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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25892444 times)
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LUCKMCFLY
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January 13, 2020, 04:36:19 PM

A large influx of Bitcoin Investment.

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With the current price of BTC around $8,000, the influx of capital per day should be greater than $14.4 million [144 blocks/day × 12.5 BTC/block × $8,000]. As pointed out by Tuur Demeester, for the price to remain at the $8,000 level until halving, there should be a $1.72 billion influx of capital into Bitcoin.



According to Meltem Demirrors:

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“There are bigger firms involved in Bitcoin. So I think that directionality in a much deeper market for Bitcoin is going to change the way people trade around the time of the halving… “I think it’ll be interesting to see how people trade around the halving – particularly some of the high-frequency trading firms.”

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/could-3rd-bitcoin-halving-favor-bears-bitcoins-shifting-narrative/


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January 13, 2020, 04:48:40 PM

^ Oh hey could 'we' do one of those for WO's?

Code:
WO Bitcoin value in the coming years:

Bulls 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025





Hodlers 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025






Bears 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025







With this enough.
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January 13, 2020, 04:52:00 PM

How are you doing? I almost forgot to check the price lately. Seems I'm doing pretty good.

I just have bought my ever first bitcoin.
Let me get some memories of my journey. That was indeed a good decision I had ever taken. I am almost 1.8x at the moment  Cheesy
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January 13, 2020, 04:58:21 PM


Same old story.
Those graphs are very funny, but they need to be adjusted or redrawn every time.

Stock to flow model has been stable since 2012. Predicting correctly Bitcoin prices even before the first halving, without need to parameters tuning.


These graphs can be interpreted in the same way as the predictions of the times in which Bitcoin has died.
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January 13, 2020, 05:26:07 PM
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While looking at CME website hunting for informations on Bitcoin Options launch I stumbled into this:

Quote
Block Cheese futures and options are now available for trade! Learn more about the latest Dairy contract from CME Group. http://spr.ly/60101bhJn


https://twitter.com/CMEGroup/status/1216745991484985344/photo/1

Hodling cheddar is way more difficult than hodling corn!

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January 13, 2020, 05:57:29 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2020, 06:36:18 PM by JayJuanGee
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See the triangle from 2014? It took 1 year to all the way down. Only then we started to consolidate for a year. Then rise. Looks like our current triangle is about to take MORE than 2 years. Maybe even 3. Fuck.

I have heard this kind of seemingly negative talk coming out of your keyboard previously, and such pessimisms did not seem to play out as negatively as you had been preparing yourself.  

I heard the opposite from you, too, even recently.. was it last week or two weeks ago?...hahahahahaha.. about "all in" and all that.... go figure?  (your all over the place, mindrust... hahahahaha)

Hey, nothing wrong with preparing both financially and psychologically for the worser-case scenario possibilities.


I just doubt that attributing too much weight to chart lines (and triangles or whatever other shape you can identify therein) should get you all in a tizzy about "likely price direction" towards the down or sideways or how long it could take to surpass previous ATH or to reach new ATH for next cycle.

I largely agree with the seemingly relevant and material facts as you highlighted them..... In that regard, yeah, it took a year to go down from prior ATH to consolidation arena in both 2014 and 2018... so very similar there regarding how long it took to for BTC to apparently get to the bottom of the cycle (that is presuming that December 2018 and $3,124 is the bottom of this particular cycle).

So far, the 2015 and 2019, consolidation periods seem to be playing out differently from one another, meaning that 2019 is ahead of what had happened in 2015.  The mere seeming fact that 2019 is coming out ahead of 2015 or that it has been a bit more bullish and less painful than 2015, does not automatically imply that more correction or consolidation has to happen before BTC can resume with up and to reach the earlier ATH or to make new ATHs of our next upward's cycle (presuming such a cycle is going to come).

Again, I am NOT proclaiming to know anything meaningful about BTC's future price direction, and I am just a bit more bothered by what had seemed to have been your attempting to assign some kind of value regarding what seems to be necessary to happen that does not even logically make a lot of sense (unless you are listening to people who are failing and refusing to understand BTC fundamentals and some of the upwards power that it has).... which in essence, you seem to be suggesting that because we had so much UP in recent times, we need to experience more DOWN or SIDEWAYS before BTC prices are capable of resuming UP... and such logic seems almost opposite of what seems logical to me.  

