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April 23, 2019, 07:15:49 PM *
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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 3 (3.2%)
1-5% - 3 (3.2%)
6-10% - 0 (0%)
11-15% - 0 (0%)
16-20% - 2 (2.2%)
21-25% - 2 (2.2%)
26-30% - 2 (2.2%)
31-35% - 0 (0%)
36-40% - 4 (4.3%)
41-45% - 2 (2.2%)
46-50% - 1 (1.1%)
51-55% - 2 (2.2%)
56-60% - 2 (2.2%)
61-65% - 0 (0%)
66-70% - 8 (8.6%)
71-75% - 5 (5.4%)
76-80% - 6 (6.5%)
81-85% - 10 (10.8%)
86-90% - 7 (7.5%)
91-95% - 7 (7.5%)
96-99% - 6 (6.5%)
100% - 21 (22.6%)
Total Voters: 93

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21123934 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (18 posts by 10 users deleted.)
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April 09, 2019, 02:56:36 PM

Pretty sure this is the 73rd time that mining has been banned in China
In other news, Bitcoin is deadagain
Like China would even really ban mining there, ha. Bitmain has too much money to bribe officials.
Do they still have that kind of money?
Enough, small companies can bribe, I'm sure they can still.
Pretty sad if mere 6-7 figure payments can impact legislation.
I'm pretty sure that can impact it even in the US.

 ...but fake news is so much cheaper.  Why waste the money on bureaucrats?

Speed/efficiency.
Seriously it gets to the point and keeps any opposite opinions from forming and bringing attention to it.
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April 09, 2019, 02:57:32 PM

Now where's my hat?

You can’t just waltz in here and demand a hat.

First you have to write a haiku.

I could donate this one...

The Mayor has spoken.
Perhaps if Proudhon came by...
Then, the bull, confirmed.



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April 09, 2019, 03:00:27 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)


Blah blah blah larger block blah blah


You have bcash and bsv with larger blocks, go there you have options. What part of we don't want larger blocks is so hard to comprehend

Yeah, I get it. But some here seem utterly oblivious to the consequences thereof.

And you feel that you grasp full consequences of bcash and bsv and their unlimited blocks ...?

For the most part, yes. I certainly feel I have a greater than average grasp of such consequences -- upon both Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Core -- than does the average Bitcoiner -- in any of the Bitcoin camps. For evidence of such, I need only look at the near-universally asinine replies issued as 'rebuttals' to the points I make.
I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.

The market picks the winners. The market doesn't always care about "superior technology".
That's fair if the argument is made that way. But using the market's decision as an argument for which is "better" in a technical argument doesn't make sense.

I don't think there's anything wrong with just outright stating that you're into Bitcoin because the most prominent representatives of BCash are a bunch of ass wipes that can not be trusted. And that's clearly the reasoning that most people arguing with jbreher are following. After all they're clearly incapable of having a technical debate about the matter. I fall into that camp as well, but I'm not going to pretend that I can hold a candle to jbreher on this topic. Never bothered getting into the technicalities of BTC so can't argue on his level.

If they were the only information that I had regarding BTC vs BCash I would be siding with BCash myself. So maybe some people in this thread should take a step back and consider the implications of their petty tribalism with regard to new coiners.

The game isn't over yet, and if all that new people have to go by is a bunch of nonsense vs technical arguments we could very well see BCash overtaking.

So for whatever reasons, people who care about BTC may want to consider whether or not they want to taint its image with retarded personal attacks and complete absence of rationality.

First of all, I don't believe you need to explain it on technical level why bigger blocks are not a permanent solution to unconfirmed transaction. if 1MB is not bigger enough what makes you think 1GB will be? read back and see my highway analogy and how impracticable it is.

Want a technical explanation of the impact of having every single transaction recorded on the blockchain and also the blockchain having a bigger blocks...

