$1176 peak, correction to $175 (85%). Bottom just 15% of the peak.
$19760 peak, correction to? Linear progression of the trend suggests that ULTIMATE low would be $7113 if my reduced oscillations thesis is correct.

However, it is entirely possible that we will double peak like in 2013. In that case, the ultimate peak would be $50-132K, then a long bear with a bottom at 36% of the top give or take.
Therefore, if we go down to $7K relatively soon, then it would indicate that a bull market is about to start.
In an alternative scenario, we will bottom higher, then go to $50-132K for an ultimate bubble.

[AZwarel]

... I still struggle to understand why he recommended it to me, yet never embraced it himself.  I just think it was mainly laziness on his part. ...

Isn´t it possible that your friend simply didn´t had the money to buy
BTC even when the Bitcoin price was low? I guess a few people that believed
in Bitcoin simply missed out due to not being liquid enough to invest.

I´m not sure from which country you are, but even in a wealthy country
like the US the average person is not exactly having a lot of money
that is available for investment.

63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency

Maybe you should reconsider and gift him a few mBTC  

That might be the case, but, from my personal experience, it is mostly BS. I did not earn a lot (eastern eu. country), i cut back on my spendings - like a LOT - to put it in bitcoin. Most people waste money on shit. New clothes they do not need, all kinds of social indicators of wealth like newest phone, car, jewelry etc. I have talked to some of my friends about investing in the long term back than; they have rather spent several bitcoin's price on vacations in 2015/2016, so they can post a facebook report on "look, my life is awesome". Now those vacations costs 15x-20x in bitcoin price :-D

I hear you, my man. My friends/family/coworkers were all the same way. I told them to get in when it was $250ish, that it was potentially world changing, and I was laughed out the room. I still remind my old roommate about his response, "Yeahhhh, no thanks. I've got some gold coins, I think I'm good."

Back then, I was part of that $500 emergency group, as shameful as it is to say. I couldn't afford it; I was so far in debt from making some stupid mistakes when I was younger (well, more from stupid lawyer fees, but I digress lol ) that my credit cards/loans took everything (we're talking 10's of thousands). Still, I found a way to put $25-50 a paycheck into btc; skipped trips, partying, dating, etc.

Selling as it rose over the last 6 months, I can say I'm now debt free. Paid all my cards off, paid my student loans off, and I was able to put a small down payment and own my own place. I wish I'd kept all the messages from those same people, "fuck you and your bitcoin". Sorry I'm not sorry, but it's never to late to join the party

As always, HODL; even better things are soon to come. Just don't think that's the end all/be all, spend some if it will make your life better. Just make sure not to sell it all

You have done well :-)
Without sounding prudish, in my experience 95% of people has no concept of long term planning, they act on basic immediate emotional impulses - that also explains these panic sell periods - which are so far has been always corrected upwards in the long term. Like, why would anyone, who is in for the long run and trust the principles of bitcoin would sell on a flash crash out of fear?

It has been proven many times, that day trading on sudden swings based on fear/greed leads to a net loss for more than 90%+ of the participants (net value gain is in a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution, hence the long time strategy is hodling). i have found that studying psychology/philosophy of humans are more rewarding in economic endeavours than economics itself...

[starmman]

Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Same thing with tethers, or with derivatives. Theres not enough money on Earth to cover all derivatives contracts at the same time. And thats how modern finance works. If they work that way, why bitcoin could not?

Bitcoin is a new system of value. What about we invert the relationship?

Instead of bitcoin, fiat will be the speculative asset, and bitcoin the currency. What about it? Would you invest in fiat state-sponsored money? Hey, bears, I just found the market for you, its fiat currencies. Its always going down.

In your scenario the asking price would drop to something like $0.01, only a few people would sell at current market value. If there are not enough buyers then price would drop to 0 and people would be stuck with an illiquid asset. Exchanges would likely be okay.

If the same happened in fiat - the banks would go under since they have more on the books than they hold in liquidity  

[Lopumbo]

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

You aren't THAT dump? A 500 Billion MarketCap doesn't mean you can sell all the coinz for 500 Billion  
A 2 Billion cashout would crash the market to the bottom

[thisisntbic]

Bitfinex´ed on Twitter:

Bitcoin went up 17% in a single day, the day they got the subpoena.
and 26% the day after. [...]

https[Suspicious link removed]d/status/958420215301394432

Bitcoin surged 43 % in the 48 hours after the delivery of the subpoena.

