Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lightfoot]

WTF guys?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm no racist, but given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP...

1) I do agree that China needs a serious review of many of their internal and external policies. Things that worked great in the old days (improper food handling, no government regulations, no proper standards of hygiene that are enforced, no real quality control or oversight) seem great when populations are small and stakes are low but wind up causing serious issues when populations grow.

This is an old issue, I think of it as a "shitting in the streets" sort of problem. When there are very few people in a location, shitting in the streets is not a big issue. Once you pass a critical mass of people living in an area then doing so starts to spread major diseases. Which is why you have "governments" formed to outlaw shitting in streets and why you then have people jumping up and saying "I always shat in the streets and I will defend my right to shit in the streets to the death" or whatever. Thus forms the first political parties :-)

Note: This is not unique to China. Check out the recent spate of problems in the US with vegetables being contaminated with what appear to be human feces. This is an interesting problem. My theory is that in the old days illegal immigrants picked the vegetables and being experienced learned not to shit in the fields. When they were removed and replaced by less experienced domestic laborers these new employees did not recognize the importance of not shitting in the fields and.... shat in the fields. This can be fixed with proper training, field port-a-potties, and breaks to shit in a box however that will drive up labor costs. Such is life.


2) Anytime one says "I'm not a (whatever), BUT" the addition of the word "BUT" tends to invalidate the first part of the sentence. It's a cheap and pointless way to try and say you're not an "X" while saying something that could be construed as support of "X". Just say the statement and be done with it.

So just say "Given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP..." and be done with it. :-)

[d_eddie]

A deflationary currency in an inflationary economic model should increase in value infinitum.

Why Bitcoin would be indefinitely deflationary?   I don't understand.
It was deflationary only because its price and its market were growing. But now that almost everyone on earth has heard of it, there is no reason for growing and being deflationary anymore.

That's NOT what it means to be deflationary.
It is deflationary because the unit number is limited to 21 mil max issued and that number is already smaller and decreasing because of the losses (lost wallet, thrown away hard drive, etc.). Lost bitcoin is not being replaced. In time, total number of accessible units will be declining, hence deflationary.
However, right now it is still mildly inflationary. Currently, btc inflation is about 3.6% on a yearly basis, will drop to less than 1.8% in May.

If it's still "inflationary" as you said, it doesn't explain its growth then.

The rate of inflation matters. Compare btc's with fiat's and you'll see. Or maybe you won't.

[AlcoHoDL]

WTF guys?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm no racist, but given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP...

1) I do agree that China needs a serious review of many of their internal and external policies. Things that worked great in the old days (improper food handling, no government regulations, no proper standards of hygiene that are enforced, no real quality control or oversight) seem great when populations are small and stakes are low but wind up causing serious issues when populations grow.

This is an old issue, I think of it as a "shitting in the streets" sort of problem. When there are very few people in a location, shitting in the streets is not a big issue. Once you pass a critical mass of people living in an area then doing so starts to spread major diseases. Which is why you have "governments" formed to outlaw shitting in streets and why you then have people jumping up and saying "I always shat in the streets and I will defend my right to shit in the streets to the death" or whatever. Thus forms the first political parties :-)

Note: This is not unique to China. Check out the recent spate of problems in the US with vegetables being contaminated with what appear to be human feces. This is an interesting problem. My theory is that in the old days illegal immigrants picked the vegetables and being experienced learned not to shit in the fields. When they were removed and replaced by less experienced domestic laborers these new employees did not recognize the importance of not shitting in the fields and.... shat in the fields. This can be fixed with proper training, field port-a-potties, and breaks to shit in a box however that will drive up labor costs. Such is life.


2) Anytime one says "I'm not a (whatever), BUT" the addition of the word "BUT" tends to invalidate the first part of the sentence. It's a cheap and pointless way to try and say you're not an "X" while saying something that could be construed as support of "X". Just say the statement and be done with it.