1. Database Size
Lets assume Bitcoin is now the standard peer-to-peer payment method. for Simplicity, let assume there will be 1,000,000,000 Transaction a day. Each transaction is approx 250b. (assuming there is only one input and one output). 41,666,666 / Hour or 6,944,444 /10Mins

This will mean we need a min of 1.736GB blocksize to accommodate the transactions.
So...
Every Block: 1.736GB
Every Hour: 10.416GB
Every Day:  250GB
Every Year: 91,250GB
is added to the blockchain

2. Hardware Requirements
Using a base line, and I am being conservative, of 30sec and 200MB (Should be about 1GB-2GB) of RAM to Validate and Confirm 1MB.
1,736MB would require approx 868mins or 14.4Hours  to confirm a block
1,736MB would require approx 347GB of RAM
1,736MB would cost $0.034 (0.02c per GB) or $1,825.00 per year (assuming your computer had enough SATA interfaces)

3. Internet Connection/Bandwidth required
Assuming everyone is on a 1GB fiber connection
1000mBIT / 8bit = 125MB/sec will take 13secs not including overheads, retry missed packet etc etc....
13secs to get to the first node (2 Available to Rely)
26secs to get to another 2 nodes (4 Available to Rely)
39secs to get to another 4 nodes (8 Available to Rely)
52secs to get to another 8 nodes (16 Available to Rely)
65secs to get to another 16 nodes (32 Available to Rely)
78secs to get to another 32 nodes (64 Available to Rely)
91secs to get to another 64 nodes (128 Available to Rely)
104secs to get to another 128 nodes (256 Available to Rely)
117secs to get to another 256 nodes (512 Available to Rely)
130secs to get to another 512 nodes (1024 Available to Rely)
143secs to get to another 1024 nodes (2048 Available to Rely)
156secs to get to another 2048 nodes (4096 Available to Rely)

You will also require a data plan of 7.5TB a month for below.
Every Block: 1.736GB
Every Hour: 10.416GB
Every Day:  250GB
Every Year: 91,250GB

So just to recap the above,

You would need to buy a machine capable of handling 1TB of RAM and possible a RAID Storage that can handle 91TB of Hard Drive Space
You would need and awesome internet connection, maybe two, one for your node the other for netflix
And lets say all this is possible and affordable, you will be spending half the day validation/confirming just 1 block.

From a mining point of view, there would be many orphan and rejected blocks given it takes a large amount of time to validate/confirmed blocks. It will also advantage the last miner who has found the block as they can start on the next block before anyone else.

Say good bye to decentralization of Bitcoin Nodes. Only the Rich and Powerful Corporations will run a full node and destroy the very fabric Bitcoin was built for - Decentralization

In other words, we need to scale a different way! Bigger Blocks/Dynamic Blocks are not the answer.

You are right on a few things, you can not argue with jbreher, because he doesn't actually know what he wants.

First it was "bigger blocks", so i pulled him up on that, and then it is a "no protocol-determined block limit" and now it is a "dynamic block size" that miners can decided what they want.

The other thing that you are definitely right about is that the "game is not over yet". But is sure isn't a game between BTC vs BCH/SV.

It is BTC against another tech that will change the way we look at this whole peer-to-peer payment system. not just another clone of Bitcoin but a real game changer! that is what i am worried about!
Internet speeds are irrelevant, as they increase rapidly as data usage increases. The capacity is not even remotely near its maximum (last I checked 100~1000 GBit for consumers were possible but simply not sensible right now), even if you exclude all the satellites that are being launched over the coming years.

Data plans irrelevant as most countries don't have "data plans" for home use and offer unlimited bandwidth instead.

Storage is irrelevant as well. Even 4 TB SSDs only cost a few hundred bucks these days. By the time storage became an issue we'll have 50-100 TB hard drives for a couple hundred dollars.

RAM seems the only sensible bottleneck if your numbers are accurate. $6 per GB currently and I haven't seen RAM size increase as much as other hardware. But that seems to be mostly because of a lack of utility rather than technical implausibility.

I also fail to see how your highway analogy is supposed to hold. Highways are inherently limited by physical space. Hardware inherently works in a different way. If we had arbitrary amounts of space that we could build on economically we'd have no problem with building even a personal lane for every single human in the world. And with hardware we actually do. It takes sometime to develop and scale, but so far there's no end in sight to how much data we can get from any one point on earth to any other.


I have no idea about the implications on mining and centralization though.


