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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 4 (2.9%)
1-5% - 4 (2.9%)
6-10% - 1 (0.7%)
11-15% - 1 (0.7%)
16-20% - 3 (2.1%)
21-25% - 2 (1.4%)
26-30% - 2 (1.4%)
31-35% - 1 (0.7%)
36-40% - 5 (3.6%)
41-45% - 2 (1.4%)
46-50% - 7 (5%)
51-55% - 8 (5.7%)
56-60% - 2 (1.4%)
61-65% - 2 (1.4%)
66-70% - 9 (6.4%)
71-75% - 9 (6.4%)
76-80% - 10 (7.1%)
81-85% - 13 (9.3%)
86-90% - 10 (7.1%)
91-95% - 7 (5%)
96-99% - 10 (7.1%)
100% - 28 (20%)
Total Voters: 140

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21127529 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (19 posts by 10 users deleted.)
VB1001
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April 09, 2019, 06:35:48 PM

jbreher

Do not give so many laps, Bitcoin gold or oil, the rest are altcoins and shitcoins.

Oil or Gold = Bitcoin
Gasoline = Altcoins
Diesel = Shitcoins

Bitcoin is an asset.

Full Bitcoin !!!!!



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IeSua
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April 09, 2019, 06:38:43 PM





BULL-market officialy started .... good old China-FUD, is this the good old days back again?  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

Few words about this shit from Katherine Wu
https://twitter.com/katherineykwu/status/1115678209356500992
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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April 09, 2019, 06:41:16 PM

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  Tongue

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.
I am 16.15BTC away.


I'm a bit more than 16.15 BTC above my number.  You can have some of mine, since you are so nice and sweet.   Undecided
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April 09, 2019, 06:48:23 PM

Further Bcash technology (BCH and SV) is inferior, because its security model is weak.  

Incorrect. It is SegWit that has an inferior security model.

Quote
Its security model is weak for a number of reasons, all of which come back to a lack of effective decentralization.

I might agree that BCH and SV's currently actualized security is below that of BTC. As it is secured with less hash power. Which, to the extent that such might be the definition of 'decentralization' you are employing, comports with your statement. But that is not the same as a deficient security model.
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April 09, 2019, 06:49:20 PM

I'm a bit more than 16.15 BTC above my number.  You can have some of mine, since you are so nice and sweet.   Undecided
Let me know if he won't take it.
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April 09, 2019, 06:50:59 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2019, 07:02:15 PM by jbreher

Let me get this correct, you did advocate for larger blocks, but now you don't. You changed your mind.

You are incorrect. My advocacy has always been for no protocol-determined block limit.
Quote
What you really want is a "dynamic block size", that Miner's will set themselves, be it Small (80kB) or Large (8GB), doesn't matter.

Absolutely. Now you seem to have caught up.
I see where you're at, but I have a problem with the "bankers" (miners) being able to set technical parameters without the users' (user nodes) consent.

'Consent' of the users is always required. If the users will not accept what the miners are creating, they can abandon that chain. For better or for worse, this is the exact balance of power that was bequeathed to us by satoshi's design. Indeed, it is still the only check users have to this day, whether BTC, BCH, or SV. And the number of fully-validating non-mining wallet clients has fuck-all to do with this balance of power.

Quote
I know your opinion that "fully validating user nodes", or whatever you call the non-mining nodes, add no value to the network. I beg to differ. They can and will ignore malformed blocks. They verify.

Yes, and if they detect blocks that they refuse to accept, their only power is to ostracize themselves from the network that accepts that chain. That does not affect the network in the slightest. Sure, if some other chian is being built, they can be configured to follow that other chain. But that is their only option. They by definition cannot build the chain they desire.

Quote
And "verify don't trust" is probably the strongest of bitcoin's values. When that verification goes away, we - the bitcoiners, including yourself by your own definition - are going to have to fall back to trusting the "bankers".

This I would agree with whole-heartedly. But my ability to verify the chain is completely independent of any outside influence. There is no barrier for me to operate in such a trustless manner. As long as there is no prescribed barrier to such trustless operation, the network is as decentralized as it need be.

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That's why I am unable to understand the philosophy/motivations behind your stance.

Perhaps because you do not yet see that your desired implementation details do not support the objectives you claim to espouse.
JayJuanGee
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April 09, 2019, 06:52:10 PM

OK, JJG. Tell me what the plan is to deal with the fact that once blocks are persistently full, then average fees rise uncontrollably, average wait times raise uncontrollably, LN channel openings and closings get economically prohibitive, and number of new entrants gets hard-capped.

What is the plan, JJG - what is the plan?
The blocksize will be increased when necessary. Double the size, double the transactions. Not yet, though. The possible benefits are still outweighed by the risk of spam, which we all have seen. We haven't seen persistently full blocks eyt, though. So that's why it hasn't happened yet.