To me, it seems that the various bullish spurts upwards justifies that either surpassing our old ATH or making new ATHs could end up playing out ahead of schedule, and I am NOT even putting a lot of weight into those "ahead of schedule" or "front running" hypotheses, but only highlighting those ahead of schedule or front running hypotheses as equally plausible theories to what seems to be your either "down before up" or "sideways before up" hypothesizations.


I hope It doesn't happen that way and we'll see a moon rocket straight to the new ATH after the halvening.

The only good news is on these charts, 200 Weekly MA is pretty much the safest bottom and you can't lose  if you buy from that support line.

Fair enough that none of us wants down before up and that we prefer up, and sure continuing to buy BTC remains a good practice...  including employing ongoing dollar cost averaging and even seeing that we could get more down or even be close to the bottom or prudent thoughts to have in terms of recognizing buying and stacking sats as likely to pay off in the long run... whether it takes 6 months in a more bullish scenario or more than 36 months in a less bullish scenario.

Even a less bullish scenario, of reaching ATHs again in 2023 would still give good overall returns from our current price because that is about 2.4x increase from our current price.  None of us should be complaining about those kinds of levels in terms of relative returns, even if it seems a bit bearish, currently.... and I still cannot really point out any other asset that I would rather be "in" in terms of upside potential when projecting out 2-4 years from today.

Now looking back at the 2013-2017 bowl, it looks so tiny. Damn.

Does not look tiny to me.  but maybe in a few years, it might look tiny.. especially if we get any kind of price rise that is even close to the one that happened between late 2015 and late 2017....  which was around 78x...** ... even if we get half of that... which might be too optimistic.. but still within realms of possible... .. maybe 10x to 20x would still cause the 2013 to 2017 bowl to begin to look small... perhaps?  Perhaps?  Depends, in part, upon how long it takes to play out, and I would agree that it can be quite difficult to really conjecture with any kind of meaningful confidence, while we are in the midst of figuring out where we are going, exactly...  

** Note:  By the way, I frequently, like to use $250 as my late 2015 bouncing off point because I consider that $250 price to be a fair foundation for where we started in 2015 rather than the actual low that was something like $152.... and fuck $152.. even though there were a couple of sub $200 BTC price spikes in early and in late 2015... I still consider $250 to be a more fair representation of our 2015 jumping off point.. and the beginning of that particular bull market.  Regarding our next jumping off point,  I doubt that we can know that yet, because we are in the midst of still figuring out whether the bottom is "in" and where the fuck we are going, exactly.. are we in a bull market or a bear market, and even though since about May 2019 the evidence seems to support that we had transitioned into a bull market, that tentative assertion NO longer seems to be as strong as it had seemed to have been in May/June-ish... and sure, we are witnessing a lot of assertions that we currently are in a bear market, and I still don't find those assertions to be convincing, but future price performance will clarify these matters and thereby clarify what to consider for our reasonable BTC price jumping off point for our next exponential BTC price rise (presuming that one is coming at some point).
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January 13, 2020, 06:08:35 PM

While looking at CME website hunting for informations on Bitcoin Options launch I stumbled into this:

Quote
Block Cheese futures and options are now available for trade! Learn more about the latest Dairy contract from CME Group. http://spr.ly/60101bhJn


https://twitter.com/CMEGroup/status/1216745991484985344/photo/1

Hodling cheddar is way more difficult than hodling corn!



Everything eatable is more difficult to HODL cause it’s going to rotten or something also I don’t waste foods so yeah indeed I will eat instead of HODL cheddar  Kiss
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January 13, 2020, 06:18:23 PM

While looking at CME website hunting for informations on Bitcoin Options launch I stumbled into this:

Quote
Block Cheese futures and options are now available for trade! Learn more about the latest Dairy contract from CME Group. http://spr.ly/60101bhJn


https://twitter.com/CMEGroup/status/1216745991484985344/photo/1

Hodling cheddar is way more difficult than hodling corn!



Everything eatable is more difficult to HODL cause it’s going to rotten or something also I don’t waste foods so yeah indeed I will eat instead of HODL cheddar  Kiss

Technically, it's called cost of carry!

Btw: I found something on the CME website
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January 13, 2020, 06:26:20 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2020, 06:56:56 PM by HI-TEC99

If you use firefox upgrade it immediately. It has a serious bug that's already being exploited.


https://www.pcworld.com/article/3513538/mozilla-firefox-vulnerability-is-so-bad-the-us-government-is-urging-users-to-patch-it-immediately.html

Quote
This Firefox vulnerability is so bad, the U.S. government is urging users to patch it immediately

Why no mention of mobile?
Searched until I got tired of it.
Anyway I made sure Firefox on my daily drive linux box is updated.
Android tells me my mobile Firefox browser is up to date, but it shows an older version number than the one cited in the warning.  So I'll refrain from using it for now.
If the mobile browser is actually safe, they should say so.