So just say "Given what's happening and what BLB posted (live rat eating), I thing that China has got to do a thorough house clean-up and get their act together ASAP..." and be done with it. :-)

I agree with both sections of your post.

About (1), I have many Chinese friends and I know (they've told me) many things about their society and culture. You are summarizing some issues nicely in your post. We saw a similar thing happening in the Soviet Union when the race against the west was more important than human rights. We also see it in countries like China where there's poor hygiene, unsanitary living conditions, and bad practices in regard to processing, selling and eating animals that can be dangerous to humans. I hope that this serves as a wake-up call for them to sort things out, learn from it, and establish laws and regulations that help prevent such incidents from happening in the future.

As for (2), it's just me being over-analytic in what I said. There are things that someone might say that could imply something that isn't true... Kinda like the #no-homo tag we add to something that could be taken the wrong way... Hope it's now clearer.

[vapourminer]

[...] every BTC I've ever spent has come back to haunt my ass. Panic'd like a small 9-year-old girl (with screams) when I sold 13 BTC last year on

12/24/19 when BTC was $3,965.00 USD. Groan! I managed to thru dumb luck equipment sales and such to get back 4 BTC from such. But it really sucks. So yeah, its a gift, my

ability to sell at the wrong time or get 'dubious' ASIC equipment. The above wallet is NOT my hoard however, just what was emptied to add to such Hoard in 1 address.

[...]

shriek like a 9-year-old yet again). Rinse/Wash/Repeat. As you can see my 'strategy' is very sophisticated, don't ya know.

So like 5 out of 5 selling BTC at the wrong time and never to recover vs HODL mode (soothing). So yeah, I got 'issues' with BTC your merciless bitch!

heh yeah the 1st time panic mode kicks in.. welcome to the show.

ive never panic sold btc but, like you, ive sorta "panic bought" things, which is basically the same. of course in 2011-2013 or so there was a lot less confidence in btc so the ability to turn majick internetz money into real stuff was an easy sell.

ive looked up my prev mining addys when i gpu mined btc as i wanted to sign messages saying those addys were mine for various purposes if needed. cringworthy is an understatement as to the amount btc that i mined. ive got a small fraction left, and thats all that matters. its a win in my book. no regerts.

TL;DR: HODL is the best stratagy.

[bkbirge]

Good news, a random internet personality says it's unlikely that btc will fall to $6 USD. (OK, title is hilarious, but they actually mean $6k). Still, I think they are really going out on a limb here with that wild projection...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/different-type-of-shakeout-trader-says-bitcoin-unlikely-to-hit-6

“...I think we’ll have upside and then we’ll have downside again, just to the point where a number of players will just get bored and move on,” he said.

[Icygreen]

I still can't believe how few have discovered BTC. Sometimes I just like to marvel at this beautiful beast and recount how lucky we are. Staying humble while winning the lottery in slow motion may be a challenge   It won't be secret for long, enjoy and HODL

[bkbirge]

Interesting if not exactly full of details...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-research-shows-bitcoin-denominated-payments-still-a-fantasy

Transaction fees could play a part in this. The change returning to the sender in a transaction usually has a higher precision due to the need to subtract the fee, which is calculated in satoshis per byte.

The report highlights this as a possible privacy improvement. As the amount of high-precision transactions increases, it becomes more difficult to understand which part is the actual money sent, and which is the change.

[AlcoHoDL]

I still can't believe how few have discovered BTC. Sometimes I just like to marvel at this beautiful beast and recount how lucky we are. Staying humble while winning the lottery in slow motion may be a challenge   It won't be secret for long, enjoy and HODL

When I first mentioned about Bitcoin to my team leader at work (early 2017), he almost laughed at me, as did most of my colleagues. They kept joking about it and making fun of me for some time. Then they kept quiet. No mention about it. Recently some of my colleagues have talked to me in private, asking me how to buy BTC. My team leader is now doing a Master's course at the local uni, where he told me he saw ads for courses on cryptocurrency and the Blockchain...