Personally, I agree with you that the block size limit will at some point be increased. Either that comes about, or BTC loses use case after use case to more capable blockchains.

However, my observation is that such an increase will be too little too late. How long do you think it will take to overcome the inertia already nurtured within the community -- who have been taught that large blocks are a detriment -- to accept the inevitability of such larger blocks? And after that, how long will it take to push out such a change? And preceding the above, how long will it take for the devs to lose their blinders on the topic, especially having to publicly admit they were wrong about the need to keep blocks small?

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Besides, daily use of LN for a vast majority of transactions might make it less necessary to open and close channels frequently. And bulk channel openings have been in development for a while already. Some are well past the proof of concept stage (alpha,beta, testnet? I'm not up to date on that ATM).

We were all supposed to be routinely using LN 'in six months' two years ago. Again, too little, too late.

N ot to mention the fact that persistently full blocks breaks lightning.

Quote
Schnorr sigs are coming. They improve on-chain privacy, save block space, and they will make coinjoin-like transactions easier - including aggregation of LN channel open/close operations.

A viable small scaling solution that will be routine sometime in the next four to six years.

Quote
All this might not amount to a detailed plan, but it does look like a friggin' good approximation in my opinion.

It ain't even an approximation of a plan until it has been clearly articulated and absorbed by the bulk of the community. When do you suppose the next FOMO spike ends up forcing the community's hand?

Yeah right.. everything is an emergency.. we better increase the block size now.  preventative medicine.

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April 09, 2019, 06:53:18 PM

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  Tongue

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.
I am 16.15BTC away.


I'm a bit more than 16.15 BTC above my number.  You can have some of mine, since you are so nice and sweet.   Undecided

I am also nice and sweet. I could do with that amount if Palmodar refuses. Would even merit you (not that I am selling merit or anything). Think about it.... I will be here.

P.S.: 19VBmRQVqrtNTGiwngZutwREagcKxJgVZM
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April 09, 2019, 07:15:33 PM

Personally, I agree with you that the block size limit will at some point be increased. Either that comes about, or BTC loses use case after use case to more capable blockchains.

What if it's primary use case is to be digital gold, to be traded primarily between central banks and the BIS?

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  Tongue

Could happen.  That's not even a 20% drop, and those happen all of the time in bitcoin land.  Maybe a bit greater than 60% odds of happening from here?

But then again, might not happen.

Does it make a big difference to your own holdings or psychology about your holdings?

If you start to get worried that a $1k drop might not happen from this particular price point, then you just buy 1/3 now, 1/3 on a $500 drop and $1/3 on the $1k drop (if it does happen)..

Then at least you have not put too much reliance into something that may or may not happen... .

Psychology. Much like LFC said, I'm comfortable with my amount of bitcoins and just want a nice even number.
By traditional investment standards, I'm actually way too heavy into BTC, but I'm comfortable with it.

You're right, I'll probably just average in for this last BTC.
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April 09, 2019, 07:18:12 PM

I can't agree enough. What kind of sickness is it for people like roach, stolfi, jbreher, etc to come here and spout their non-stop garbage
I wouldn't bundle jbreher with stolfi. And The Roach is just on another plane of existence.

I'm not saying they are the same. What I mean is the constant posting about the same topic over and over again that has already been answered by everyone here many times over. It seems like very obsessive behavior, especially since they know they can't convince anyone here of anything they say.

Well, I may not be the best arbiter of my own behavior. However, it seems to me that these argument-storms always start when someone takes one of my posts that has nothing to do with the topic, and feels compelled to reply with some nonsense that is clearly incorrect about the characteristics of either BCH or SV (or, as often, counterfactual nonsense about BTC itself). As if to publicly shame me for some aspect of 'The Other Bitcoins'. If you have not yet learned, I am not going to allow such bullshit to be the unchallenged record.

The obvious solution is obvious: don't spout lies that might require me to correct.

Quote
jbreher in particular is bad with this. Why does he keep posting his so called technical comments here, when he could be posting them in the development area of the forum or github. Perhaps because he is full of shit and knows it.

Quite the contrary. The technical issues are trivial and fully understood by the technocrats. It is the economic assumptions and game theory assumptions that are completely flawed. The technical sub-forum is dedicated to SW implementation, and occasionally to protocol implementation to hew to economic decisions that are outside the scope of that sub-forum. Accordingly, my comments are fully out of scope for the technical sub-forum.

I have always stated freely that I find the devs pretty much capable within their technical areas. But a bulletproof and faithful SW implementation of an inherently flawed design is still inherently flawed.
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April 09, 2019, 07:37:49 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2019, 07:47:53 PM by bitebits

What is it with 44KB?