Androidpolice says upgrade to mobile version 68.4.1

https://www.androidpolice.com/2020/01/09/mozilla-firefox-zero-day-patch/

Quote
Firefox users are advised to update to desktop version 72.0.1 and mobile version 68.4.1 as soon as possible.

Mozilla mentions the mobile version's security fix here.

https://www.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/android/68.4.1/releasenotes/
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January 13, 2020, 06:28:19 PM


https://twitter.com/CMEGroup/status/1216781892042809346

And then they say that BTC is dead.
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January 13, 2020, 06:36:44 PM


Shoot me down here if I’m wrong but these things are usually designed to suppress the price are they not?
They just allow shorting & not even physically backed bitcoin trading?
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January 13, 2020, 06:39:33 PM
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Shoot me down here if I’m wrong but these things are usually designed to suppress the price are they not?
They just allow shorting & not even physically backed bitcoin trading?

I have a feeling that we have to suck up things like this in order to achieve mass adoption.
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January 13, 2020, 06:40:12 PM


Shoot me down here if I’m wrong but these things are usually designed to suppress the price are they not?
They just allow shorting & not even physically backed bitcoin trading?

Exactly, many people said that the futures market does not affect the price of Bitcoin, false, it is pure manipulation, but as P_Shep says, this is part of the trip to the moon.
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January 13, 2020, 06:42:43 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2020, 06:53:48 PM by JayJuanGee

Shorting into a bull market is fine if you do it intermittently. We’re still in a baby bull market so when we get rejected at certain price intervals I’m sure you can make money shorting.

If you continue to short into a bull market then you’re going to end up REKT especially if you think you’re going to keep doing it as we approach & pass the halving when the price is likely to go parabolic.

Stay smart, don’t get REKT.

Note - I don’t actively trade any way. imo it’s for chancers & at times morons. Buy & HODL= the key to success.

For chancers and morons? well, I like to be one of them if it makes me earn money. The fact is that I have been trading already for 2 decades, and I can guarantee you that I made most of my profits trading instead of holding. Much more profitable after i shifted from traditional markets to crypto in 2011, because there is so high volatility (aka manipulation..)
Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

You don't sound smart enough to have made a lot of money in bitcoin (you refer to it as "crypto", so right there shows your seeming lack of understanding) trading, especially if you have been betting down and asserting that bitcoin is never getting to another ATH...   You seem to NOT understand what the fuck is bitcoin.  But, hey, do what you gonna do and show us all how smartie panties you happen to be.   Wink  Teach us a lesson.   Tongue

Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

Quoted for future ridicule Wink

 Huh

He wrote "I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH...
So he was meaning the opposite.
Or is my english so bad?

Double negation, yeah. So he does indeed expect Bitcoin to get close to last ATH eventually... Unless his english is worse than ours.

 Grin
Still there are some valid points in his arguments, despite his self proclaimed experience (sry, just trying to be realistic here).
I'm bullish for the long run, but the run might be indeed - very long. The 2017 "bubble" wasn't healthy nor helpful to the market, imo.

I doubt that there is any need to give such a wannabe expert too much benefit of the doubt.  Yeah, of course, he could end up getting lucky and being correct, but so what?  That does not mean that he really knows anything or is making any kind of meaningful assessment, just because he says he is such a smart "shorter" and he barely has even participated in this thread in the past, so I doubt that he was "as correct" in the past as he is proclaiming to have been. Comes off as a "smarter than the rest of us" disingenuous posing dweeb to me.  But what do I know?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 13, 2020, 06:52:28 PM


Shoot me down here if I’m wrong but these things are usually designed to suppress the price are they not?
They just allow shorting & not even physically backed bitcoin trading?

I have a feeling that we have to suck up things like this in order to achieve mass adoption.

There is a saying that's like "When you buy a dog, you have to welcome the fleas too".
I also see "BTC futures" like VB1001, but finally we'll have to swallow this side-effects.
Mass adoption could mainly cure this, i guess.
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January 13, 2020, 07:04:49 PM

Shorting into a bull market is fine if you do it intermittently. We’re still in a baby bull market so when we get rejected at certain price intervals I’m sure you can make money shorting.

If you continue to short into a bull market then you’re going to end up REKT especially if you think you’re going to keep doing it as we approach & pass the halving when the price is likely to go parabolic.