We're all early adopters, even the "latecomers".

This thing hasn't even started.

GTCTTWW. HoDL!

[dragonvslinux]

Turning more bullish Bitcoin today  Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a test of $10K this week based on 2019 extrapolation.

The is continued analysis from "BLX Volume Profile Accumulation Zone $5,910 - $8,630 (January 21st 2020)", looking at the alternative VPVR perspective on Bitstamp.

I'm now thinking $8K could very well be the swing low. That's enough indicators telling me we'll continue to move higher mid/long-term.

[lightfoot]

As for (2), it's just me being over-analytic in what I said. There are things that someone might say that could imply something that isn't true... Kinda like the #no-homo tag we add to something that could be taken the wrong way... Hope it's now clearer.

Understood, I tend to get a little grumpy at the "but" thing.

And since I mentioned "but", #nohomo :-)

[VB1001]

Bitcoin Price Indicator That Called 2019 Bull Run Flashes Green Again

Bitcoin (BTC) plans to move higher and further squeeze bears in the short term, several price indicators suggest.

As the week begins, a group of measurements — some surprisingly accurate historically — are combining to make traders firmly bullish on BTC.

Guppy repeats April 2019 bull signal

Leading the positive signs is a useful but somewhat forgotten indicator dubbed the Guppy. This is a collection of exponential moving averages which has flashed green on the daily chart for the first time in around 300 days.

The interval is significant — the last flip from red to green for Guppy was on April 9, 2019, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rapid rise to highs of $13,800.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-indicator-that-called-2019-bull-run-flashes-green-again

https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1220820646482997248

I'm a bull one year older, but I'm still a bull.

[Lambie Slayer]

China has banned us many times. Its time for some payback and to ban them. Here is Scott Adams on a China Travel Ban preventing them to come to the US.

https://twitter.com/ViktorGodDoom/status/1221442409562660864

Every nation should ban Chinese nationals from coming into their country until they quit eating bats, Corona V is under control, and Bitcoin is fully legalized.

Trump was quick to demand a travel ban during the Ebola outbreak before he was elected but he wont ban China rn bc he wants to keep pumping the stock market till the election.

If you have a Chinatown in your city do yourself a favor and stay the fuck out for now.

Scientists are still researching a way to use nano size text walls of JJG to bore the virus to death but its in early stages thus far.

[dragonvslinux]

Bitcoin Price Indicator That Called 2019 Bull Run Flashes Green Again

Bitcoin (BTC) plans to move higher and further squeeze bears in the short term, several price indicators suggest.

As the week begins, a group of measurements — some surprisingly accurate historically — are combining to make traders firmly bullish on BTC.

Guppy repeats April 2019 bull signal

Leading the positive signs is a useful but somewhat forgotten indicator dubbed the Guppy. This is a collection of exponential moving averages which has flashed green on the daily chart for the first time in around 300 days.

The interval is significant — the last flip from red to green for Guppy was on April 9, 2019, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rapid rise to highs of $13,800.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-indicator-that-called-2019-bull-run-flashes-green-again

https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1220820646482997248

I'm a bull one year older, but I'm still a bull.

Nice share, I forget about the Guppy as it's signals are so irregular. Unless I'm mistaken, the indicator is based on MAs, similar to the MA Ribbon (which is prettier, for reference sake  )

[JayJuanGee]

[...] every BTC I've ever spent has come back to haunt my ass. Panic'd like a small 9-year-old girl (with screams) when I sold 13 BTC last year on

12/24/19 when BTC was $3,965.00 USD. Groan! I managed to thru dumb luck equipment sales and such to get back 4 BTC from such. But it really sucks. So yeah, its a gift, my

ability to sell at the wrong time or get 'dubious' ASIC equipment. The above wallet is NOT my hoard however, just what was emptied to add to such Hoard in 1 address.

