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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 3 (3.3%)
1-5% - 3 (3.3%)
6-10% - 0 (0%)
11-15% - 0 (0%)
16-20% - 2 (2.2%)
21-25% - 2 (2.2%)
26-30% - 2 (2.2%)
31-35% - 0 (0%)
36-40% - 3 (3.3%)
41-45% - 2 (2.2%)
46-50% - 1 (1.1%)
51-55% - 2 (2.2%)
56-60% - 2 (2.2%)
61-65% - 0 (0%)
66-70% - 8 (8.8%)
71-75% - 5 (5.5%)
76-80% - 6 (6.6%)
81-85% - 10 (11%)
86-90% - 7 (7.7%)
91-95% - 7 (7.7%)
96-99% - 6 (6.6%)
100% - 20 (22%)
Total Voters: 91

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21123842 times)
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Biodom
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April 06, 2019, 02:29:56 AM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 03:10:27 AM by Biodom

If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak.  The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead.  And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.  


Yes, that's pretty much what I envison as well, see a couple of posts above.
If so, and played right, there would be a potential to make a LOT of dough, first on the upside, then either sell or short (for super-risk takers), then re-load for the ultimate adventure.
2013 did almost a 100x in a year or slightly less.
The rough equivalent would be to go to 35-45K on the first peak, "crash" down to 7-9K, then up again to 160-200K.
Numbers are very approximate, and could be 50% of what is indicated.
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HairyMaclairy
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April 06, 2019, 02:32:06 AM

^

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

Hmmm interesting.  Would need to chart that.  

jeez Hairy..that one chart..like raining meteorites down on us. buzz kill. now we have to worry about the 250sma...ffs

In the immortal words of Sheryl Crow:

No one said it would be easy
No one said it'd be this hard
No one said it would be easy
No one thought we'd come this far
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April 06, 2019, 02:41:17 AM

Jbear

The market has spoken.  

BSV is a classic shitcoin descending towards zero which will never regain its previous heights.  Some other shiny new shitcoin will come along and replace it as the "next Bitcoin". It has had its run.
Appeal to authority and generally irrelevant.

What the market has decided upon doesn't change the facts.

I don't think we disagree.  The market has decided (fact) that BSV has 1.7% the value of Bitcoin. 
The way you worded your post makes it seems as if you were implying that the market not buying a coin makes it technologically inferior. By that reasoning chart music would be the greatest musical accomplishment in all of human history and Amazon would be one of the greatest failures in the world of business.
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April 06, 2019, 02:46:27 AM

The thing is that if any new coin just by being "technologically superior" (not the case of BSVlol) would *easily* replace Bitcoin then crypto (all of it) as a store of value would be RIP.


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April 06, 2019, 02:46:49 AM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 02:57:18 AM by kurious

I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not.  The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore.  A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it.  But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break...  Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.

Agreed.  

How does this play with your fractals theory Hairy? Are the markets being front run as savy investors gear up for the next mania phase? Genuinely interested in your thoughts or anyone elses on the matter.

Yes I think the fractal is being front run by a couple of months by traders trying to get an edge.  But they are probably being too greedy right now and have gotten ahead of themselves.  

If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak.  The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead.  And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.  

Please note, this model is dependent on a massive price surge in 2019.  If we do not see a surge to $10k or above, then much less likely to eventuate.  

The chart below shows what I consider to be the more likely outcome, which is a reversion to the 2015 fractal.




Yep - front running creating a false start is actually even 'likely' (given expectations).

An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in.  

Then two runs makes sense, too

A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone.  Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather.  I can see that as a very plausible scenario.
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April 06, 2019, 02:51:44 AM

An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in.  

Then two runs makes sense, too

A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone.  Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather.  I can see that as a very plausible scenario.

Yes that would scare the pants off everyone, which is something Bitcoin delights in doing.  It becomes a real risk if we break up to $6k from here.  I would much rather a slow gentle climb - I don't want to see $6k right now. 
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April 06, 2019, 02:53:29 AM

...reversion to the 2015 fractal.

with a terrifying lower low spike to satisfy Elliot
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April 06, 2019, 02:54:48 AM
Merited by Biodom (1), Toxic2040 (1)

...reversion to the 2015 fractal.

with a terrifying lower low spike to satisfy Elliot

Fuck that Elliot guy I'm not giving away my riches to V8
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April 06, 2019, 02:59:34 AM

...reversion to the 2015 fractal.

with a terrifying lower low spike to satisfy Elliot

Fuck Elliot I'm not giving away my riches to V8

It might feasibly get close enough for 'squeaky bum time' - but it ain't gonna actually happen, your riches are safe.
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April 06, 2019, 03:02:39 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1), Toxic2040 (1), Lambie Slayer (1)

^

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

Hmmm interesting.  Would need to chart that.  


Here, just a sketch:

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April 06, 2019, 03:03:47 AM

Despite your protestations, you have utterly failed -- in any manner whatsoever -- to describe any core plan for dealing with the negative effects of full blocks.

You are not the boss of me. 

True. You're gonna do what you're gonna do. And you're not gonna do what you're not gonna do. One of those items on the latter list would appear to be to provide a description of the core plan for dealing with the negative effects of full blocks. For you have yet to do so, despite your repeated false statements that you already have.
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April 06, 2019, 03:12:49 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

Late, long thoughts - on the 'are we going faster?' subject:

we have all spotted it.  

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post)

Well, it will maybe rhyme - but it cannot be quite the same.  And that's... as sure as honey badger not giving a shit.

DYOR: This is speculation and as always can be dead wrong, but what the hell - ain't no walls to observe any more...

+1 WOsMerit

There will always be Walls to observe my friend.