Stay smart, don’t get REKT.

Note - I don’t actively trade any way. imo it’s for chancers & at times morons. Buy & HODL= the key to success.

For chancers and morons? well, I like to be one of them if it makes me earn money. The fact is that I have been trading already for 2 decades, and I can guarantee you that I made most of my profits trading instead of holding. Much more profitable after i shifted from traditional markets to crypto in 2011, because there is so high volatility (aka manipulation..)
Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

You don't sound smart enough to have made a lot of money in bitcoin (you refer to it as "crypto", so right there shows your seeming lack of understanding) trading, especially if you have been betting down and asserting that bitcoin is never getting to another ATH...   You seem to NOT understand what the fuck is bitcoin.  But, hey, do what you gonna do and show us all how smartie panties you happen to be.   Wink  Teach us a lesson.   Tongue


I saw this coming *grabs the popcorn bin*  Grin
Not saying you're wrong, JJG

Quote
Grin
Still there are some valid points in his arguments, despite his self proclaimed experience (sry, just trying to be realistic here).
I'm bullish for the long run, but the run might be indeed - very long. The 2017 "bubble" wasn't healthy nor helpful to the market, imo.

I doubt that there is any need to give such a wannabe expert too much benefit of the doubt.  Yeah, of course, he could end up getting lucky and being correct, but so what?  That does not mean that he really knows anything or is making any kind of meaningful assessment, just because he says he is such a smart "shorter" and he barely has even participated in this thread in the past, so I doubt that he was "as correct" in the past as he is proclaiming to have been. Comes off as a "smarter than the rest of us" disingenuous posing dweeb to me.  But what do I know?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

...only some valid points (mainly the "long run"), and for sure it's not for the "experience"  Shocked
I'd say i'm biased to about 80% towards your opinion, to express it in a different way  Tongue
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January 13, 2020, 07:11:31 PM

There are a lot more similarities with the 2018 and 2012 corrections, more so in recent weeks and months I'm finding, .......

Seems a bit absurd to be attempting to pull out ancient charts in order to prognosticate about bitcoin's current price performance dynamics likelihoods.

In some sense, 2012 is ancient history regarding who was in bitcoin and what the fuck bitcoin was in terms of its potential impacts on society and increasingly broader awareness and even theorizing about what bitcoin was and/or its potential (as well as limitations).

How many nerds knew about bitcoin in 2012?    A handful...   How much meaningful price performance history did bitcoin have in 2012?  2 years if you are lucky?  Yeah, right, bitcoin had been conceptualized since the 2008 white paper, and theorized in some ways before the 2008 white paper, and mined since 1/3/09, but still, not even any kind of monetary uses of bitcoin until about mid-2010 and very rudimentary attempts at exchanging it prior to 2012.. sure MTGOX existed and a few other ways to acquire bitcoin, but still, who the fuck was going to wire money to Japan.. a rare fucking nerd, indeed, no?

So fuck 2012 as any kind of meaningful price dynamics comparison point...     I am not asserting that bitcoin's price performance dynamics of 2012 are completely irrelevant, but we need to be attempting to give some weight to market maturity considerations .. and yeah, maybe in the end, patterns can be identified all the way back to the beginning in which BTC had a price, but we surely have to take some of those earlier patterns with a larger grain of salt in terms of whether they present our modern situation with meaningful comparison points regarding what is likely to happen and what is possible to happen in BTC's short and medium terms.. and even longer terms.
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January 13, 2020, 07:18:33 PM

Shorting into a bull market is fine if you do it intermittently. We’re still in a baby bull market so when we get rejected at certain price intervals I’m sure you can make money shorting.

If you continue to short into a bull market then you’re going to end up REKT especially if you think you’re going to keep doing it as we approach & pass the halving when the price is likely to go parabolic.

Stay smart, don’t get REKT.

Note - I don’t actively trade any way. imo it’s for chancers & at times morons. Buy & HODL= the key to success.

For chancers and morons? well, I like to be one of them if it makes me earn money. The fact is that I have been trading already for 2 decades, and I can guarantee you that I made most of my profits trading instead of holding. Much more profitable after i shifted from traditional markets to crypto in 2011, because there is so high volatility (aka manipulation..)
Halvening will occur, market will rise, but not before another really BIG dump. By the way, I don't think BTC will never ever get close to last ATH.. then people wil start realizing money doesn't grow in trees.