So that now looks like they sh*t themselves and decided to pump the market to cash out in an attempt to recover all the USD they didn't have in reserve backing the Tether pool then. Exact same procedure as Gox when they found themselves in a fractional reserve situation - tried to recover to full reserve market manipulation with "fake money".

I´m still sure that we won´t see a real decrease in the Bitcoin price.
I think we will stay above 10k.

I'm sure we will. 1-2k incoming longer term. The entire year's growth is just gonna look faked now.

The price also surged over 30% in the 7 days leading up to Dec 6th (~8500 -> 11500). Should we assume they had insider knowledge they were getting subpoenaed before hand and started the pump prematurely?

[fabiorem]

In your scenario the asking price would drop to something like $0.01, only a few people would sell at current market value. If there are not enough buyers then price would drop to 0 and people would be stuck with an illiquid asset. Exchanges would likely be okay.

But then it would not be 500 billion anymore.

See the point? Its the same with tether and any other speculative asset.

People are looking to bitcoin as a way to increase their fiat money, not as a way to get rid of it, with a new system of value. Thats why they panic sell, theres not enough adoption.

For bitcoin and the other cryptos to really value 500 billion, people should not sell it, but use it in place of fiat. So, its a technical problem, the fees and scalability.

However, people dont pay attention when this is fixed, when the mempool is cleared and you can send it with a lower fee, they only pay attention to the media FUD. I paid 29 satoshis per byte to send 0.01 some days ago, and it was fast, was confirmed in less than one hour. When the network is not spammed, it really works.

[Aqualung89]

At this point, we have to ask if a decline has dominated, but only if these declines are more severe. It looks like it will be hard to see the levels above $ 15,000 like Bitcoin.

[Dakustaking76]

The new trend is the downtrend we go down for new ath what Will Be the bottom 

[ErisDiscordia]

I like this new merit system.

It seems to raise the standard of the discussion appreciably. I see a rise in newbie accounts posting well thought-out posts and old accounts thinking a bit harder before they post the first random crap which comes to their minds.

[bitChipper]

It's bad today because of several dif things.

XEM hack on coincheck

Facebook cracking down on bitcoin ads

Bitfinex tether uncertainty

Also want to mention that any kind of supposed bad news for bitcoin is enhanced and blown way out of proportion by the mainstream media. Its worse now then ever.

Today for example the headlines read "FB Bans all bitcoin ads", but really they just put more guidelines and rules on what kind of crypto ads you can put up.

[hazukison]

Do you hear that sound, young goyim?  That's the great sucking sound of bitcoin being dumped for physical silver; the monsterous bubble deflating until there's nothing left in sight but Vitalik crawling up into a ball to die on the floor.

(((Are)))(((you)))(((sure)))(((about)))(((that)))(((?)))

[explorer]

Without sounding prudish, in my experience 95% of people has no concept of long term planning, they act on basic immediate emotional impulses - that also explains these panic sell periods - which are so far has been always corrected upwards in the long term. Like, why would anyone, who is in for the long run and trust the principles of bitcoin would sell on a flash crash out of fear?

It has been proven many times, that day trading on sudden swings based on fear/greed leads to a net loss for more than 90%+ of the participants (net value gain is in a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution, hence the long time strategy is hodling). i have found that studying psychology/philosophy of humans are more rewarding in economic endeavours than economics itself...

95% might be a bit high, but the gist seems correct.  ~50% of people have an IQ less than 100.  ~80% under 115.  You cannot expect great thinking from the masses, when they are so easily led by kittehs and fake news.  There is a reason that change comes from 5% or even less.  Logic and Reason are not common.  It's terribly difficult to study if you cannot read/comprehend, and many (most?) people cannot.

[toknormal]

Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Same thing with tethers, or with derivatives.

Not the same thing at all.

Fiat requires to be underwritten. Even central banks cannot conjure it up "out of nothing". They need third parties to endorse its value by way of debt contracts. Ok, those debt contracts are of a range of quality and are subject to default, but the fiat that's in existence is all at least created ultimately - not by the central bank - but by those sovereigns or corporates who's bonds the central bank has to buy in order to "create" the new money.

Tether on the other hand is no more than a cancerous tumour that can consume everything in its path. Whoever has control of the Tether supply can simply buy up real assets like a tsunami washing over a city at no cost or risk to themselves. If a central bank buys toxic sovereign debt and that debt defaults then the the bank holds nothing. On the other hand if Tether Company conjurs up $300M of tokens and use it to buy Bitcoin while pushing the price up, if Tether defaults they still have their bitcoin

The irony is that the cryptocurrency "community" largely exists to escape the tyranny of central banks over extension, only to fall into the trap of an even greater tyranny planted right in its midst.