[...]

shriek like a 9-year-old yet again). Rinse/Wash/Repeat. As you can see my 'strategy' is very sophisticated, don't ya know.

So like 5 out of 5 selling BTC at the wrong time and never to recover vs HODL mode (soothing). So yeah, I got 'issues' with BTC your merciless bitch!

heh yeah the 1st time panic mode kicks in.. welcome to the show.

ive never panic sold btc but, like you, ive sorta "panic bought" things, which is basically the same. of course in 2011-2013 or so there was a lot less confidence in btc so the ability to turn majick internetz money into real stuff was an easy sell.

ive looked up my prev mining addys when i gpu mined btc as i wanted to sign messages saying those addys were mine for various purposes if needed. cringworthy is an understatement as to the amount btc that i mined. ive got a small fraction left, and thats all that matters. its a win in my book. no regerts.

TL;DR: HODL is the best stratagy.

I guess you and Searing share the factor that you were earning some of your income in BTC rather than in fiat, so one thing that puts any BTC earner in the lead of a fiat earner is that s/he is forced to consider his/her HODL strategy ... or allocation regarding what is the ratio of BTC to fiat.   So, there is an implied knowledge of BTC, and a likely conscious measure regarding how much of that value needs to be treated like a longer term investment versus used for daily living expenses.

So many times, we run across situations in which people are living in a way that is way too close to their income, so they do not have any more room for investment, so if your income is in BTC, and if you are in that spending a lot of value situation, then you are likely going to have to cash out most of your BTC.

So the forced consideration regarding whether you are living well within your means or NOT becomes the bigger, question, and I would not conclude that the mere fact that you went through a lot of BTC would be a sign of your being irresponsible, especially if you are getting paid in BTC (that is mining).  That is true with any business.  You would likely be fucked, if you had a business but people made you feel guilty if you spent money that you earned from the business, because the ONLY way that you can NOT spend money from your business to keep the business going is to have another business or source of income that covers the expenses of the business.

Earning money in BTC forces the investment versus spending idea, and none of us are going to get rich from BTC if we do not first have a plan that pretty much restrains us in terms of living within our means.  Yeah, if we have a few hundred thousand of income per year, we are less likely to feel restrained in our living choices than someone who might only have $10k or $20k in income per year.

I appreciate that people with real high standards of living from the start and even high income that have been spoon fed to them from their parents or some other lucky source can also screw up these kinds of wealth preservation matters if they live beyond their income source and might not recognize the extent to which mommy/daddy is going to cut them off or other ways that their income might end up drying up, even if we might say that they won their fortunes in a lottery or some other fortunate situation such as being able to sell a successful business and to have a lot of proceed from such sale that they are able to work with.

Even landing a good job and that "good job" could end up NOT having a long term income, and I suppose some shitcoiners might have discovered some of the shitty aspects of getting involved in those shitcoins, even if some of the skills might be transferrable and they might not have squandered away their credibility, in the event that some projects might NOT help people in terms of building their credibility in the space... in order to ensure future income with skills that have been learned in the space.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@ Searing, I could have told you for free that selling 13BTC for $3xxx last year was a bad idea.
I hope you still have at least 20-25 left because that was a bad move, brother.

[JayJuanGee]

Good news, a random internet personality says it's unlikely that btc will fall to $6 USD. (OK, title is hilarious, but they actually mean $6k). Still, I think they are really going out on a limb here with that wild projection...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/different-type-of-shakeout-trader-says-bitcoin-unlikely-to-hit-6

“...I think we’ll have upside and then we’ll have downside again, just to the point where a number of players will just get bored and move on,” he said.

How would you play it bkbirge?

I am thinking that of us are gaining confidence that the bottom of this particular cycle is in.  But you are not feeling so confident?