You don't sound smart enough to have made a lot of money in bitcoin (you refer to it as "crypto", so right there shows your seeming lack of understanding) trading, especially if you have been betting down and asserting that bitcoin is never getting to another ATH...   You seem to NOT understand what the fuck is bitcoin.  But, hey, do what you gonna do and show us all how smartie panties you happen to be.   Wink  Teach us a lesson.   Tongue


I saw this coming *grabs the popcorn bin*  Grin
Not saying you're wrong, JJG

Quote
Grin
Still there are some valid points in his arguments, despite his self proclaimed experience (sry, just trying to be realistic here).
I'm bullish for the long run, but the run might be indeed - very long. The 2017 "bubble" wasn't healthy nor helpful to the market, imo.

I doubt that there is any need to give such a wannabe expert too much benefit of the doubt.  Yeah, of course, he could end up getting lucky and being correct, but so what?  That does not mean that he really knows anything or is making any kind of meaningful assessment, just because he says he is such a smart "shorter" and he barely has even participated in this thread in the past, so I doubt that he was "as correct" in the past as he is proclaiming to have been. Comes off as a "smarter than the rest of us" disingenuous posing dweeb to me.  But what do I know?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

...only some valid points (mainly the "long run"), and for sure it's not for the "experience"  Shocked
I'd say i'm biased to about 80% towards your opinion, to express it in a different way  Tongue


I am somewhat content that some of my behavior gravitates towards predictable... and surely, each of us needs to arrive at our own conclusions, so taking the assessments of any other member with a decently LARGE grain of salt would be reasonable and prudent.. even if that other member, such as yours truly, happens to be correct 97.2184393216% of the time, which is pretty damned high... (that last clause of my sentence happens to be joke, for clarification of the germanying-inclined speakers).
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January 13, 2020, 07:22:21 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

There are a lot more similarities with the 2018 and 2012 corrections, more so in recent weeks and months I'm finding, .......

Seems a bit absurd to be attempting to pull out ancient charts in order to prognosticate about bitcoin's current price performance dynamics likelihoods.

In some sense, 2012 is ancient history regarding who was in bitcoin and what the fuck bitcoin was in terms of its potential impacts on society and increasingly broader awareness and even theorizing about what bitcoin was and/or its potential (as well as limitations).

How many nerds knew about bitcoin in 2012?    A handful...   How much meaningful price performance history did bitcoin have in 2012?  2 years if you are lucky?  Yeah, right, bitcoin had been conceptualized since the 2008 white paper, and theorized in some ways before the 2008 white paper, and mined since 1/3/09, but still, not even any kind of monetary uses of bitcoin until about mid-2010 and very rudimentary attempts at exchanging it prior to 2012.. sure MTGOX existed and a few other ways to acquire bitcoin, but still, who the fuck was going to wire money to Japan.. a rare fucking nerd, indeed, no?

So fuck 2012 as any kind of meaningful price dynamics comparison point...     I am not asserting that bitcoin's price performance dynamics of 2012 are completely irrelevant, but we need to be attempting to give some weight to market maturity considerations .. and yeah, maybe in the end, patterns can be identified all the way back to the beginning in which BTC had a price, but we surely have to take some of those earlier patterns with a larger grain of salt in terms of whether they present our modern situation with meaningful comparison points regarding what is likely to happen and what is possible to happen in BTC's short and medium terms.. and even longer terms.

Observing a timespan of sveral years to a decade, wouldn't it be more practical to compare the BTC trends with survivors of the dotcom years?
I also see these similarities from 2012, 2014/15, 2018, 2019 when presented the right charts, with certain highlighted parameters (curves) BUT most of the time one-dimensional events ("dead crosses", mostly) are used to emphasize similarities. While if you look at additional data (curves) there are some clear differences as well.
In that manner, it really makes only doubtful sense to project past movements into future trending events.
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January 13, 2020, 07:28:43 PM


I am somewhat content that some of my behavior gravitates towards predictable... and surely, each of us needs to arrive at our own conclusions, so taking the assessments of any other member with a decently LARGE grain of salt would be reasonable and prudent.. even if that other member, such as yours truly, happens to be correct 97.2184393216% of the time, which is pretty damned high...
(that last clause of my sentence happens to be joke, for clarification of the germanying-inclined speakers).

  Wink

I try to be aware of my faults, so that 97.2184393216% came off as a joke to me as well, before even reading the fine print.
And i got quite a good sense of humor  Tongue
Still, it's a big difference if one stupidly repeats affirmations, which i'm nowhere near to (hopefully).

By the way, the popcorn clause had a good amount of jokeness as well, for clarification.  Wink
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