As far as a "real game changer" is concerned. That's already Bitcoin. It solves one of humanity's biggest issues. Banks fucking around and screwing the entire population. For a new "real game changer" to appear we would first require a new "real problem".
And Bitcoin hasn't even been around long enough to really get rid of the issues that come with banking, privatized profits, socialized losses, as well as the fiat toilet paper printing press.

It'll probably take a few decades until we can really identify new serious problems and have people give enough of a shit about them for some to try and someone to actually succeed in solving them as well as people actually jumping ship.

yes totally agree with you on your last point....

The highway analogy was not about space to build the highway, but rather it doesn't matter how many lanes are built, it will still eventually get to the same outcome as a 1 lane highway. You will still end up with traffic congestion, nothing has been solved. I was merely trying to associate with the fact bitcoin developers was not concerned with building more lanes, ie increase block size, but focusing on alternate transport methods or alternate transport habits. ie layer 2 scaling.

There also comes to a point where you may never be able to run full node from scratch. Based on a 30sec a 1MB validation time and i have read somewhere that it may be quadratically longer the bigger the block. will try and find the whitepaper on that one, but for arguments sake i used a linear model. You will be validating previous blocks and never catching up.

Just to confirm the 30sec theory, i'd shutdown my Bitcoin Node, was 8 blocks behind, fired it back up and it took about 5mins to catch up 10 blocks, two blocks was found while validating/catching up.

Maybe in developed countries the internet is more reliable, but what about us third world internet countries, like here in Australia! Struggling to even get 100Mbit business internet grade, let alone consumer grade. Typical speeds are more like 10mbit.

BTW 100-1000Gbit Internet available right now? who the fuck is offering that? i want one right now!





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April 09, 2019, 03:02:29 PM

Sparkswap, world’s first Lightning Atomic Swap exchange, now in Beta.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/sparkswap-worlds-first-lightning-atomic-swap-exchange-now-in-beta/
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April 09, 2019, 03:07:10 PM

Nobody quote Arriemoller please, I have him on ignore.



Wink

No you don't  Smiley

Good thing you quoted him otherwise I would not have seen that post as he's on ignore. Tongue
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April 09, 2019, 03:12:30 PM


https://twitter.com/Bitstamp/status/1115631078843326465

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April 09, 2019, 03:12:57 PM

Andy Pag, head of Mt. Gox Legal is stepping down.

https://www.coindesk.com/coinlabs-mt-gox-claim-may-hold-up-payouts-for-another-2-years

He says the issue with Coinlab (who has filed a massive claim) could delay reimbursements for 2 years.
Quote
Pag estimates that resolving whether or not Coinlab has a credible claim can take between 18 and 24 months.

Full Andy Pag letter on Scribd :
https://www.scribd.com/document/405467423/Andy-Pag#from_embed

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April 09, 2019, 03:19:47 PM

When in doubt, zoom out #Bitcoin


   

Statistic speaks  Smiley
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April 09, 2019, 03:20:32 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2019, 03:32:48 PM by Hueristic

Damn not only didn't catch up on this thread but I fell behind another 5 pages.

Having shit to do in life gets in the way.Smiley

and getting distracted by threads like this

http://www.forwardlook.net/forums/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31027&posts=116&start=1

and vids of rust removal doesn't help! Cheesy

This shit is cool.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Electrolysis+rust+removal&client=firefox-b-1-d&source=lnms&tbm=vid&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiMpsaq6cHhAhXR1VkKHd00DeAQ_AUIDigB&biw=1920&bih=920

I just lost an age wading through that '59 Sport Fury restoration. The amount of work, skill and dedication... Jeez.

Haha, 3 pages back for you! Cheesy

It's a great thread and I also applaud that level of dedication!
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April 09, 2019, 03:32:21 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2019, 03:53:30 PM by Hueristic

I love you guys, but can we please introduce a STFU Thursday for both JJG and jbreher. Thanks.

I hear Wednesday is open. Smiley
I love you guys, but can we please introduce a STFU Thursday for both JJG and jbreher. Thanks.
I love you guys, but can we please introduce a STFU Thursday for both JJG and jbreher. Thanks.

I hear Wednesday is open. Smiley

EXACTLY!!!!!!.. that's what I am talking about.  Makes me giddy just considering the matter.