If it had any sense it would use the BitAssets as fiat pegged trading pairs for crypto, being that they can't be corrupted in the way that "funny Tether money" can. But sense is usually in short supply when the market is rife with only one or other of greed or fear.

[rezurect007]

I'm thinking of running a LN node on google Compute engine.
f1 micro. Have to pay for the storage only i guess, 70$ a year might have to keep adding storage every year
Unless i missed something really obvious??

[JayJuanGee]

This is reminding me of the $800 phase in early 2014. I'd prefer a violent plunge to rip everyone's baby blue panties to shreds and then we can get down to business.

That's when I started buying so I remember it well.  I've thought the same many times.

Was the $800 phase in early 2014 - before the February news of the Gox closing, which really $800 phase was short lived and bouncing around in early 2014?  I don't know? 

I was buying from $1,200 in November 2013, and by the time the end of February came and we were floating around in the $600s, and I had spent well over half of my 6 months investment budget in the first three months of my investment, and by the end of my first six months, I had upped my budget by about 15% (in other words, I went a bit over budget in my buying of BTC), but yeah, there was no need to rush to buy up the "bargain BTC prices" because we then had another 6 months of buying opportunity, and then we had another year after that... hahahahaha.. .go figure.

Surely, "this time is different" ^tm.  Let's just take the most exponential component of this latest run up from $2,600 in August 2017 to $19,666.  That is a 7.5x run up from August to December - 4 months.... yet the previous uprun from $250 has taken more than 2 years.. from October 2015. 

It just seems too early to call a bear market out of this or to strongly suggest that we are going into some extended drawn out down period from here.  I am just not convinced, yet.  If we get down below $8k, or even below the supposed $7500 that so many supposed TA experts are calling, then I might start to give greater weight to those kinds of 2014 comparisons... let's see it first.   

[AZwarel]

Without sounding prudish, in my experience 95% of people has no concept of long term planning, they act on basic immediate emotional impulses - that also explains these panic sell periods - which are so far has been always corrected upwards in the long term. Like, why would anyone, who is in for the long run and trust the principles of bitcoin would sell on a flash crash out of fear?

It has been proven many times, that day trading on sudden swings based on fear/greed leads to a net loss for more than 90%+ of the participants (net value gain is in a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution, hence the long time strategy is hodling). i have found that studying psychology/philosophy of humans are more rewarding in economic endeavours than economics itself...

95% might be a bit high, but the gist seems correct.  ~50% of people have an IQ less than 100.  ~80% under 115.  You cannot expect great thinking from the masses, when they are so easily led by kittehs and fake news.  There is a reason that change comes from 5% or even less.  Logic and Reason are not common.  It's terribly difficult to study if you cannot read/comprehend, and many (most?) people cannot.

Sadly, i agree, with the addition, that even those who i know has the "hardware" (the 115 iq+) have this attitude of " oh no this is out of my field, i shouldn't". I really like bitcoin, it is a true interdisciplinary subject, where you have to incorporate different fields of study into a single, complex idea. That requires genuine interest to reach knowledge, i think THAT is what missing in the "average". That is why i start to accept the idea, that it is no coincidence, that wealth/creative production capacity/high quality sexual mates etc. are spread in a Paretio distribution. AKA, most people are just too lazy mentally.

It is sad, that this major shift in the societal construct what bitcoin offers - just like the internet did to us on a global scale - goes the same way as everything else did before: the curious, mindful, and risk taking are reaping the benefits, and the masses will lag behind as usual. Guess that is why they are the masses  

[Globb0]

As many pointed out the timing couldn't have been better. I'll simply hold my coins. During these days I say to myself that 1 BTC is 1 BTC.
Our time has yet to come.
If Bitfinex and Tether blow up, I just don't care

I would merit this post, but I blew my load

Allow me to contribute some shells. To the reload of a gentleman.

*tips hat*

*edit*

Oh and I took the liberty of meriting the original post on our behalf

[d_eddie]

Recently stock market took a couple hits too. Who knows if this is relevant for the immediate future.

[TERA2]

The strange part about all this is that the possibility to continue to another ATH is still not completely off the chart and could fit the previous pattern..

What would the timeframe for an ATH be though?

It would have to occur within a couple weeks. It doesnt look like this is happening...