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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 4 (3.5%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (0.9%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (1.7%)
$85K to $90K - 10 (8.7%)
$90K to $95K - 15 (13%)
$95K to $100K - 26 (22.6%)
>$100K - 57 (49.6%)
Total Voters: 115

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26513921 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Cryptotourist
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January 27, 2020, 08:18:37 AM

Btw, I was walking in Amsterdam last evening, first time I saw one of these ...

.... instantly loved it, and hopped in for a quick Spa. Grin

#nohomo
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January 27, 2020, 08:37:35 AM

^
Naaaah skipped it .... bob might be there and I know he loves his privacy
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January 27, 2020, 08:44:46 AM
Merited by mindrust (2), vapourminer (1)


Increment%   30.00%         Amount to sell%   5.00%   
   
   Sell Price         BTC balance      BTCSellamt   $ValueHoldings   soldValue   soldTotal
   $11,111.00   10.00000000      0.50000000   $111,110.00        $5,555.50        $5,555.50
   $14,444.30   9.50000000      0.47500000   $137,220.85        $6,861.04        $12,416.54
   $18,777.59   9.02500000      0.45125000   $169,467.75        $8,473.39        $20,889.93
   $24,410.87   8.57375000      0.42868750   $209,292.67        $10,464.63        $31,354.56
   $31,734.13   8.14506250      0.40725313   $258,476.45        $12,923.82        $44,278.39
   $41,254.37   7.73780938      0.38689047   $319,218.41        $15,960.92        $60,239.31
   $53,630.67   7.35091891      0.36754595   $394,234.74        $19,711.74        $79,951.04
   $69,719.88   6.98337296      0.34916865   $486,879.91        $24,344.00        $104,295.04
   $90,635.84   6.63420431      0.33171022   $601,296.68        $30,064.83        $134,359.87
   $117,826.59   6.30249410      0.31512470   $742,601.40        $37,130.07        $171,489.94
   $153,174.57   5.98736939      0.29936847   $917,112.73        $45,855.64        $217,345.58
   $199,126.94   5.68800092      0.28440005   $1,132,634.23        $56,631.71        $273,977.29
   $258,865.02   5.40360088      0.27018004   $1,398,803.27        $69,940.16        $343,917.45
   $336,524.53   5.13342083      0.25667104   $1,727,522.04        $86,376.10        $430,293.56
   $437,481.89   4.87674979      0.24383749   $2,133,489.72        $106,674.49        $536,968.04
   $568,726.46   4.63291230      0.23164562   $2,634,859.80        $131,742.99        $668,711.03

I think I have a problem with this strategy, at $70-90k I would rather try to squeeze more FIAT out of my btc than waiting for a higher price because this range will likely be the next ATH. (debatable)


Of course, i was trying to tailor somewhat for Searing, and I have some problems with starting so early, and yeah, he might not be very inclined to prepare for such high prices, either.

So, yeah, instead of being a steady percentage all the way up, the tweaking could be like an inverted bell curve in order to attempt to account for where you anticipate the price to go, and then transition into a kind of bell curve for where you anticipate the peak to go.  The inverted bell curve might draw more in the beginning because of a kind of risk averseness (buying into the FUD spreading scenarios) and then a kind of letting off of selling in the event that you believe that if the price gets above a certain point then it is likely to make it to a higher point that kind of results in a bell curve that anticipates withdrawing a bit more value, like you suggested, mindrust, in order to account for where you anticipate the peak to be.

Personally, I have created a more steady system for myself that continues to draw out value all the way up, but the amount of value that is drawn out is quite a bit smaller.. like in the less than .75% for every 10% rise... I might later decide to take out a BIGGER chunk with a more spontaneous approach... not sure yet.. but let's say that I exercise a lot of conservative withdrawing, and then the price kind of shoots up by doubling or tripling in value in a month, then I might get the sense that we are overly hyper, and I could make a chunk withdraw of 10% or 15%, which would be way larger than my usual conservative withdrawals, but it still would not be so much that I am really hurt in the event that the price stays irrational to the upside for a longer period of time than expected



I would also never sell anything till it reaches above the last ATH so selling at $11k, 14k, 18k and even 24k is just throwing your money away. (this is pretty much not debatable for me) From those price points btc may go down again and create an opportunity to buy back more bitcoins but, is it worth it?