I love you guys, but can we please introduce a STFU Thursday for both JJG and jbreher. Thanks.

I hear Wednesday is open. Smiley

Consensus is building for a STFU Wednesday for Jbear.
STFU Wednesday for both JJG and jbreher sounds good to me.

@Jbear, Pressure builds for a poll.
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April 09, 2019, 03:32:50 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

fuck Craig

Craig S. Wright is a fraud.
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April 09, 2019, 03:33:02 PM

Tether gone nuts... So many USDT printings in the last 30 minutes. Expecting a move soon!

https://twitter.com/BtcBlockBot/status/1115194884699324416



Why am I up at this ungodly hour ? Back to sleep with me.

I have been in bitcoin since a fair amount of time now.
But it still amazes me: this guy moved 36 MIOS USD spending 23.07 USD.
How much would it cost to move such amount of money with traditional banking system?
No to think about moving this amount in GOLD (this is why Bitcoin, digital gold, is actually BETTER than physical gold).


0 in Spain unless you are an ignorant pleb that doesn't know any better. Not the case of someone with that amount of money. So 0, and instant transfer.

It has been a good amount of DECADES since I pay ANYTHING for a transfer. The instant thing is recent though (it was like 24-48 hours before)

Can you transfer 32 Millions to the US for free? are you sure?
I bet you have free money transfer in SEPA (EU+ SUI) only.



Yep, you are right. The fee will surely be (way) higher (than BTC) in that case.

Again on yesterday's topic:
https://twitter.com/longhashdata/status/1115399939771617280

Costs in this infographic looks exagerated to me, at least for a domestic wire transfer.
They might consider "hidden" costs of monthly fees.

My bank charges me $0 for domestic or international wire transfers, anywhere on earth.
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April 09, 2019, 03:34:31 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5)

Good morning all.

Despite dreams of mud baths and an annoying tingling in my right toe I have managed to face another Tuesday. I am sorry..but they are just not a good fit for me. YMMV.
----

On the hourly chart, cat walks softly on rice paper
1h



This has been the root cause for the tingling I am fairly certain. A consolidation dip presenting itself on the 4 hour chart. Looks like a good place to top off bags over the next 24 hours or so perhaps.
4h


A highly exaggerated buy the dip moment before attacking long fib resistance at the 0.236   #dyor
D

#stronghands'19
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April 09, 2019, 03:36:19 PM



I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.


First of all, I don't believe you need to explain it on technical level why bigger blocks are not a permanent solution to unconfirmed transaction. if 1MB is not bigger enough what makes you think 1GB will be? read back and see my highway analogy and how impracticable it is.

Want a technical explanation of the impact of having every single transaction recorded on the blockchain and also the blockchain having a bigger blocks...

1. Database Size
Lets assume Bitcoin is now the standard peer-to-peer payment method. for Simplicity, let assume there will be 1,000,000,000 Transaction a day. Each transaction is approx 250b. (assuming there is only one input and one output). 41,666,666 / Hour or 6,944,444 /10Mins

This will mean we need a min of 1.736GB blocksize to accommodate the transactions.
So...
Every Block: 1.736GB
Every Hour: 10.416GB
Every Day:  250GB
Every Year: 91,250GB
is added to the blockchain

2. Hardware Requirements
Using a base line, and I am being conservative, of 30sec and 200MB (Should be about 1GB-2GB) of RAM to Validate and Confirm 1MB.
1,736MB would require approx 868mins or 14.4Hours  to confirm a block
1,736MB would require approx 347GB of RAM
1,736MB would cost $0.034 (0.02c per GB) or $1,825.00 per year (assuming your computer had enough SATA interfaces)

3. Internet Connection/Bandwidth required
Assuming everyone is on a 1GB fiber connection
1000mBIT / 8bit = 125MB/sec will take 13secs not including overheads, retry missed packet etc etc....
13secs to get to the first node (2 Available to Rely)
26secs to get to another 2 nodes (4 Available to Rely)
39secs to get to another 4 nodes (8 Available to Rely)
52secs to get to another 8 nodes (16 Available to Rely)
65secs to get to another 16 nodes (32 Available to Rely)
78secs to get to another 32 nodes (64 Available to Rely)
91secs to get to another 64 nodes (128 Available to Rely)
104secs to get to another 128 nodes (256 Available to Rely)
117secs to get to another 256 nodes (512 Available to Rely)
130secs to get to another 512 nodes (1024 Available to Rely)
143secs to get to another 1024 nodes (2048 Available to Rely)
156secs to get to another 2048 nodes (4096 Available to Rely)