I did several 43kb txs in a row. As soon as I tried 44 my kitten exploded.

Next time don’t use ETH.
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April 09, 2019, 07:48:54 PM

Relaxation level
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April 09, 2019, 07:50:46 PM

1. Database Size
Lets assume Bitcoin is now the standard peer-to-peer payment method. for Simplicity, let assume there will be 1,000,000,000 Transaction a day.

Visa's average sustained throughput is about 150 Million tx/day, according to Visa itself. So much for your first assumption. Do we want to be bigger than Visa? Of course we do. But let us start there.

Quote
Each transaction is approx 250b. (assuming there is only one input and one output). 41,666,666 6,250,000/ Hour or 6,944,444 1,041,667/10Mins

Average throughput is what is of concern here. Spikes can wait, as long as blocks are not persistently full. 37.5 GB/day, not 250 GB/day.

Quote
This will mean we need a min of 1.736GB 156MB blocksize to accommodate the transactions.
So...
Every Block: 1.736GB 156MB
Every Hour: 10.416GB 936MB
Every Day:  250GB 22.5GB
Every Year: 91,250GB 8.2TB
is added to the blockchain

[I'll leave the rest as an exercise for the reader]

Quote
So just to recap the above,

You would need to buy a machine capable of handling 1TB of RAM and possible a RAID Storage that can handle 91TB of Hard Drive Space

Yes, today the demands to be a fist-class citizen of the worldwide network of all money would seem to be daunting. Today. Tough titties. Sucks to be you.

It's as if you have never heard of Moore's 'Law', nor Nielsen's 'Law'. It is not as if we're going to displace Visa tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year. In the meantime, Blocapocalypse II will be here with the next FOMO spike.
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April 09, 2019, 08:00:52 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2019, 08:25:44 PM by jbreher

yes totally agree with you on your last point....

The highway analogy was not about space to build the highway, but rather it doesn't matter how many lanes are built, it will still eventually get to the same outcome as a 1 lane highway. You will still end up with traffic congestion, nothing has been solved. I was merely trying to associate with the fact bitcoin developers was not concerned with building more lanes, ie increase block size, but focusing on alternate transport methods or alternate transport habits. ie layer 2 scaling.

As I pointed out earlier, and I quote: Stupid analogy is stupid.

Quote
There also comes to a point where you may never be able to run full node from scratch. Based on a 30sec a 1MB validation time

According to statement by gmaxwell, Core 'nodes' do not verify back to the genesis block, relying instead upon checkpoints. I deigned to just accept his assertion on this point - it may be incorrect.

Quote
and i have read somewhere that it may be quadratically longer the bigger the block.

Yes. Operative word is _may_. One is able to construct an aberrant block that requires quadratic time to verify. Fortunately, this is a self-rectifying non-problem.

Quote
Just to confirm the 30sec theory, i'd shutdown my Bitcoin Node, was 8 blocks behind, fired it back up and it took about 5mins to catch up 10 blocks, two blocks was found while validating/catching up.

Folly of trying to limit the performance of our lifetime's second most significant technological achievement, only in order to satisfy having essentially zero skin in the game, is duly noted.

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April 09, 2019, 08:13:43 PM

I was 1 BTC away from my cryptowinter accumulation goal. I'm still holding out hope for a $1,000 discount from here  Tongue

I’m 2.1BTC away from a round number that I set myself as my total HODL stash. I might be able to reach it if we stay in this range until maybe Xmas.

If not then whatever, I have enough. Just a bit of OCD wanting to reach a certain figure.
I am 16.15BTC away.


I'm a bit more than 16.15 BTC above my number.  You can have some of mine, since you are so nice and sweet.   Undecided

I am only 4.5BTC away from 10btc. It'll take a while if bitcoin keeps rising like this. 5 was my first target and I accomplished it a few weeks ago. 10 is next. 21 is after that. I'll probably cash out to lambo (by lambo i mean whatever i like) before I reach 21 but who knows.

Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.
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April 09, 2019, 08:18:04 PM
Last edit: April 09, 2019, 08:30:32 PM by pressnegl

Don't agree with you, actually. The third picture should include much higher level of relaxation, don't you think so?
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April 09, 2019, 08:26:53 PM


Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.

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April 09, 2019, 08:44:34 PM


Tone Vays says sub $3k, even sub 2k is still possible. I might get 4-5 coins instantly if that happens.


A New low would be surprising, really surprising.
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April 09, 2019, 08:46:00 PM

https://twitter.com/RosaRyyti/status/1114918727877832704



She's a former Miss Universe candidate apparently.
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April 09, 2019, 08:50:30 PM

https://twitter.com/RosaRyyti/status/1114918727877832704



She's a former Miss Universe candidate apparently.

I suspect she has 'other ways' to obtain BTC rather than 'buy the dip'..just saying
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