I am kind of a similar opinion to you, especially when it comes to a kind of $17,500 to $24k zone... .. but still trying to account for some people getting worried about various corrections that could take place, even though many of us reasonably expect that FOMO will start to drive the price upwards at a certain point in time that will come to seem obvious after the fact - meaning that the BTC price never returns back down to those levels.  My personal strategy does just say fuck it and I do sell all the way up, but I have already decided that a long time ago that my new threshold of not giving a shit is above $5k.. but the amounts are still relatively small... (in the ball park of .75% for every 10% BTC price rise) even though, admittedly, those sales along the way up do add up, too.. yet part of my rationale for a lot of this tends to be the fact that I feel that I kind of overinvested in the $250 to $500 range, so I am not really too concerned about continuing to sell relatively small amounts all the way up.. without even hardly thinking about the matter... and just saying to myself "fuck it".. "I already overinvested in the $250 to $500 range, and who cares if the odds are pretty damned great that the BTC price is going to go shooting up.. I am doing quite well to take out some dollars along the way.. to unambiguously pay me off for my overallocation decisions in 2014-2016-ish."


You should sell your btc only when it is worth it. At $11k? It is definitely not.

That seems to be true, but I am only attempting to tailor to Searing... and he had already stated that as one of his targets.  Maybe he should not sell as much, but selling a little bit might convert him into a much stronger hand.

Another thing is that searing is way older than you.. and he has way more BTC (especially compared to his fiat reserves), so those kinds of factors can cause HODLers to become quite a bit less secure with taking so much risk with gains that they have already made.. and he has a lot of gains from his accumulating of BTC in 2014-2015 that he did not really realize (and seeming to regret not realizing more of those gains in earlier times)... so yeah, there might be some leaving of value on the table, and some need to find an amount that makes him comfortable, without blowing too much of his load too early.. that is a kind of risk for anyone selling before $26k-ish...

I would start dumping a bit more % but also start doing it when it goes above $30k. Till then I would keep DCA'ing. My DCA amount would go lower and lower while the price climbing up but I would still keep buying.

Well if you had 10x more BTC that you acquired in 2014-2016, you might be less inclined to keep accumulating BTC when you already have a lot of BTC, relative to your fiat wealth or some other wealth that you would like to have such as lambos, hookers and blow... or property such as real estate and yachts.

No matter what, there is no single strategy for all people, even if there may be some very convincing BTC price prediction models regarding certain price areas that might pass through quickly and never return to those levels.. which are also not guaranteed, even if they are very convincing.  In any event, there can be different ways that individual HODLers play their BTC cards differently to tailor their plays to their own situation and still each of them ends up accounting for the various prediction models while making decently different kinds of allocations and/or taking of profits along the way in order to NOT be holding so many BTC - even if they are quite like to go up in value.. but still preparing for both price directions and able to profit considerably from BTC prices going up in value, even if s/he has taken a decent amount of profits off of the table, s/he has a sufficiently amount of value that is still in BTC so that s/he is still making a lot of money while s/he sleeps (can that still be referred to as HODL sleep, even if a decent portion of the BTC has been sold on the way up?  I think so). 

Sometimes a HODLer could sell 50% or more of his BTC holdings, and still end up making out like a bandit.  Let's say that a HODLer has 50 BTC and decides to sell 50% of his holdings at $69k, because he is a chickenshit fuck about BTC prices going above $70k.  So, he ends up selling 25 BTC which adds up to $1,725,000, but the price keeps going up, but he really does not need more cash, so at that point, he has to decide whether to cash out some more BTC at $125,000 or just to let it ride.  Dynamics sometimes will change a bit once the BTC HODLer has taken out a decent amount of cash (way more than the amount that s/he really needs to live comfortably), and NO longer is feeling  BTC rich while being fiat poor...  Wink
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January 27, 2020, 08:46:51 AM

DJIA is down. The Fed will have to print more trillions of $$$.
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January 27, 2020, 09:30:39 AM


https://twitter.com/brittclennett/status/1221696974782705664?s=21

Italy is serious with the corona virus....
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January 27, 2020, 09:32:08 AM

https://twitter.com/cryptobull/status/1221394287616765952?s=21

Let’s hope so!
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January 27, 2020, 09:37:40 AM

Ready for take off and 12h flight

The dude will be silence for some time now !

Into HODLsky
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January 27, 2020, 09:38:06 AM

This weekend has to go up, otherwise we will visit 8,100 or 8,000.

I said it on friday,good, 8,600 Cool
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January 27, 2020, 09:51:16 AM


No. They just waste time and money.
https://twitter.com/NarrativeResist/status/1221724811556261888
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January 27, 2020, 11:06:55 AM

Ready for take off and 12h flight

The dude will be silence for some time now !