You will also require a data plan of 7.5TB a month for below.
Every Block: 1.736GB
Every Hour: 10.416GB
Every Day:  250GB
Every Year: 91,250GB

So just to recap the above,

You would need to buy a machine capable of handling 1TB of RAM and possible a RAID Storage that can handle 91TB of Hard Drive Space
You would need and awesome internet connection, maybe two, one for your node the other for netflix
And lets say all this is possible and affordable, you will be spending half the day validation/confirming just 1 block.

From a mining point of view, there would be many orphan and rejected blocks given it takes a large amount of time to validate/confirmed blocks. It will also advantage the last miner who has found the block as they can start on the next block before anyone else.

Say good bye to decentralization of Bitcoin Nodes. Only the Rich and Powerful Corporations will run a full node and destroy the very fabric Bitcoin was built for - Decentralization

In other words, we need to scale a different way! Bigger Blocks/Dynamic Blocks are not the answer.

You are right on a few things, you can not argue with jbreher, because he doesn't actually know what he wants.

First it was "bigger blocks", so i pulled him up on that, and then it is a "no protocol-determined block limit" and now it is a "dynamic block size" that miners can decided what they want.

The other thing that you are definitely right about is that the "game is not over yet". But is sure isn't a game between BTC vs BCH/SV.

It is BTC against another tech that will change the way we look at this whole peer-to-peer payment system. not just another clone of Bitcoin but a real game changer! that is what i am worried about!

So:


I haven't seen a single decent response to jbreher so far, so there's some merit to this claim.

Also, the market cap argument some people brought up doesn't follow. Popularity does not imply superiority by technical standards.

Now you have. Bookmark it.
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April 09, 2019, 03:39:56 PM

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  Tongue
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April 09, 2019, 03:40:51 PM
Merited by kingcolex (1)

Good morning Bitcoinland.

It appears that we're pretty much where we were yesterday... currently $5227USD/$6950CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Isn't it just about time for another leg up?

I can't agree enough. What kind of sickness is it for people like roach, stolfi, jbreher, etc to come here and spout their non-stop garbage
I wouldn't bundle jbreher with stolfi. And The Roach is just on another plane of existence.

I agree. While all 3 may come across as trolls, they differ greatly.

Both Joe and Jorge have real working credentials.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/joebreher

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi

Jorge painted himself into a corner years ago with Bitcoin and stubbornly refuses to admit he was wrong.

Joe truly believes in Bitcoin but is simply a hard-core big blocker.

Roach, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have any credentials. He gives the impression of being a frustrated, bigoted little man who probably lives in Mom's basement and soothes his feelings of inadequacy by consuming too many carbs.

There's no comparison.
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April 09, 2019, 03:40:58 PM

Now where's my hat?

You can’t just waltz in here and demand a hat.

First you have to write a haiku.

I could donate this one...

The Mayor has spoken.
Perhaps if Proudhon came by...
Then, the bull, confirmed.



6
7
5

 Shocked

Even for native English speakers considering "Mayor" to be 2 syllables is common, but indeed it can be only one:

may·or
/ˈmāər/
But if you prefer May-or... then change the last word to "spoke".  It's more street like him anyway, yo.
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April 09, 2019, 03:42:35 PM

I love you guys, but can we please introduce a STFU Thursday for both JJG and jbreher. Thanks.

No.

I liked having the whole day, just for meeeeee.

Fuck Jbreher.  He should have to get his own day.  That fucker (see the variety in my vocabulary?).

Short, Sweet and to the point!

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April 09, 2019, 03:46:30 PM

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  Tongue

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.
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April 09, 2019, 03:47:56 PM

fuck Craig

Craig S. Wright is a fraud.
I call him Craig F. Wright

Figure out F 🤣
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