Remember our current local bottom in mid-December was $6,424, so we do seem to be creating some distance from that $6,424 price point - but maybe we cannot really rest with confidence until we break above $10k.. and start playing around with staying above $10k?  Hard to say for sure, no?

I agree that the article seems to be suggesting UP before DOWN, while asserting that the bottom is likely in.. especially difficult odds to get any BTC below $6k into the future.
 
Personally, I don't really believe in the sentiment of the article because it seems to be trying to predict the next low points to buy BTC, and I suppose that it assumes that people already bought BTC in the recent $6ks and $7ks... which would cause the thesis of the article to make a bit more sense. 

If a person has not bought any BTC yet, then the considerations and calculations would likely end up being quite different from the persons who had already bought decent amounts of BTC in the $6ks and $7ks.. perhaps?  Perhaps? 

Another consideration would still be if a person is in the early BTC accumulation zone or if s/he has been in the bitcoin accumulation game for a while, and if the person is in the just getting started mode, then waiting for low BTC prices might not be a great strategy forward... especially since we have had a lot of dip already and a lot of BTC price consolidation for the whole last half of 2019.  You seeing our current BTC price predicament differently, bkbirge?

[JayJuanGee]

@ Searing, I could have told you for free that selling 13BTC for $3xxx last year was a bad idea.
I hope you still have at least 20-25 left because that was a bad move, brother.

He's got about 98 of them (at least after those anticipated sales of those shitcoins)... not to be too specific and to break his opsec (which happens to be around the same ballpark quantity as you, LFC)...       

Of course, he can deny every fucking word that I scribbled in this baby wall of text, and I would not be offended in respect to his likely boating accident, even though it was a fresh water accident since he happens to be kind of far away from oceans...  

Maybe I know too much? #nohomo  

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@ Searing, I could have told you for free that selling 13BTC for $3xxx last year was a bad idea.
I hope you still have at least 20-25 left because that was a bad move, brother.

He's got about 98 of them (at least after those anticipated sales of those shitcoins)... not to be too specific and to break his opsec ...  

Of course, he can deny every fucking word that I scribbled in this baby wall of text, and I would not be offended in respect to his likely boating accident, even though it was a fresh water accident since he happens to be kind of far away from oceans...  

Maybe I know too much? #nohomo  

Good!
Buy on the way down damn it.

[bitserve]

@ Searing, I could have told you for free that selling 13BTC for $3xxx last year was a bad idea.
I hope you still have at least 20-25 left because that was a bad move, brother.

He still has WAY more than that. I don't consider he did so wrong (it is easy retrospectively) selling at around $4000K in his particular situation. Otherwise he would have probably panic sell way more at the final bottom ($3.2K).

I am of the opinion that selling what he NEEDED at that time, made him a stronger hodler for the rest of his more than healthy stash. A price that had to be paid to have some peace of mind.

[JayJuanGee]

@ Searing, I could have told you for free that selling 13BTC for $3xxx last year was a bad idea.
I hope you still have at least 20-25 left because that was a bad move, brother.

He's got about 98 of them (at least after those anticipated sales of those shitcoins)... not to be too specific and to break his opsec ...  

Of course, he can deny every fucking word that I scribbled in this baby wall of text, and I would not be offended in respect to his likely boating accident, even though it was a fresh water accident since he happens to be kind of far away from oceans...  

Maybe I know too much? #nohomo  

Good!
Buy on the way down damn it.

You, LFC, responded faster than I was able to edit my post...  so I had added a few more little quips in there.. directed at you, personally...  .. I am quite the comedian (and inadvertent stalker wannabe, too)...

I personally believe that Searing is attempting to find a bit of a different balance in his future strategy... because I don't believe that he wants to really inject too much new value into BTC... but yeah, it is difficult to figure out a way to buy on the way down, if you are not really in the income earning mode that gives you extra disposable income that you choose to put into BTC when you have already a decent amount of value in BTC (including having had invested a bit more than you feel that you can afford to lose ... at least on paper)...