I'm a bear troll,  and I didnt buy the dip nearly enough but actually I acknowledge that BTC will be worth a lot and I'll be rich. IDGAF

shitcoins will not go to $0 anytime soon, but will remain niche.

Look..I dont know what the guys saying..but he seems mostly harmless.

+1 WOsMerit


An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in. 

Then two runs makes sense, too

A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone.  Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather.  I can see that as a very plausible scenario.

Yes that would scare the pants off everyone, which is something Bitcoin delights in doing.  It becomes a real risk if we break up to $6k from here.  I would much rather a slow gentle climb - I don't want to see $6k right now. 

Moar froth and fomos of Delight...yes thank you.

+1 WOsMerit for each of you...make it a merit for everyone..what the hell.  Its airdrop Friday!


-----

She pauses her stalk for a dainty sip at the pool before warily continuing her hunt.

#stronghands
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April 06, 2019, 03:12:57 AM

^

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

Hmmm interesting.  Would need to chart that.  


Here, just a sketch:



Good one.  I will take a crack at it myself - unlikely to be today.
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April 06, 2019, 03:30:58 AM

^

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

Hmmm interesting.  Would need to chart that.  


Here, just a sketch:



Good one.  I will take a crack at it myself - unlikely to be today.

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April 06, 2019, 04:27:44 AM

...
It will be the mother of all bubbles ($300K+ possible).
...
..the crypto twitter/tradingview/bitcointalk seeming consensus of ~$90K-100K is overly conservative.
...
Keep in mind, if Bitcoin were Facebook, we'd still be at pre-IPO levels (circa 2009)
...


Quite.
HairyMaclairy
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April 06, 2019, 05:26:25 AM

Ok I have had a bit of a look and I can’t come up with any models which support $12k+ before November 2019 at the very earliest even with front running so I am not going to worry about that as a possibility.
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April 06, 2019, 05:32:41 AM

Despite your protestations, you have utterly failed -- in any manner whatsoever -- to describe any core plan for dealing with the negative effects of full blocks.

You are not the boss of me. 

True. You're gonna do what you're gonna do. And you're not gonna do what you're not gonna do.

That b call Koreck.

One of those items on the latter list

There is no list, except you created your own list (aka demand)

would appear to be to provide a description of the core plan for dealing with the negative effects of full blocks. For you have yet to do so, despite your repeated false statements that you already have.

I described the BTC plan sufficiently for my own liking, and I am investing in bitcoin, in spite of peeps like you concluding that the BTC plan is not specific or clear or elaborate or "future proof" enough.

I am not investing into bcash variants, even though peeps like you believe that bcash variants have superior plans than BTC and are already ready to scale the fuck out of things with their 45 lane roads and much less than 1 lane of traffic....

In other words, a supposed plan that meets your 45 plus lanes specifications, does not cause a lot of folks to conclude that BTC is inferior to bcash variants, in spite of those bcash variants having supposed superior, specific, more clear & elaborate and "future proof"plans, as compared with BTC.

In other words, whatever BTC plan is there and whether I am able or know exactly what it is or explain it to your satisfaction remains good enough for me (and presumably a whole lot of others), so I am sticking with the babe that brought me to this dance... because she seems better than those other slimy sluts (aka bcash variants). 

Sounds good?
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April 06, 2019, 05:38:15 AM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 05:37:50 PM by Biodom

Ok I have had a bit of a look and I can’t come up with any models which support $12k+ before November 2019 at the very earliest even with front running so I am not going to worry about that as a possibility.

Logically and TA-based, yes, but how about the fuh-damentals?
Was there a model in Jan 2013 indicating that in April 2013 the price would be 1800% higher?
Absolutely not, yet it happened.

Where is your "leap of faith", HM?
Toxic2400 also drew something that might happen, plus or minus.

Personally, I am a bit bored with all models that draw neat bowl like movements projecting into 2023.
Where is the fury of the exponent of the adoption stick?
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April 06, 2019, 06:04:38 AM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 06:43:10 AM by JayJuanGee
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Ok I have had a bit of a look and I can’t come up with any models which support $12k+ before November 2019 at the very earliest even with front running so I am not going to worry about that as a possibility.

Logically and TA-based, yes, but how about the fuh-damentals?
Was there a model in Jan 2013 indicating that in April 2013 the price would be 1800% higher?
Absolutely not, yet it happened.

Where is your "leap of faith", HM?
Toxic2400 also drew something that might happen, plus or minus.

Personally, I am a bit bored about all models that draw neat bowl like movements projecting into 2023.
Where is the fury of the exponent of the adoption stick?

Your post is hilarious, and maybe even suggests that some of the current BTC price prediction models do not sufficiently account for the s-curve adoption and the underlying nature of bitcoin as an asset class (a kind of currency/commodity) that has never before been seen, which has decent chances of causing exponential growth cycles that have never been seen... so BTC as a "new" paradigm shifting asset class does not fit existing price prediction models.

I think that we can still be prepared for possible outrageous exponential bitcoin price behavior without exactly putting such situation into a model.... something like that happened in late 2017 when bitcoin outperformed by 3-5x the vast majority of bullish scenarios and nearly 2x of many of the pie in the sky scenarios...

Of course, there were even more fringe and even higher bullish scenarios before the 2017 run, such as the 2015/2016 AdamstgBit repetition BTC price prediction of $32k that did not quite play out in our last UP cycle to $19,666.
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April 06, 2019, 06:25:53 AM
Merited by Globb0 (2), mindrust (2), JayJuanGee (1)



https://bitcoinvisuals.com/misc-puell-multiple

Good morning WO,s

It seems that follows the pattern 2015, until 2019.
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