Into HODLsky

12h? mmmhhh, you going to LAS?

Have a nice HODLsky!
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January 27, 2020, 11:59:46 AM

FilBTCfilBTC says down before up. Still more or less sideways.  Observing a small bid just now to $8728
https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1221596612335669250
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nothing to see here


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January 27, 2020, 12:04:35 PM

I see there are a lot of idiots with stupid messages about Kobe.
I miss the time before windows (MS-DOS) when computers were used only by people
with slightly higher intelligence (more than 80)

RIP Kobe

Seconding that.

I seriously don't want to live on this planet any more.


The more people, the more problems.
Nature regulates itself. Sit back, relax and just watch.

Read and imprint this:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safety-china/

Buy an UV-C light source and protection goggles. Contaminate whole rooms with more than 20 watt quartz lamps (phillips).
But read into usage do's and dont's, UVC is harmful if not used under safety precautions.
Most of them produce ozone via ionization, except the phillips lamps, they filter that particular wavelength.


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nothing to see here


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January 27, 2020, 12:06:18 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)


Yes, transmission within 14 days of incubation time.
Temperature checks (almost) useless.
Obscure security that isn't.
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January 27, 2020, 12:26:17 PM

'Viagem segur-
a' is really hard to fit
in a nice haiku.
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January 27, 2020, 12:36:06 PM

WTF guys?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm no racist, but given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP...
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January 27, 2020, 12:36:20 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Ready for take off and 12h flight

The dude will be silence for some time now !

Into HODLsky

Safe flight El Dude
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January 27, 2020, 12:50:55 PM

Where art thou gembitz   Kiss
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January 27, 2020, 01:02:03 PM

Where art thou gembitz   Kiss
50/50 odds: Somewhere around Tucson's annual gem show, correct?
http://www.tucsongemshows.net/coming.html
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January 27, 2020, 01:08:42 PM
Merited by mindrust (1)

WTF guys?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm no racist, but given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP...

The outcome of over-controlled population. The worst in a human gets suppressed for ages, in critical times it breaks loose. This is just a symptom of a culture that was "normalized" too much.
Just saw a video on titter (pun intended) of two men who got the throat cut because they were from wuhan. Police and all surrounders wear masks. I saw it on the mobile, so i can't post a link. (turkish source, so i can't check). This will probably grow to dramatic dimensions. Mankind is overdue, as it seems.
To anyone who asks himself why ancient higher developed civilizations "disappeared" so quickly...

As far as i remember, the panic level at SARS and MERS or Zika times were way lower than today. "Social" media also contributes to rising fear levels, obviously.

----

Bitcoin charts look promising again, quite some shorts liquidated according to titter's"whalealert". We have yet to see economical consequences of the china situation, factories shut down atm, etc...
Change a parameter in a complex system, watch the whole thing change in many aspects.
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January 27, 2020, 01:25:20 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), psycodad (1), ErisDiscordia (1)

WTF guys?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm no racist, but given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP...

1) I do agree that China needs a serious review of many of their internal and external policies. Things that worked great in the old days (improper food handling, no government regulations, no proper standards of hygiene that are enforced, no real quality control or oversight) seem great when populations are small and stakes are low but wind up causing serious issues when populations grow.

This is an old issue, I think of it as a "shitting in the streets" sort of problem. When there are very few people in a location, shitting in the streets is not a big issue. Once you pass a critical mass of people living in an area then doing so starts to spread major diseases. Which is why you have "governments" formed to outlaw shitting in streets and why you then have people jumping up and saying "I always shat in the streets and I will defend my right to shit in the streets to the death" or whatever. Thus forms the first political parties :-)

Note: This is not unique to China. Check out the recent spate of problems in the US with vegetables being contaminated with what appear to be human feces. This is an interesting problem. My theory is that in the old days illegal immigrants picked the vegetables and being experienced learned not to shit in the fields. When they were removed and replaced by less experienced domestic laborers these new employees did not recognize the importance of not shitting in the fields and.... shat in the fields. This can be fixed with proper training, field port-a-potties, and breaks to shit in a box however that will drive up labor costs. Such is life.


2) Anytime one says "I'm not a (whatever), BUT" the addition of the word "BUT" tends to invalidate the first part of the sentence. It's a cheap and pointless way to try and say you're not an "X" while saying something that could be construed as support of "X". Just say the statement and be done with it.

So just say "Given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP..." and be done with it. :-)
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